Climate

18 pages, 6907 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Satellite Estimates and Gauge-Based Rainfall Products in Northern Part of Egypt

by Mahmoud Roushdi

Climate 2022, 10(9), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090134 - 19 Sep 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2077

Egypt’s climate is generally dry all over the country except for the Northern Mediterranean Coast. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) uses few meteorological stations to monitor weather events in the entire country within the area of one million square kilometers, which makes it [...] Read more.

Egypt’s climate is generally dry all over the country except for the Northern Mediterranean Coast. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority (EMA) uses few meteorological stations to monitor weather events in the entire country within the area of one million square kilometers, which makes it scarce with respect to spatial distribution. The EMA data are relatively expensive to obtain. Open access rainfall products (RP) are commonly used to monitor rainfall as good alternatives, especially for data-scarce countries such as Egypt. This paper aims to evaluate the performance of 12 open access rainfall products for 8 locations in the northern part of Egypt, in order to map the rainfall spatial distribution over the northern part of Egypt based on the best RP. The evaluation process is conducted for the period 2000–2018 for seven locations (Marsa-Matrouh, Abu-Qeir, Rasheed, Port-Said, Tanta, Mansoura, and Cairo-Airport), while it is conducted for the period 1996–2008 for the Damanhour location. The selected open access rainfall products are compared with the ground stations data using annual and monthly timescales. The point-to-pixel approach is applied using four statistical indices (Pearson correlation coefficient (r), Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), root mean square error (RMSE) and bias ratio (Pbias)). Overall, the results indicate that both the African Rainfall Estimation Algorithm (RFE) product and the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) product could be the best rainfall data sources for the Marsa-Matrouh location, with relatively higher r (0.99–0.93 for RFE and 0.99–0.89 for CPC) and NSE (0.98–0.79 for RFE and 0.98–0.75 for CPC), in addition to lower RMSE (0.94–7.78 for RFE and 0.92–12.01 for CPC) and Pbias (0.01–11.95% for RFE and −2.22–−12.15% for CPC) for annual and monthly timescales. In addition, the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) and CPC give the best rainfall products for the Abu-Qier and Port-Said locations. GPCC is more suitable for the Rasheed location. The most appropriate rainfall product for the Tanta location is CHIRPS. The current research confirms the benefits of using rainfall products after conducting the recommended performance assessment for each location. Full article

(This article belongs to the Topic Applications of Geodesy in Meteorological, Hydrological and Climatic Environments)

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16 pages, 3738 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Compound Extremes of Air Temperature and Precipitation in Eastern Europe

by Elena Vyshkvarkova and Olga Sukhonos

Climate 2022, 10(9), 133; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090133 - 05 Sep 2022

Cited by 13 | Viewed by 2632

Abstract

The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices—cold/dry (CD), cold/wet [...] Read more.

The spatial distribution of compound extremes of air temperature and precipitation was studied over the territory of Eastern Europe for the period 1950–2018. Using daily data on air temperature and precipitation, we calculated the frequency and trends of the four indices—cold/dry (CD), cold/wet (CW), warm/dry (WD) and warm/wet (WW). The connection between these indices and large-scale patterns in the ocean–atmosphere system, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the East Atlantic (EA) and Scandinavia (SCAND) patterns, was also studied. The positive and statistically significant trends in the region were observed for the warm extremes (especially the WW index) in all seasons, with maximum values in the winter season, while negative trends were obtained for the cold extremes. The NAO index has a strong positive and statistically significant correlation with the warm compound indices (WD and WW) in the northern part of Eastern Europe in winter like the EA pattern, but with smaller values. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between compound extremes and the SCAND index in the winter season is opposite to the correlation coefficients with the NAO index. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Disasters and Extreme Hazards under Changing Climate)

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24 pages, 6225 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Coastal Flood Risks and the Business Community: Stakeholders’ Perception in Malta

by Daniel Spiteri and Ritienne Gauci

Climate 2022, 10(9), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090132 - 02 Sep 2022

Viewed by 3320

Abstract

Resilience of coastal communities is increasingly required to adjust to the effects of climate change and its coast-related threats. Climate change is a major global threat to the environment, economy, and health of urban coastal lowlands. Flooding risks from both rising sea levels [...] Read more.

Resilience of coastal communities is increasingly required to adjust to the effects of climate change and its coast-related threats. Climate change is a major global threat to the environment, economy, and health of urban coastal lowlands. Flooding risks from both rising sea levels and increases in the frequency and severity of storm surges are considered to be amongst the most threatening consequences associated with climate change. The aim of this study was to assess the levels of socio-economic preparedness of low-lying urbanized towns in Malta for the impacts of coastal flooding through the triangulation of stakeholders’ participation from three sectors: the business community, local councils, and specialized experts from the governmental and private sectors. The study also included field collection of elevation data for each locality to capture the businesses’ distribution in relation to their height above sea level along the urban waterfront. One-way analysis of variance and NVivo were used to test and compare the business owners’ responses and the experts’ feedback, respectively. The main findings from the business community suggest that there are no long-term contingency plans or strategies in place to address potential flooding impacts from rising sea levels and storm surges, and that the risks of driving owners out of business is high. From the feedback received by the local councils, it was observed that all of them significantly lack the physical and financial resources to effectively manage long-term coastal flooding within their locality, forcing them to completely rely on central government for any future needs caused by the impact of coastal flooding. From a central government perspective, it seems that all interviewed experts operate within a fragmented governance model, and mainly adhere to the set of responsibilities aligned with their respective roles within such a governance model. This evidence of governance disconnect requires more horizontal and vertical integration of cross-sectoral strategies to address coastal flooding, within the broader framework of integrated coastal zone management as established by the Mediterranean ICZM protocol. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impact of Climate Change on Ocean and Coastal Areas)

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17 pages, 7959 KiB

Open AccessArticle

New Air Temperature- and Wind Speed-Based Clothing Thermal Resistance Scheme—Estimations for the Carpathian Region

by Ferenc Ács, Erzsébet Kristóf, Amanda Imola Szabó, Hajnalka Breuer, Zsófia Szalkai and Annamária Zsákai

Climate 2022, 10(9), 131; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090131 - 01 Sep 2022

Viewed by 2183

Abstract

A new clothing thermal resistance scheme is presented and verified for the Carpathian region and for the time period 1971–2000. The scheme is as simple as possible by connecting operative temperature to air temperature, which allows for it to only use air temperature [...] Read more.

A new clothing thermal resistance scheme is presented and verified for the Carpathian region and for the time period 1971–2000. The scheme is as simple as possible by connecting operative temperature to air temperature, which allows for it to only use air temperature and wind speed data as meteorological inputs. Another strength of the scheme is that a walking person’s metabolic heat flux density is also simply simulated without having to regard any thermoregulation processes. Human thermal load in the above region is characterised by a representative adult Hungarian male and female with a body mass index of 23–27 kgm⁻². Our most important findings are as follows: (1) human thermal load in the Carpathian region is relief dependent; (2) the scheme cannot be applied in the lowland areas of the region in the month of July since the energy balance is not met; (3) in the same areas but during the course of the year, clothing thermal resistance values are between 0.4 and 1 clo; (4) clothing thermal resistance can reach 1–1.2 clo in the mountains in the month of July, but during the course of the year this value is 1.8 clo; and (5) the highest clothing thermal resistance values can be found in January reaching about 2.5 clo. The scheme may be easily applied to any another region by determining new, region-specific, operative temperature–air temperature relationships. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers for Section "Climate Dynamics and Modelling")

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15 pages, 4762 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluating the Influence of CAM5 Aerosol Configuration on Simulated Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic

by J. Jacob A. Huff, Kevin A. Reed, Julio T. Bacmeister and Michael F. Wehner

Climate 2022, 10(9), 130; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090130 - 31 Aug 2022

Viewed by 6412

Abstract

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, [...] Read more.

This study examines the influence of prescribed and prognostic aerosol model configurations on the formation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic Ocean in Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). The impact of aerosol parameterization is examined by investigating storm track density, genesis density, potential intensity, and genesis potential index. This work shows that both CAM5 configurations simulate reduced storm frequency when compared to observations and that differences in TC climatology between the model configurations can be explained by differences in the large-scale environment. The analysis shows that simulation with the prognostic aerosol parameterization scheme reasonably captures the observed interannual variability in tropical cyclones and aerosols (i.e., dust) in the North Atlantic, while simulation with the prescribed configuration (climatology) is less favorable. The correlation between dust and TCs in observations (i.e., reanalysis and satellite datasets) is shown to be negative, and this relationship was also found for the prognostic aerosol configuration despite an overall decrease in the frequency of TCs. This indicates that, to accurately replicate certain aspects of TC interannual variability, the aerosol configuration within CAM5 needs to account for the appropriate dust variability. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes)

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15 pages, 605 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Public Perceptions on Human Health Risks of Climate Change in Cyprus: 2018 and 2021 Survey Results

by Corina Konstantinou, Christina Xeni, Eva M. van Bergen Henegouw, Nita Chaudhuri, Carijn Beumer and Konstantinos C. Makris

Climate 2022, 10(9), 129; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090129 - 31 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2618

Abstract

Understanding public perceptions on the health impacts of climate change will help to better address planetary health challenges. This study aimed to assess differences in perceptions in the Cypriot population regarding climate-related health risks, information sources used, and self-assessed health status over a [...] Read more.

Understanding public perceptions on the health impacts of climate change will help to better address planetary health challenges. This study aimed to assess differences in perceptions in the Cypriot population regarding climate-related health risks, information sources used, and self-assessed health status over a three-year period, along with the relationship between sociodemographics and perceptions on climate-related health risks. Two cross-sectional surveys on environmental health risks and climate change, information sources, and self-assessed health were conducted in July–December 2018 (n = 185) and August–September 2021 (n = 202) among adults living in Cyprus. A descriptive analysis of the survey responses was conducted. Between-survey and within-survey associations were examined among environmental and health risk perceptions and stratified by sociodemographics (age, sex, educational level) using chi-square tests. The perceived views on most questions about environmental health risks and climate change were not different between the two surveys (p > 0.05). With environmental factors in mind, such as climate change, pollution, and toxic waste, most respondents (>72%) considered that health issues such as asthma, cancer, obesity, type II diabetes, and high blood pressure would occur much more often or somewhat more often in the next 10 years. In both surveys, the most popular sources of information about environmental health risks were social media/the internet, followed by TV news and TV films and documentaries. Notable differences in several perceptions on climate-related health risks were observed between females and males, while age and educational level did not influence most perceptions. Women were more likely than men to report that environmental factors such as temperature rise, extreme weather events, and air pollution will be extremely influenced by climate change (p < 0.05). The study survey populations recognized the important linkages between climate change and human health, including their drivers. Sex was an important factor for differentiated perceptions on environmental health risks and climate change. Such survey results on perceptions about climate change and their impact on population health can be used to inform public awareness and risk communication campaigns. Full article

(This article belongs to the Section Climate Adaptation and Mitigation)

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25 pages, 6658 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of ECMWF-SEAS5 Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Predictions over South America

by Glauber W. S. Ferreira, Michelle S. Reboita and Anita Drumond

Climate 2022, 10(9), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090128 - 29 Aug 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3154

Abstract

Nowadays, a challenge in Climate Science is the seasonal forecast and knowledge of the model’s performance in different regions. The challenge in South America reflects its huge territory; some models present a good performance, and others do not. Nevertheless, reliable seasonal climate forecasts [...] Read more.

Nowadays, a challenge in Climate Science is the seasonal forecast and knowledge of the model’s performance in different regions. The challenge in South America reflects its huge territory; some models present a good performance, and others do not. Nevertheless, reliable seasonal climate forecasts can benefit numerous decision-making processes related to agriculture, energy generation, and extreme events mitigation. Thus, given the few works assessing the ECMWF-SEAS5 performance in South America, this study investigated the quality of its seasonal temperature and precipitation predictions over the continent. For this purpose, predictions from all members of the hindcasts (1993–2016) and forecasts (2017–2021) ensemble were used, considering the four yearly seasons. The analyses included seasonal mean fields, bias correction, anomaly correlations, statistical indicators, and seasonality index. The best system’s performance occurred in regions strongly influenced by teleconnection effects, such as northern South America and northeastern Brazil, in which ECMWF-SEAS5 even reproduced the extreme precipitation anomalies that happened in recent decades. Moreover, the system indicated a moderate capability of seasonal predictions in medium and low predictability regions. In summary, the results show that ECMWF-SEAS5 climate forecasts are potentially helpful and should be considered to plan various strategic activities better. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Extremes: Human-Environment Consequences and Adaptation Measures)

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15 pages, 4472 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Upscaling Gross Primary Production from Leaf to Canopy for Potato Crop (Solanum tuberosum L.)

by Fabio Ernesto Martínez-Maldonado, Angela María Castaño-Marín, Gerardo Antonio Góez-Vinasco and Fabio Ricardo Marin

Climate 2022, 10(9), 127; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090127 - 29 Aug 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2553

Abstract

Estimating gross primary production (GPP) is important to understand the land–atmosphere CO₂ exchange for major agroecosystems. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements provide accurate and reliable information about GPP, but flux measurements are often not available. Upscaling strategies gain importance as an alternative to [...] Read more.

Estimating gross primary production (GPP) is important to understand the land–atmosphere CO₂ exchange for major agroecosystems. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements provide accurate and reliable information about GPP, but flux measurements are often not available. Upscaling strategies gain importance as an alternative to the limitations of the use of the EC. Although the potato provides an important agroecosystem for worldwide carbon balance, there are currently no studies on potato GPP upscaling processes. This study reports two GPP scaling-up approaches from the detailed leaf-level characterization of gas exchange of potatoes. Multilayer and big leaf approaches were applied for extrapolating chamber and biometric measurements from leaf to canopy. Measurements of leaf area index and photosynthesis were performed from planting to the end of the canopy life cycle using an LP-80 ceptometer and an IRGA Li-Cor 6800, respectively. The results were compared to concurrent measurements of surface–atmosphere GPP from the EC measurements. Big-leaf models were able to simulate the general trend of GPP during the growth cycle, but they overestimated the GPP during the maximum LAI phase. Multilayer models correctly reproduced the behavior of potato GPP and closely predicted both: the daily magnitude and half-hourly variation in GPP when compared to EC measurements. Upscaling is a reliable alternative, but a good treatment of LAI and the photosynthetic light-response curves are decisive factors to achieve better GPP estimates. The results improved the knowledge of the biophysical control in the carbon fluxes of the potato crop. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Forest Management Focused on Climate Change Mitigation: The Development of Long-Term Carbon Sinks)

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14 pages, 1522 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Periods and Amplitudes of Southern Pine Beetle Infestations under Climate Change

by Hyunjin An and Jianbang Gan

Climate 2022, 10(9), 126; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090126 - 28 Aug 2022

Viewed by 1915

Abstract

The southern pine beetle (SPB), Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, is one of the most destructive insects to pine forests in North and Central America. Historical SPB infestations have shown strong cyclical patterns and are attributed to an array of abiotic and biotic factors with [...] Read more.

The southern pine beetle (SPB), Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann, is one of the most destructive insects to pine forests in North and Central America. Historical SPB infestations have shown strong cyclical patterns and are attributed to an array of abiotic and biotic factors with climatic conditions being the dominant. Climate change has been projected to increase SPB infestations; however, its impacts on the cyclical patterns of SPB infestations remain unknown. Here, we estimated the statistical relationship between SPB infestations and climatic and other factors using generalized linear regression modeling and historical data, analyzed the cyclical patterns of SPB infestations via periodogram analysis and explored how these patterns would evolve with the projected future climate change in 11 states of the Southern United States. We found that SPB infestations intensified with increases in seasonal average temperatures and minimum winter temperatures and decreases in spring and winter precipitations. Compared to the historical SPB infestation patterns, climate change was estimated to nearly double SPB infestation frequencies although with smaller amplitudes in the region. Our findings advance the understanding of cyclical patterns of SPB infestations, especially climate change impacts on such patterns, aiding in developing and deploying future SPB management practices and strategies. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change and Deforestation and Forest Degradation)

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21 pages, 1018 KiB

Open AccessReview

Effectiveness of Drought Indices in the Assessment of Different Types of Droughts, Managing and Mitigating Their Effects

by Jean Marie Ndayiragije and Fan Li

Climate 2022, 10(9), 125; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090125 - 25 Aug 2022

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 6242

Abstract

Droughts are the most destructive catastrophes in the world. The persistence of drought is considered to cause many challenges for both humans and animals and ruins the ecosystem. These challenges have encouraged scientists to search for innovative methods and models that are effective [...] Read more.

Droughts are the most destructive catastrophes in the world. The persistence of drought is considered to cause many challenges for both humans and animals and ruins the ecosystem. These challenges have encouraged scientists to search for innovative methods and models that are effective for assessing and predicting drought events. The use of drought indices has been extensively employed in many regions across the globe and their effectiveness demonstrated. This review illustrates the effectiveness of drought indices in the assessment of droughts, with a focus on drought management and mitigation measures. Additionally, several ways of managing drought risk and proactive strategies that need to be implemented to mitigate droughts have been illustrated. In conclusion, this article suggests that drought mitigation should be done more naturally, in ways that strongly protect the environment rather than involve engineering projects which might cause the degradation of rivers and land, and damage the ecosystem. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Natural Disasters and Extreme Hazards under Changing Climate)

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20 pages, 562 KiB

Open AccessReview

Implications of Regional Droughts and Transboundary Drought Risks on Drought Monitoring and Early Warning: A Review

by Sivapuram Venkata Rama Krishna Prabhakar

Climate 2022, 10(9), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10090124 - 23 Aug 2022

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3081

Abstract

Regional droughts are increasing in frequency and climate change projections indicate an exacerbation in the occurrence of regional droughts in the future. Droughts are complex hydrometeorological events, and the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships across administrative and political borders can make drought management a [...] Read more.

Regional droughts are increasing in frequency and climate change projections indicate an exacerbation in the occurrence of regional droughts in the future. Droughts are complex hydrometeorological events, and the complexity of cause-and-effect relationships across administrative and political borders can make drought management a challenge. While countries are largely focused on assessing drought impacts within their borders, thereby providing focused information for the relevant administration, the impact on communities, industries, and countries that are distantly connected with the affected location must also be taken into consideration. If not considered, drought impacts can be underestimated, and adaptation actions undertaken may not completely address the drought risks. Understanding transboundary drought risks is an important and integral part of drought risk reduction and it will grow in importance as the world experiences more integration at regional and global levels on multiple fronts. To address drought risks comprehensively, the new paradigm demands that the impacts of regional droughts are fully understood, that this understanding is incorporated into drought monitoring and early warning systems, and that drought early warning information is provided to all stakeholders, including those beyond the boundaries of the affected region, thereby eliciting appropriate action. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Early Warning)

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