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Entropy
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Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies
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Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies

A special issue of Entropy (ISSN 1099-4300). This special issue belongs to the section "Complexity".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 August 2024 | Viewed by 4334

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Marcelo Oliveira

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Physics and Mathematics Department, Universidade Federal de Sao Joao del-Rei, Sete Lagoas 35702-031, Brazil
Interests: nonequilibrium phase transitions; complex systems; epidemics; complex networks; sociophysics
Dr. Marco Antonio Amaral

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Institute of Humanities Arts and Sciences, Universidade Federal do Sul da Bahia, Teixeira de Freitas 41820-500, Brazil
Interests: statistical physics; game theory; complex systems; sociophysics; complex networks

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Modeling and predicting epidemic spreading in human societies is a challenge connecting epidemiology and sociology. The complexity arises in many forms: individuals are known to interact in a complex network of connections; the flux and the nature of the information among the individuals affect their attitude towards prophylactic and/or non-farmaceutical measures, etc. In addition, complexity also emerges from the individuals' response to the environment, which can be based on their risk perception, optimistic bias, social condition or even political persuasion.

On the other hand, nowadays, several technological advances, such as contact-tracing apps and GPS, can help to identify and follow epidemics' spatial and temporal evolutions. This can lead to better parameter fitting and to optimize control strategies. 

Therefore, considering the recent advances in the fields of epidemic modeling and sociophysics, this Special Issue aims to collect new methods, models, and data-driven studies that contribute to a better understanding of the epidemic spreading in human societies.

Dr. Marcelo Oliveira
Dr. Marco Antonio Amaral
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Entropy is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • epidemic spreading
  • game theory
  • vaccination
  • complex networks
  • cooperative epidemics
  • data-driven modeling
  • rumour spreading

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 2536 KiB  
Article
Dynamic Analysis of an Epidemic Model Considering Personal Alert on a Complex Network
by Fengling Jia, Ziyu Gu and Lixin Yang
Entropy 2023, 25(10), 1437; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25101437 - 11 Oct 2023
Viewed by 727
Abstract
This paper proposes a SIQRS epidemic model with birth and death on a complex network, considering individual alertness. In particular, we investigate the influence of the individual behavior in the transmission of epidemics and derive the basic reproduction number depending on birth rate, [...] Read more.
This paper proposes a SIQRS epidemic model with birth and death on a complex network, considering individual alertness. In particular, we investigate the influence of the individual behavior in the transmission of epidemics and derive the basic reproduction number depending on birth rate, death rate, alertness rate, quarantine rate. In addition, the stabilities of the disease-free equilibrium point and endemic equilibrium point are analyzed via stability theory. It is found that the emergence of individual behavior can influence the process of transmission of epidemics. Our results show that individual alertness rate is negatively correlated with basic reproduction number, while the impact of individual alertness on infectious factor is positively correlated with basic reproduction number. When the basic reproduction number is less than one, the system is stable and the disease is eventually eradicated. Nevertheless, there is an endemic equilibrium point under the condition that the basic reproduction number is more than one. Finally, numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate theoretical results. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies)
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20 pages, 349 KiB  
Article
A Local Analysis of a Mathematical Pattern for Interactions between the Human Immune System and a Pathogenic Agent
by Florian Munteanu
Entropy 2023, 25(10), 1392; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25101392 - 28 Sep 2023
Viewed by 1113
Abstract
In the present study, we introduce a four-dimensional deterministic mathematical pattern in order to study the interactions between the human immune system and a virus. The model is based on a system with four first-order ordinary differential equations, and the main aim of [...] Read more.
In the present study, we introduce a four-dimensional deterministic mathematical pattern in order to study the interactions between the human immune system and a virus. The model is based on a system with four first-order ordinary differential equations, and the main aim of the paper is to perform a mathematical analysis of the local behavior of the associated dynamical system using the tools of the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. Moreover, two types of patterns with controls were introduced; consequently, some very interesting theoretical conclusions with medical relevance were obtained. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies)
17 pages, 1459 KiB  
Article
Stochastic Stabilization of Dual-Layer Rumor Propagation Model with Multiple Channels and Rumor-Detection Mechanism
by Xiaojing Zhong, Chaolong Luo, Xiaowu Dong, Dingyong Bai, Guiyun Liu, Ying Xie and Yuqing Peng
Entropy 2023, 25(8), 1192; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25081192 - 10 Aug 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 936
Abstract
With the development of information technology, individuals are able to receive rumor information through various channels and subsequently act based on their own perceptions. The significance of the disparity between media and individual cognition in the propagation of rumors cannot be underestimated. In [...] Read more.
With the development of information technology, individuals are able to receive rumor information through various channels and subsequently act based on their own perceptions. The significance of the disparity between media and individual cognition in the propagation of rumors cannot be underestimated. In this paper, we establish a dual-layer rumor propagation model considering the differences in individual cognition to study the propagation behavior of rumors in multiple channels. Firstly, we obtain the threshold for rumor disappearance or persistence by solving the equilibrium points and their stability. The threshold is related to the number of media outlets and the number of rumor debunkers. Moreover, we have innovatively designed a class of non-periodic intermittent noise stabilization methods to suppress rumor propagation. This method can effectively control rumor propagation based on a flexible control scheme, and we provide specific expressions for the control intensity. Finally, we have validated the accuracy of the theoretical proofs through experimental simulations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies)
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13 pages, 343 KiB  
Article
A New Analysis of Real-Time Fatality Rate in the Initial Stage of COVID-19
by Chuanbo Zhou, Jiaohong Fang and Mingzhi Mao
Entropy 2023, 25(7), 1028; https://doi.org/10.3390/e25071028 - 06 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 750
Abstract
Mortality is one of the most important epidemiological measures and a key indicator of the effectiveness of potential treatments or interventions. In this paper, a permutation test method of variance analysis is proposed to test the null hypothesis that the real-time fatality rates [...] Read more.
Mortality is one of the most important epidemiological measures and a key indicator of the effectiveness of potential treatments or interventions. In this paper, a permutation test method of variance analysis is proposed to test the null hypothesis that the real-time fatality rates of multiple groups were equal during the epidemic period. In light of large-scale simulation studies, the proposed test method can accurately identify the differences between different groups and display satisfactory performance. We apply the proposed method to the real dataset of the COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China (excluding Hubei), Hubei Province (excluding Wuhan), and Wuhan from 31 January 2020 to 30 March 2020. By comparing the differences in the disease severity for differential cities, we show that the severity of the early disease of COVID-19 may be related to the effectiveness of interventions and the improvement in medical resources. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Modeling and Control of Epidemic Spreading in Complex Societies)
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