Climate

18 pages, 7286 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating the Efficacy of Different DEMs for Application in Flood Frequency and Risk Mapping of the Indian Coastal River Basin

by Parth Gangani, Nikunj K. Mangukiya, Darshan J. Mehta, Nitin Muttil and Upaka Rathnayake

Climate 2023, 11(5), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050114 - 22 May 2023

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2513

Abstract

Floods are among the most occurring natural hazards that cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life. In India, southern Gujarat is affected during the monsoon season, facing multiple flood events in the Damanganga basin. As the basin is one of the [...] Read more.

Floods are among the most occurring natural hazards that cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life. In India, southern Gujarat is affected during the monsoon season, facing multiple flood events in the Damanganga basin. As the basin is one of the data-scarce regions, evaluating the globally available dataset for flood risk mitigation studies in the Damanganga basin is crucial. In the present study, we compared four open-source digital elevation models (DEMs) (SRTM, Cartosat-1, ALOS-PALSAR, and TanDEMX) for hydrodynamic (HD) modeling and flood risk mapping. The simulated HD models for multiple flood events using HEC-RAS v6.3 were calibrated by adopting different roughness coefficients based on land-use land cover, observed water levels at gauge sites, and peak flood depths in the flood plain. In contrast to the previous studies on the Purna river basin (the neighboring basin of Damanganga), the present study shows that Cartosat-1 DEM provides reliable results with the observed flood depth. Furthermore, the calibrated HD model was used to determine the flood risk corresponding to 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return period floods calculated using Gumbel’s extreme value (GEV) and log-Pearson type III (LP-III) distribution techniques. Comparing the obtained peak floods corresponding to different return periods with the observed peak floods revealed that the LP-III method gives more reliable estimates of flood peaks for lower return periods, while the GEV method gives comparatively more reliable estimates for higher return period floods. The study shows that evaluating different open-source data and techniques is crucial for developing reliable flood mitigation plans with practical implications. Full article

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18 pages, 2362 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Temperature, Humidity and Air Pollution Relationships during a Period of Rainy and Dry Seasons in Lagos, West Africa

by Nwabueze Emekwuru and Obuks Ejohwomu

Climate 2023, 11(5), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050113 - 21 May 2023

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2702

Abstract

Air pollution is a concern in the West Africa region where it is known that meteorological parameters such as ambient temperature and humidity can affect the particulate matter loading through atmospheric convection and dry deposition. In this study, we extend the investigation of [...] Read more.

Air pollution is a concern in the West Africa region where it is known that meteorological parameters such as ambient temperature and humidity can affect the particulate matter loading through atmospheric convection and dry deposition. In this study, we extend the investigation of these relationships to particulate matter less than 1 µm in diameter (PM₁), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen monoxide (NO) and ozone (O₃), for a complete period of rainy and dry seasons in Lagos. Regression analysis of the results indicate that there is a negligible to weak correlation (r < 0.39) between the temperature, humidity and air pollutants during the year, except for NO₂ and O₃ which respond moderately to humidity during the dry season, an observation previously unreported. The mean monthly values for all the air pollutants are lower during the rainy season compared to the dry season, indicating a potential higher contribution of the transport of pollutants from the north-eastern desert regions and the reduction of the wet removal of particles during the dry season. The World Health Organization air quality guidelines are mostly exceeded for fine particles with diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM_2.5), supporting previous studies, as well as for the NO₂ concentration levels. As PM_2.5 contributes to at least 70% of the particulate matter pollution throughout the year, policy guidelines could be enacted for people with chronic respiratory issues during the January/February months of intense high air pollution, high temperature but low humidity values. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Weather, Events and Impacts)

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13 pages, 4229 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

by Brandon J. Fisel, Nathan E. Erickson, Colin R. Young, Ada L. Ellingworth and William J. Gutowski, Jr.

Climate 2023, 11(5), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050112 - 19 May 2023

Viewed by 1242

Abstract

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can [...] Read more.

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate)

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14 pages, 2166 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6

by Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez and Martín José Montero-Martínez

Climate 2023, 11(5), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050111 - 18 May 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1775

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to [...] Read more.

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The z-eq proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend. Full article

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18 pages, 2836 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Adapting to Changing Climate: Understanding Coastal Rural Residents’ Relocation Intention in Response to Sea Level Rise

by Richard Adade, Dukiya Jaiye, Nana Ama Browne Klutse and Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe

Climate 2023, 11(5), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050110 - 18 May 2023

Viewed by 1870

Abstract

Ex situ adaptation in the form of relocation has become inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones where other adaptation strategies become impractical or uneconomical. Although relocation of coastal low-lying communities is anticipated globally, little is still known about the factors that influence household-level [...] Read more.

Ex situ adaptation in the form of relocation has become inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones where other adaptation strategies become impractical or uneconomical. Although relocation of coastal low-lying communities is anticipated globally, little is still known about the factors that influence household-level adoption. This study draws on an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to assess the factors influencing the relocation intention of three highly vulnerable coastal rural communities in Ghana. A total of 359 household heads were randomly selected for a questionnaire survey. The study employed binary logistic regression to identify key factors that influence residents’ readiness to relocate. The results indicated that cognitive and compositional factors were more important than contextual factors in explaining the intention to relocate among coastal rural communities in Ghana. However, contextual factors mediated or attenuated the influence of cognitive and compositional factors on relocation intention. Based on the findings, this study advocates for intensive education on the effects of future sea-level rise impacts on communities as well as structural and non-structural measures to improve the socio-economic capacity of rural communities. Full article

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24 pages, 11444 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Question of Liability for Emissions from Land Development in Relation to New York State Climate Change Plan

by Elena A. Mikhailova, Lili Lin, Zhenbang Hao, Hamdi A. Zurqani, Christopher J. Post, Mark A. Schlautman, Gregory C. Post and George B. Shepherd

Climate 2023, 11(5), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050109 - 17 May 2023

Viewed by 2304

Abstract

The question of liability (responsibility) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change often ignores the liability for L&D from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the source of climate change-related impacts. New York State (NYS) recognizes its responsibility regarding climate change [...] Read more.

The question of liability (responsibility) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change often ignores the liability for L&D from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the source of climate change-related impacts. New York State (NYS) recognizes its responsibility regarding climate change as documented in the NYS Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) (Senate Bill S6599), which put forward the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all anthropogenic sources 100% over 1990 levels by the year 2050, with an incremental target of at least a 40% reduction in climate pollution by the year 2030. The current NYS carbon footprint (CF) does not include soil-based GHG emissions from land developments, preventing the state from reaching its net-zero emission goals. The current study addresses this shortcoming by quantifying the “realized” social costs of CO₂ (SC-CO₂) emissions for NYS from all land developments (12,037.5 km², midpoint 1.7 × 10¹¹ of total soil carbon (TSC) losses with midpoint $28.5B (where B = billion = 10⁹, USD)) in social costs of carbon dioxide emissions, SC-CO₂) and “new” land developments (485.2 km²) in the period from 2001 to 2016, which caused a complete loss of midpoint 6.6 × 10⁹ kg of TSC resulting in midpoint $1.1B SC-CO₂. All NYS’s counties experienced land conversions, with most of the developments, TSC losses, and SC-CO₂ occurred near the existing urban areas of New York City (NYC), Long Island, and Albany. Land conversion to developments creates additional liability by the loss of future GHG sequestration potential in developed areas. In addition, there is a substantial future liability in NYS from climate change impacts, such as the projected sea-level rises will impact 17 of NY’s 62 counties, which will cause high costs of adaptation. Incorporation of land use/land cover change (LULCC) analysis can help better quantify the CF and identify ways to reduce GHG emissions and the associated liabilities and compensations to help achieve some of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

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13 pages, 2957 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projection of Sediment Loading from Pearl River Basin, Mississippi into Gulf of Mexico under a Future Climate with Afforestation

by Ying Ouyang, Yanbo Huang, Prem B. Parajuli, Yongshan Wan, Johnny M. Grace, Peter V. Caldwell and Carl Trettin

Climate 2023, 11(5), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050108 - 17 May 2023

Viewed by 2207

Abstract

Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into [...] Read more.

Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into the northern Gulf of Mexico under a future climate with afforestation using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)-based HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System) model. Three simulation scenarios were developed in this study: (1) the past scenario for estimating the 40-year sediment load from 1981 to 2020; (2) the future scenario for projecting the 40-year sediment load from 2025 to 2064, and (3) the future afforestation scenario that was the same as the future scenario, except for converting the rangeland located in the middle section of the Pearl River watershed of the PRB into the mixed forest land cover. Simulations showed a 16% decrease in sediment load for the future scenario in comparison to the past scenario due to the decrease in future surface runoff. Over both the past and future 40 years, the monthly maximum and minimum sediment loads occurred, respectively, in April and August; whereas the seasonal sediment load followed the order: spring > winter > summer > fall. Among the four seasons, winter and spring accounted for about 86% of sediment load for both scenarios. Under the future 40-year climate conditions, a 10% reduction in annual average sediment load with afforestation was observed in comparison to without afforestation. This study provides new insights into how a future climate with afforestation would affect sediment load into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Extreme Weather on Hydrological Process, Water Quality and Ecosystem in Agricultural and Forested Watersheds under the Changing Climate)

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15 pages, 3729 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Selected Amateur Rain Gauges with Hellmann Rain Gauge Measurements

by Radosław Droździoł and Damian Absalon

Climate 2023, 11(5), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050107 - 16 May 2023

Viewed by 2025

Abstract

The paper compares precipitation measurements from the Stratus manual rain gauge from the CoCoRaHS network and two Davis Vantage Vue and Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauges with the Hellmann rain gauge. Comparative measurements were made on a specially prepared experimental plot. The [...] Read more.

The paper compares precipitation measurements from the Stratus manual rain gauge from the CoCoRaHS network and two Davis Vantage Vue and Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauges with the Hellmann rain gauge. Comparative measurements were made on a specially prepared experimental plot. The statistical calculations took into account 15 full months in the period from 1 October 2019, to 31 December 2020. In order to estimate the differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, two statistics were calculated: the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). In order to present formal and more detailed differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, analyses were performed using a linear regression model. The general form of the tested models was presented. The procedure for estimating the parameters of the models and the method of comparing the fit of the models to the data were described, and the rain gauge whose measurements were most closely related to the measurements of the Hellmann rain gauge was indicated. The study showed that the higher price of amateur rain gauges does not mean higher quality. The study showed that the Stratus rain gauge was the best at recording daily precipitation totals. The Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauge recorded daily precipitation sums with less accuracy. The Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge, despite being located on the roof, recorded similar rainfall totals as the Hellmann rain gauge. It was found that, despite the different construction and measurement methods, the precipitation measurement data from the Stratus rain gauge and the Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge are suitable both for climate monitoring and for use, after applying quality control, in NMHS networks. Full article

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19 pages, 8666 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Hydrometeorological Trends and Drought Severity in Water-Demanding Mediterranean Islands under Climate Change Conditions

by Efthymia Stathi, Aristeidis Kastridis and Dimitrios Myronidis

Climate 2023, 11(5), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050106 - 15 May 2023

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 1694

Abstract

Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for [...] Read more.

Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for mean annual temperature. These trends present several implications, especially in the Greek islands that serve as major summer tourist destinations where the population is already unable to meet their water demands. The aim of this study is to investigate both long- and short-term variations in temperature and precipitation on three Greek islands in the Mediterranean Sea (Mykonos, Naxos, and Kos). The temperature and rainfall trends, as well as their magnitudes at yearly, seasonal, and monthly time steps, were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to identify the drought periods. According to the results, precipitation slightly increased (almost stationary) in the three islands, although this rise was not statistically significant. All three islands experienced a sharp and statistically significant increase in their mean annual air temperatures. The region may experience drought episodes as a result of the high temperature increase, which would drastically reduce the amount of water, available for use due to the increased evapotranspiration. For the Mediterranean region, the necessity for a drought management strategy to stop or diminish the severity of drought episodes and their effects has grown into a matter of great concern. It is crucial to take measures and conduct relevant research in order to create the conditions for adaptation and mitigation of climate change consequences and the increased appearance of drought phenomena. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts on Hydrologic Variables across Timescales and Spatial Scale)

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27 pages, 1110 KiB

Open AccessReview

Enhancing Climate Neutrality and Resilience through Coordinated Climate Action: Review of the Synergies between Mitigation and Adaptation Actions

by Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos and Ioannis Sebos

Climate 2023, 11(5), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050105 - 10 May 2023

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3648

Abstract

Recently, reported long-term climate change consequences, such as rising temperatures and melting glaciers, have emphasized mitigation and adaptation actions. While moderating the severity of climate changes, precautionary human actions can also protect the natural environment and human societies. Furthermore, public and private collaboration [...] Read more.

Recently, reported long-term climate change consequences, such as rising temperatures and melting glaciers, have emphasized mitigation and adaptation actions. While moderating the severity of climate changes, precautionary human actions can also protect the natural environment and human societies. Furthermore, public and private collaboration can leverage resources and expertise, resulting in more impactful mitigation and adaptation actions for effective climate change responses. A coordinated and strategic approach is necessary in order to prioritize these actions across different scales, enabling us to maximize the benefits of climate action and ensure a coordinated response to this global challenge. This study examines the interplay between climate mitigation and adaptation actions in Greece and the European Union (EU). We conducted a literature search using relevant keywords. The search results were systematically approached in alignment with two pairs of thematic homologous entities, enabling the review of these literature findings to be organized and holistically investigated. In this respect, the three fields of agriculture, energy, and multi-parametric determinants of climate neutrality have emerged and been discussed. Our analysis also focused on the key implemented and planned mitigation and adaptation climate actions. Through this review, we identified the most important motives and challenges related to joint adaptation and mitigation actions. Our findings underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to climate action planning that incorporates both adaptation and mitigation measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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22 pages, 1425 KiB

Open AccessReview

Review of Vulnerability Factors Linking Climate Change and Conflict

by Takato Nagano and Takashi Sekiyama

Climate 2023, 11(5), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050104 - 09 May 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 4023

Abstract

This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, [...] Read more.

This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions. Second, two factors, access to technology (e.g., for climate change adaptation) and partially democratic states, are insufficiently studied. Third, classification criteria in the previous framework need revision for accuracy. Considering these points, this study proposes a modified vulnerability analysis framework and offers five suggestions for future research directions in climate security research. First, more qualitative case studies are needed to complement the quantitative work. Second, in particular, cases where conflict was avoided or cooperation was established in high vulnerability areas need further research. Third, further research is needed on understudied factors (e.g., access to technology and partial democracy) and on factors the conventional framework cannot explain (e.g., land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions). Fourth, no single vulnerability factor leads to conflict in isolation, but only in interaction; their connections must be studied. Finally, case studies are needed on vulnerability factors in countries and regions that have suffered from climate change but have not experienced conflict. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Review Feature Papers for Climate)

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15 pages, 3923 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Effects on River Flow in Eastern Europe: Arctic Rivers vs. Southern Rivers

by Andrey Kalugin

Climate 2023, 11(5), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050103 - 09 May 2023

Viewed by 1508

Abstract

The hydrological model ECOMAG was used to calculate runoff characteristics in the main arctic (Northern Dvina and Pechora) and southern (Don and Kuban) river basins of Eastern Europe using the data from the ensemble of global climate models under the scenario of 1.5 [...] Read more.

The hydrological model ECOMAG was used to calculate runoff characteristics in the main arctic (Northern Dvina and Pechora) and southern (Don and Kuban) river basins of Eastern Europe using the data from the ensemble of global climate models under the scenario of 1.5 and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century relative to pre-industrial values. Flow generation models were calibrated and validated based on runoff measurements at gauging stations using meteorological observation data. According to the results of numerical experiments, the relative change in river runoff in European Russia increases from north to south and from east to west under global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C. As a result, hydrological systems in milder climate were found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The assessment of flow anomalies in European Russia under the selected climate scenarios revealed the following general features: winter runoff in arctic rivers would increase, spring melt runoff in the Northern Dvina and Don would decrease, and summer–autumn runoff in all studied rivers would decrease to varying degrees. The most negative runoff anomalies are characterized in the southwestern part of the Northern Dvina basin, the middle part of the Don basin, and the lowland part of the Kuban basin, whereas positive runoff anomalies are characterized in the northern and eastern parts of the Pechora basin. Global warming of 1.5 to 2 °C would have the greatest impact on the rate of reduction of Kuban summer–autumn runoff and Don runoff during the spring flood, as well as the increase in Northern Dvina and Pechora winter runoff. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modelling for the Influences of Climate and Landscape Processes on Hydrology)

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25 pages, 8750 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of Climate Change on the Stability of the Miacher Slope, Upper Hunza, Gilgit Baltistan, Pakistan

by Mehboob ur Rashid, Waqas Ahmed, Ihtisham Islam, Petros Petrounias, Panagiota P. Giannakopoulou and Nikolaos Koukouzas

Climate 2023, 11(5), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050102 - 08 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2422

Abstract

Especially in recent years, the study of landslide phenomena is considered as very important because of the effects of climate change. The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of the slope located in Miacher Nagar village along the Hunza River [...] Read more.

Especially in recent years, the study of landslide phenomena is considered as very important because of the effects of climate change. The aim of this paper is to examine the stability of the slope located in Miacher Nagar village along the Hunza River (HR), using the Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM). The Miacher slope rises to a height of 900 m from the foot of the Hunza River and has a base angle of 50 degrees. Meta-sediments and quaternary recent glaciated deposits make up the majority of the slope’s composition. The slope movement of Miacher was first triggered in 1995, and was further triggered in 2010 and 2013. The slope was geologically, geomorphologically, geotechnically and geochemically investigated as well as modeled by Slope/w to determine the safety factor. Soil samples were analyzed for their geotechnical, geological and geomorphological properties. The Limit Equilibrium Method (LEM) was employed in this study to analyze the Factor of Safety (FOS) of the slope, based on assumptions of the Morgenstern and Price, Ordinary, Janbu and Bishop Methods, using the Slope/w software. Various factors, including pore water pressure, unit weight, cohesion, angle of internal friction and overburden, were examined by analyzing different scenarios. The findings showed that an increase in cohesion and angle of internal friction resulted in an increase in FOS, whereas an increase in unit weight and overburden caused a decrease in FOS. The influence of pore water pressure was positive to a certain extent, but a further increase led to a significant reduction in FOS. The results showed that the Miacher slope is currently stable, as all FOS values were greater than one, based on the existing strength parameters and simulated results obtained using Slope/w. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Topical Advisory Panel Collection Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Multi- and Inter-disciplinary Implications of the Relationship)

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16 pages, 3108 KiB

Open AccessArticle

First Record of the Northern Wolffish Anarhichas denticulatus Krøyer, 1845 (Anarhichadidae: Zoarcoidei: Perciformes) in the Siberian Arctic: Further Evidence of Atlantification?

by Alexei M. Orlov, Svetlana Yu. Orlova, Maxim O. Rybakov, Olga R. Emelianova and Elena V. Vedishcheva

Climate 2023, 11(5), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050101 - 06 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1636

Abstract

A single specimen of the northern wolffish Anarhichas denticulatus Krøyer, 1845, 393 mm in length, was documented for the first time in the Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea, Russia). Species identification was confirmed by an integrative taxonomic approach that included examination of external morphology [...] Read more.

A single specimen of the northern wolffish Anarhichas denticulatus Krøyer, 1845, 393 mm in length, was documented for the first time in the Siberian Arctic (Laptev Sea, Russia). Species identification was confirmed by an integrative taxonomic approach that included examination of external morphology and DNA barcoding using the COI mtDNA gene. This species is widely distributed in the North Atlantic, but records in the Arctic Ocean are limited to the Canadian and US coasts. This record might represent a significant range extension of about 7500 km for the species and may be associated with the eastward transport of a pelagic juvenile specimen from the Northeastern Atlantic to the Laptev Sea by the North Atlantic current, consistent with the hypothesis of Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean. X-ray images of the Laptev Sea specimen and photographs showing ontogenetic variations of species’ coloration are provided for reference. The Laptev Sea specimen had a more elongated shape, longer preorbital distance, and longer pectoral, dorsal, and anal fins, as well as a larger eye and wider caudal fin compared to North Atlantic samples. The size differences are likely associated with conditions experienced as a juvenile during the pelagic stage of the lifecycle. Full article

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22 pages, 3737 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Sorghum Crop Yield in the Babile District of Eastern Ethiopia

by Abdisa Alemu Tolosa, Diriba Korecha Dadi, Lemma Wogi Mirkena, Zelalem Bekeko Erena and Feyera Merga Liban

Climate 2023, 11(5), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050099 - 05 May 2023

Viewed by 2235

Abstract

The impacts of various climatic conditions, such as temperature and rainfall variabilities, are very critical and sensitive to rain-fed crop production, particularly over the water stress arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. This study was designed to evaluate the potential impact of climate [...] Read more.

The impacts of various climatic conditions, such as temperature and rainfall variabilities, are very critical and sensitive to rain-fed crop production, particularly over the water stress arid and semi-arid regions of Ethiopia. This study was designed to evaluate the potential impact of climate variability and change on sorghum grain yield in the Babile district of eastern Ethiopia. The study was conducted based on observed and model-based simulated projected rainfall and temperature obtained from the Ethiopian Meteorological Institute and General Circulation Models (GCM) used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) of the Fifth Assessment Report CMIP5) and Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). Three GCM models, namely GFDLESM2M, CanESM2, and HadGEM2-ES under RCP4.5, were considered to generate future climate projections for the near-term 21st century. Various univariate and multivariate statistical techniques were employed to compute and identify whether the impacts of climate variability and change on rain-fed sorghum crop performance were reasonably viable over the districts where grain yield is highly stable and productive under normal climate conditions. Our findings revealed that more stable and better rainfall performance from May to September, the season when sorghum crops are normally planted in the Babile district, was positively correlated, while the maximum and minimum temperatures of the season were negatively correlated with sorghum grain yield. A significant association has been detected between sorghum grain yield and its growing period rainfall, number of rainy days, and maximum and minimum temperature with multi-regression analysis. Thus, the variability of rainfall in August, June temperature, and the number of rainy days in September significantly impacted sorghum crop productivity. As a result, the multi-regression model adjusted R-squared indicated that 77% variance in annual sorghum yield performance was explained by rainfall and temperature conditions that prevailed during the crop growing period. During the past period, there was a significant increase in sorghum yields, which are projected to decline during the near term of the 21st century in the future. This revealed that declining and disturbed rainfall performance and increases in temperature are likely to reduce overall sorghum grain yield in the Babile district. We recommend that there is a need to enhance awareness for smallholder farmers on the adverse impact of climate variability and change on sorghum grain yield. In view of this, the farmers need to be geared toward employing climate-smart agriculture as a possible adaptation measure to reduce the negative impacts of climate variability and change on rain-fed crop production practices in the Babile district and other arid and semi-arid parts of eastern Ethiopia. Full article

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21 pages, 5758 KiB

Open AccessArticle

City-Wise Assessment of Suitable CMIP6 GCM in Simulating Different Urban Meteorological Variables over Major Cities in Indonesia

by Vinayak Bhanage, Han Soo Lee, Tetsu Kubota, Radyan Putra Pradana, Faiz Rohman Fajary, I Dewa Gede Arya Putra and Hideyo Nimiya

Climate 2023, 11(5), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050100 - 05 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3003

Abstract

This study evaluates the performance of 6 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for simulating temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity over 29 cities in Indonesia. Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications (MERRA-2) was considered [...] Read more.

This study evaluates the performance of 6 global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for simulating temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity over 29 cities in Indonesia. Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Applications (MERRA-2) was considered as reference data to assess the city-wise performance of surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity simulated by the CMIP6 GCMs during 1980–2014. Six statistical measures were computed in this process (mean annual, seasonal amplitude, mean annual bias, root mean square error, correlation coefficient, and standard deviation). For 29 cities, the mean annual values of surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and relative humidity obtained from the GCMs range between 290 to 302 K, 100 cm to 450 cm, 1 to 6 m/s, and 70 to 94%, respectively. The correlation coefficient between the GCMs and the surface air temperature (precipitation) reanalysis dataset ranges from 0.3 to 0.85 (−0.14 to 0.77). The correlation coefficient for wind speed (relative humidity) varies from 0.2 to 0.6 and is positive in some cases (0.2 to 0.8). Subsequently, the relative error that combines the statistical measurement results was calculated for each city and meteorological variable. Results show that for surface air temperature and precipitation, the performance of TaiESM was outstanding over the 10 or more cities. In contrast, for wind speed and relative humidity, NOR-MM and MPI-HR were the best over 7 and 19 cities, respectively. For all the meteorological variables, the performance of AWI was found to be worst over all the cities. The outcomes of this study are essential for climate-resilience planning and GCM selection while performing downscaling experiments. It will also be useful for producing updated national climate change projections for each city in Indonesia and providing new insights into the climate system. Full article

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16 pages, 14698 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Connection of Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation with Atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Eastern Europe

by Olga Sukhonos and Elena Vyshkvarkova

Climate 2023, 11(5), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050098 - 29 Apr 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1493

Abstract

Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, [...] Read more.

Recent studies show an increase in the frequency of compound extremes in air temperature and precipitation in many parts of the world, especially under dry and hot conditions. Compound extremes have a significant impact on all spheres of human activity, such as health, agriculture, and energy. Features of atmospheric circulation are closely related to the occurrence of anomalies in air temperature and precipitation. The article analyzes the relationship of atmospheric circulation modes with compound extremes that have had the greatest impact on the Atlantic–European region over the territory of Eastern Europe over the past 60 years on extreme air temperature and precipitation. Combinations of extreme temperature and humidity conditions (indices)—cold-dry (CD), cold-wet (CW), warm-dry (WD) and warm-wet (WW)—were used as compound extremes. Indices of compound extremes were calculated according to the E-OBS reanalysis data. Estimates of the relationship between two time series were carried out using standard correlation and composite analyses, as well as cross wavelet analysis. Phase relationships and time intervals for different climatic indices were different. The period of most fluctuations in the indices of compound extremes was from 4 to 12 years and was observed during 1970–2000. The coherent fluctuations in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) index occurred rather in phase, those in the time series of the CD and WD indices and the Arctic oscillation (AO) index occurred in antiphase, and those in the time series of the WD and WW indices and the Scandinavia pattern (SCAND) index occurred in antiphase. Statistically significant increase in the number of warm compound extremes was found for the northern parts of the study region in the winter season with positive NAO and AO phases. Full article

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17 pages, 1071 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Impact of CS-IPM on Key Social Welfare Aspects of Smallholder Farmers’ Livelihoods

by Haruna Sekabira, Ghislain T. Tepa-Yotto, Yusuf Kaweesa, Guy Simbeko, Manuele Tamò, Cyriaque Agboton, Osman Damba Tahidu and Tahirou Abdoulaye

Climate 2023, 11(5), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050097 - 29 Apr 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2428

Abstract

All stakeholders, especially households that depend on agriculture, must come up with every avenue available to improve farm productivity in order to raise yields due to the constraints posed by climate change on food production systems. Sufficient increments in yields will address the [...] Read more.

All stakeholders, especially households that depend on agriculture, must come up with every avenue available to improve farm productivity in order to raise yields due to the constraints posed by climate change on food production systems. Sufficient increments in yields will address the challenges of food insecurity and malnutrition among vulnerable households, especially smallholder ones. Yield increases can be achieved sustainably through the deployment of various Climate Smart Integrated Pest Management (CS-IPM) practices, including good agronomic practices. Therefore, CS-IPM practices could be essential in ensuring better household welfare, including food security and nutrition. With such impact empirically documented, appropriate policy guidance can be realized in favor of CS-IPM practices at scale, thus helping to achieve sustainable food security and food systems. However, to this end, there is yet limited evidence on the real impact of CS-IPM practices on the various core social welfare household parameters, for instance, food security, household incomes, gender roles, and nutrition, among others. We contribute to this body of literature in this paper by reviewing various empirical evidence that analyzes the impact of respective CS-IPM practices on key social welfare aspects of smallholder farm households in developing countries around the world. The review finds that CS-IPM practices do increase households’ adaptation to climate change, thus enhancing soil and crop productivity, thereby ensuring food and nutrition security, as well as increasing market participation of CS-IPM adopters, thus leading to increased household incomes, asset accumulation, and subsequently better household food and nutrition security via direct own-farm produce consumption and market purchases using income. CS-IPM practices also enhance access to climate-related information, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, conserve biodiversity, and enhance dietary diversity through improved crop and livestock varieties and also reduce variable farm production costs. Therefore, there would be multiple welfare gains if CS-IPM practices were scaled up. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts on Territories, People and Nature)

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19 pages, 6808 KiB

Open AccessArticle

High-Resolution Bioclimatic Surfaces for Southern Peru: An Approach to Climate Reality for Biological Conservation

by Gregory Anthony Pauca-Tanco, Joel Fernando Arias-Enríquez and Johana del Pilar Quispe-Turpo

Climate 2023, 11(5), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050096 - 28 Apr 2023

Viewed by 1753

Abstract

Ecological niche and species distribution models are of great importance, since their results allow for an understanding of many aspects related to the biology of the species under study, even understanding their evolutionary relationships or their response to past or future projections. In [...] Read more.

Ecological niche and species distribution models are of great importance, since their results allow for an understanding of many aspects related to the biology of the species under study, even understanding their evolutionary relationships or their response to past or future projections. In this research, climatic surfaces were produced from ground-based meteorological stations in the departments of Arequipa, Moquegua and Tacna. Temperature and precipitation data from 119 stations were obtained and homogenized; then, using geographic and orographic covariates, models were prepared so as to obtain maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation surfaces. The produced surfaces were evaluated by cross validation and compared to other models in the area. Finally, 19 bioclimatic surfaces were created. The results show general patterns for temperature and precipitation, with some particulars. Twelve layers were produced for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation, respectively, showing acceptable values for RMSEcv and MAD. Comparison with other models shows statistically significant differences. Both the climatic and bioclimatic surfaces produced were placed in a database for free access. Finally, comments are made on the importance and applications of the bioclimatic layers produced here. Full article

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23 pages, 20181 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatiotemporal Application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in the Eastern Mediterranean

by Demetrios E. Tsesmelis, Ioanna Leveidioti, Christos A. Karavitis, Kleomenis Kalogeropoulos, Constantina G. Vasilakou, Andreas Tsatsaris and Efthimios Zervas

Climate 2023, 11(5), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050095 - 28 Apr 2023

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2942

Abstract

The ever-increasing need for water, the alteration in the climate, and its observed changes over recent years have triggered a lot of research studies associated with the phenomenon of drought. Within the wider geographical region of the Mediterranean, the relevant scientific subject seems [...] Read more.

The ever-increasing need for water, the alteration in the climate, and its observed changes over recent years have triggered a lot of research studies associated with the phenomenon of drought. Within the wider geographical region of the Mediterranean, the relevant scientific subject seems to be of great interest, since it is undoubtedly related to a number of severe socio-economic consequences. This present effort focuses on the evolution of this particular phenomenon over time, within the borders of nine different countries in the Eastern Mediterranean (Athens, Greece—Europe; Constantinople, Turkey—Asia; Nicosia, Cyprus—Europe; Jerusalem, Israel—Asia; Amman, Jordan—Asia; Damascus, Syria—Asia; Beirut, Lebanon—Asia; Cairo, Egypt—Africa; and Tripoli Libya—Africa). By applying the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), examining precipitation data at the month level (January 1901 to December 2020), and utilizing the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) method, the spatio–temporal variability of drought events in the Eastern Mediterranean area was studied. In Jerusalem, long-term droughts presented a higher than usual volume, in accordance with applying the 12- and 24-month SPI, starting from the mid-20th century. Similarly, the region of Damascus presented a similar pattern to those in Beirut, Amman, and Jerusalem. An upward trend in the frequency of extreme drought events was observed for the last thirty years. The same trend seems to be true in terms of the duration of dry periods. Drought events have also been observed in the central, southern, and eastern regions of Turkey. A downward trend was observed in Cairo based on a trend analysis of its monthly precipitation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flood and Drought Hazards under Extreme Climate)

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14 pages, 3111 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Future Rainfall Characteristics over India from Large Ensemble Global Warming Experiments

by Sridhara Nayak

Climate 2023, 11(5), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050094 - 28 Apr 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2487

Abstract

We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate [...] Read more.

We investigated rainfall patterns over India for the period from 1951 to 2010 and predicted changes for the next century (2051–2100) with an assumed 4K warming from large ensemble experiments (190 members). We focused on rainfall patterns during two periods of present-day climate (1951–1980 and 1981–2010) and their projected changes for the near and far future (2051–2080 and 2081–2110). Our analysis found that the northeastern region of India and some southern regions received higher rainfall during the period of 1951–2010, which is consistent with daily observations from the Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE). In the warming climate, rainfall events in India are predicted to carry more precipitation, with the northeast and southern regions experiencing stronger rainfall events. The frequency and intensity of these events (with more than 20 mm of rainfall per day, on average) are also expected to increase. Overall, our study suggests that water-related disasters such as flooding and landslides could be much worse in India in the future due to climate warming. Full article

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15 pages, 5008 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Association between Changing Crop Types and Water Scarcity: A Case Study over West-Central India

by Sneha Kulkarni, Vinay Kumar, Vinayak Bhanage and Shirishkumar Gedam

Climate 2023, 11(5), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050093 - 27 Apr 2023

Viewed by 1754

Abstract

In recent years, semi-arid regions of India, especially Marathwada, have been continuously under the grip of drought. Increasing water scarcity and depleting ground water levels have accentuated the agrarian crisis with an increased number of farmers committing suicide in this region. To understand [...] Read more.

In recent years, semi-arid regions of India, especially Marathwada, have been continuously under the grip of drought. Increasing water scarcity and depleting ground water levels have accentuated the agrarian crisis with an increased number of farmers committing suicide in this region. To understand this issue, the present paper deals with the roots of the drought severities concerning the summer monsoon rainfall and changing crop types over the districts of the Marathwada region, India, from 1996 to 2018. In this study, drought severities were quantified using station-based rainfall, groundwater level, and crop data (10 most cultivated crops) collected from various national agencies. The increasing rainfall trends over the Latur, Beed, and Aurangabad districts depict positive signs for agriculture. In contrast, other districts were under decreasing rainfall trends, but these declining rates were not statistically significant. The alarming fall of ground water level from 4 to 5 m during the considered period was noticed over most of the region, which is a cause for concern. The significant changes in agricultural practices from low-water-requirement crops such millet (bajra), sorghum (jowar), and wheat to high-water-requirement crops such as sugarcane and cotton were observed over Beed, Latur, Osmanabad, and Parbhani. An increase in the yield of cash crops demands an augmented water supply, which is becoming responsible for the rapidly declining ground water level. Therefore, this study claims that more than rainfall vagaries, the severe impact of droughts is a reflection of changing agricultural practices and poor management of water resources. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Warming and Extreme Drought)

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17 pages, 8617 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Peatland Fire Weather Conditions in Sumatra, Indonesia

by Hiroshi Hayasaka

Climate 2023, 11(5), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050092 - 22 Apr 2023

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3074

Abstract

This study was conducted to identify the fire weather conditions needed to assess future peatland fires under climate change. Recent peatland fires in Indonesia have resulted in globally significant environmental impacts. Nevertheless, fire weather in the peatlands has not been clarified. The objective [...] Read more.

This study was conducted to identify the fire weather conditions needed to assess future peatland fires under climate change. Recent peatland fires in Indonesia have resulted in globally significant environmental impacts. Nevertheless, fire weather in the peatlands has not been clarified. The objective of this study is to determine the fire weather needed to assess future peatland fires under climate change. We analyzed fire, rainfall, temperature, humidity, and wind in the fire-prone areas in Sumatra. Analysis results using 20 years of satellite hotspot data from 2003 showed that fires in Sumatra occur every other month except December and April when rainfall intensifies. Due to relatively low rainfall, peatland fires in North Sumatra occur not only from January to March (the main dry season), but also around June and August if short-term drought happens. These fire trends may suggest that the peatlands of Sumatra are mostly in a combustible state. Analysis results using diurnal weather data showed that active peatland fires tend to occur under high air temperatures (around above 34 °C), low relative humidity (lower than 50%), and high wind speeds (higher than 18 km h⁻¹). We hope that this report will help improve future peat fire assessments and fire forecasting under rapid climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Severe Weather Disasters)

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