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Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation

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A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073). This special issue belongs to the section "A: Sustainable Energy".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2021) | Viewed by 33712

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Dr. Panagiotis Fragkos

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E3Modelling (Panormou 70, Athens, Greece), and School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 15773 Athens, Greece
Interests: energy modelling; energy economics; energy systems analysis; climate change mitigation pathways
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Dr. Pelopidas Siskos

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Dear Colleagues,

The Paris Agreement establishes a process to combine Nationally Determined Contributions with the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and even to 1.5 °C. Responding to this challenge, national and regional low-emission strategies are prepared by EU and non-EU countries outlining clean energy transition pathways. The aim of this Special Issue is to provide rigorous quantitative assessment of the challenges, impacts and opportunities induced by ambitious low-emission pathways. It aims to explore how deep emission reductions can be achieved in all energy demand and supply sectors, exploring the interplay between mitigation options, including energy efficiency, renewable energy uptake and electrification to decarbonise inflexible end-uses such as mobility and heating. The high expansion of renewable energy poses high technical and economic challenges with regard to system configuration and market organisation, requiring the development of new options, such as batteries, prosumers, grid expansion, chemical storage through power-to-X and new tariff setting methods. The uptake of disruptive mitigation options (hydrogen, CCUS, clean e-fuels) as well as carbon dioxide removal (BECCS, direct air capture, others) may also be required in the case of net zero emission targets but raises market, regulatory and financial challenges. This Special Issue will assess low-emission strategies at the national and global level and their implications for energy system development, technology uptake, energy system costs as well as the socioeconomic and industrial impacts of low-emission transitions.

Dr. Panagiotis Fragkos
Dr. Pelopidas Siskos
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Energy system modelling
Deep decarbonisation pathways
Energy and climate policy analysis
Energy markets and climate change

Published Papers (11 papers)

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Editorial

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4 pages, 183 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation

by Panagiotis Fragkos and Pelopidas Siskos

Energies 2022, 15(6), 1971; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15061971 - 08 Mar 2022

Viewed by 1192

Abstract

The Paris Agreement establishes a process to combine Nationally Determined Contributions with the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 2 °C and even to 1 [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

Research

Jump to: Editorial

21 pages, 14564 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling the Transition towards a Carbon-Neutral Electricity System—Investment Decisions and Heterogeneity

by Jinxi Yang, Christian Azar and Kristian Lindgren

Energies 2022, 15(1), 84; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010084 - 23 Dec 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2334

Abstract

To achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement, greenhouse gas emissions from the electricity sector must be substantially reduced. We develop an agent-based model of the electricity system with heterogeneous agents who invest in power generating capacity under uncertainty. The heterogeneity is characterised by the hurdle rates the agents employ (to manage risk) and by their expectations of the future carbon prices. We analyse the impact of the heterogeneity on the transition to a low carbon electricity system. Results show that under an increasing CO₂ tax scenario, the agents start investing heavily in wind, followed by nuclear and to some extent in natural gas fired power plants both with and without carbon capture and storage as well as biogas fired power plants. However, the degree to which different technologies are used depend strongly on the carbon tax expectations and the hurdle rate employed by the agents. Comparing to the case with homogeneous agents, the introduction of heterogeneity among the agents leads to a faster CO₂ reduction. We also estimate the so called “cannibalisation effect” for wind and find that the absolute value of wind does not drop in response to higher deployment levels, but the relative value does decline. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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24 pages, 6807 KiB

Open AccessArticle

How to Reach the New Green Deal Targets: Analysing the Necessary Burden Sharing within the EU Using a Multi-Model Approach

by Felix Kattelmann, Jonathan Siegle, Roland Cunha Montenegro, Vera Sehn, Markus Blesl and Ulrich Fahl

Energies 2021, 14(23), 7971; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14237971 - 29 Nov 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1977

Abstract

The Green Deal of the European Union defines extremely ambitious climate targets for 2030 (−55% emissions compared to 1990) and 2050 (−100%), which go far beyond the current goals that the EU member states have agreed on thus far. The question of which sectors contribute how much has already been discussed, but is far from decided, while the question of which countries shoulder how much of the tightened reduction targets has hardly been discussed. We want to contribute significantly to answering these policy questions by analysing the necessary burden sharing within the EU from both an energy system and an overall macroeconomic perspective. For this purpose, we use the energy system model TIMES PanEU and the computational general equilibrium model NEWAGE. Our results show that excessively strong targets for the Emission Trading System (ETS) in 2030 are not system-optimal for achieving the 55% overall target, reductions should be made in such a way that an emissions budget ratio of 39 (ETS sector) to 61 (Non-ETS sector) results. Economically weaker regions would have to reduce their CO₂ emissions until 2030 by up to 33% on top of the currently decided targets in the Effort Sharing Regulation, which leads to higher energy system costs as well as losses in gross domestic product (GDP). Depending on the policy scenario applied, GDP losses in the range of −0.79% and −1.95% relative to baseline can be found for single EU regions. In the long-term, an equally strict mitigation regime for all countries in 2050 is not optimal from a system perspective; total system costs would be higher by 1.5%. Instead, some countries should generate negative net emissions to compensate for non-mitigable residual emissions from other countries. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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23 pages, 3339 KiB

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The Role of BECCS in Achieving Climate Neutrality in the European Union

by Igor Tatarewicz, Michał Lewarski, Sławomir Skwierz, Vitaliy Krupin, Robert Jeszke, Maciej Pyrka, Krystian Szczepański and Monika Sekuła

Energies 2021, 14(23), 7842; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14237842 - 23 Nov 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 4853

Abstract

The achievement of climate neutrality in the European Union by 2050 will not be possible solely through a reduction in fossil fuels and the development of energy generation from renewable sources. Large-scale implementation of various technologies is necessary, including bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), carbon capture and storage (CCS), and carbon capture and utilisation (CCU), as well as industrial electrification, the use of hydrogen, the expansion of electromobility, low-emission agricultural practices, and afforestation. This research is devoted to an analysis of BECCS as a negative emissions technology (NET) and the assessment of its implementation impact upon the possibility of achieving climate neutrality in the EU. The modelling approach utilises tools developed within the LIFE Climate CAKE PL project and includes the MEESA energy model and the d-PLACE CGE economic model. This article identifies the scope of the required investment in generation capacity and the amount of electricity production from BECCS necessary to meet the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets in the EU, examining the technology’s impact on the overall system costs and marginal abatement costs (MACs). The modelling results confirm the key role of BECCS technology in achieving EU climate goals by 2050. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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17 pages, 15677 KiB

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Automated Scheduling Approach under Smart Contract for Remote Wind Farms with Power-to-Gas Systems in Multiple Energy Markets

by Zhenya Ji, Zishan Guo, Hao Li and Qi Wang

Energies 2021, 14(20), 6781; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14206781 - 18 Oct 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1518

Abstract

The promising power-to-gas (P2G) technology makes it possible for wind farms to absorb carbon and trade in multiple energy markets. Considering the remoteness of wind farms equipped with P2G systems and the isolation of different energy markets, the scheduling process may suffer from inefficient coordination and unstable information. An automated scheduling approach is thus proposed. Firstly, an automated scheduling framework enabled by smart contract is established for reliable coordination between wind farms and multiple energy markets. Considering the limited logic complexity and insufficient calculation of smart contracts, an off-chain procedure as a workaround is proposed to avoid complex on-chain solutions. Next, a non-linear model of the P2G system is developed to enhance the accuracy of scheduling results. The scheduling strategy takes into account not only the revenues from multiple energy trades, but also the penalties for violating contract items in smart contracts. Then, the implementation of smart contracts under a blockchain environment is presented with multiple participants, including voting in an agreed scheduling result as the plan. Finally, the case study is conducted in a typical two-stage scheduling process—i.e., day-ahead and real-time scheduling—and the results verify the efficiency of the proposed approach. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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19 pages, 2292 KiB

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Is Green Recovery Enough? Analysing the Impacts of Post-COVID-19 Economic Packages

by Pedro R. R. Rochedo, Panagiotis Fragkos, Rafael Garaffa, Lilia Caiado Couto, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Bruno S. L. Cunha, Roberto Schaeffer and Alexandre Szklo

Energies 2021, 14(17), 5567; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14175567 - 06 Sep 2021

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 3983

Abstract

Emissions pathways after COVID-19 will be shaped by how governments’ economic responses translate into infrastructure expansion, energy use, investment planning and societal changes. As a response to the COVID-19 crisis, most governments worldwide launched recovery packages aiming to boost their economies, support employment and enhance their competitiveness. Climate action is pledged to be embedded in most of these packages, but with sharp differences across countries. This paper provides novel evidence on the energy system and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions implications of post-COVID-19 recovery packages by assessing the gap between pledged recovery packages and the actual investment needs of the energy transition to reach the Paris Agreement goals. Using two well-established Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) and analysing various scenarios combining recovery packages and climate policies, we conclude that currently planned recovery from COVID-19 is not enough to enhance societal responses to climate urgency and that it should be significantly upscaled and prolonged to ensure compatibility with the Paris Agreement goals. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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19 pages, 287 KiB

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The Impact of Carbon Disclosure on Financial Performance under Low Carbon Constraints

by Wenting Lu, Naiping Zhu and Jing Zhang

Energies 2021, 14(14), 4126; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144126 - 08 Jul 2021

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 4152

Abstract

In the context of low-carbon constrained development, in order to avoid the risk brought by climate change, more and more companies choose to disclose carbon information, respond to the national policy of carbon emission reduction and focus on the sustainable development of enterprises. This paper will investigate the impact of carbon disclosure on financial performance based on the 2011–2018 CDP report, taking the Fortune 500 companies as a sample. The study finds that for carbon-intensive industries, carbon disclosure cannot significantly contribute to the improvement of financial performance in the current period, but for carbon-non-intensive industries, carbon disclosure can significantly contribute to the improvement of financial performance in the current period, and the positive impact of carbon disclosure on financial performance in the current period can be extended to the next period. Finally, based on the findings of the empirical study, this paper puts forward policy recommendations for the construction of China’s carbon disclosure system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

21 pages, 4639 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Technical and Economic Analysis of the Supercritical Combined Gas-Steam Cycle

by Marcin Jamróz, Marian Piwowarski, Paweł Ziemiański and Gabriel Pawlak

Energies 2021, 14(11), 2985; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14112985 - 21 May 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2173

Abstract

Combined cycle power plants are characterized by high efficiency, now exceeding 60%. The record-breaking power plant listed in the Guinness Book of World Records is the Nishi-Nagoya power plant commissioned in March 2018, located in Japan, and reaching the gross efficiency of 63.08%. Research and development centers, energy companies, and scientific institutions are taking various actions to increase this efficiency. Both the gas turbine and the steam turbine of the combined cycle are modified. The main objective of this paper is to improve the gas-steam cycle efficiency and to reach the efficiency that is higher than in the record-breaking Nishi-Nagoya power plant. To do so, a number of numerical calculations were performed for the cycle design similar to the one used in the Nishi-Nagoya power plant. The paper assumes the use of the same gas turbines as in the reference power plant. The process of recovering heat from exhaust gases had to be organized so that the highest capacity and efficiency were achieved. The analyses focused on the selection of parameters and the modification of the cycle design in the steam part area in order to increase overall efficiency. As part of the calculations, the appropriate selection of the most favorable thermodynamic parameters of the steam at the inlet to the high-pressure (HP) part of the turbine (supercritical pressure) allowed the authors to obtain the efficiency and the capacity of 64.45% and about 1.214 GW respectively compared to the reference values of 63.08% and 1.19 GW. The authors believe that efficiency can be improved further. One of the methods to do so is to continue increasing the high-pressure steam temperature because it is the first part of the generator into which exhaust gases enter. The economic analysis revealed that the difference between the annual revenue from the sale of electricity and the annual fuel cost is considerably higher for power plants set to supercritical parameters, reaching approx. USD 14 million per annum. It is proposed that investments in adapting components of the steam part to supercritical parameters may be balanced out by a higher profit. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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24 pages, 327 KiB

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Simulating the Evolution of Business Models for Electricity Recharging Infrastructure Development by 2030: A Case Study for Greece

by Stergios Statharas, Yannis Moysoglou, Pelopidas Siskos and Pantelis Capros

Energies 2021, 14(9), 2345; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092345 - 21 Apr 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2340

Abstract

It is widely accepted that the market uptake of electric vehicles is essential for the decarbonisation of transport. However, scaling up the roll out of electric vehicles (EV) is challenging considering the lack of charging infrastructure. The latter is, currently, developing in an uneven way across the EU countries. A charging infrastructure with wide coverage addresses range limitations but requires high investment with uncertain returns during the early years of deployment. The aim of this paper is to assess how different policy options affect EV penetration and the involvement of private sector in infrastructure deployment. We propose a mathematical programming model of the decision problem and the interaction between the actors of EV charging ecosystem and apply it to the case of Greece from the time period until 2030. Greece represents a typical example of a country with ambitious targets for EV penetration by 2030 (10% of the total stock) with limited effort made until now. The results indicate that it is challenging to engage private investors in the early years, even using subsidies; thus, publicly financed infrastructure deployment is important for the first years. In the mid-term, subsidization on the costs of charging points is necessary to positively influence the uptake of private investments. These are mainly attracted from 2025 onwards, after a critical mass of EVs and infrastructure has been deployed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

23 pages, 3835 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reducing the Decarbonisation Cost Burden for EU Energy-Intensive Industries

by Panagiotis Fragkos, Kostas Fragkiadakis and Leonidas Paroussos

Energies 2021, 14(1), 236; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14010236 - 05 Jan 2021

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3698

Abstract

Carbon leakage features prominently in the climate policy debate in economies implementing climate policies, especially in the EU. The imposition of carbon pricing impacts negatively the competitiveness of energy-intensive industries, inducing their relocation to countries with weaker environmental regulation. Unilateral climate policy may complement domestic emissions pricing with border carbon adjustment to reduce leakage and protect the competitiveness of domestic manufacturing. Here, we use an enhanced version of GEM-E3-FIT model to assess the macro-economic impacts when the EU unilaterally implements the EU Green Deal goals, leading to a leakage of 25% over 2020–2050. The size and composition, in terms of GHG and energy intensities, of the countries undertaking emission reductions matter for carbon leakage, which is significantly reduced when China joins the mitigation effort, as a result of its large market size and the high carbon intensity of its production. Chemicals and metals face the stronger risks for relocation to non-abating countries. The Border Carbon Adjustment can largely reduce leakage and the negative activity impacts on energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries of regulating countries, by shifting the emission reduction to non-abating countries through implicit changes in product prices. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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29 pages, 3409 KiB

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Low-Carbon R&D Can Boost EU Growth and Competitiveness

by Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos and Leonidas Paroussos

Energies 2020, 13(19), 5236; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13195236 - 08 Oct 2020

Cited by 22 | Viewed by 3193

Abstract

Research and Innovation (R&I) are a key part of the EU strategy towards stronger growth and the creation of more and better jobs while respecting social and climate objectives. In the last decades, improvements in costs and performance of low-carbon technologies triggered by R&I expenditures and learning-by-doing effects have increased their competitiveness compared to fossil fuel options. So, in the context of ambitious climate policies as described in the EU Green Deal, increased R&I expenditures can increase productivity and boost EU economic growth and competitiveness, especially in countries with large innovation and low-carbon manufacturing base. The analysis captures the different nature of public and private R&I, with the latter having more positive economic implications and higher efficiency as it is closer to industrial activities. Public R&D commonly focuses on immature highly uncertain technologies, which are also needed to achieve the climate neutrality target of the EU. The model-based assessment shows that a policy portfolio using part of carbon revenues for public and private R&D and development of the required skills can effectively alleviate decarbonisation costs, while promoting high value-added products and exports (e.g., low-carbon technologies), creating more high-quality jobs and contributing to climate change mitigation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Systems Analysis and Modelling towards Decarbonisation)

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