Hydrology and Water Resources Management

Journal Name	Impact Factor	CiteScore	Launched Year	First Decision (median)	APC
Atmosphere atmosphere	3.110	3.7	2010	14.7 Days	2000 CHF	Submit
Hydrology hydrology	-	3.6	2014	14 Days	1600 CHF	Submit
Remote Sensing remotesensing	5.349	7.4	2009	19.7 Days	2500 CHF	Submit
Sustainability sustainability	3.889	5.0	2009	17.7 Days	2200 CHF	Submit
Water water	3.530	4.8	2009	17.6 Days	2200 CHF	Submit

Open AccessArticle

Study on the Water Level–Discharge Relationship Changes in Dongting Lake Outlet Section over 70 Years and the Impact of Yangtze River Backwater Effect

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Water 2023, 15(11), 2057; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15112057 - 29 May 2023

Viewed by 219

Abstract

The hydrological characteristics of the river–lake connecting section are determined by their interaction and studying them can help to understand the changing relationship between these two water bodies over time. The Lujiao–Luosan section is the connecting section of Dongting Lake and the Yangtze [...] Read more.

The hydrological characteristics of the river–lake connecting section are determined by their interaction and studying them can help to understand the changing relationship between these two water bodies over time. The Lujiao–Luosan section is the connecting section of Dongting Lake and the Yangtze River, and the hydrological data for this section over the past 70 years has been analyzed. It has been found that the lowest water level is consistently rising at the same discharge at Chenglingji station, which is the joint point of Dongting Lake and the Yangtze River. While this could alleviate the drought situation in the Dongting Lake area during dry seasons, it could pose a more significant flood-control challenge during high water levels in the flood season. The water surface slope shows a decreasing trend especially during the dry season, except for the high flood period (July–September), which indicates that the water slope in the connecting section of Dongting Lake has become flatter. The backwater effect of the Yangtze River on Dongting Lake becomes increasingly stronger as the water surface slope difference between the Chenglingji–Luoshan section and the Lujiao–Chenglingji section changes from negative to positive between January and April. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Attribution of Extreme Drought Events and Associated Physical Drivers across Southwest China Using the Budyko Framework

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Remote Sens. 2023, 15(11), 2702; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15112702 - 23 May 2023

Viewed by 384

Abstract

Drought is a meteorological phenomenon that negatively impacts agricultural production. In recent years, southwest China has frequently experienced agricultural droughts; these have significantly impacted the economy and the ecological environment. Although several studies have been conducted on agricultural droughts, few have examined the [...] Read more.

Drought is a meteorological phenomenon that negatively impacts agricultural production. In recent years, southwest China has frequently experienced agricultural droughts; these have significantly impacted the economy and the ecological environment. Although several studies have been conducted on agricultural droughts, few have examined the factors driving agricultural droughts from the perspective of water and energy balance. This study aimed to address this gap by utilizing the Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI) and the Budyko model to investigate agricultural drought in southwest China. The study identified four areas in Southwest China with a high incidence of agricultural drought from 2000 to 2020. Yunnan and the Sichuan-Chongqing border regions experienced drought in 10% of the months during the study period, while Guangxi and Guizhou had around 8% of months with drought. The droughts in these regions exhibited distinct seasonal characteristics, with Yunnan experiencing significantly higher drought frequency than other periods from January to June, while Guizhou and other areas were prone to severe droughts in summer and autumn. The Budyko model is widely used as the mainstream international framework for studying regional water and energy balance. In this research, the Budyko model was applied to analyze the water and energy balance characteristics in several arid regions of southwest China using drought monitoring data. Results indicate that the water and energy balances in Yunnan and Sichuan-Chongqing are more moisture-constrained, whereas those in Guizhou and Guangxi are relatively stable, suggesting lower susceptibility to extreme droughts. Furthermore, during severe drought periods, evapotranspiration becomes a dominant component of the water cycle, while available water resources such as soil moisture decrease. After comparing the causes of drought and non-drought years, it was found that the average rainfall in southwest China is approximately 30% below normal during drought years, and the temperature is 1–2% higher than normal. These phenomena are most noticeable during the spring and winter months. Additionally, vegetation transpiration is about 10% greater than normal during dry years in Southwest China, and soil evaporation increases by about 5% during the summer and autumn months compared to normal conditions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Recognition of the Interaction Mechanisms between Water and Land Resources Based on an Improved Distributed Hydrological Model

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Water 2023, 15(10), 1946; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101946 - 21 May 2023

Viewed by 382

Abstract

Conflicts between humans and land use in the process of using water and conflicts between humans and water resources in the process of using land have led to an imbalance between natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. It is difficult to understand the impact [...] Read more.

Conflicts between humans and land use in the process of using water and conflicts between humans and water resources in the process of using land have led to an imbalance between natural ecosystems and socio-economic systems. It is difficult to understand the impact of the processes of water production and consumption on land patches and their ecological effects. A grid-type, basin-distributed hydrological model was established in this study, which was based on land-use units and coupled with groundwater modules to simulate the water production and consumption processes in different units. By combining land use and net primary productivity, the runoff coefficient and the water use efficiency (NPP/ET) of different land units were used as indicators to characterize the interaction between water and land resources. The results showed that the average runoff coefficients of cultivated land, forest land and grassland were 0.7, 0.5 and 0.9, respectively. Moreover, the average runoff coefficients of hills, plains and basins were 0.7, 0.7 and 0.8, respectively. The NPP produced by the average unit, evapotranspiration, in cultivated land, forest land and grassland was 7 (gC/(m²•a))/mm, 0.7 (gC/(m²•a))/mm and 0.2 (gC/(m²•a))/mm, respectively. These results provide quantitative scientific and technological support in favor of the comprehensive ecological management of river basins. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Use of Analytic Hierarchy Process Method to Identify Potential Rainwater Harvesting Sites: Design and Financial Strategies in Taxco de Alarcón, Southern Mexico

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Blanca Itzany Rivera Vázquez

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Edith Rosalba Salcedo Sánchez

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Juan Manuel Esquivel Martínez

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Miguel Ángel Gómez Albores

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Felipe Gómez Noguez

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Carina Gutiérrez Flores

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Oscar Talavera Mendoza

Sustainability 2023, 15(10), 8220; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15108220 - 18 May 2023

Viewed by 382

Abstract

Mexico is among the countries that are facing the greatest water stress, where factors such as climate change, contamination of surface water, groundwater sources, and inefficient management have limited the availability of water resources. Consequently, new supply sources need to be implemented. Rainwater [...] Read more.

Mexico is among the countries that are facing the greatest water stress, where factors such as climate change, contamination of surface water, groundwater sources, and inefficient management have limited the availability of water resources. Consequently, new supply sources need to be implemented. Rainwater harvesting systems (RHS) are viable and sustainable alternatives, the implementation of which primarily depends on identifying suitable sites and applying technologies that are appropriate for different users. This research used the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique in a GIS environment to select the optimal sites for designing RHS, taking into account hydrological, biophysical, and socioeconomic criteria. After determining the ideal sites, the study presents proposals and costs for the design of an urban and rural RHS based on the characteristics of the region and the needs of the community. The findings show that implementing RHS in the study area can be a practical, economical, and efficient alternative for water resource management, since these projects are aimed at sustainability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Spatial–Temporal Variability of Climatic Water Balance in the Brazilian Savannah Region River Basins

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Fernanda Laurinda Valadares Ferreira

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Lineu Neiva Rodrigues

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Daniel Althoff

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Ricardo Santos Silva Amorim

Water 2023, 15(10), 1820; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15101820 - 10 May 2023

Viewed by 570

Abstract

The evaluation of water and energy cycles from the estimation of water balance is a fundamental instrument to assess the water potential of a region. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the probable monthly water deficit and surplus in Cerrado [...] Read more.

The evaluation of water and energy cycles from the estimation of water balance is a fundamental instrument to assess the water potential of a region. Thus, the objective of this study was to evaluate the probable monthly water deficit and surplus in Cerrado river basins and the trend of monthly data on climatic water balance (CWB) and its input variables in the study region. Monthly data on precipitation (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETo) from January 2003 to December 2019 were used. The deficit and the probable monthly water surplus were obtained from the CWB for each of the 4531 ottobasins. For this, the frequency equal to or greater than 80% of permanence in time was used as a reference. Trend analysis was applied. In the rainy season, most ottobasins showed positive CWB. On the other hand, in the period of lower water availability, most ottobasins showed a negative balance. In all months, there was some ottobasin with a significant trend both for CWB and for P and ETo. In most situations, these trends were a decrease in CWB and monthly P and an increase in monthly ETo. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Hydrogeochemical Appraisal of Groundwater Quality and Its Suitability for Drinking and Irrigation Purposes in the West Central Senegal

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Philippe Le Coustumer

Water 2023, 15(9), 1772; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15091772 - 05 May 2023

Viewed by 650

Abstract

Groundwater has been the main resource used for drinking, domestic and agricultural activities in West central Senegal for the past few decades. Thus, this study investigates the quality of groundwater and assesses its suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes. To this end, 42 [...] Read more.

Groundwater has been the main resource used for drinking, domestic and agricultural activities in West central Senegal for the past few decades. Thus, this study investigates the quality of groundwater and assesses its suitability for drinking and irrigation purposes. To this end, 42 samples were collected and analyzed for various chemical parameters (major ions, fluoride, pH, total dissolved solids (TDS)). Chemical data were interpreted using water quality indexes, Wilcox and USSL salinity diagrams, bivariate plots, ionic ratios and by comparing with the WHO standards. Results indicated that the groundwater is neutral to slightly alkaline with pH values between 7.1 and 8.2. Piper diagram shows that mixte-Ca-Na-Mg-HCO₃ is the dominant hydrochemical facies. TDS and water quality index (WQI) values indicated respectively that 69% and 64.3% of samples were suitable for drinking. Moreover, major ions concentrations were found below the desirable limits in most of groundwater samples. However, for fluoride, 69% of samples exceed the WHO guideline, limiting their use for drinking. The computed index of irrigation water quality and Wilcox diagram reveal that 87% and 78% of samples belong, respectively, to excellent to good category and excellent to good and good to permissible. Similarly, according to the US salinity classification, the majority of samples were acceptable for irrigation. Gibbs plots illustrate that water-rocks interaction with some extent evaporation is the main hydrochemical process controlling groundwater chemistry while bivariate plots and ionic ratios indicate that mineral dissolution and ion exchange play important role in groundwater chemistry. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Integrating Remote Sensing, Proximal Sensing, and Probabilistic Modeling to Support Agricultural Project Planning and Decision-Making for Waterlogged Fields

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Water 2023, 15(7), 1340; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15071340 - 29 Mar 2023

Viewed by 855

Abstract

Waterlogging in agriculture poses severe threats to soil properties, crop yields, and farm profitability. Remote sensing data coupled with drainage systems offer solutions to monitor and manage waterlogging in agricultural systems. However, implementing agricultural projects such as drainage is associated with high uncertainty [...] Read more.

Waterlogging in agriculture poses severe threats to soil properties, crop yields, and farm profitability. Remote sensing data coupled with drainage systems offer solutions to monitor and manage waterlogging in agricultural systems. However, implementing agricultural projects such as drainage is associated with high uncertainty and risk, with substantial negative impacts on farm profitability if not well planned. Cost–benefit analyses can help allocate resources more effectively; however, data scarcity, high uncertainty, and risks in the agricultural sector make it difficult to use traditional approaches. Here, we combined a wide range of field and remote sensing data, unsupervised machine learning, and Bayesian probabilistic models to: (1) identify potential sites susceptible to waterlogging at the farm scale, and (2) test whether the installation of drainage systems would yield a positive benefit for the farmer. Using the K-means clustering algorithm on water and vegetation indices derived from Sentinel-2 multispectral imagery, we were able to detect potential waterlogging sites in the investigated field (elbow point = 2, silhouette coefficient = 0.46). Using a combination of the Bayesian statistical model and the A/B test, we show that the installation of a drainage system can increase farm profitability by 1.7 times per year compared to the existing farm management. The posterior effect size associated with yield, cropping area, and time (year) was 0.5, 1.5, and 1.9, respectively. Altogether, our results emphasize the importance of data-driven decision-making for agriculture project planning and resource management in the wake of smart agriculture for food security and adaptation to climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

New Remote Sensing Data on the Potential Presence of Permafrost in the Deosai Plateau in the Himalayan Portion of Pakistan

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Maria Teresa Melis

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Francesco Gabriele Dessì

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Marco Casu

Remote Sens. 2023, 15(7), 1800; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15071800 - 28 Mar 2023

Viewed by 566

Abstract

In this study, the presence of permafrost layer and its potential variation in the last three decades will be examined through the multitemporal analysis of satellite data in the area of the Deosai Plateau (Northern Pakistan). In the area, only global maps on [...] Read more.

In this study, the presence of permafrost layer and its potential variation in the last three decades will be examined through the multitemporal analysis of satellite data in the area of the Deosai Plateau (Northern Pakistan). In the area, only global maps on the potential presence of permafrost layer are known. The results are based on the evaluation of variation of the number and water levels of the small lakes, and the changes of the extensions of the wetlands. The adopted methodology is based on the use of spectral indices and visual interpretation of a time-series data of Landsat images in the range 1990–2019, and on the processing of radar data from Sentinel 1 satellites, adopting new methods to extract the vertical displacement. The main findings are: (i) a high temporal dynamic of the number and surface areas of small lakes, and (ii) the evidence of a subduction in a wetland area (Black Hole), coherent with its extension, and suggesting the potential presence of a permafrost layer slowly degrading. This analysis can play a useful role on the management of the Deosai National Park (DNP), adopting careful measures for the human activities inside the park. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Estimation of Urban Evapotranspiration at High Spatiotemporal Resolution and Considering Flux Footprints

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Remote Sens. 2023, 15(5), 1327; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs15051327 - 27 Feb 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1011

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) estimations at high spatiotemporal resolutions in urban areas are crucial for extreme weather forecasting and water management. However, urban ET estimation remains a major challenge in current urban hydrology and regional climate research due to highly heterogeneous environments, human interference, and [...] Read more.

Evapotranspiration (ET) estimations at high spatiotemporal resolutions in urban areas are crucial for extreme weather forecasting and water management. However, urban ET estimation remains a major challenge in current urban hydrology and regional climate research due to highly heterogeneous environments, human interference, and a lack of observations. In this study, an urban ET model, called the PT-Urban model, was proposed for half-hourly ET estimations at a 10 m resolution. The PT-Urban model was validated using observations from the Hotel Torni urban flux site during the 2018 growing season. The results showed that the PT-Urban model performed satisfactorily, with an R² and root-mean-square error of 0.59 and 14.67 W m⁻², respectively. Further analysis demonstrated that urban canopy heat storage and shading effects are essential for the half-hourly urban energy balance. Ignoring the shading effects led to a 38.7% urban ET overestimation. Modeling experiments further proved that flux footprint variations were critical for the accurate estimation of urban ET. The setting source areas either as an invariant 70% historical footprint or as a circle with a 1 km radius both resulted in poor performances. This study presents a practical method for the accurate estimation of urban ET with high spatiotemporal resolution and highlights the importance of real-time footprints in urban ET estimations. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Bivariate Hazard Assessment of Combinations of Dry and Wet Conditions between Adjacent Seasons in a Climatic Transition Zone

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Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 437; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030437 - 22 Feb 2023

Viewed by 590

Abstract

Accumulated evidence reminds one that abrupt transitions between dry and wet spells, though attracting less attention, have harmful influences upon global continents as extensively investigated droughts and floods. This study attempts to incorporate dryness–wetness transitions into the current hazard assessment framework through bivariate [...] Read more.

Accumulated evidence reminds one that abrupt transitions between dry and wet spells, though attracting less attention, have harmful influences upon global continents as extensively investigated droughts and floods. This study attempts to incorporate dryness–wetness transitions into the current hazard assessment framework through bivariate frequency analysis and causal attribution from a teleconnection perspective. In the study, regional dry and wet conditions are monitored using the multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) which facilitates the integrated evaluation of water deficits/surplus from a combined viewpoint of precipitation (largely denoting the received atmospheric water) and runoff (representing an important source of surface water). On such a basis, a copula-based method is subsequently utilized to calculate joint return periods of dryness–wetness combinations in three (i.e., moderate, severe and extreme) severity scenarios. The changing frequency of diverse dryness–wetness combinations is also estimated under a changing climate using a 25-year time window. Furthermore, the cross-wavelet transform is applied to attribute variations in dry and wet conditions to large-scale climate indices, which benefits the early warning of dryness–wetness combinations by providing predictive information. A case study conducted during 1952–2010 in the Huai River basin (HRB)—a typical climatic transition zone in China—shows that the HRB is subject to prolonged dryness with the highest frequency, followed by the abrupt transition from dryness to wetness. Spatially, abrupt dryness–wetness transitions are more likely to occur in the southern and central parts of the HRB than in the rest of the proportion. The past half-century has witnessed the dominantly higher frequency of occurrence of dryness–wetness combinations under three severity scenarios. In particular, the occurrence of the continued dry/wetness escalates more rapidly than transition events under climate change. Moreover, a preliminary attribution analysis discloses the link of the dry and wet conditions in the HRB with climate indices, such as the El Niño southern oscillation, the Pacific decadal oscillation and the Arctic oscillation, as well as sunspot activities. The results of the study enrich the current atlas of water-related hazards, which may benefit more effective hazard mitigation and adaptation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

A Machine-Learning Approach for Monitoring Water Distribution Networks (WDNs)

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Roberto Magini

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Manuela Moretti

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Maria Antonietta Boniforti

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Roberto Guercio

Sustainability 2023, 15(4), 2981; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15042981 - 07 Feb 2023

Viewed by 779

Abstract

The knowledge of the simultaneous nodal pressure values in a water distribution network (WDN) can favor its correct management, with advantages for both water utilities and end users, and guarantee higher sustainability in the use of the water resource. However, monitoring pressure in [...] Read more.

The knowledge of the simultaneous nodal pressure values in a water distribution network (WDN) can favor its correct management, with advantages for both water utilities and end users, and guarantee higher sustainability in the use of the water resource. However, monitoring pressure in all the nodes is not feasible, so it can be useful to develop methods that allow us to estimate the whole pressure field based on data from a limited number of nodes. For this purpose, the work employed an artificial neural network (ANN) as a machine-learning regression algorithm. Uncertainty of water demand is modeled through scaling laws, linking demand statistics to the number of users served by each node. Three groups of demand scenarios are generated by using a Latin Hypercube Random Sampling with three different cross-correlations matrices of the nodal demands. Each of the corresponding groups of pressure scenarios is employed for the training of an ANN, whose performance parameter is preliminarily used to solve the sampling design for the WDN. Most of the so-derived monitoring nodes coincide in the three cases. The performance of each ANN appears to be strongly influenced by cross-correlation values, with the best results provided by the ANN relating to the most correlated demands. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Analysis of Groundwater Storage Changes and Influencing Factors in China Based on GRACE Data

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Chunxiu Shao

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Yonghe Liu

Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 250; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020250 - 27 Jan 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 794

Abstract

Groundwater is a primary freshwater resource for human consumption and an essential source for industry and agriculture. Therefore, understanding its spatial and temporal trends and drivers is crucial for governments to take appropriate measures to manage water resources. This paper uses Gravity Recovery [...] Read more.

Groundwater is a primary freshwater resource for human consumption and an essential source for industry and agriculture. Therefore, understanding its spatial and temporal trends and drivers is crucial for governments to take appropriate measures to manage water resources. This paper uses Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS) to derive groundwater storage anomalies (GWSAs) and to analyze the spatial and temporal trends of GWSA in different regions of China (Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, North China Plain, South China, and Northeast China). It used groundwater-level observation data to verify the accuracy of GWSA estimates and analyzed the drivers of regional GWSA changes. The results showed that: (1) GWSA in South China increased at a rate of 4.79 mm/a from 2003 to 2016, and GWSA in other regions in China showed a decreasing trend. Among them, the decline rates of GWSA in Xinjiang, Tibet, Inner Mongolia, North China Plain, and Northeast China were −6.24 mm/a, −3.33 mm/a, −3.17 mm/a, −7.35 mm/a, and −0.75 mm/a, respectively. (2) The accuracy of the annual-scale GWSA estimates was improved after deducting gravity losses due to raw coal quality, and the correlation coefficient between GWSA and groundwater levels monitored by observation wells increased. (3) In Xinjiang, the annual water consumed by raw coal mining, industrial, and agricultural activities had a greater impact on GWSA than rainfall and temperature, so these human activities might be the main drivers of the continued GWSA decline in Xinjiang. Water consumption by raw coal mining and industry might be the main drivers of the continued decline in GWSA in Inner Mongolia and the North China Plain. The increase in groundwater storage in South China was mainly due to the recharge of rainfall. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Assessment of a Smartphone App for Open Channel Flow Measurement in Data Scarce Irrigation Schemes

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Hydrology 2023, 10(1), 22; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology10010022 - 15 Jan 2023

Viewed by 951

Abstract

Accurate water flow measurement ensures proper irrigation water management by allocating the desired amount of water to the irrigation fields. The present study evaluated whether the non-intrusive smartphone application “DischargeApp” could be applicable and precise to measure small canal flow rates in the [...] Read more.

Accurate water flow measurement ensures proper irrigation water management by allocating the desired amount of water to the irrigation fields. The present study evaluated whether the non-intrusive smartphone application “DischargeApp” could be applicable and precise to measure small canal flow rates in the Koga irrigation Scheme. The app was tested in unlined canals with flow rates ranging from 15 to 65 l/s using a 90° V-notch weir. The app is found to overestimate high flow rates. Another source of uncertainty is that the app employed a constant surface velocity conversion factor (C = 0.8) to compute discharge. The accuracy was enhanced by recalculating the measured discharge using a new surface velocity conversion factor that depends on depths. The new conversion factor decreased the errors of MAE and RMSE by 47% and 52%, respectively. Where channel and other optional measuring techniques are not available without interfering with the flow operation conditions in place, the DischargeApp devices can be used to measure flows. The DischargeApp could be used to collect data using local citizens in data-scarce areas. This study suggested reconfiguring the DischargeApp with a new surface velocity conversion coefficient based on flow depths in field conditions for better performance. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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Open AccessArticle

Forecasting the July Precipitation over the Middle-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River with a Flexible Statistical Model

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Qixiao Jiang

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Xiangjun Shi

Atmosphere 2023, 14(1), 152; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14010152 - 10 Jan 2023

Viewed by 689

Abstract

The multiple regression method is still an important tool for establishing precipitation forecast models with a lead time of one season. This study developed a flexible statistical forecast model for July precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) based on [...] Read more.

The multiple regression method is still an important tool for establishing precipitation forecast models with a lead time of one season. This study developed a flexible statistical forecast model for July precipitation over the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR) based on the prophase winter sea surface temperature (SST). According to the characteristics of observed samples and related theoretical knowledge, some special treatments (i.e., more flexible and better-targeted methods) were introduced in the forecast model. These special treatments include a flexible MLYR domain definition, the extraction of indicative signals from the SST field, artificial samples, and the amplification of abnormal precipitation. Rolling forecast experiments show that the linear correlation between prediction and observation is around 0.5, more than half of the abnormal precipitation years can be successfully predicted, and there is no contradictory prediction of the abnormal years. These results indicate that the flexible statistical forecast model is valuable in real-life applications. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments show that forecast skills without these special treatments are obviously decreased. This suggests that forecast models can benefit from using statistical methods in a more flexible and better-targeted way. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Hydrology and Water Resources Management)

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