Climate

Open AccessArticle

Risky Business: Modeling the Future of Jamaica’s Coffee Production in a Changing Climate

by

Anne-Teresa Birthwright

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Mario Mighty

Climate 2023, 11(6), 122; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060122 - 30 May 2023

Abstract

Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on the global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in the island’s economy and also contributes to the livelihood of smallholders—the majority of whom operate the industry’s coffee farms. While climate [...] Read more.

Jamaica produces one of the most expensive coffees on the global market. The local specialty coffee industry plays a significant role in the island’s economy and also contributes to the livelihood of smallholders—the majority of whom operate the industry’s coffee farms. While climate model projections suggest that Jamaica will continue to experience a warming and drying trend, no study has assessed the future impacts of changing climatic patterns on local coffee-growing areas. This research developed a number of geospatial processing models within the ArcMap software platform to model current coffee suitability and future crop suitability across three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) and three future time periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100). The results validated current locations of coffee production and revealed that there was an observable decrease in coffee suitability across the island, across all SSP scenarios and time periods under study. Most growing regions were projected to experience declines in production suitability of at least 10%, with the most severe changes occurring in non-Blue Mountain regions under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Implications of this projected suitability change range from decreased production volumes, increased price volatility, and disruption to market operations and livelihood incomes. The paper’s findings offer stakeholders within Jamaica’s coffee industry the opportunity to develop targeted adaptation planning initiatives, and point to the need for concrete decisions concerning future investment pathways for the industry. It also provides insight into other tropical coffee-growing regions around the world that are facing the challenges associated with climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Adaptation Ways for Smallholder Farmers)

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Open AccessArticle

Identifying and Attributing Regime Shifts in Australian Fire Climates

by

Roger N. Jones

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James H. Ricketts

Climate 2023, 11(6), 121; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060121 - 28 May 2023

Abstract

This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-quality regional climate averages against the station-averaged annual Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for Victoria, Australia. [...] Read more.

This paper introduces and analyzes fire climate regimes, steady-state conditions that govern the behavior of fire weather. A simple model representing fire climate was constructed by regressing high-quality regional climate averages against the station-averaged annual Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) for Victoria, Australia. Four FFD indices for fire years 1957–2021 were produced for 10 regions. Regions with even coverage of station-averaged total annual FFDI (ΣFFDI) from 1971–2016 exceeded Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies of 0.84, validating its widespread application. Data were analyzed for shifts in mean, revealing regime shifts that occurred between 1996 and 2003 in the southern states and 2012–2013 in Queensland. ΣFFDI shifted up by ~25% in SE Australia to 8% in the west; by approximately one-third in the SE to 7% in the west for days above high fire danger; by approximately half in the SE to 11% in the west for days above very high, with a greater increase in Tasmania; and by approximately three-quarters in the SE to 9% in the west for days above severe FFDI. Attribution of the causes identified regime shifts in the fire season maximum temperature and a 3 p.m. relative humidity, with changing drought factor and rainfall patterns shaping the results. The 1:10 fire season between Regimes 1 and 2 saw a three to seven times increase with an average of five. For the 1:20 fire season, there was an increase of 2 to 14 times with an average of 8. Similar timing between shifts in the Australian FFDI and the global fire season length suggests that these changes may be global in extent. A trend analysis will substantially underestimate these changes in risk. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Recent Climate Change Impacts in Australia)

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Open AccessArticle

Performance Evaluation of TerraClimate Monthly Rainfall Data after Bias Correction in the Fes-Meknes Region (Morocco)

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Climate 2023, 11(6), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060120 - 27 May 2023

Abstract

Morocco’s meteorological observation network is quite old, but the spatial coverage is insufficient to conduct studies over large areas, especially in mountainous regions, such as the Fez-Meknes region, where spatio-temporal variability in precipitation depends on altitude and exposure. The lack of station data [...] Read more.

Morocco’s meteorological observation network is quite old, but the spatial coverage is insufficient to conduct studies over large areas, especially in mountainous regions, such as the Fez-Meknes region, where spatio-temporal variability in precipitation depends on altitude and exposure. The lack of station data is the main reason that led us to look for alternative solutions. TerraClimate (TC) reanalysis data were used to remedy this situation. However, reanalysis data are usually affected by a bias in the raw values. Bias correction methods generally involve a procedure in which a “transfer function” between the simulated and corrected variable is derived from the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of these variables. We explore the possibilities of using TC precipitation data for the Fez-Meknes administrative region (Morocco). This examination is of great interest for the region whose mountain peaks constitute the most important reservoir of water in the country, where TC data can overcome the difficulty of estimating precipitation in mountainous regions where the spatio-temporal variability is very high. Thus, we carried out the validation of TC data on stations belonging to plain and mountain topographic units and having different bioclimatic and topographic characteristics. Overall, the results demonstrate that the TC data capture the altitudinal gradient of precipitation and the average rainfall pattern, with a maximum in November and a minimum in July, which is a characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. However, we identified quasi-systematic biases, negative in mountainous regions and positive in lowland stations. In addition, summer precipitation is overestimated in mountain regions. It is considered that this bias comes from the imperfect representation of the physical processes of rainfall formation by the models. To reduce this bias, we applied the quantile mapping (QM) method. After correction using five QM variants, a significant improvement was observed for all stations and most months, except for May. Validation statistics for the five bias correction variants do not indicate the superiority of any particular method in terms of robustness. Indeed, results indicate that most QM methods lead to a significant improvement in TC data after monthly bias corrections. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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Open AccessArticle

A Relationship between Climate Finance and Climate Risk: Evidence from the South Asian Region

by

Md. Abdul Kaium Masud

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Juichiro Sahara

and

Md. Humayun Kabir

Climate 2023, 11(6), 119; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060119 - 26 May 2023

Abstract

South Asia is the most vulnerable region in the context of global warming, climate change, and climate risk. Climate finance is the most useful tool for combating climate challenges worldwide. The study explores the present picture of climate finance in South Asian (SA) [...] Read more.

South Asia is the most vulnerable region in the context of global warming, climate change, and climate risk. Climate finance is the most useful tool for combating climate challenges worldwide. The study explores the present picture of climate finance in South Asian (SA) countries. The study uses multilateral development bank (MDB), Green Climate Fund (GCF), and Germanwatch supplied data from 2011 to 2021. Under the theoretical lens of institutional capacity development, the study attempts to correlate climate finance and climate risk. The study indicates an increasing trend of MBDs’ and the GCF’s climate finance in many countries worldwide. The study finds that MDBs’ total global climate finance is USD 446,977 million, while the SA region has received USD 59,301 million since 2011. It also reports that MDBs provide 77% and 23% of the money to the mitigation and adaptation areas. Moreover, the study reports that, after COVID-19, MDBs substantially increased the amount of global climate financing, but this increase was not seen in the SA region. Our climate risk data indicate that most of the SA countries are highly long-term climate risky and lose, on average, 0.378% of GDP. The correlation matrix finds a negative and significant correlation between climate finance and long-term and yearly climate risk. The study identifies that the region’s climate financing flow of money is not rationally distributed based on the short-run and long-run climate risks. The study presumes that more climate finance would be the most effective mechanism to mitigate climate risk. Therefore, SA region leadership drastically requires a holistic framework to address the prevailing climate problems and to ensure regional coordination and cooperation toward climate finance and policies. The research findings have significant implications for climate policy and climate finance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Economics)

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Open AccessReview

Changing Water Cycle under a Warming Climate: Tendencies in the Carpathian Basin

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Climate 2023, 11(6), 118; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060118 - 26 May 2023

Abstract

In this mini-review, we present evidence from the vast literature that one essential part of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system that makes life on Earth possible, the water cycle, is exhibiting changes along with many attributes of the global climate. Our starting point is [...] Read more.

In this mini-review, we present evidence from the vast literature that one essential part of the coupled atmosphere–ocean system that makes life on Earth possible, the water cycle, is exhibiting changes along with many attributes of the global climate. Our starting point is the 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC, which appeared in 2021, where the almost monograph-size Chapter 8, with over 1800 references, is devoted entirely to the water cycle. In addition to listing the main observations on the Earth globally, we focus on Europe, particularly on the Carpathian (Pannonian) Basin. We collect plausible explanations of the possible causes behind an observably accelerating and intensifying water cycle. Some authors still suggest that changes in the natural boundary conditions, such as solar irradiance or Earth’s orbital parameters, explain the observations. In contrast, most authors attribute such changes to the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations since the industrial revolution. The hypothesis being tested, and which has already yielded convincing affirmative answers, is that the hydrological cycle intensifies due to anthropogenic impacts. The Carpathian Basin, a part of the Danube watershed, including the sub-basin of the Tisza River, is no exception to these changes. The region is experiencing multiple drivers contributing to alterations in the water cycle, including increasing temperatures, shifting precipitation regimes, and various human impacts. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Effects of Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Events on Daily CO₂ Fluxes in the Tropics

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Climate 2023, 11(6), 117; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060117 - 25 May 2023

Abstract

The effects of anomalous weather conditions (such as extreme temperatures and precipitation) on CO₂ flux variability in different tropical ecosystems were assessed using available reanalysis data, as well as information about daily net CO₂ fluxes from the global FLUXNET database. A [...] Read more.

The effects of anomalous weather conditions (such as extreme temperatures and precipitation) on CO₂ flux variability in different tropical ecosystems were assessed using available reanalysis data, as well as information about daily net CO₂ fluxes from the global FLUXNET database. A working hypothesis of the study suggests that the response of tropical vegetation can differ depending on local geographical conditions and intensity of temperature and precipitation anomalies. The results highlighted the large diversity of CO₂ flux responses to the fluctuations of temperature and precipitation in tropical ecosystems that may differ significantly from some previously documented relationships (e.g., higher CO₂ emission under the drier and hotter weather, higher CO₂ uptake under colder and wetter weather conditions). They showed that heavy precipitation mainly leads to the strong intensification of mean daily CO₂ release into the atmosphere at almost all stations and in all types of study biomes. For the majority of considered tropical ecosystems, the intensification of daily CO₂ emission during cold and wet weather was found, whereas the ecosystems were predominantly served as CO₂ sinks from the atmosphere under hot/dry conditions. Such disparate responses suggested that positive and negative temperature and precipitation anomalies influence Gross Primary Production (GPP) and Ecosystem Respiration (ER) rates differently that may result in various responses of Net Ecosystem Exchanges (NEE) of CO₂ to external impacts. Their responses may also depend on various local biotic and abiotic factors, including plant canopy age and structure, plant biodiversity and plasticity, soil organic carbon and water availability, surface topography, solar radiation fluctuation, etc. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Topical Advisory Panel Collection Series: Climate Change and Sustainable Development: Multi- and Inter-disciplinary Implications of the Relationship)

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Open AccessArticle

De-Sealing Reverses Habitat Decay More Than Increasing Groundcover Vegetation

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Virginia Thompson Couch

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Climate 2023, 11(6), 116; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060116 - 25 May 2023

Abstract

Modeling ecosystem services is a growing trend in scientific research, and Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) are increasingly used by land-use planners and environmental designers to achieve improved adaptation to climate change and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change. Predictions of ecological benefits [...] Read more.

Modeling ecosystem services is a growing trend in scientific research, and Nature-based Solutions (NbSs) are increasingly used by land-use planners and environmental designers to achieve improved adaptation to climate change and mitigation of the negative effects of climate change. Predictions of ecological benefits of NbSs are needed early in design to support decision making. In this study, we used ecological analysis to predict the benefits of two NbSs applied to a university masterplan and adjusted our preliminary design strategy according to the first modeling results. Our Area of Interest was the IZTECH campus, which is located in a rural area of the eastern Mediterranean region (Izmir/Turkey). A primary design goal was to improve habitat quality by revitalizing soil. Customized analysis of the Baseline Condition and two NbSs scenarios was achieved by using local values obtained from a high-resolution photogrammetric scan of the catchment to produce flow accumulation and habitat quality indexes. Results indicate that anthropogenic features are the primary cause of habitat decay and that decreasing imperviousness reduces habitat decay significantly more than adding vegetation. This study creates a method of supporting sustainability goals by quickly testing alternative NbSs. The main innovation is demonstrating that early approximation of the ecological benefits of NbSs can inform preliminary design strategy. The proposed model may be calibrated to address specific environmental challenges of a given location and test other forms of NbSs. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Climate Change Knowledge and Perception among Farming Households in Nigeria

by

Mustapha Yakubu Madaki

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Steffen Muench

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Harald Kaechele

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Miroslava Bavorova

Climate 2023, 11(6), 115; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060115 - 24 May 2023

Abstract

Nigeria is committed to achieving a 20% unconditional and 45% conditional reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 through a strong focus on awareness of and preparedness for climate change impacts via the mobilization of local communities for climate change mitigation actions. As land [...] Read more.

Nigeria is committed to achieving a 20% unconditional and 45% conditional reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 through a strong focus on awareness of and preparedness for climate change impacts via the mobilization of local communities for climate change mitigation actions. As land cover changes and forestry contribute 38% and agriculture contributes 13% of the country’s GHGs, farmers are among the stakeholders to be aware of and prepare for climate change mitigations and adaptations. This study assessed the knowledge of agriculturally related practices associated with climate change and its relation to climate change perception. One thousand and eighty (1080) smallholder farmers were interviewed across six agroecological zones (AEZs) of Nigeria using a structured questionnaire. The results revealed that most farmers know that deforestation and land clearance by bush burning contributes to climate change. However, many farmers did not know that methane emissions from livestock (enteric fermentation) can cause climate change. Our results further show that the farmers’ perception of climate change is associated with climate change knowledge. Factors affecting the climate change knowledge of farmers include information received from government extension services, environmental NGOs, and radio, as well as experiencing extreme weather events. Farmers of dry AEZs were more aware and knowledgeable of the agricultural practices contributing to the changing environment. Increased exposure to climate change events thus appears to elevate the knowledge on the topic. Using government services, environmental NGOs, and radio to disseminate climate change information will help further in guiding and shaping farmers’ perceptions towards scientific findings for appropriate actions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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Open AccessArticle

Evaluating the Efficacy of Different DEMs for Application in Flood Frequency and Risk Mapping of the Indian Coastal River Basin

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Climate 2023, 11(5), 114; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050114 - 22 May 2023

Abstract

Floods are among the most occurring natural hazards that cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life. In India, southern Gujarat is affected during the monsoon season, facing multiple flood events in the Damanganga basin. As the basin is one of the [...] Read more.

Floods are among the most occurring natural hazards that cause severe damage to infrastructure and loss of life. In India, southern Gujarat is affected during the monsoon season, facing multiple flood events in the Damanganga basin. As the basin is one of the data-scarce regions, evaluating the globally available dataset for flood risk mitigation studies in the Damanganga basin is crucial. In the present study, we compared four open-source digital elevation models (DEMs) (SRTM, Cartosat-1, ALOS-PALSAR, and TanDEMX) for hydrodynamic (HD) modeling and flood risk mapping. The simulated HD models for multiple flood events using HEC-RAS v6.3 were calibrated by adopting different roughness coefficients based on land-use land cover, observed water levels at gauge sites, and peak flood depths in the flood plain. In contrast to the previous studies on the Purna river basin (the neighboring basin of Damanganga), the present study shows that Cartosat-1 DEM provides reliable results with the observed flood depth. Furthermore, the calibrated HD model was used to determine the flood risk corresponding to 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return period floods calculated using Gumbel’s extreme value (GEV) and log-Pearson type III (LP-III) distribution techniques. Comparing the obtained peak floods corresponding to different return periods with the observed peak floods revealed that the LP-III method gives more reliable estimates of flood peaks for lower return periods, while the GEV method gives comparatively more reliable estimates for higher return period floods. The study shows that evaluating different open-source data and techniques is crucial for developing reliable flood mitigation plans with practical implications. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Temperature, Humidity and Air Pollution Relationships during a Period of Rainy and Dry Seasons in Lagos, West Africa

by

Nwabueze Emekwuru

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Obuks Ejohwomu

Climate 2023, 11(5), 113; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050113 - 21 May 2023

Abstract

Air pollution is a concern in the West Africa region where it is known that meteorological parameters such as ambient temperature and humidity can affect the particulate matter loading through atmospheric convection and dry deposition. In this study, we extend the investigation of [...] Read more.

Air pollution is a concern in the West Africa region where it is known that meteorological parameters such as ambient temperature and humidity can affect the particulate matter loading through atmospheric convection and dry deposition. In this study, we extend the investigation of these relationships to particulate matter less than 1 µm in diameter (PM₁), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), nitrogen monoxide (NO) and ozone (O₃), for a complete period of rainy and dry seasons in Lagos. Regression analysis of the results indicate that there is a negligible to weak correlation (r < 0.39) between the temperature, humidity and air pollutants during the year, except for NO₂ and O₃ which respond moderately to humidity during the dry season, an observation previously unreported. The mean monthly values for all the air pollutants are lower during the rainy season compared to the dry season, indicating a potential higher contribution of the transport of pollutants from the north-eastern desert regions and the reduction of the wet removal of particles during the dry season. The World Health Organization air quality guidelines are mostly exceeded for fine particles with diameters less than 2.5 µm (PM_2.5), supporting previous studies, as well as for the NO₂ concentration levels. As PM_2.5 contributes to at least 70% of the particulate matter pollution throughout the year, policy guidelines could be enacted for people with chronic respiratory issues during the January/February months of intense high air pollution, high temperature but low humidity values. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Weather, Events and Impacts)

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Open AccessArticle

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

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William J. Gutowski, Jr.

Climate 2023, 11(5), 112; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050112 - 19 May 2023

Abstract

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can [...] Read more.

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Precipitation in a Changing Climate)

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Open AccessArticle

Historical and Projected Trends of the Mean Surface Temperature in South-Southeast Mexico Using ERA5 and CMIP6

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Mercedes Andrade-Velázquez

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Martín José Montero-Martínez

Climate 2023, 11(5), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050111 - 18 May 2023

Abstract

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to [...] Read more.

This study aimed to determine the mean temperature trends in the south-southeast region of Mexico during the historical period of 1980–2014, as well as during the future periods of 2021–2040, 2041–2060, and 2081–2100, as recommended by the IPCC. Additionally, the study sought to identify the climate change scenario that is most closely aligned with the socio-environmental conditions of the south-southeast zone of Mexico and that has the greatest impact on the region’s average temperature. The downscaling method of bias correction was conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, and an analysis of historical trends was performed for the period 1980–2014 with ERA5 and four CMIP6 models (CNRM-ESM2-1, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC6, and MRI-ESM2-0). This process was extended to future projections. The models indicated temperature differences of less than 0.5 °C with respect to ERA5, in agreement with other studies. Additionally, the current study calculated future trends for the south-southeast region using three of the CMIP6 scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP4-6.0, and SSP5-8.5). The z-eq proposal was used to compare the slopes, enabling us to determine which of the three scenarios corresponded to the historical trend, assuming identical socio-environmental conditions. The SSP4-6.0 scenario was found to correspond to the historical trend. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Adapting to Changing Climate: Understanding Coastal Rural Residents’ Relocation Intention in Response to Sea Level Rise

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Richard Adade

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Dukiya Jaiye

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Nana Ama Browne Klutse

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Appollonia Aimiosino Okhimamhe

Climate 2023, 11(5), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050110 - 18 May 2023

Abstract

Ex situ adaptation in the form of relocation has become inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones where other adaptation strategies become impractical or uneconomical. Although relocation of coastal low-lying communities is anticipated globally, little is still known about the factors that influence household-level [...] Read more.

Ex situ adaptation in the form of relocation has become inevitable in some low-lying coastal zones where other adaptation strategies become impractical or uneconomical. Although relocation of coastal low-lying communities is anticipated globally, little is still known about the factors that influence household-level adoption. This study draws on an extended version of Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) to assess the factors influencing the relocation intention of three highly vulnerable coastal rural communities in Ghana. A total of 359 household heads were randomly selected for a questionnaire survey. The study employed binary logistic regression to identify key factors that influence residents’ readiness to relocate. The results indicated that cognitive and compositional factors were more important than contextual factors in explaining the intention to relocate among coastal rural communities in Ghana. However, contextual factors mediated or attenuated the influence of cognitive and compositional factors on relocation intention. Based on the findings, this study advocates for intensive education on the effects of future sea-level rise impacts on communities as well as structural and non-structural measures to improve the socio-economic capacity of rural communities. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Question of Liability for Emissions from Land Development in Relation to New York State Climate Change Plan

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Climate 2023, 11(5), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050109 - 17 May 2023

Abstract

The question of liability (responsibility) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change often ignores the liability for L&D from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the source of climate change-related impacts. New York State (NYS) recognizes its responsibility regarding climate change [...] Read more.

The question of liability (responsibility) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change often ignores the liability for L&D from greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions which are the source of climate change-related impacts. New York State (NYS) recognizes its responsibility regarding climate change as documented in the NYS Climate Leadership and Community Protection Act (CLCPA) (Senate Bill S6599), which put forward the goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions from all anthropogenic sources 100% over 1990 levels by the year 2050, with an incremental target of at least a 40% reduction in climate pollution by the year 2030. The current NYS carbon footprint (CF) does not include soil-based GHG emissions from land developments, preventing the state from reaching its net-zero emission goals. The current study addresses this shortcoming by quantifying the “realized” social costs of CO₂ (SC-CO₂) emissions for NYS from all land developments (12,037.5 km², midpoint 1.7 × 10¹¹ of total soil carbon (TSC) losses with midpoint $28.5B (where B = billion = 10⁹, USD)) in social costs of carbon dioxide emissions, SC-CO₂) and “new” land developments (485.2 km²) in the period from 2001 to 2016, which caused a complete loss of midpoint 6.6 × 10⁹ kg of TSC resulting in midpoint $1.1B SC-CO₂. All NYS’s counties experienced land conversions, with most of the developments, TSC losses, and SC-CO₂ occurred near the existing urban areas of New York City (NYC), Long Island, and Albany. Land conversion to developments creates additional liability by the loss of future GHG sequestration potential in developed areas. In addition, there is a substantial future liability in NYS from climate change impacts, such as the projected sea-level rises will impact 17 of NY’s 62 counties, which will cause high costs of adaptation. Incorporation of land use/land cover change (LULCC) analysis can help better quantify the CF and identify ways to reduce GHG emissions and the associated liabilities and compensations to help achieve some of the United Nations (UN) Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Projection of Sediment Loading from Pearl River Basin, Mississippi into Gulf of Mexico under a Future Climate with Afforestation

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Climate 2023, 11(5), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050108 - 17 May 2023

Abstract

Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into [...] Read more.

Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into the northern Gulf of Mexico under a future climate with afforestation using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)-based HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System) model. Three simulation scenarios were developed in this study: (1) the past scenario for estimating the 40-year sediment load from 1981 to 2020; (2) the future scenario for projecting the 40-year sediment load from 2025 to 2064, and (3) the future afforestation scenario that was the same as the future scenario, except for converting the rangeland located in the middle section of the Pearl River watershed of the PRB into the mixed forest land cover. Simulations showed a 16% decrease in sediment load for the future scenario in comparison to the past scenario due to the decrease in future surface runoff. Over both the past and future 40 years, the monthly maximum and minimum sediment loads occurred, respectively, in April and August; whereas the seasonal sediment load followed the order: spring > winter > summer > fall. Among the four seasons, winter and spring accounted for about 86% of sediment load for both scenarios. Under the future 40-year climate conditions, a 10% reduction in annual average sediment load with afforestation was observed in comparison to without afforestation. This study provides new insights into how a future climate with afforestation would affect sediment load into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Impacts of Extreme Weather on Hydrological Process, Water Quality and Ecosystem in Agricultural and Forested Watersheds under the Changing Climate)

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Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of Selected Amateur Rain Gauges with Hellmann Rain Gauge Measurements

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Radosław Droździoł

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Damian Absalon

Climate 2023, 11(5), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050107 - 16 May 2023

Abstract

The paper compares precipitation measurements from the Stratus manual rain gauge from the CoCoRaHS network and two Davis Vantage Vue and Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauges with the Hellmann rain gauge. Comparative measurements were made on a specially prepared experimental plot. The [...] Read more.

The paper compares precipitation measurements from the Stratus manual rain gauge from the CoCoRaHS network and two Davis Vantage Vue and Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauges with the Hellmann rain gauge. Comparative measurements were made on a specially prepared experimental plot. The statistical calculations took into account 15 full months in the period from 1 October 2019, to 31 December 2020. In order to estimate the differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, two statistics were calculated: the mean square error (MSE) and the mean absolute error (MAE). In order to present formal and more detailed differences in measurements between amateur rain gauges and the Hellmann rain gauge, analyses were performed using a linear regression model. The general form of the tested models was presented. The procedure for estimating the parameters of the models and the method of comparing the fit of the models to the data were described, and the rain gauge whose measurements were most closely related to the measurements of the Hellmann rain gauge was indicated. The study showed that the higher price of amateur rain gauges does not mean higher quality. The study showed that the Stratus rain gauge was the best at recording daily precipitation totals. The Davis Vantage Pro 2A rain gauge recorded daily precipitation sums with less accuracy. The Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge, despite being located on the roof, recorded similar rainfall totals as the Hellmann rain gauge. It was found that, despite the different construction and measurement methods, the precipitation measurement data from the Stratus rain gauge and the Davis Vantage Vue rain gauge are suitable both for climate monitoring and for use, after applying quality control, in NMHS networks. Full article

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Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Hydrometeorological Trends and Drought Severity in Water-Demanding Mediterranean Islands under Climate Change Conditions

by

Efthymia Stathi

,

Aristeidis Kastridis

and

Dimitrios Myronidis

Climate 2023, 11(5), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050106 - 15 May 2023

Abstract

Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for [...] Read more.

Global climate change has emerged as a problem in recent years, and its effects will likely continue to increase in the future. Several scientific studies conducted in the Mediterranean region have demonstrated relatively stationary trends for annual precipitation and significant upward trends for mean annual temperature. These trends present several implications, especially in the Greek islands that serve as major summer tourist destinations where the population is already unable to meet their water demands. The aim of this study is to investigate both long- and short-term variations in temperature and precipitation on three Greek islands in the Mediterranean Sea (Mykonos, Naxos, and Kos). The temperature and rainfall trends, as well as their magnitudes at yearly, seasonal, and monthly time steps, were determined using the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was employed to identify the drought periods. According to the results, precipitation slightly increased (almost stationary) in the three islands, although this rise was not statistically significant. All three islands experienced a sharp and statistically significant increase in their mean annual air temperatures. The region may experience drought episodes as a result of the high temperature increase, which would drastically reduce the amount of water, available for use due to the increased evapotranspiration. For the Mediterranean region, the necessity for a drought management strategy to stop or diminish the severity of drought episodes and their effects has grown into a matter of great concern. It is crucial to take measures and conduct relevant research in order to create the conditions for adaptation and mitigation of climate change consequences and the increased appearance of drought phenomena. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change Impacts on Hydrologic Variables across Timescales and Spatial Scale)

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Open AccessReview

Enhancing Climate Neutrality and Resilience through Coordinated Climate Action: Review of the Synergies between Mitigation and Adaptation Actions

by

Grigorios L. Kyriakopoulos

and

Ioannis Sebos

Climate 2023, 11(5), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050105 - 10 May 2023

Cited by 1

Abstract

Recently, reported long-term climate change consequences, such as rising temperatures and melting glaciers, have emphasized mitigation and adaptation actions. While moderating the severity of climate changes, precautionary human actions can also protect the natural environment and human societies. Furthermore, public and private collaboration [...] Read more.

Recently, reported long-term climate change consequences, such as rising temperatures and melting glaciers, have emphasized mitigation and adaptation actions. While moderating the severity of climate changes, precautionary human actions can also protect the natural environment and human societies. Furthermore, public and private collaboration can leverage resources and expertise, resulting in more impactful mitigation and adaptation actions for effective climate change responses. A coordinated and strategic approach is necessary in order to prioritize these actions across different scales, enabling us to maximize the benefits of climate action and ensure a coordinated response to this global challenge. This study examines the interplay between climate mitigation and adaptation actions in Greece and the European Union (EU). We conducted a literature search using relevant keywords. The search results were systematically approached in alignment with two pairs of thematic homologous entities, enabling the review of these literature findings to be organized and holistically investigated. In this respect, the three fields of agriculture, energy, and multi-parametric determinants of climate neutrality have emerged and been discussed. Our analysis also focused on the key implemented and planned mitigation and adaptation climate actions. Through this review, we identified the most important motives and challenges related to joint adaptation and mitigation actions. Our findings underscore the need for a comprehensive approach to climate action planning that incorporates both adaptation and mitigation measures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Collection Adaptation and Mitigation Practices and Frameworks)

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Open AccessReview

Review of Vulnerability Factors Linking Climate Change and Conflict

by

Takato Nagano

and

Takashi Sekiyama

Climate 2023, 11(5), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11050104 - 09 May 2023

Abstract

This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, [...] Read more.

This systematic literature review gathers societal vulnerability factors linking climate change and conflict from 53 existing studies. The findings reveal three main points. First, four relevant factors are missing from a previous vulnerability analysis framework proposed by Pearson and Newman: land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions. Second, two factors, access to technology (e.g., for climate change adaptation) and partially democratic states, are insufficiently studied. Third, classification criteria in the previous framework need revision for accuracy. Considering these points, this study proposes a modified vulnerability analysis framework and offers five suggestions for future research directions in climate security research. First, more qualitative case studies are needed to complement the quantitative work. Second, in particular, cases where conflict was avoided or cooperation was established in high vulnerability areas need further research. Third, further research is needed on understudied factors (e.g., access to technology and partial democracy) and on factors the conventional framework cannot explain (e.g., land degradation/land cover, gender, customs, and geographical conditions). Fourth, no single vulnerability factor leads to conflict in isolation, but only in interaction; their connections must be studied. Finally, case studies are needed on vulnerability factors in countries and regions that have suffered from climate change but have not experienced conflict. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Review Feature Papers for Climate)

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