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17 pages, 4857 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Responses of Runoff and Its Extremes to Climate Change in the Upper Catchment of the Heihe River Basin, China

by Zhanling Li, Wen Li, Zhanjie Li and Xiaoyu Lv

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 539; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030539 - 11 Mar 2023

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1222

Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff and its extremes is of great significance for water resource assessment and adaptation strategies, especially in water-scarce regions. This study aims to analyze the impact of future climate change on runoff and its extremes in [...] Read more.

Understanding the impact of climate change on runoff and its extremes is of great significance for water resource assessment and adaptation strategies, especially in water-scarce regions. This study aims to analyze the impact of future climate change on runoff and its extremes in the upper reaches of the Heihe River basin in northwest China. The projected runoff was derived using the Soil Water Assessment Tool with climate data from the CSIRO-MK-3-6-0 model under the scenario of RCP4.5, and a frequency analysis of runoff was performed by generalized extreme value distribution. The results indicate that, compared with the baseline period of 1961 to 2000, the minimum and maximum temperatures in the period 2031 to 2070 were predicted to increase by 2.5 °C on average. The precipitation in most months was also predicted to increase, with an average rise of 16.5%. The multi-year average runoff was projected to increase by 8%. The annual mean and extreme flows were also expected to rise under future climate change at different return periods, and the low flow was expected to increase the most. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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15 pages, 2811 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Identification and Characteristics of Historical Extreme High-Temperature Events over the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor

by Tao Li and Anming Bao

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 530; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030530 - 09 Mar 2023

Viewed by 1805

Abstract

Recently, there has been an increase in the occurrence of extreme high-temperature events across the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Regional spatiotemporal identification and evaluation of extreme high temperatures are essential for accurate forecasting of future climate changes. When such events generate a meteorological [...] Read more.

Recently, there has been an increase in the occurrence of extreme high-temperature events across the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Regional spatiotemporal identification and evaluation of extreme high temperatures are essential for accurate forecasting of future climate changes. When such events generate a meteorological hazard, it is important to understand their temporal and spatial features, return period, and identification criteria. Accurately identifying extreme events can help assess risk and predict their spatial–temporal variation. While past studies have focused on individual sites, extreme heat events generally manifest as spatially and temporally continuous regional events. In this study, we propose an objective identification technique based on gridded data and spatiotemporal continuity to reveal the spatiotemporal characteristics of intensity, frequency, and duration events of extreme heat events in the CPEC from May to October between 1961 and 2015. Furthermore, we estimate the return period of extreme heat in the study region using the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD). Our findings indicate that the historical extreme temperature events (intensity, frequency, and duration) in the CPEC have significantly increased. Areas with a high incidence of extreme heat events are concentrated in eastern Balochistan, northern Sindh, and southeastern Punjab. These findings suggest that disaster prevention and mitigation plans should be targeted towards areas with a high frequency of extreme heat events in the CPEC, allowing policy makers to better prepare for and respond to future events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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14 pages, 10983 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Comparison of Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies between Daytime and Nighttime Extreme High Temperature in North China

by Peng Chen, Gang Zeng, Xiaoye Yang and Vedaste Iyakaremye

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 495; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030495 - 03 Mar 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1442

Abstract

Many previous studies have shown that atmospheric circulation anomalies are usually the direct cause of extreme high temperatures (EHT). However, the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with daytime and nighttime EHTs in North China and their differences are less discussed. The present study divides [...] Read more.

Many previous studies have shown that atmospheric circulation anomalies are usually the direct cause of extreme high temperatures (EHT). However, the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with daytime and nighttime EHTs in North China and their differences are less discussed. The present study divides the summer EHTs in North China into independent daytime EHT (ID-EHT) and independent nighttime EHT (IN-EHT) according to the 90th percentile thresholds of the daily maximum and minimum temperature from CN05.1 and compares their atmospheric circulation anomalies. Composite results show that the sinking motion anomaly over North China and the southward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) cause less low cloud cover and water vapor, which is conducive to absorbing more solar radiation at the surface, and leads to the daytime high temperature of ID-EHT. With the disappearance of solar radiation at night, the heat is rapidly dissipated, and the high temperature cannot be maintained. A wave train from high latitudes can affect ID-EHT weather. On the contrary, the upward motion anomaly over North China cooperates with the northward displacement of the WPSH, leading to more clouds and water vapor over North China. As a result, the absorption of solar radiation in North China during the daytime is reduced, and EHT has difficulty in forming during the day. The higher humidity causes slower heat loss from daytime to nighttime, resulting in an IN-EHT. IN-EHT is more likely to be affected by a wave train such as the Silk Road pattern from the midlatitudes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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15 pages, 2547 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of GPM and TRMM and Their Capabilities for Capturing Solid and Light Precipitations in the Headwater Basin of the Heihe River

by Jie Liu, Bensheng Huang, Liangxiong Chen, Jingxue Yang and Xiaohong Chen

Atmosphere 2023, 14(3), 453; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14030453 - 24 Feb 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3047

Abstract

Obtaining accurate precipitation data in mountainous regions is important but challenging. In ungauged areas, remotely sensed precipitation products are useful supplements and alternatives to measured precipitation products. However, their ability to detect solid precipitation and light precipitation in mountain areas is still unclear. [...] Read more.

Obtaining accurate precipitation data in mountainous regions is important but challenging. In ungauged areas, remotely sensed precipitation products are useful supplements and alternatives to measured precipitation products. However, their ability to detect solid precipitation and light precipitation in mountain areas is still unclear. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate two satellite precipitation products, Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Tropical Precipitation Measuring Mission (TRMM), in the headwaters of an inland river on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau (the Heihe river basin), with a specific focus on their performance regarding light precipitation and solid precipitation. The achieved results reveal that both GPM and TRMM perform poorly over the Heihe river basin, with low Correlation Coefficient value and Critical Success Index value, particularly in winter. Based on the coupled Time-Variant Gain Model-Degree Day Factor Model (TVGM-DDF) initiated in this paper, the GPM is more applicable in terms of running hydrological models. With the aim of detecting solid precipitation, the GPM is more capable of detecting solid precipitation but still unsatisfactory at two stations. In the case of light precipitation, both products underestimate light precipitation. In general, the performance of the two products in the Heihe river basin is not satisfactory and should be enhanced in upcoming explorations. This study provides a strong foundation for choosing alternate precipitation data for related research in the mountain basin. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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20 pages, 11506 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Extreme Dry and Wet Events in the Pacific Region of Colombia estimated in the 21st Century Based on the Standardized Precipitation Index and CORDEX Climate Projections

by Deepak Chaulagain, Oscar Fernando Meneses Aroca, Noel Ngando Same, Abdulfatai Olatunji Yakub, Benyoh Emmanuel Kigha Nsafon, Dongjun Suh, Jin Mi Triolo and Jeung-Soo Huh

Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 260; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020260 - 28 Jan 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1627

Abstract

The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. [...] Read more.

The Pacific region of Colombia is known to be one of the most vulnerable to changes in precipitation patterns. A study was conducted using standardized precipitation index (SPI) analyses to understand the potential changes in precipitation in this region during the 21st century. The analyses were conducted using historical precipitation data from 1950 to 2005 and projected precipitation data from 2022 to 2100 under the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The results of the study showed that compared to historical data, SPI3 precipitation in this region is predicted to increase by 2040 under both climatic scenarios. However, in the 2041–2070 period, the region is expected to be wetter under RCP 8.5, although the difference between the two scenarios was not statistically significant. Similarly, SPI 6 precipitation is predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 and 2071–2100 periods under both scenarios. SPI 12 precipitation is also predicted to increase in the 2022–2040 period under RCP 4.5. In the 2041–2070 period, dryness is predicted to be more frequent under RCP 4.5, and wetness is predicted under RCP 8.5. The findings of this study can help in determining the most pertinent reference periods and computation time increments for evaluating the effects of future climate change on agricultural production and food security in the Pacific region of Colombia. It suggests that changes in precipitation patterns are likely to occur in the coming decades, which may significantly impact crop growth, water availability, and other aspects of agricultural production. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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13 pages, 1613 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Research Progress of Forest Fires Spread Trend Forecasting in Heilongjiang Province

by Xiaoxue Wang, Chengwei Wang, Guangna Zhao, Hairu Ding and Min Yu

Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 2110; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122110 - 16 Dec 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1156

Abstract

In order to further grasp the scientific method of forecasting the spreading trend of forest fires in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in Northeast China, the basic concepts of forest fires, a geographical overview of Heilongjiang Province, and an overview of forest fire [...] Read more.

In order to further grasp the scientific method of forecasting the spreading trend of forest fires in Heilongjiang Province, which is located in Northeast China, the basic concepts of forest fires, a geographical overview of Heilongjiang Province, and an overview of forest fire forecasting are mainly introduced. The calculation and computer simulation of various forest fire spread models are reviewed, and the selected model for forest fires spread in Heilongjiang Province is mainly summarized. The research shows that the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model has higher accuracy and is more suitable for the actual situation of Heilongjiang Province. However, few studies over the past three decades have updated the formula. Therefore, this empirical model is mainly analyzed in this paper. The nonlinear least squares method is used to re-fit the wind speed correction coefficient, which gets closer results to the actual values, and the Wang Zhengfei–Mao Xianmin model is rewritten and evaluated for a more precise formula. In addition, a brief overview of the commonly used Rothermel mathematical–physical model and the improved ellipse mathematical model is given, which provides a basis for the improvement of the forest fires spread model in Heilongjiang Province. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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18 pages, 4194 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Spatial Homogenization Adjustment and Application of Weather Station Networks in Xinjiang, China

by Liancheng Zhang, Jiayi Si, Guli Jiapaer, Taixi Zhang, Weiyi Mao and Siyan Dong

Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1840; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111840 - 04 Nov 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1009

Abstract

In this study, we define the

S_{0}

value (buffer zone area centred on a meteorological station) and two inhomogeneity measurement parameters, the station domain area and station network density, for 89 weather stations in the Xinjiang region, and we construct the weight [...] Read more.

In this study, we define the

S_{0}

value (buffer zone area centred on a meteorological station) and two inhomogeneity measurement parameters, the station domain area and station network density, for 89 weather stations in the Xinjiang region, and we construct the weight coefficient of the station network according to the station domain area. Applying the weight coefficient, we calculate the mean temperature, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature in January, April, July, October, and annually in the Xinjiang region from 1961 to 2021. The results show that the

S_{0}

value of 200,000 km² is suitable for determining the weight coefficient of the station network in the Xinjiang region. The two measurement parameters can quantitatively reflect the inhomogeneity of the distribution of 89 weather stations in the Xinjiang region. The spatial distribution density of the station network is positively proportional to the station network density and inversely proportional to the station domain area and weight coefficient of the stations. The equal-weighted average is lower than the spatially homogenized revised average, which underestimates the mean temperature in the Xinjiang region, and the spatially homogenized revised average better reflects the real temperature in the Xinjiang region. The annual and monthly mean temperatures, maximum and minimum temperatures calculated by the spatially homogenized revised average, and the equal-weighted average have the same upwards trend, and the mean temperature warming trend calculated by the two methods have differences, but the differences are not significant. The annual, January, April, July, and October minimum temperature warming trends according to the spatial homogenization revised average are greater than the maximum temperature warming trend and the mean temperature warming trend, and the annual minimum temperature warming trend is 3.3 times the annual maximum warming trend and two times the annual mean temperature. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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19 pages, 3433 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Comparison of Future Changes in Frequency of Climate Extremes between Coastal and Inland Locations of Bengal Delta Based on CMIP6 Climate Models

by Samiran Das, Mohammad Kamruzzaman, Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam, Dehua Zhu and Amit Kumar

Atmosphere 2022, 13(11), 1747; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111747 - 23 Oct 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1947

Abstract

Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in [...] Read more.

Climate change is perceived to be the primary reason for the amplification of extreme climatic phenomena. Estimation of changes in extreme values under climate change thus plays an important role in disaster risk assessment and management. However, the different changes in extremes in two distinct regions: inland and coast under climate change are yet to be investigated meticulously. This study is intended to assess the changes in frequency of rainfall and temperature extremes under the impact of climate change in two distinct locations: coast and inland of Bengal delta, a region highly vulnerable to climate change. The multi-model ensemble (projections from CMIP6 framework) technique with the application of frequency analysis was employed to appraise the impact in two future time horizons. Results suggest that the inland estimate of extreme rainfall by the end of this century is barely able to exceed the coastal estimate of extreme rainfall in present conditions. The rate of increase of warm extremes is almost similar; however, with the cold extreme, the increase rate is a little higher inland than on the coast. In both regions, a greater rise in climate extremes is expected in the far future than in the near future. Overall, the coastal area is expected to be more vulnerable to flooding while the inland to drought under climate change in the Bengal delta region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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17 pages, 5476 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projecting Changes in Rainfall Extremes for the Huai River Basin in the Context of 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming

by Yueyang Wang, Yanjun Wang, Yan Wang, Qin Ju, Junliang Jin and Zhenxin Bao

Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1708; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101708 - 18 Oct 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1366

Abstract

It is indisputable that global warming has triggered more frequent extreme weather and in turn led to severe flood disasters. To understand the trend of extreme rainfall under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, we investigated the historical variation and future trends in [...] Read more.

It is indisputable that global warming has triggered more frequent extreme weather and in turn led to severe flood disasters. To understand the trend of extreme rainfall under 1.5 °C and 2 °C warming, we investigated the historical variation and future trends in extreme rainfall for the Huai River basin, which has frequently been hit by floods, using recorded meteorological data and a projection of five General Circulation Models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6. We used the years 1995–2014 as the baseline period to study the temporal and spatial changes in extreme rainfall under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming scenarios. The results indicated that (1) temperatures in the Huai River basin have risen significantly from 1995 to 2014, but there are insignificant variation trends in annual precipitation (AP), intensive precipitation (R95P), maximum daily precipitation (Rx1d) and heavy rain days (Rr50) during the same time span. (2) From 2015 to 2100, both temperature and extreme rainfall indices show increase trends, with a higher rate of increase under a higher emission scenario. (3) Under the warming scenario of 1.5 °C, AP, R95P, Rx1d and Rr50 in the basin will likely increase by 4.6%, 5.7%, 6.2% and 13.4%, respectively, compared with that in the baseline period. Under the warming scenario of 2.0 °C, AP, R95P, Rx1d and Rr50 will probably increase by 7.3%, 7.4%, 10.9% and 19.0%, respectively. (4) Spatially, the changes in extreme rainfall indices under the warming scenarios of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C generally tend to increase from north to south. Higher intensity extreme rainfall will likely extend to the whole of the Huai River basin. It is therefore essential to study adaptive measures to cope with flooding in the Huai River basin induced by the increase in future rainfall extremes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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13 pages, 5152 KiB

Open AccessArticle

2022: An Unprecedentedly Rainy Early Summer in Northeast China

by Yitong Lin, Yihe Fang, Jie Wu, Zongjian Ke, Chunyu Zhao and Kexin Tan

Atmosphere 2022, 13(10), 1630; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101630 - 07 Oct 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1691

Abstract

In the early summer (June) of 2022, the spatial mean precipitation in northeast China (NEC) was 62% higher than normal and broke the historical record since 1951. Based on the precipitation data of 245 meteorological stations in NEC and the National Centers for [...] Read more.

In the early summer (June) of 2022, the spatial mean precipitation in northeast China (NEC) was 62% higher than normal and broke the historical record since 1951. Based on the precipitation data of 245 meteorological stations in NEC and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis, this paper analyzes the role of large-scale circulation and sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with anomalous precipitation over NEC in June using singular value decomposition (SVD), correlation analysis, regression analysis, and composite analysis methods, and further investigates the possible cause of the abnormal precipitation in June 2022. Results show that the northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) accompanying the blocking high in the Okhotsk Sea (BHOS) has been the primary mid-to-high latitude atmospheric circulation pattern affecting NEC precipitation in June since 2001. This circulation pattern is closely related to the tripole SST pattern over the North Atlantic (NAT) in March. In June 2022, the NAT SST anomaly in March stimulates eastward-propagating wave energy, resulting in the downstream anomalous circulation pattern in which the NCCV cooperates with the BHOS in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia. Under this background atmospheric circulation favorable for precipitation, the Kuroshio region SST anomaly in June led to a more northward and stronger anomalous anticyclone in the northwestern Pacific through local air–sea interaction, which provides more sufficient water vapor for NEC, resulting in unprecedented precipitation in June 2022. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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13 pages, 3867 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Ice-and-Snow Tourism in Harbin Met Its Waterloo: Analysis of the Causes of the Warm Winter with Reduced Snowfall in 2018/2019

by Dian Yuan, Er Lu, Wei Dai, Qingchen Chao, Hui Wang and Shuling Li

Atmosphere 2022, 13(7), 1091; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13071091 - 11 Jul 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1603

Abstract

Harbin, located in northeast China (NEC), has obvious monsoon climate characteristics due to the influence of its geographical environment. Under the control of the polar continental air mass, winter in Harbin is exceedingly cold and long, with the frequent invasion of the cold [...] Read more.

Harbin, located in northeast China (NEC), has obvious monsoon climate characteristics due to the influence of its geographical environment. Under the control of the polar continental air mass, winter in Harbin is exceedingly cold and long, with the frequent invasion of the cold and dry air from the north. Because of its intensely cold climate in winter, Harbin has created a local form of tourism with its own characteristics: the snow and ice landscape attracts a large number of tourists. Therefore, the anomalies of air temperature and precipitation in winter have an important impact on the livelihood of the local people and economy. In the winter of 2018/2019, the ice and snow tourism in Harbin was harshly affected by the extreme weather, and the direct cause is the anomalies of atmospheric circulation. There is a center of strong positive geopotential height anomalies over east China, which favors the movement of warm air northwards to the NEC, resulting in warmer-than-normal air temperature. Anomalous precipitation is largely controlled by the anomalies of local water vapor and air temperature. The aim of this study was to determine whether the warmer-than-normal temperature, which made the atmosphere more resistant to saturation, was the primary cause of the reduced snowfall. The relative importance of water vapor and air temperature anomalies to the anomalous precipitation was compared. The results suggest that the warmer-than-normal temperature affected all levels, but its impact on the near-surface level was greater. At the middle and upper levels (above 850 hPa), in addition to the warmer-than-normal temperature, the amount of water vapor was less than normal. These conditions both reduced the amount of snow; however, by comparison, the dryness of the air contributed more significantly. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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14 pages, 2725 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Interannual Variability of Summer Hotness in China: Synergistic Effect of Frequency and Intensity of High Temperature

by Wenyan Zhang, Er Lu, Juqing Tu, Qingchen Chao and Hui Wang

Atmosphere 2022, 13(5), 819; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13050819 - 17 May 2022

Viewed by 1484

Abstract

In the context of global warming, the impact of summer high temperature events is increasing. The accumulated summer high temperature is often used to reflect the overall hotness of summer. The internal variation of the accumulated temperature can be affected by both the [...] Read more.

In the context of global warming, the impact of summer high temperature events is increasing. The accumulated summer high temperature is often used to reflect the overall hotness of summer. The internal variation of the accumulated temperature can be affected by both the frequency and intensity. In this study, by using the daily data during summers of 1960–2018, we examine the relative importance of the two factors with a multiple linear regression method. It is demonstrated that that the dominant result of summer accumulated temperature is sensitive to the change of threshold. As the threshold increases, the importance of frequency gradually increases, while the importance of the intensity decreases. In addition, it is found that when the threshold changes, the sensitivity of the dominant results is different over regions. This can provide a basis for the selection of regional thresholds and further improve the representation of accumulated temperature for high summer temperatures. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Precipitation and Temperature Extremes: Monitoring, Dynamics, Prediction and Projection)

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