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Atmosphere
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Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis,...
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Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (3 November 2022) | Viewed by 15332

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Jing-Shan Hong

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei 100006, Taiwan
Interests: numerical weather prediction; ensemble prediction; data assimilation
Dr. Ling-Feng Hsiao

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Research and Development Center, Central Weather Bureau, Taipei 100006, Taiwan
Interests: mesoscale meteorology; precipitation modeling; numerical weather prediction

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Disaster prevention and water resources management have always been the most critical issues in Taiwan. These concerns range from catastrophic floods caused by short-duration heavy rainfall to short-term climate droughts. This is not the case only in Taiwan, these threats are also common concerns among neighboring countries in East Asia. Therefore, Atmosphere is dedicating this Special Issue to investigating the observation and forecast of rainfall with weather to climate time spans in Taiwan and neighboring East Asia regions. It is expected to be able to improve the understanding and enhance the precipitation prediction over Taiwan and the East Asia area.

We invite you to contribute to this Special Issue of Atmosphere with original research and review articles on topics including, but not limited to:

  • Development of gridded rainfall observations based on rain-gauge, remote sensing, and other observation systems;
  • Rainfall analysis based on the case associated with specific weather systems or statistics extended to a longer range;
  • Development of deterministic/probabilistic rainfall forecast techniques with data science approaches;
  • Development of quantitative precipitation forecast from nowcasting to short-term climate outlooks;
  • Projections of future precipitation characteristics and impact under different climate change scenarios.

Dr. Jing-Shan Hong
Dr. Ling-Feng Hsiao
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • rainfall analysis and forecast
  • data science
  • climate outlook
  • climate change scenarios
  • deterministic and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecast

Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

17 pages, 6769 KiB  
Article
Geostationary Precipitation Estimates by PDF Matching Technique over the Asia-Pacific and Its Improvement by Incorporating with Surface Data
by Yun-Lan Chen, Chia-Rong Chen and Pingping Xie
Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 342; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020342 - 08 Feb 2023
Viewed by 1388
Abstract
An Infrared (IR)-passive microwave (PMW) blended technique is developed to derive precipitation estimates over the Asia-Pacific domain through calibrating the temperature of brightness blackbody from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite to precipitation derived from the combined PMW retrievals (currently MWCOMB2x) based on the probability [...] Read more.
An Infrared (IR)-passive microwave (PMW) blended technique is developed to derive precipitation estimates over the Asia-Pacific domain through calibrating the temperature of brightness blackbody from the Japanese Himawari-8 satellite to precipitation derived from the combined PMW retrievals (currently MWCOMB2x) based on the probability density function (PDF)-matching concept. Called IRQPE, the technique is modified and fine-tuned to better represent the spatially rapidly changing cloud–precipitation relationship over the target region with PDF-matching tables established over a refined spatial resolution of 0.5° lat/lon grid. The evaluation of the IRQPE shows broadly comparable performance to that of the CMORPH2 in detecting rainfall systems of large and medium-scales at a resolution of 1.0° degree. Rainfall variations from the two datasets over El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Madden Julian Oscillation active convective centers show well consistency of each other, suggesting usefulness of the IRQPE in climate applications. Two approaches for regional improvements are explored by establishing the PDF tables for a further refined spatial resolution and by replacing the PMW-based precipitation ‘truth’ fields with the surface gauge data to overcome the shortcoming of PMW-based retrievals in capturing orographic rainfall over the Taiwan area. The results show significant improvements. The rainfall patterns of revised the IRQPE at a resolution of 0.1° degree on above the 5-day timescale correlate well with the Taiwan official surface ground truth called the QPESUMS, which is a gridded set of gauge-corrected Radar quantitative precipitation estimations. The root mean square error of the revised IRQPE on estimating the Taiwan overall land rainfall is close to Radar-derived rainfall accumulations on a 30-day time-scale. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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7 pages, 3312 KiB  
Article
A Revised Meiyu-Season Onset Index for Taiwan Based on ERA5
by Ching-Teng Lee, Shih-Yu Simon Wang and Tzu-Ting Lo
Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1762; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111762 - 26 Oct 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3669
Abstract
Revisiting the defined Meiyu onset of Central Weather Bureau (CWB), this study applied a newer reanalysis dataset and added multiple timing and duration criteria to improve the Meiyu onset index. The previous Meiyu onset index was based on horizontal and vertical wind shears [...] Read more.
Revisiting the defined Meiyu onset of Central Weather Bureau (CWB), this study applied a newer reanalysis dataset and added multiple timing and duration criteria to improve the Meiyu onset index. The previous Meiyu onset index was based on horizontal and vertical wind shears using older-generation reanalysis data. The horizontal shear captures the cyclonic vorticity while the vertical shear depicts overturning. However, this older index tends to predict the onset date too early from the actual maximum precipitation. After applying the modification that is described in this paper, the newer Meiyu onset index consistently leads the maximum precipitation in Taiwan only by a few days, except for two years over the 30-year analysis period. The implication of this modified and improved Meiyu onset index is that it can substitute model precipitation that tends to be problematic, as well as studying climate change impacts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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15 pages, 3730 KiB  
Article
Monitoring the Spring 2021 Drought Event in Taiwan Using Multiple Satellite-Based Vegetation and Water Indices
by Chien-Ben Chou, Min-Chuan Weng, Huei-Ping Huang, Yu-Cheng Chang, Ho-Chin Chang and Tzu-Ying Yeh
Atmosphere 2022, 13(9), 1374; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091374 - 26 Aug 2022
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1809
Abstract
The monitoring of droughts is practically important yet challenging due to the complexity of the phenomena. The occurrence of drought involves changes in meteorological conditions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture. To advance the techniques for detecting and monitoring droughts, this study explores the [...] Read more.
The monitoring of droughts is practically important yet challenging due to the complexity of the phenomena. The occurrence of drought involves changes in meteorological conditions, vegetation coverage and soil moisture. To advance the techniques for detecting and monitoring droughts, this study explores the usage of a suite of vegetation and water indices derived from high-resolution images produced by geostationary satellite Himawari-8. The technique is tested on the detection of the drought event in Spring 2021 across Taiwan due to deficit of precipitation in that season. It is found that the time series analysis of green chlorophyll index (CIgreen) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) helps detect the initiation of drought before its severity intensifies. The vegetation condition index (VCI) and vegetation health index (VHI) derived from GIgreen and NDVI are similarly useful for the early warning of a drought event. In addition to vegetation indices, the normalized difference water index (NDWI) is adopted for quantifying the deficit in precipitation. It is found that NDWI provides a better early warning system of drought compared to the vegetation indices. Combining the vegetation and water indices allows a more complete description of the evolution of drought for the Spring 2021 event. The potential for using the new framework for the early warning of future drought events is discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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23 pages, 10902 KiB  
Article
Impact of Lidar Data Assimilation on Simulating Afternoon Thunderstorms near Pingtung Airport, Taiwan: A Case Study
by Pei-Hua Tan, Wei-Kuo Soong, Shih-Jie Tsao, Wen-Jou Chen and I-Han Chen
Atmosphere 2022, 13(9), 1341; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13091341 - 23 Aug 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1622
Abstract
This study focused on improving the forecasting of the afternoon thunderstorm (AT) event on 5 August 2018 near Pingtung Airport in southern Taiwan through a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system using Doppler lidar-based wind profiler data from the Weather and Research Forecast model. [...] Read more.
This study focused on improving the forecasting of the afternoon thunderstorm (AT) event on 5 August 2018 near Pingtung Airport in southern Taiwan through a three-dimensional variational data assimilation system using Doppler lidar-based wind profiler data from the Weather and Research Forecast model. The assimilation of lidar wind profiler data had a positive impact on predicting the occurrence and development of ATs and wind fields associated with the local circulations of the sea–land breeze and the mountains. Evaluation of the model quantitative precipitation forecast by using root-mean-square error analysis, Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient analysis, Spearman rank correlation coefficient analysis, and threat and bias scores revealed that experiments using data assimilation performed much better than those not using data assimilation. Among the experiments using data assimilation, when the implementation time of assimilation of the wind profiler data in the model was closer to the occurrence time of the observed ATs, the forecast performance greatly improved. Overall, our assimilation strategy has crucial implications for the prediction of short-duration intense rainfall caused by ATs with small temporal and spatial scales of few hours and a few tens of kilometers. Our strategy can help guarantee the flight safety of aircraft. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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16 pages, 7686 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Scale-Aware Parameterization on the Next-Generation Global Prediction System in Taiwan for Front Predictions
by Chang-Hung Lin, Ming-Jen Yang, Ling-Feng Hsiao and Jen-Her Chen
Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1063; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071063 - 04 Jul 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2024
Abstract
In order to improve the precipitation forecast of the next-generation Global Prediction System with the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core in Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, this study modified the convective processes in the New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme based on the methodology of scale-aware parameterization [...] Read more.
In order to improve the precipitation forecast of the next-generation Global Prediction System with the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical Core in Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau, this study modified the convective processes in the New Simplified Arakawa-Schubert scheme based on the methodology of scale-aware parameterization developed in Kwon and Hong (2017) and investigated its impacts on a front event, which propagated across Taiwan and produced heavy rainfall in late May of 2020. Results show that the modified scale-aware parameterization has significantly improved the intensity and the spatial distribution of frontal precipitation forecasts due to the proper definition of convective updraft fraction. However, the synoptic-scale features perform a larger warm bias with the modified scale-aware parameterization. Therefore, further modification of the scale-aware capability of convective cloud water detrainment is proposed to reduce the heating from microphysical processes and result in a better overall performance for the medium-range weather forecasts. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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24 pages, 13536 KiB  
Article
An Ensemble-Based Analysis of a Liminal Extreme Rainfall Event near Taiwan
by Alexandra S. Cole, Michael M. Bell and Jennifer C. DeHart
Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1011; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071011 - 23 Jun 2022
Viewed by 1776
Abstract
This study analyzes an ensemble of numerical simulations of a heavy rainfall event east of Taiwan on 9 June 2020. Heavy rainfall was produced by quasi-stationary back-building mesoscale convective systems (MCS) associated with a mei-yu front. Global model forecast skill was poor in [...] Read more.
This study analyzes an ensemble of numerical simulations of a heavy rainfall event east of Taiwan on 9 June 2020. Heavy rainfall was produced by quasi-stationary back-building mesoscale convective systems (MCS) associated with a mei-yu front. Global model forecast skill was poor in location and intensity of rainfall. The mesoscale ensemble showed liminal conditions between heavy rainfall or little to no rainfall. The two most accurate and two least accurate ensemble members are selected for analysis via validation against radar-estimated rainfall observations. All members feature moist soundings with low levels of free convection (LFC) and sufficient instability for deep convection. We find that stronger gradients in 100-m θe and θv in the most accurate members associated with a near-surface frontal boundary focus the lifting mechanism for deep, moist convection and enhanced rainfall. As the simulations progress, stronger southerly winds in the least accurate members advect drier mid-level air into the region of interest and shift the near-surface boundary further north and west. Analysis of the verification ensemble mean analysis reveals a strong near-surface frontal boundary similarly positioned as in the most accurate members and dry air aloft more similar to that in the least accurate members, suggesting that the positioning of the frontal boundary is more critical to accurately reproducing rainfall patterns and intensity in this case. The analyses suggest that subtle details in the simulation of frontal boundaries and mesoscale flow structures can lead to bifurcations in producing extreme or almost no rainfall. Implications for improved probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall events will be discussed. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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23 pages, 5887 KiB  
Article
Typhoon Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts by the 2.5 km CReSS Model in Taiwan: Examples and Role of Topography
by Chung-Chieh Wang, Sahana Paul, Shin-Yi Huang, Yi-Wen Wang, Kazuhisa Tsuboki, Dong-In Lee and Ji-Sun Lee
Atmosphere 2022, 13(4), 623; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13040623 - 13 Apr 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1648
Abstract
In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) in Taiwan at the ranges of day 1 (0–24 h), day 2 (24–48 h), and day 3 (48–72 h) by a cloud-resolving model are examined using categorical statistics, targeted mainly for the most-rainy 24 [...] Read more.
In this study, 24 h quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) in Taiwan at the ranges of day 1 (0–24 h), day 2 (24–48 h), and day 3 (48–72 h) by a cloud-resolving model are examined using categorical statistics, targeted mainly for the most-rainy 24 h from 10 typhoon cases between 2010 and 2015, following two earlier studies that evaluated the overall performance for all the typhoons that hit Taiwan from 2010 to 2012 and through 2015. In the selected examples with a peak amount of 322 to 1110 mm, the QPFs by the model (with a grid size of 2.5 km) are shown to be of very high quality for two typhoons (Soulik and Soudelor), and fairly good quality for three cases (Fanapi, Megi, and Fung-Wong) up to day 3 and for four others (Saola, Kong-Rey, Nanmadol, and Tembin) within day 2, respectively. The results are more variable for the one remaining case of Matmo, also impressive on day 1 but degraded at longer ranges. Overall, the quality of the QPFs ranges from excellent to satisfactory for all the typhoons studied as the threat score can achieve 0.2 at thresholds fairly close to the observed peak amount in some typhoons, or at least about half of it in most others. Since the majority of the typhoons produced the greatest rainfall amounts over the mountains in Taiwan due to the topographic effect, in agreement with many previous studies, the QPF skills by the model, often extending into high thresholds, as demonstrated, suggest that heavy rainfall from typhoons in Taiwan is generally of high predictability if and when the model has an adequate resolution. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation in Taiwan and Neighboring East Asia Areas: Observation, Analysis, and Forecast)
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