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Application of Decision-Making Approaches under Uncertainty for Sustainable Transport

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Sustainable Transportation".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 December 2023) | Viewed by 20706

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering, University of Belgrade, Belgrade, Serbia
Interests: operations research; decision support systems; transportation engineering; multi-criteria decision-making; waste management
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

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Guest Editor
Sustainable Transportation Research Group, Civil Engineering, School of Engineering, University of Kwazulu Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa
Interests: applied systems analysis; sustainable development; MCDM; road engineering; transport

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Today, modern transport serves diverse geographical locations because the places of production and consumption are in different locations, very often with long distances between them. In such conditions, the whole transport system is exposed to uncertainty, vagueness, and, in some cases, imprecision. This is especially expressed  by trends toward performing activities in a sustainable way and when the geographical locations connected by transport are very remote. Sustainable transport requires adequate and timely decision making in order to improve quality and ensure efficiency. Multi-criteria decision making appears as one of the most important fields of operational research in the last 15 years, with newly developed methods and uncertainty approaches. There are various criteria that need to be considered to address the problems in sustainable transportation, which can be crucial for the overall sustainability in logistics and sustainable supply chains. In this regard, theories such as fuzzy set theory, neutrosophic theory, rough set, and uncertainty theory can provide real-time solutions to uncertainty problems. 

We invite authors to submit the original research articles which propose novel decision/making models considering transport.

Dr. Željko Stević
Dr. Vladimir Simic
Dr. Dillip Kumar Das
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Sustainability is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

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Keywords

  • MCDM tools in sustainable logistics scheduling
  • network optimization in freight transport
  • logistics network nodes’ location selection
  • risk analysis/modeling of transport
  • applications of MCDM methods as support in creating innovation of transport
  • ecological transportation decision making
  • systems of transport terminals
  • evaluation of logistics activities
  • modelling of sustainable traffic systems
  • impact of automatization in transport

Published Papers (13 papers)

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Research

34 pages, 3069 KiB  
Article
Multi-Criteria System’s Design Methodology for Selecting Open Pits Dump Trucks
by Aleksandr Rakhmangulov, Konstantin Burmistrov and Nikita Osintsev
Sustainability 2024, 16(2), 863; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16020863 - 19 Jan 2024
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 761
Abstract
The sustainable development and operation of mining enterprises as major sources of economic growth in many countries is determined by a balance of economic, environmental, and social objectives and the resources required to achieve these objectives. Transportation is one of the main equipment [...] Read more.
The sustainable development and operation of mining enterprises as major sources of economic growth in many countries is determined by a balance of economic, environmental, and social objectives and the resources required to achieve these objectives. Transportation is one of the main equipment at open pits. It accounts for up to 70% of open pit operating expenses. Various parameters of transportation means should be coordinated both with the parameters of the open pit and meet the conditions of its operation. The authors have developed a universal system of criteria for selecting a dump truck model for open pit conditions. The novelty of the proposed system lies in the complex consideration of all known factors to date and criteria of dump truck selection and the allocation of four groups of criteria: technical, technological, environmental, economic, and organizational. The groups of criteria and specific criteria in each group were ranked by the degree of importance using the multi-criteria decision-making method FUCOM (Full Consistency Method). The methodology of creating criteria systems in conditions of influence on the choice of alternatives of a set of interrelated factors is presented. The peculiarity of the methodology is the evaluation of different sets of criteria by several groups of experts with different competencies. The obtained criterion ranks are recommended to be used by managers of mining enterprises to choose a dump truck model. The presented methodology is suitable for the development of new systems of criteria, considering significant changes in operating conditions or the emergence of factors not considered in this study. Evaluation of all models of dump trucks on the market using the developed system of criteria is envisaged by the authors in a future study. Full article
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23 pages, 4551 KiB  
Article
Route Planning under Mobility Restrictions in the Palestinian Territories
by Hala Aburas, Isam Shahrour and Carlo Giglio
Sustainability 2024, 16(2), 660; https://doi.org/10.3390/su16020660 - 11 Jan 2024
Viewed by 579
Abstract
This study aims to enhance people’s mobility in the context of mobility restrictions in the Palestinian territories, West Bank. It aims to develop a comprehensive route planning model that prioritises safety and optimises travel time while also considering sustainability issues. Unlike previous research, [...] Read more.
This study aims to enhance people’s mobility in the context of mobility restrictions in the Palestinian territories, West Bank. It aims to develop a comprehensive route planning model that prioritises safety and optimises travel time while also considering sustainability issues. Unlike previous research, which has often focused solely on traffic crashes and physical road considerations in safety route planning, this study addresses the gap by developing a comprehensive model that integrates new risk criteria including mobility restrictions and violent events. The methodology involves historical and real-time data collection and processing, machine learning-based travel time prediction, and route optimisation using Dijkstra’s algorithm. The results highlight the significant impact of violent incidents on comprehensive risk scores, offering insights for proactive, sustainable measures. The waiting time prediction model performs strongly, with (R-squared) R2 values ranging from 80% to 92%. The developed route planning model provides three categorised routes under mobility restrictions—safest, fastest, and shortest—offering travellers sustainable and tailored options. Full article
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35 pages, 6917 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of the Transport Environmental Effects of an Urban Road Network in a Medium-Sized City in a Developing Country
by Warunvit Auttha and Pongrid Klungboonkrong
Sustainability 2023, 15(24), 16743; https://doi.org/10.3390/su152416743 - 11 Dec 2023
Viewed by 924
Abstract
A decision support model (DSM) involving a combination of five different prediction models for the environmental effects of transport and the powerful HMADM approach was introduced for the first time to assess the multiple criteria environmental effects of transport in an urban road [...] Read more.
A decision support model (DSM) involving a combination of five different prediction models for the environmental effects of transport and the powerful HMADM approach was introduced for the first time to assess the multiple criteria environmental effects of transport in an urban road network of the Khon Kaen Metropolitan Municipality (KKMM) in Khon Kaen City, Thailand. Five mathematical models were adopted to quantify the CO2 emissions (CO2Es), PM2.5 concentration (PM2.5C), CO concentrations (COCs), noise levels (NOLs), and pedestrian accident risk (PAR) values of all road segments in the study area. The FAHP, FSM, and TOPSIS were integrated into the HMADM to estimate the composite transport environmental effect scores (CTEESs) of each road segment. The FAHP was applied to determine the relative weights of each environmental criterion for three land use types, and the FSM was utilized to transform linguistic (fuzzy) scores into numerical (crisp) scores. Both the FAHP and FSM are principally used to deal with uncertain, incomplete, and ambiguous (fuzzy) information that appears during decision-making processes. Finally, TOPSIS was used to estimate the CTEESs of each road segment. An integrated DSM was applied to comprehend and evaluate each individual environmental criterion and the combined environmental criteria for each road segment in the study area. The DSM was employed to rank the problematic locations of all road segments. For instance, the ranking of the top 12 road segments with the greatest CTEESs was 75, 80, 48, 89, 76, 5, 64, 59, 60, 16, 65, and 62. In addition, this DSM can also be used to identify the possible causes of such locations and allocate limited government budgets for the implementation of appropriate remedial measures for resolving such environmental problems due to transport in an urban road network in the study area. Full article
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25 pages, 1171 KiB  
Article
Multi-Criteria Selection of Electric Delivery Vehicles Using Fuzzy–Rough Methods
by Ning Wang, Yong Xu, Adis Puška, Željko Stević and Adel Fahad Alrasheedi
Sustainability 2023, 15(21), 15541; https://doi.org/10.3390/su152115541 - 01 Nov 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 843
Abstract
Urban logistics implementation causes environmental pollution; therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact on the environment when carrying out such logistics. Electric vehicles are alternative vehicles that reduce the impact on the environment. For this reason, this study investigated which electric vehicle [...] Read more.
Urban logistics implementation causes environmental pollution; therefore, it is necessary to consider the impact on the environment when carrying out such logistics. Electric vehicles are alternative vehicles that reduce the impact on the environment. For this reason, this study investigated which electric vehicle has the best indicators for urban logistics. An innovative approach when selecting such vehicles is the application of a fuzzy–rough method based on expert decision making, whereby the decision-making process is adapted to the decision makers. In this case, two methods of multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) were used: SWARA (stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis) and MARCOS (measurement alternatives and ranking according to compromise solution). By applying the fuzzy–rough approach, uncertainty is included when making a decision, and it is possible to use linguistic values. The results obtained by the fuzzy–rough SWARA method showed that the range and price of electric vehicles have the greatest influence on the selection of an electric delivery vehicle. The results of applying the fuzzy–rough MARCOS method indicated that the Kangoo E-Tech Electric vehicle has the best characteristics according to experts’ estimates. These results were confirmed by validation and the application of sensitivity analysis. In urban logistics, the selection of an electric delivery vehicle helps to reduce the impact on the environment. By applying the fuzzy–rough approach, the decision-making problem is adjusted to the preferences of the decision makers who play a major role in purchasing a vehicle. Full article
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19 pages, 8131 KiB  
Article
Distribution Channel Selection Using FUCOM-ADAM: A Novel Approach
by Milan Andrejić, Vukašin Pajić and Milorad Kilibarda
Sustainability 2023, 15(19), 14527; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151914527 - 06 Oct 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 926
Abstract
The selection of the appropriate distribution channel is crucial for the success of any business dealing with physical goods. When dealing with this selection, it is crucial to have an effective decision support system (DSS) that can assist with such decisions. While various [...] Read more.
The selection of the appropriate distribution channel is crucial for the success of any business dealing with physical goods. When dealing with this selection, it is crucial to have an effective decision support system (DSS) that can assist with such decisions. While various DSS approaches exist in the literature, not all are suitable for real-world applications. This research aims to address this gap by developing practical DSS tools that can aid decision-makers in making optimal decisions even in situations of uncertainty. The paper explores six different distribution channels (retailer’s warehouse, wholesaler’s warehouse, manufacturer’s warehouse, cross-dock, 3PL services, and direct delivery) in order to select the optimal one based on nine established criteria (inventory costs, distribution costs, delivery speed, service level, market coverage, product availability, order consolidation capability, reverse logistics, and order tracking) by using the FUCOM (Full Consistency Method) and ADAM (Axial-Distance-Based Aggregated Measurement) methods. After applying the FUCOM method, C1 (inventory costs) had the highest value when observing criteria weights, whereas C9 (order tracking) had the lowest. The results of the ADAM method showed that A5 (3PL services) was the best-ranked alternative, whereas A4 (cross-dock) was ranked as the worst. Based on the results, a model validation, and sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine whether the final ranking of the alternatives will change. This research provides decision makers with the necessary tools for better decision making, leading to improved distribution operations and increased profitability for the business. Full article
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22 pages, 4618 KiB  
Article
Green Distribution Route Optimization of Medical Relief Supplies Based on Improved NSGA-II Algorithm under Dual-Uncertainty
by Shuyue Peng, Qinming Liu and Jiarui Hu
Sustainability 2023, 15(15), 11939; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151511939 - 03 Aug 2023
Viewed by 986
Abstract
With growing concerns about environmental issues, sustainable transport schemes are receiving more attention than ever before. Reducing pollutant emissions during vehicle driving is an essential way of achieving sustainable transport plans. To achieve sustainable transport and reduce carbon emissions, on the premise of [...] Read more.
With growing concerns about environmental issues, sustainable transport schemes are receiving more attention than ever before. Reducing pollutant emissions during vehicle driving is an essential way of achieving sustainable transport plans. To achieve sustainable transport and reduce carbon emissions, on the premise of ensuring rescue timeliness, this research proposes a multi-objective distribution route optimization model considering the minimization of transportation cost and transportation risk under dual-uncertainty constraints, providing a practical framework for determining the optimal location of rescue centers and distribution routes in emergencies using fuzzy theory. First, this paper proposes objective functions that innovatively take into account the congestion risk and accident risk during the distribution of medical supplies while introducing the carbon emission cost into the transportation cost and using the fuzzy demand for supplies and the fuzzy traffic flow on the roads as uncertainty constraints. Then, this paper designs a multi-strategy hybrid nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (MHNSGA-II) based on the original form to solve the model. MHNSGA-II adapts a two-stage real number coding method for chromosomes and optimizes the population initialization, crowding distances selection, and crossover and mutation probability calculation methods. The relevant case analysis demonstrates that, compared with the original NSGA-II, MHNSGA-II can decrease the transportation cost and transportation risk by 42.55% and 5.73%, respectively. The sensitivity analysis verifies the validity and rationality of the proposed model. The proposed framework can assist decision makers in emergency logistics rescue. Full article
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18 pages, 836 KiB  
Article
Exploring Public Perceptions and Disposal Procedures in the Development of a Comprehensive End-of-Life Vehicle Regulation in Malaysia: A Pilot Study
by Hasani Mohd Ali, Vladimir Simic, Charli Sitinjak, Jady Zaidi Hassim, Muhamad Helmi Md Said, Rasyikah Md Khalid, Grace Emmanuel Kaka and Rozmi Ismail
Sustainability 2023, 15(6), 4786; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15064786 - 08 Mar 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1742
Abstract
The growing global demand for new cars has resulted in a rise in end-of-life vehicles (ELV), both with usable and non-usable parts. Malaysia faces a particularly pressing issue of abandoned vehicles (AVs), as the country currently lacks comprehensive legislation for managing ELV. On [...] Read more.
The growing global demand for new cars has resulted in a rise in end-of-life vehicles (ELV), both with usable and non-usable parts. Malaysia faces a particularly pressing issue of abandoned vehicles (AVs), as the country currently lacks comprehensive legislation for managing ELV. On the other hand, countries such as the US, Japan, Belgium, Korea, and China have well-established ELV management policies. In light of this, a pilot study assessed the public’s perception and attitudes towards ELV issues and regulations in Malaysia. The study gathered participants’ views on surrender, deregistration, disposal costs, incentives, recycling, and ELV regulations. The questionnaire used in the study was based on the findings from a previous report. The data were analysed using SPSS version 27, based on 40 interviews with diverse participants. The results of the study revealed three primary themes: “AV and its ELV”, “ELV disposal procedures”, and “ELV regulation and conflict resolution”, with 14 sub-themes. The study adopts a regulatory approach towards ELV and AVs and highlights the importance of an effective voluntary surrender system in Malaysia as a step towards comprehensive ELV regulation. The findings of this pilot study provide valuable insights into the Malaysian public’s views on ELV and can inform the development of more effective and comprehensive ELV legislation. Full article
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14 pages, 8663 KiB  
Article
Logistics Village Location with Capacity Planning Problem, an MILP Model Approach
by Amirhossein Baghestani, Mohammadhossein Abbasi, Saeed Rastegar, Amir Reza Mamdoohi, Atoosa Afaghpoor and Mahmoud Saffarzadeh
Sustainability 2023, 15(5), 4633; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15054633 - 05 Mar 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1652
Abstract
The optimal location for establishing logistics centers is of great importance in reducing logistics costs and improving supply chain efficiency. This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework for finding the optimal location and capacity for a logistics village establishment using mixed-integer linear [...] Read more.
The optimal location for establishing logistics centers is of great importance in reducing logistics costs and improving supply chain efficiency. This paper aims to provide a conceptual framework for finding the optimal location and capacity for a logistics village establishment using mixed-integer linear programming (MILP). The proposed model is applied on Qazvin province, Iran, as a developing country with a strategic location in international transport corridors. Unlike previous research, the proposed approach considers various logistics operations such as warehousing, refrigeration, sorting, and packaging, along with their capacities as distinct decision variables. The study area is divided into 6972 blocks of 1.5 × 1.5 km, of which 59% are infeasible and excluded due to environmental and natural hazard constraints. The MILP model is then applied in the GAMS for each feasible block to identify the best alternatives for the logistic village establishment with maximum total profit. Based on the results, total freight imported to Qazvin province is directly transferred to their final destinations without visiting the logistics village, while around 98% of exports of Qazvin province would first enter the logistics village to get a service before delivering to customers. Full article
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26 pages, 5394 KiB  
Article
Simulation Study on Topology Characteristics and Cascading Failure of Hefei Subway Network
by Xiaohong Yin and Jiakun Wu
Sustainability 2023, 15(1), 422; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010422 - 27 Dec 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1165
Abstract
The structural characteristics and robustness of subway networks are important for improving the safety and efficiency of subway operations. Based on complex network theory, this study analyzed the structural characteristics of the Hefei subway network and evaluated its robustness after suffering from accidents. [...] Read more.
The structural characteristics and robustness of subway networks are important for improving the safety and efficiency of subway operations. Based on complex network theory, this study analyzed the structural characteristics of the Hefei subway network and evaluated its robustness after suffering from accidents. Specifically: (1) A model of the Hefei subway network was established using the space-L method, and its topological structural characteristics were quantitatively analyzed; (2) An improved cascading failure simulation model was established, and a node importance evaluation system was developed to identify the critical nodes in the Hefei subway network; (3) A simulation analysis was conducted to evaluate the robustness of the Hefei subway network under different scenarios. The results show that the Hefei subway network is different from a scale-free network and small-world network, and the structure was most severely damaged when facing attacks against critical nodes in the cascading failure scenario. Moreover, as the value of the parameter of the control node capacity in the cascade failure model varied, the degree of damage to the subway network also varied considerably. We believe that the results obtained from the study could provide a reference for the construction and planning of the subway network. Full article
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21 pages, 592 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Hybrid MCDM Methods for the Performance Assessment and Ranking Public Transport Sector: A Case Study
by Swati Goyal, Shivi Agarwal, Narinderjit Singh Sawaran Singh, Trilok Mathur and Nirbhay Mathur
Sustainability 2022, 14(22), 15110; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215110 - 15 Nov 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1634
Abstract
The quality of the public transport sector affects the economy and the daily livelihoods of passengers. One of the most important objectives of policymakers is to choose the influencing criteria for performance evaluations. A variety of factors are crucial for raising the standards [...] Read more.
The quality of the public transport sector affects the economy and the daily livelihoods of passengers. One of the most important objectives of policymakers is to choose the influencing criteria for performance evaluations. A variety of factors are crucial for raising the standards of public transportation services. In this investigation, we used a decision-based model with uncertainty in order to identify significant criteria in the public transport sector. We also performed a comparative analysis to rank the Rajasthan State Road Transport Corporation (RSRTC) bus depots based on their performance using hybrid multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) techniques such as TOPSIS, VIKOR, and ELECTRE. To handle judgement ambiguities, in this work we incorporated the Delphi method (DM) and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), along with fuzzy set theory. The fuzzy Delphi method was used to filter the important criteria. Using a fuzzy AHP approach, the screening criterion weights and rankings were determined. Furthermore, the bus depots were ranked using TOPSIS, VIKOR, and ELECTRE. Our findings can be applied in assisting policy-managers in formulating appropriate policies targeted at improving the overall health and competitiveness of bus depots using significant criteria and associated key indicators. In this study we investigated performance measures and proposed recommendations for the sustainable development of transportation in India. Full article
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15 pages, 737 KiB  
Article
Determining Risk Factors That Influence Cycling Crash Severity, for the Purpose of Setting Sustainable Cycling Mobility
by Filip Filipović, Dušan Mladenović, Krsto Lipovac, Dillip Kumar Das and Bojana Todosijević
Sustainability 2022, 14(20), 13091; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142013091 - 12 Oct 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1468
Abstract
This paper has, for the purpose of setting sustainable cycling mobility, identified and assessed basic risk factors influencing crash severity. The study has examined risk factors for cyclist injuries and fatalities, according to the characteristics relative to cyclists, roads, vehicles and environment posing [...] Read more.
This paper has, for the purpose of setting sustainable cycling mobility, identified and assessed basic risk factors influencing crash severity. The study has examined risk factors for cyclist injuries and fatalities, according to the characteristics relative to cyclists, roads, vehicles and environment posing the risk of cyclist fatalities or serious injuries. The method of Binary logistic regression has been used as the study to analyze a sample of 21,235 traffic crashes involving cyclists in Serbia, over the period 2010–2021. The task was not to define the equations for risk prediction, but to determine the injury and fatality risk factors for cyclists. The results of this study show that cyclists older than 60 have a higher probability of being injured. Cyclists are more likely to be injured or killed on weekdays than on weekends, as well as in conditions of twilight. The odds of fatality and injury outside built-up areas are higher, while the odds of sustaining a serious injury are higher in built-up areas. The results of this study indicate significant overlapping with the previous research related to the analysis of factors influencing the severity of cyclist crashes. These results can be important for the policy makers and stakeholders involved, as they can help them gain clear understanding of the current road safety situation, for the purpose of creating an opportunity for developing best action plans and practical measures in the process of implementing sustainable urban mobility planning. Full article
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27 pages, 1689 KiB  
Article
Toward Sustainable Urban Mobility by Using Fuzzy-FUCOM and Fuzzy-CoCoSo Methods: The Case of the SUMP Podgorica
by Gülay Demir, Milanko Damjanović, Boško Matović and Radoje Vujadinović
Sustainability 2022, 14(9), 4972; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14094972 - 21 Apr 2022
Cited by 20 | Viewed by 2723
Abstract
Sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs) have become increasingly popular in cities with environmental problems to reduce pollution, often caused by urban transportation. Therefore, this study aims to provide a practical framework for the selection decisions of final measures and policies to be carried [...] Read more.
Sustainable urban mobility plans (SUMPs) have become increasingly popular in cities with environmental problems to reduce pollution, often caused by urban transportation. Therefore, this study aims to provide a practical framework for the selection decisions of final measures and policies to be carried out to achieve SUMP workspace goals using a fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methodology. Alternatives are created with the strategic “pillar”, which was first adopted by the Podgorica city council. With the measurements in this pillar, the main criteria and the recommended measures for these measures create sub-criteria. Secondly, a Fuzzy Full Consistency Method (F-FUCOM) was used to determine the weights of the main and sub-criteria. The Fuzzy Combined Compromise Solution (F-CoCoSo) method was then applied to rank the alternatives. “The implementation and assurance of the SUMP” and “establishing a system for regular data collection, monitoring and evaluation of selected mobility indicators” were decided as the most important main and sub-criteria with weights of 0.286 and 0.1079, respectively. The findings suggest that the comprehensive planning for sustainable urban mobility alternative is first and the valorization of cycling potential alternative is second. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis confirms the validity, robustness, and effectiveness of the proposed framework. The applied methodology has the potential to assist decision makers in the process of developing SUMPs. Full article
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18 pages, 962 KiB  
Article
SARIMA Modelling Approach for Forecasting of Traffic Accidents
by Nemanja Deretić, Dragan Stanimirović, Mohammed Al Awadh, Nikola Vujanović and Aleksandar Djukić
Sustainability 2022, 14(8), 4403; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14084403 - 07 Apr 2022
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 3182
Abstract
To achieve greater sustainability of the traffic system, the trend of traffic accidents in road traffic was analysed. Injuries from traffic accidents are among the leading factors in the suffering of people around the world. Injuries from road traffic accidents are predicted to [...] Read more.
To achieve greater sustainability of the traffic system, the trend of traffic accidents in road traffic was analysed. Injuries from traffic accidents are among the leading factors in the suffering of people around the world. Injuries from road traffic accidents are predicted to be the third leading factor contributing to human deaths. Road traffic accidents have decreased in most countries during the last decade because of the Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011–2020. The main reasons behind the reduction of traffic accidents are improvements in the construction of vehicles and roads, the training and education of drivers, and advances in medical technology and medical care. The primary objective of this paper is to investigate the pattern in the time series of traffic accidents in the city of Belgrade. Time series have been analysed using exploratory data analysis to describe and understand the data, the method of regression and the Box–Jenkins seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model (SARIMA). The study found that the time series has a pronounced seasonal character. The model presented in the paper has a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 5.22% and can be seen as an indicator that the prognosis is acceptably accurate. The forecasting, in the context of number of a traffic accidents, may be a strategy to achieve different goals such as traffic safety campaigns, traffic safety strategies and action plans to achieve the objectives defined in traffic safety strategies. Full article
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