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Climate, Volume 10, Issue 7 (July 2022) – 22 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): Pluvial flooding can cause infectious diseases, a growing concern given climate-change-related increases in extreme precipitation events. However, the association between flooding and non-communicable respiratory diseases such as asthma and COPD is not well understood. We conducted a systematic review on this topic. Of 345 related papers, we included 16 which studied a defined flooding event with a NCRD health outcome. All papers except one found a significant association between a severe weather event and increased risk for at least one type of NCRDs. Our findings suggest that extreme weather events may worsen pre-existing respiratory conditions and increase the risk of development of asthma. Future work should focus on more precisely defining health outcome measures and assess the effect of other health and environmental factors. View this paper
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19 pages, 4168 KiB  
Article
Spatial and Temporal Assessment of Remotely Sensed Land Surface Temperature Variability in Afghanistan during 2000–2021
by Ahmad Farid Nabizada, Iman Rousta, Marjan Dalvi, Haraldur Olafsson, Anna Siedliska, Piotr Baranowski and Jaromir Krzyszczak
Climate 2022, 10(7), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070111 - 19 Jul 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3752
Abstract
The dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in Afghanistan in the period 2000–2021 were investigated, and the impact of the factors such as soil moisture, precipitation, and vegetation coverage on LST was assessed. The remotely sensed soil moisture data from Land Data Assimilation [...] Read more.
The dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) in Afghanistan in the period 2000–2021 were investigated, and the impact of the factors such as soil moisture, precipitation, and vegetation coverage on LST was assessed. The remotely sensed soil moisture data from Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), precipitation data from Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS), and NDVI and LST from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) were used. The correlations between these data were analyzed using the regression method. The result shows that the LST in Afghanistan has a slightly decreasing but insignificant trend during the study period (R = 0.2, p-value = 0.25), while vegetation coverage, precipitation, and soil moisture had an increasing trend. It was revealed that soil moisture has the highest impact on LST (R = −0.71, p-value = 0.0007), and the soil moisture, precipitation, and vegetation coverage explain almost 80% of spring (R2 = 0.73) and summer (R2 = 0.76) LST variability in Afghanistan. The LST variability analysis performed separately for Afghanistan’s river subbasins shows that the LST of the Amu Darya subbasin had an upward trend in the study period, while for the Kabul subbasin, the trend was downward. Full article
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12 pages, 2390 KiB  
Article
Climate-Induced Fire Hazard in Forests in the Volga Federal District of European Russia during 1992–2020
by Yuri Perevedentsev, Boris Sherstyukov, Artyom Gusarov, Timur Aukhadeev and Nadezhda Mirsaeva
Climate 2022, 10(7), 110; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070110 - 18 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1975
Abstract
This paper shows the relevance of the problem of fire hazard in the forests of the Volga Federal District (VFD) of European Russia. The Nesterov index and the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) are considered as indicators of fire hazard. The changes [...] Read more.
This paper shows the relevance of the problem of fire hazard in the forests of the Volga Federal District (VFD) of European Russia. The Nesterov index and the Selyaninov hydrothermal coefficient (HTC) are considered as indicators of fire hazard. The changes in climatic conditions in the VFD during 1955–2018 are shown; a trend towards warming and an increase in aridity in the study region were revealed. The repeatability of various fire hazard classes from May to September was calculated using the Nesterov method. It is shown that in July, the most dangerous situation was in the south of the VFD, where the repeatability of class IV fire hazard reached 27%. Using the HTC index, the degree of aridity of the district in the summer period was estimated. The frequency of the most arid conditions (HTC < 0.5) increases from the north to the south of the district, from 6% (Kirov Region) to 47% (Orenburg Region). Using the TT index, the potential thunderstorm danger in the VFD was assessed. With the help of the constructed maps, the hotspots of the most probable occurrence of thunderstorms were detected. The use of Rosstat data on the number of forest fires from 1992 to 2020 made it possible to consider the spatiotemporal distribution of forest fires in 14 administrative regions of the VFD. The distribution of the number of fires by the regions is shown depending on their forest cover and season. The peak of the number of fires was revealed in 2010, when the entire territory of the study region was covered by a severe drought, as a result of which the area of forests covered by fire increased many times over. In recent years (since 2017), there has been an increase in the area of burned forest due to the active phase of climate warming. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Disasters and Extreme Hazards under Changing Climate)
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20 pages, 14930 KiB  
Article
Exploring Methods for Developing Local Climate Zones to Support Climate Research
by Laurence Sigler, Joan Gilabert and Gara Villalba
Climate 2022, 10(7), 109; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070109 - 16 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2586
Abstract
Meteorological and climate prediction models at the urban scale increasingly require more accurate and high-resolution data. The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system is an initiative to standardize a classification scheme of the urban landscape, based mainly on the properties of surface structure (e.g., [...] Read more.
Meteorological and climate prediction models at the urban scale increasingly require more accurate and high-resolution data. The Local Climate Zone (LCZ) system is an initiative to standardize a classification scheme of the urban landscape, based mainly on the properties of surface structure (e.g., building, tree height, density) and surface cover (pervious vs. impervious). This approach is especially useful for studying the influence of urban morphology and fabric on the surface urban heat island (SUHI) effect and to evaluate how changes in land use and structures affect thermal regulation in the city. This article will demonstrate three different methodologies of creating LCZs: first, the World Urban Database and Access Portal Tools (WUDAPT); second, using Copernicus Urban Atlas (UA) data via a geographic information system (GIS) client directly; and third via Google Earth Engine (GEE) using Oslo, Norway as the case study. The WUDAPT and GEE methods incorporate a machine learning (random forest) procedure using Landsat 8 imagery, and offer the most precision while requiring the most time and familiarity with GIS usage and satellite imagery processing. The WUDAPT method is performed principally using multiple GIS clients and image processing tools. The GEE method is somewhat quicker to perform, with work performed entirely on Google’s sites. The UA or GIS method is performed solely via a GIS client and is a conversion of pre-existing vector data to LCZ classes via scripting. This is the quickest method of the three; however, the reclassification of the vector data determines the accuracy of the LCZs produced. Finally, as an illustration of a practical use of LCZs and to further compare the results of the three methods, we map the distribution of the temperature according to the LCZs of each method, correlating to the land surface temperature (LST) from a Landsat 8 image pertaining to a heat wave episode that occurred in Oslo in 2018. These results show, in addition to a clear LCZ-LST correspondence, that the three methods produce accurate and similar results and are all viable options. Full article
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19 pages, 6821 KiB  
Article
Regional Responses of the Northern Hemisphere Subtropical Jet Stream to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Extent
by José Luis Rodriguez Solis, Cuauhtémoc Turrent and Markus Gross
Climate 2022, 10(7), 108; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070108 - 16 Jul 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3094
Abstract
The effect of Arctic sea ice loss on the boreal winter regional trends of wind speed and latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet stream (STJ) in 1980–2012 is investigated. Two sets of global simulations with reduced Arctic sea ice extent are [...] Read more.
The effect of Arctic sea ice loss on the boreal winter regional trends of wind speed and latitudinal position of the Northern Hemisphere subtropical jet stream (STJ) in 1980–2012 is investigated. Two sets of global simulations with reduced Arctic sea ice extent are analyzed: simulations that, south of 70 N, use a climatological annual cycle of the sea surface temperature (SST) and a second set that uses full SST variability. Results with the climatological SST have a significant but weak response of the STJ wind speed and latitudinal position to the warmer Arctic: the wind speed generally decreases and the jet core is displaced equatorward. However, in the realistic SST simulations, the effect of Arctic warming is only slightly evident in a small equatorward shift of the jet over the Atlantic basin. Over the Pacific basin the STJ is mostly driven by tropical and mid-latitude SST variability, with little influence from the Arctic region. A weakening and poleward shift of the STJ that is observed in the realistic SST simulations over the Pacific basin is attributed to negative SST trends in the tropical Pacific and the consequent weakening of the mid-latitude meridional gradient of geopotential height in the upper troposphere. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers for Section "Climate Dynamics and Modelling")
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23 pages, 4948 KiB  
Article
Hydrological and Meteorological Variability in the Volga River Basin under Global Warming by 1.5 and 2 Degrees
by Andrey Kalugin
Climate 2022, 10(7), 107; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070107 - 15 Jul 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2904
Abstract
The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to [...] Read more.
The idea of the research to assess the impact of 1.5 °C and 2 °C global warming in the 21st century on the runoff formation in the Volga basin corresponds to the Paris agreement on climate change 2016 with the main goal to keep the global air temperature rise to below 2 °C relative to the pre-industrial level and to take measures to limit warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the 21st century. The purpose of this study was to obtain physically based results of changes in the water regime of the Volga basin rivers under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial values. The physical and mathematical model of runoff generation ECOMAG (ECOlogical Model for Applied Geophysics) was applied in calculations using data from global climate models (GCMs). The estimation of flow anomalies of the Volga River and its major tributaries showed a decrease in annual runoff by 10–11% relative to the period from 1970 to 1999. The largest relative decrease in runoff by 17–20% was noted for the Oka and Upper Volga rivers, while the Kama River had only a 1–5% decrease. The Volga winter runoff increased by 17% and 28% under global warming by 1.5 °C and 2 °C, respectively, and negative runoff anomalies during the spring flood and the summer–autumn period turned out to be in the range of 21 to 23%. Despite the increase in precipitation, the role of evaporation in the water balance of the Volga basin will only increase. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Responses for Water and Environmental Security)
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17 pages, 3994 KiB  
Article
A Methodology for Bridging the Gap between Regional- and City-Scale Climate Simulations for the Urban Thermal Environment
by Konstantina Koutroumanou-Kontosi, Constantinos Cartalis, Kostas Philippopoulos, Ilias Agathangelidis and Anastasios Polydoros
Climate 2022, 10(7), 106; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070106 - 13 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2412
Abstract
The main objective of this study is to bridge the gap between regional- and city-scale climate simulations, with the focus given to the thermal environment. A dynamic-statistical downscaling methodology for defining daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures is [...] Read more.
The main objective of this study is to bridge the gap between regional- and city-scale climate simulations, with the focus given to the thermal environment. A dynamic-statistical downscaling methodology for defining daily maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperatures is developed based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression models (MLRs). The approach involves the use of simulations from two EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) (at approximately 12 km × 12 km) that are further downscaled to a finer resolution (1 km × 1 km). A feature selection methodology is applied to select the optimum subset of parameters for training the machine learning models. The downscaling methodology is initially applied to two RCMs, driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis (2008–2011) and high-resolution urban climate model simulations (UrbClims). The performance of the relationships is validated and found to successfully simulate the spatiotemporal distribution of Tmax and Tmin over Athens. Finally, the relationships that were extracted by the models are further used to quantify changes for Tmax and Tmin in high resolution, between the historical period (1971–2000) and mid-century (2041–2071) climate projections for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Based on the results, both mean Tmax and Tmin are estimated to increase by 1.7 °C and 1.5 °C for RCP4.5 and 2.3 °C and 2.1 °C for RCP8.5, respectively, with distinct spatiotemporal patterns over the study area. Full article
(This article belongs to the Topic Urban Mitigation and Adaptation to Climate Change)
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15 pages, 15032 KiB  
Article
Local Officials’ Perceptions of Climate Victim Management Challenges on Bangladesh’s Southeast Coast
by Kisinger Chakma and Kenichi Matsui
Climate 2022, 10(7), 105; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070105 - 6 Jul 2022
Viewed by 2370
Abstract
In Bangladesh, extreme weather events displace about one million people each year. The national government resettles these climate victims by allocating houses in so-called cluster villages. This paper examines how local disaster management officials manage the resettlement of climate victims in Bangladesh’s coastal [...] Read more.
In Bangladesh, extreme weather events displace about one million people each year. The national government resettles these climate victims by allocating houses in so-called cluster villages. This paper examines how local disaster management officials manage the resettlement of climate victims in Bangladesh’s coastal areas. For this paper, we conducted a preliminary field work, questionnaire survey, and informal phone interviews. The questionnaire survey was conducted from March to July 2020 among 70 central government civil servants who worked as disaster management officials and played a pivotal role in local decision making for climate victim resettlement. This paper first examines how national disaster response policies were implemented in local areas before, during, and after disasters. Our questionnaire survey results show five management challenges local officials faced in managing displaced people: (1) local officials’ limited onsite experience, (2) varied impacts of natural disasters on islands and the mainland, (3) arbitrary engagement in disaster response actions, (4) lack of evacuation drills, and (5) weak coordination skills among relevant stakeholders. In particular, these challenges were acute among island officials. Our multiple regression analyses show that the respondents’ age and onsite work experience (p < 0.05) significantly affected their perceptions. Overall, these findings suggest a need to drastically improve local disaster governance capacity. This study offers insights into how countries with similar challenges may respond to climate-induced displacement in the future. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Policy, Governance, and Social Equity)
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15 pages, 503 KiB  
Review
Climate Security and Its Implications for East Asia
by Takashi Sekiyama
Climate 2022, 10(7), 104; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070104 - 6 Jul 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 4070
Abstract
This study investigated the scientific progress of climate security studies through a literature review and discussed its risks in East Asia. Climate security refers to the protection of countries and societies from conflicts and riots caused by climate change. As climate change becomes [...] Read more.
This study investigated the scientific progress of climate security studies through a literature review and discussed its risks in East Asia. Climate security refers to the protection of countries and societies from conflicts and riots caused by climate change. As climate change becomes more apparent, climate security has been vigorously debated in the international community. Climate security risks in East Asia, however, are not yet widely discussed. This literature review identified that climate change increases the risk of conflict not only through direct threats to people and societies from extreme weather events and natural disasters, but also indirectly through various pathways, such as shortages of water and other resources, outbreaks of climate migration, disruptions in food production, economic and social disturbances, and geopolitical changes. Considering the climate-conflict pathways identified by the literature review, East Asia may face (1) tensions caused by climate emigrants, (2) conflicts over loss of territories and fishery areas, (3) conflicts caused by water shortage, (4) instability caused by heavy rain and floods, and (5) geopolitical risks of rare earth sourcing, green industrial policies, and the Arctic. East Asian countries need to lower climate security risks in the region through cooperative international measures such as climate change mitigation, vulnerability reduction, and policy dialogue. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Anthropogenic Climate Change: Social Science Perspectives)
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10 pages, 584 KiB  
Review
Climate Change and Its Effects on Indoor Pests (Insect and Fungi) in Museums
by Pascal Querner, Katja Sterflinger, Katharina Derksen, Johanna Leissner, Bill Landsberger, Astrid Hammer and Peter Brimblecombe
Climate 2022, 10(7), 103; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070103 - 5 Jul 2022
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3835
Abstract
Climate change not only affects the biodiversity of natural habitats, but also the flora and fauna within cities. An increase in average temperature and changing precipitation, but additionally extreme weather events with heat waves and flooding, are forecast. The climate in our cities [...] Read more.
Climate change not only affects the biodiversity of natural habitats, but also the flora and fauna within cities. An increase in average temperature and changing precipitation, but additionally extreme weather events with heat waves and flooding, are forecast. The climate in our cities and, thus, also inside buildings is influenced by the changing outdoor climate and urban heat islands. A further challenge to ecosystems is the introduction of new species (neobiota). If these species are pests, they can cause damage to stored products and materials. Much cultural heritage is within buildings, so changes in the indoor climate also affect pests (insect and fungi) within the museums, storage depositories, libraries, and historic properties. This paper reviews the literature and presents an overview of these complex interactions between the outdoor climate, indoor climate, and pests in museums. Recent studies have examined the direct impact of climate on buildings and collections. The warming of indoor climates and an increased frequency or intensity of extreme weather events are two important drivers affecting indoor pests such as insects and fungi, which can severely damage collections. Increases in activity and new species are found, e.g., the tropical grey silverfish Ctenolepisma longicaudatum has been present in many museums in recent years benefitting from increased indoor temperatures. Full article
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16 pages, 799 KiB  
Article
Upscaling Local Adaptive Heritage Practices to Internationally Designated Heritage Sites
by Sarah Kerr and Felix Riede
Climate 2022, 10(7), 102; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070102 - 5 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2603
Abstract
World Heritage Sites can face an onslaught of risks from high tourist numbers, climate changes, the impacts of conflict and war, and static management practices. These sites have been ascribed a value that is considered both outstanding and universal (OUV) and as such [...] Read more.
World Heritage Sites can face an onslaught of risks from high tourist numbers, climate changes, the impacts of conflict and war, and static management practices. These sites have been ascribed a value that is considered both outstanding and universal (OUV) and as such they are placed at a higher prioritisation than all other heritage sites. The aim of this listing is to ensure their protection for future generations. Yet, the management practices enacted under this preservation mandate can be reactive rather than proactive and reflective, overly concerned with maintaining the status quo, and restricted by a complexity of national and international regulations and stakeholders. We here introduce a local-scale, community-driven heritage project, called CHICC, that offers, we argue, a useful insight into management practices that may be upscaled to internationally designated sites. Although this is not a blueprint to fit all heritage needs, some of the fundamental intentions embedded within CHICC can and perhaps should be adopted in the approaches to internationally designated site management. These include inclusivity with the local community as a priority stakeholder, a deeper understanding of the site including its future risks, consideration of the wider heritage landscape, and greater incorporation of heritage dynamism. Through analysing and evaluating the case study project, this conceptual chapter argues that adaptive heritage practices are underway in some local-scale contexts, and this can be a useful template for advancing the management of World Heritage Sites. Full article
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17 pages, 317 KiB  
Review
Climate Change Related Catastrophic Rainfall Events and Non-Communicable Respiratory Disease: A Systematic Review of the Literature
by Alexandra M. Peirce, Leon M. Espira and Peter S. Larson
Climate 2022, 10(7), 101; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070101 - 4 Jul 2022
Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4407
Abstract
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the impacts of which disproportionately impact urban populations. Pluvial flooding and flooding related sewer backups are thought to result in an increase in potentially hazardous human-pathogen encounters. However, the extent and [...] Read more.
Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events, the impacts of which disproportionately impact urban populations. Pluvial flooding and flooding related sewer backups are thought to result in an increase in potentially hazardous human-pathogen encounters. However, the extent and nature of associations between flooding events and non-communicable respiratory diseases such as chronic bronchitis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are not well understood. This research seeks to characterize the state of research on flooding and NCRDs through a systematic review of the scientific literature. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus for published scholarly research papers using the terms flooding, monsoon, and tropical storm with terms for common NCRDs such as asthma, COPD, and chronic bronchitis. Papers were included if they covered research studies on individuals with defined outcomes of flooding events. We excluded review papers, case studies, and opinion pieces. We retrieved 200 articles from PubMed, 268 from Web of Science and 203 from Scopus which comprised 345 unique papers. An initial review of abstracts yielded 38 candidate papers. A full text review of each left 16 papers which were included for the review. All papers except for one found a significant association between a severe weather event and increased risk for at least one of the NCRDs included in this research. Our findings further suggest that extreme weather events may worsen pre-existing respiratory conditions and increase the risk of development of asthma. Future work should focus on more precisely defining measure of health outcomes using validated tools to describe asthma and COPD exacerbations. Research efforts should also work to collect granular data on patients’ health status and family history and assess possible confounding and mediating factors such as neighborhood water mitigation infrastructure, housing conditions, pollen counts, and other environmental variables. Full article
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15 pages, 2108 KiB  
Article
Estimation of Air Emissions Externalities Due to Shipping: Analytical Methodological Framework
by Emmanouil Doundoulakis and Spiros Papaefthimiou
Climate 2022, 10(7), 100; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070100 - 1 Jul 2022
Viewed by 1905
Abstract
The main objective of this paper is to present an analytical methodological framework for the estimation of the external costs of air emissions from passenger ships. We used as a case study the two main ports of Crete (Souda and Heraklion) and studied [...] Read more.
The main objective of this paper is to present an analytical methodological framework for the estimation of the external costs of air emissions from passenger ships. We used as a case study the two main ports of Crete (Souda and Heraklion) and studied all passenger ferries and cruise vessels that visited these ports in the last 5 years (2017–2021). A detailed inventory was created containing all technical details for 10 passenger ferries (owned by three different shipping companies) operating every day, following various itineraries all year around, and 88 different cruise vessels (which approached both ports mainly during the summer period). The estimated external costs due to air emissions cover health effects, materials and building damages, biodiversity and crop losses. Two levels of calculations for the total external costs per pollutant were implemented. At the first level, a bottom-up approach was applied to accurately calculate the total annual air emissions (CO2, SOX, NOX, PM2.5, PM10), while for the second level, the cost factors per pollutant were used as input values to estimate the annual total external costs. One of the most important findings is that externalities comprise a significant amount of shipping companies’ revenues (about 25–35%), thus, implying a substantial revenue loss in the case that they would be asked to bear these costs. Assuming that ship owners will pass these costs on to ticket fares, an attempt is made to allocate the “externalities surcharge” (i.e., the burden of external costs) to ticket fares per transportation category. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Climate and Economics)
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12 pages, 11820 KiB  
Article
Studies of the Effect of Seasonal Cycle on the Equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation with a Chemistry-Climate Model
by Kiyotaka Shibata
Climate 2022, 10(7), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070099 - 30 Jun 2022
Viewed by 1612
Abstract
The effect of the seasonal cycle on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere was investigated using a chemistry-climate model (CCM) by fixing the seasonal cycle in CCM simulations. The CCM realistically reproduced the QBO in wind and ozone fields of a [...] Read more.
The effect of the seasonal cycle on the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the equatorial stratosphere was investigated using a chemistry-climate model (CCM) by fixing the seasonal cycle in CCM simulations. The CCM realistically reproduced the QBO in wind and ozone fields of a 30-month period in a climatological simulation (control run) under annually repeating sea surface temperature (SST) with a seasonal cycle. For the control run, four experimental simulations (perpetual runs) were made by fixing solar declination and SST on the 15th of January, April, July, and October, respectively, for about 20 years. In the three perpetual runs of January, July, and October, the QBO was maintained and persisted throughout the 20-year integration in spite of some small differences in period and amplitude among the three runs. On the other hand, the QBO in the perpetual April run began to weaken after about 15 years and the downward propagation of westerly wind stopped at about 20 hPa, resulting in the QBO’s ceasing. The cause of this QBO disappearance is related to the evolution of the background mean flow in the lower stratosphere, which filtered out the parameterized gravity waves propagating upwards farther. Full article
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16 pages, 2438 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Satellite-Based Air Temperature Estimates at Eight Diverse Sites in Africa
by Danny Parsons, David Stern, Denis Ndanguza and Mouhamadou Bamba Sylla
Climate 2022, 10(7), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070098 - 30 Jun 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2152
Abstract
High resolution satellite and reanalysis-based air temperature estimates have huge potential to complement the sparse networks of air temperature measurements from ground stations in Africa. The recently released Climate Hazards Center Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS-daily) dataset provides daily minimum and maximum air [...] Read more.
High resolution satellite and reanalysis-based air temperature estimates have huge potential to complement the sparse networks of air temperature measurements from ground stations in Africa. The recently released Climate Hazards Center Infrared Temperature with Stations (CHIRTS-daily) dataset provides daily minimum and maximum air temperature estimates on a near-global scale from 1983 to 2016. This study assesses the performance of CHIRTS-daily in comparison with measurements from eight ground stations in diverse locations across Africa from 1983 to 2016, benchmarked against the ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis to understand its potential to provide localized temperature information. Compared to ERA5 and ERA5-Land, CHIRTS-daily maximum temperature has higher correlation and lower bias of daily, annual mean maximum and annual extreme maximum temperature. It also exhibits significant trends in annual mean maximum temperature, comparable to those from the station data. CHIRTS-daily minimum temperatures generally have higher correlation, but larger bias than ERA5 and ERA5-Land. However, the results indicate that CHIRTS-daily minimum temperature biases may be largely systematic and could potentially be corrected for. Overall, CHIRTS-daily is highly promising as it outperforms ERA5 and ERA5-Land in many areas, and exhibits good results across a small, but diverse set of sites in Africa. Further studies in specific geographic areas could help support these findings. Full article
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18 pages, 5420 KiB  
Article
Applying Machine Learning for Threshold Selection in Drought Early Warning System
by Hui Luo, Jessica Bhardwaj, Suelynn Choy and Yuriy Kuleshov
Climate 2022, 10(7), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070097 - 30 Jun 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2177
Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and meteorological drought category to identify NDVI thresholds that correspond to varying drought categories. The gridded evaluation was performed across a 34-year period from 1982 to 2016 on a monthly time [...] Read more.
This study investigates the relationship between the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and meteorological drought category to identify NDVI thresholds that correspond to varying drought categories. The gridded evaluation was performed across a 34-year period from 1982 to 2016 on a monthly time scale for Grassland and Temperate regions in Australia. To label the drought category for each grid inside the climate zone, we use the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD) across a 120-year period from 1900 to 2020 on a monthly scale and calculate percentiles corresponding to drought categories. The drought category classification model takes NDVI data as the input and outputs of drought categories. Then, we propose a threshold selection algorithm to distinguish the NDVI threshold to indicate the boundary between two adjacent drought categories. The performance of the drought category classification model is evaluated using the accuracy metric, and visual interpretation is performed using the heat map. The drought classification model provides a concept to evaluate drought severity, as well as the relationship between NDVI data and drought severity. The results of this study demonstrate the potential application of this concept toward early drought warning systems. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change, Sustainable Development and Disaster Risks)
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5 pages, 195 KiB  
Editorial
Linking Climate-Change Impacts on Hydrological Processes and Water Quality to Local Watersheds
by Ying Ouyang, Sudhanshu Sekhar Panda and Gary Feng
Climate 2022, 10(7), 96; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070096 - 30 Jun 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2051
Abstract
Estimation of hydrological processes and water quality is central to water resource management, clean water supply, environmental protection, and ecological services [...] Full article
32 pages, 3120 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Climate Models Performance and Associated Uncertainties in Rainfall Projection from CORDEX over the Eastern Nile Basin, Ethiopia
by Sadame M. Yimer, Abderrazak Bouanani, Navneet Kumar, Bernhard Tischbein and Christian Borgemeister
Climate 2022, 10(7), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070095 - 27 Jun 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2772
Abstract
The adverse impact of climate change on different regionally important sectors such as agriculture and hydropower is a serious concern and is currently at the epicentre of global interest. Despite the extensive efforts to project the future climate and assess its potential impact, [...] Read more.
The adverse impact of climate change on different regionally important sectors such as agriculture and hydropower is a serious concern and is currently at the epicentre of global interest. Despite the extensive efforts to project the future climate and assess its potential impact, it is surrounded by uncertainties. This study aimed to assess climate models’ performance and associated uncertainties in rainfall projection over the eastern Nile basin, Ethiopia. Seventeen climate models from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) and their four ensemble models were evaluated in terms of their historical prediction performance (1986–2005) and future simulation skill (2006–2016) at rainfall station (point location), grid-scale (0.44° × 0.44°) and basin scale. Station-based and spatially interpolated observed rainfall data were used as a reference during climate model performance evaluation. In addition, CRU data was used as an alternative reference data to check the effect of the reference data source on the climate models evaluation process. As the results showed, climate models have a large discrepancy in their projected rainfall and hence prior evaluation of their performance is necessary. For instance, the bias in historical mean annual rainfall averaged over the basin ranges from +760 mm (wet bias) to −582 mm (dry bias). The spatial pattern correlation (r) of climate models output and observed rainfall ranges from −0.1 to 0.7. The ensemble formed with selected (performance-based) member models outperforms the widely used multi-model ensemble in most of the evaluation metrics. This showed the need for reconsidering the widely used multi-model approach in most climate model-based studies. The use of CRU data as a reference resulted in a change in the magnitude of climate model bias. To conclude, each climate model has a certain degree of uncertainty in the rainfall projection, which potentially affects the studies on climate change and its impact (e.g., on water resources). Therefore, climate-related studies have to consider uncertainties in climate projections, which will help end-users (decision-makers) at least to be aware of the potential range of deviation in the future projected outcomes of interest. Full article
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21 pages, 5969 KiB  
Review
The Imprint of Recent Meteorological Events on Boulder Deposits along the Mediterranean Rocky Coasts
by Marco Delle Rose and Paolo Martano
Climate 2022, 10(7), 94; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070094 - 26 Jun 2022
Viewed by 2308
Abstract
In this review, the potential of an emerging field of interdisciplinary climate research, Coastal Boulder Deposits (CBDs) as natural archives for intense storms, is explored with particular reference to the Mediterranean region. First, the identification of the pertinent scientific articles was performed by [...] Read more.
In this review, the potential of an emerging field of interdisciplinary climate research, Coastal Boulder Deposits (CBDs) as natural archives for intense storms, is explored with particular reference to the Mediterranean region. First, the identification of the pertinent scientific articles was performed by the using Web of Science (WoS) engine. Thus, the selected studies have been analysed to feature CBDs produced and/or activated during the last half-century. Then, the meteorological events responsible for the literature-reported cases were analysed in some detail using the web archives of the Globo-Bolam-Moloch model cascade. The study of synoptical and local characteristics of the storms involved in the documented cases of boulder production/activation proved useful for assessing the suitability of selected sites as geomorphological storm proxies. It is argued that a close and fruitful collaboration involving several scientific disciplines is required to develop this climate research field. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Review Feature Papers for Climate)
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10 pages, 1658 KiB  
Article
Stalagmite-Inferred Climate in the Western Mediterranean during the Roman Warm Period
by Hsun-Ming Hu, Véronique Michel, Patricia Valensi, Horng-Sheng Mii, Elisabetta Starnini, Marta Zunino and Chuan-Chou Shen
Climate 2022, 10(7), 93; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070093 - 23 Jun 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3906
Abstract
The circum-Mediterranean region is the cradle of ancient civilizations that had their roots in the Holocene. Climate change has been considered a key element that contributed to their rise or fall. The Roman Warm Period (RWP), 200 B.C. to 400 A.D., was the [...] Read more.
The circum-Mediterranean region is the cradle of ancient civilizations that had their roots in the Holocene. Climate change has been considered a key element that contributed to their rise or fall. The Roman Warm Period (RWP), 200 B.C. to 400 A.D., was the warmest period in Europe during the last two thousand years. Hydroclimatic change at the end of the RWP has been suggested as a possible influence on the stability of the Roman political regime and the eventual collapse of the Roman Empire in 476 A.D. A lack of precise proxy records hampers our understanding of hydroclimatic variability over the RWP. Here we present a stalagmite-based climate record from 550 ± 10 B.C. to 950 ± 7 A.D. (2σ) from northern Italy, which reveals a climatic trend of warming and increased humidity throughout the RWP. By comparison with other proxy records in Europe and the circum-Mediterranean region, we argue that the warm, humid climate in southern Europe could be linked to the multi-centennial warming of the Mediterranean Sea. Our record further suggests a century-long rapid drying trend from the early-4th to early-5th century, followed by a 100-year-long drought event, which could have influenced the fall of the Roman Empire. Full article
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1 pages, 159 KiB  
Correction
Correction: Kim et al. Assessing Role of Drought Indices in Anticipating Pine Decline in the Sierra Nevada, CA. Climate 2022, 10, 72
by Yoonji Kim, Nancy E. Grulke, Andrew G. Merschel and Kellie A. Uyeda
Climate 2022, 10(7), 92; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070092 - 22 Jun 2022
Viewed by 1347
Abstract
Author “David A [...] Full article
20 pages, 1022 KiB  
Review
Improving Early Warning of Drought in Australia
by Stephen C. Lellyett, Robert N. Truelove and Abul K. S. Huda
Climate 2022, 10(7), 91; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070091 - 21 Jun 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2364
Abstract
This invited review outlines a selection of recent technical and communication advances, in certain areas of climate and weather science that could improve the capability and utility of drought early warning systems in Australia. First, a selection of current operational outputs and their [...] Read more.
This invited review outlines a selection of recent technical and communication advances, in certain areas of climate and weather science that could improve the capability and utility of drought early warning systems in Australia. First, a selection of current operational outputs and their significance for drought early warning is reviewed, then a selection of advancements in the Research and Development (R&D) pipeline are considered, which have potential to help enable better decision-making by stakeholders subject to drought risk. The next generation of drought early warning systems should have a focus on index- and impact-based prediction models that go beyond basic weather and climate parameters, at seasonal through to multi-year timescales. Convergence and integration of emerging research, science and technology is called for across the fields of climate, agronomy, environment, economics and social science, to improve early warning information. The enablement of more predictively based drought policy, should facilitate more proactive responses by stakeholders throughout the agricultural value chain, and should make stakeholders more drought resilient. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)
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15 pages, 274 KiB  
Article
Making Climate Risks Governable in Swedish Municipalities: Crisis Preparedness, Technical Measures, and Public Involvement
by Rolf Lidskog and Linn Rabe
Climate 2022, 10(7), 90; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10070090 - 21 Jun 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2339
Abstract
Creating preparedness for climate change has become an increasingly important task for society. In Sweden, the responsibility for crisis preparedness rests to a large extent on the municipalities. Through an interview study of municipal officials, this paper examines municipalities’ crisis preparedness for climate [...] Read more.
Creating preparedness for climate change has become an increasingly important task for society. In Sweden, the responsibility for crisis preparedness rests to a large extent on the municipalities. Through an interview study of municipal officials, this paper examines municipalities’ crisis preparedness for climate change and the role they assign to citizens. The theoretical approach is that of risk governance, which adopts an inclusive approach to risk management, and that of risk sociology, which states that how a problem is defined determines how it should be handled and by whom. The empirical results show that the municipal officials mainly discuss technically defined risks, such as certain kinds of climate-related extreme events, the handling of which does not require any substantial involvement of citizens. Citizens’ responsibility is only to be individually prepared, and thereby they do not require municipal resources to protect their own properties in the case of an extreme event. The municipalities, however, feel that their citizens have not developed this individual preparedness and therefore they try to better inform them. This analysis finds five different views of citizens, all with their own problems, and to which the municipalities respond with different communicative measures. By way of conclusion, three crucial aspects are raised regarding the task of making societies better prepared for climate change. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes)
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