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Transformation of Energy Markets: Description, Modeling of Functioning Mechanisms and Determining Development Trends

A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073). This special issue belongs to the section "C: Energy Economics and Policy".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (25 March 2022) | Viewed by 30537

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Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Faculty of Management and Economics, Gdańsk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdańsk, Poland
Interests: social and economic convergence; sustainable development; renewable and sustainable energy; spatial statistics; composite indicators; GIS

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

This Special Issue deals with the issue of the dynamically developing renewable energy sector and its increasingly stronger links with the electricity market and the primary fuels market. Currently, the renewable energy sector constitutes an increasingly larger area of the modern economy in terms of investment outlays for enterprises, the share of the sector's production in GDP, energy production, as well as in the field of research and development. Undoubtedly, the functioning of the RE sector has had a significant impact on the functioning of the global electricity market and primary fuels market. All this has made it necessary to look anew and in a completely different way at the changes taking place in these markets, especially in the field of electricity and primary fuels prices, as well as at their institutional foundations. The question arises as to what development trends will occur in the various energy markets and, therefore, how to create an energy policy and carry out the energy transformation, both at the national and international level.

Topics of interest for publication include:

  • Primary fuels, electricity and renewable energy markets;
  • Institutional determinants of development of energy markets;
  • Current state and development prospects for energy markets;
  • Energy transformation, prosumers, low-emission economy;
  • Modeling dependencies on energy markets;
  • Forecasting prices on energy markets.

Prof. Dr. Michal Bernard Pietrzak
Dr. Marta Kuc-Czarnecka
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Energies is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • sustainable development of the energy markets
  • renewable energy sector
  • primary fuels market
  • electricity market
  • energy regulation
  • energy forecasting

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Published Papers (13 papers)

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Editorial

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6 pages, 210 KiB  
Editorial
Transformation of Energy Markets: Description, Modeling of Functioning Mechanisms and Determining Development Trends
by Michał Bernard Pietrzak and Marta Kuc-Czarnecka
Energies 2022, 15(15), 5493; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155493 - 29 Jul 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1334
Abstract
One of the key contemporary economic and social issues today is the global energy transition [...] Full article

Research

Jump to: Editorial

23 pages, 1636 KiB  
Article
Forecasting Crude Oil Consumption in Poland Based on LSTM Recurrent Neural Network
by Anna Manowska and Anna Bluszcz
Energies 2022, 15(13), 4885; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15134885 - 3 Jul 2022
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 3548
Abstract
Primary fuels, i.e., crude oil, natural gas, and power coal, dominate the total global demand for primary energy. Among them, crude oil plays a particularly important role due to the universality of applications and the practical lack of substitutes in transport. Crude oil [...] Read more.
Primary fuels, i.e., crude oil, natural gas, and power coal, dominate the total global demand for primary energy. Among them, crude oil plays a particularly important role due to the universality of applications and the practical lack of substitutes in transport. Crude oil is also one of the main sources of primary energy in Poland and accounts for around 30% of the energy consumed. Poland covers only 3% of its needs from domestic deposits. The rest is imported from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Great Britain, Kazakhstan, and Norway. Due to such a high import of raw material, Poland must anticipate future demand. On the one hand, this article aims to analyze the current (2020) and future (2040) crude oil consumption on the Polish market. The study analyzes the geopolitical and economic foundations of the functioning of the energy raw-materials market, the crude oil supply, the structure of Poland’s energy mix, and assumptions about the energy policy until 2040. On the other hand, conclusions from the research were used to build a model of crude oil consumption for the internal market. It has been also shown that the consumption of crude oil on the Polish market is a nonlinear phenomenon with a small set of statistical data, which makes it difficult to build an accurate model. This paper proposes a new model based on artificial neural networks that includes long-term memory (LSTM). The accuracy of the constructed model was assessed using the MSE, Theil, and Janus coefficients. The results show that LSTM models can be used to forecast crude oil consumption, and they cope with the nonstationary and nonlinear time series. Many important contemporary problems posed in the field of energy economy are also discussed, and it is proposed to solve them with the use of modern machine-learning tools. Full article
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23 pages, 2274 KiB  
Article
Assessment of the Feasibility of Energy Transformation Processes in European Union Member States
by Michał Bernard Pietrzak, Magdalena Olczyk and Marta Ewa Kuc-Czarnecka
Energies 2022, 15(2), 661; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15020661 - 17 Jan 2022
Cited by 16 | Viewed by 2422
Abstract
The energy transition is now treated in most countries as a necessary condition for their long-term development. The process of energy transformation assumes the simultaneous implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals, which are a major challenge for modern economies and introduce significant restrictions [...] Read more.
The energy transition is now treated in most countries as a necessary condition for their long-term development. The process of energy transformation assumes the simultaneous implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals, which are a major challenge for modern economies and introduce significant restrictions in their functioning. Our study aims to group EU member states according to their ability to achieve energy transition over time. The novelty of our approach is the assessment of energy transformation in the European Union through two aspects. The first one, “smart and efficient energy systems”, assess the current, widely understood energy consumption in economy, and the second one, “macroeconomic heterogeneity”, refers to the economic potential of a country. In our analysis, we included indicators from the 7th, 8th, 10th, 11th, and 12th Sustainable Development Goals. Using taxonomic methods, we created clusters of countries according to the emissivity of their economies and the socio-economic potential for the energy transition. The analysis results revealed that countries vary more due to their emissivity than economic potential. Full article
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27 pages, 1904 KiB  
Article
Do COVID-19 Lock-Downs Affect Business Cycle? Analysis Using Energy Consumption Cycle Clock for Selected European Countries
by Tadeusz Kufel, Paweł Kufel and Marcin Błażejowski
Energies 2022, 15(1), 340; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010340 - 4 Jan 2022
Cited by 9 | Viewed by 2628
Abstract
On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 epidemic to be a global pandemic. This was a consequence of the rapid increase in the number of people with positive test results, the increase in deaths due to COVID-19, and the lack of [...] Read more.
On 11 March 2020, the WHO declared the COVID-19 epidemic to be a global pandemic. This was a consequence of the rapid increase in the number of people with positive test results, the increase in deaths due to COVID-19, and the lack of pharmaceutical drugs. Governments introduced national lockdowns, which have impacted both energy consumption and economies. The purpose of this paper is to answer the following question: do COVID-19 lockdowns affect the business cycle? We used the cycle clock approach to assess the magnitude of decrease in electricity consumption in the three waves of the epidemic, namely, April 2020, November 2021, and April 2021. Additionally, we checked the relation between energy consumption and GDP by means of spectral analysis. Results for selected 28 European countries confirm an impact of the introduced non-pharmaceutical interventions on both energy consumption and business cycle. The reduction of restrictions in subsequent pandemic waves increased electricity consumption, which suggests movement out of the economic recession. Full article
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16 pages, 274 KiB  
Article
Key Growth Factors and Limitations of Photovoltaic Companies in Poland and the Phenomenon of Technology Entrepreneurship under Conditions of Information Asymmetry
by Bartosz Wachnik and Zbigniew Chyba
Energies 2021, 14(24), 8239; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14248239 - 7 Dec 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1972
Abstract
Nowadays photovoltaic trade in Poland is growing rapidly due to contemporary challenges in sustainable energy. The first Polish photovoltaic firms were established in the second decade of XXI century. It was the answer of looking for new innovative energy sources including solar energy. [...] Read more.
Nowadays photovoltaic trade in Poland is growing rapidly due to contemporary challenges in sustainable energy. The first Polish photovoltaic firms were established in the second decade of XXI century. It was the answer of looking for new innovative energy sources including solar energy. It was necessary to change the structure of energy sources in Poland mainly based on carbon and oil & gas. The aim of this article was the identification and assessment the key opportunities and barriers to photovoltaic industry enterprises in Poland in the context of technology entrepreneurship under conditions of information asymmetry. The paper was prepared based on the results of qualitative research using the case study method. A comparative analysis was performed based on results of a study of four purposefully selected enterprises. All of them are SMEs. The research was done in 2021. The case study method allowed for comparing the analysed enterprises in pairs, which is discussed more extensively further on in the text. The research performed will lead to conclusions and recommendations for the photovoltaic sector enterprises in Poland which will allow them to act more effectively and efficiently in conditions of competing on the global market. This paper contains the characteristics of photovoltaic trade in Poland, its macro and micro environment, the opportunities and threats of this trade and key strengths and weaknesses of characterized photovoltaic enterprises in Poland. Finally, the conclusion and recommendations of discussed Polish photovoltaic trade firms in future are evaluated. Full article
24 pages, 4512 KiB  
Article
Determinants of Electrical and Thermal Energy Consumption in Hospitals According to Climate Zones in Poland
by Małgorzata Cygańska and Magdalena Kludacz-Alessandri
Energies 2021, 14(22), 7585; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227585 - 12 Nov 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2185
Abstract
Energy use in hospitals is higher than in other public buildings, so improving energy efficiency in healthcare buildings is a significant challenge in this sector of engineering. For this, it is necessary to know the various determinants of energy consumption. Until now, the [...] Read more.
Energy use in hospitals is higher than in other public buildings, so improving energy efficiency in healthcare buildings is a significant challenge in this sector of engineering. For this, it is necessary to know the various determinants of energy consumption. Until now, the main factor affecting energy consumption in healthcare facilities studied in the literature was hospital capacity. However, the commonly used variables connected with hospital size and the number of beds do not take into account the medical activities carried out in these buildings. Assuming that energy consumption in hospitals is multiple and shaped by many factors that overlap, not only on an individual level but also on a higher scale level, this study devises a more integrated approach to its determinants. This study aims to investigate the determinants of electrical energy costs (EEC) and thermal energy costs (TEC) in Polish hospitals with regard to factors related to their size, work intensity and climate zones. The analysis was carried out using financial and resource data from all Polish hospitals for the years 2010–2019. The study used a multivariate backward stepwise regression analysis. In order to use climate as a moderating variable, a sample of Polish hospitals from 16 Polish NUTS 2 was divided into four climate zones. This article provides new empirical evidence on the determinants of electricity consumption in Polish hospitals related to their size and medical activity, taking into account climate zone as a moderating variable. The results of the analysis show that both electricity and heat consumption in hospitals are positively related to the number of doctors, beds and the number of medical operations performed. As expected, larger hospitals seem to use more energy. Moreover, there is regional heterogeneity in energy consumption in hospitals related to the climatic zone in which they operate. The conducted analysis shows that Polish hospitals located in the warmest climatic zone are characterized by higher energy consumption than hospitals in the coldest zone. It especially regards EEC in surgery hospitals. The warmer the climate zones, the higher intensity in terms of the number of surgeries, the higher EEC. In terms of nonsurgical hospitals, the influence of climate zone on EEC was not observed. Knowing the factors influencing energy consumption in hospitals can facilitate the correct adoption of an energy-saving strategy in the health sector, which is a reasonable response to climate change and supports a healthy and sustainable future. Full article
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24 pages, 948 KiB  
Article
Factors of Renewable Energy Consumption in the European Countries—The Bayesian Averaging Classical Estimates Approach
by Atif Maqbool Khan, Jacek Kwiatkowski, Magdalena Osińska and Marcin Błażejowski
Energies 2021, 14(22), 7526; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227526 - 11 Nov 2021
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2034
Abstract
The paper aims to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for energy consumption from renewable sources (renewable energy consumption—REC) in European countries. Although in Europe, a high environmental awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of REC due [...] Read more.
The paper aims to identify the most likely factors that determine the demand for energy consumption from renewable sources (renewable energy consumption—REC) in European countries. Although in Europe, a high environmental awareness is omnipresent, countries differ in scope and share of REC due to historical energetic policies and dependencies, investments into renewable and traditional energetic sectors, R&D development, structural changes required by energetic policy change, and many other factors. The study refers to a set of macroeconomic, institutional, and social factors affecting energetic renewable policy and REC in selected European countries in two points of time: i.e., before and after the Paris Agreement. The Bayesian Average Classical Estimates (BACE) is applied to indicate the most likely factors affecting REC in 2015 and 2018. The comparison of the results reveals that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) level, nuclear and hydro energy consumption were the determinants significant in both analyzed years. Furthermore, it became clear that in 2015, the REC depended strongly on the energy consumption structure, while in 2018, the foreign direct investment and trade openness played their role in increasing renewable energy consumption. The direction of changes is gradual and positive. It complies with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Full article
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13 pages, 3582 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Energy Transition Scenarios in Poland
by Ewelina Kochanek
Energies 2021, 14(19), 6058; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196058 - 23 Sep 2021
Cited by 15 | Viewed by 2408
Abstract
Long-term energy scenarios form the basis of energy policy-making. In practice, the use of energy scenarios for the effective creation of energy policy differs in each country. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present two possible scenarios for the development of [...] Read more.
Long-term energy scenarios form the basis of energy policy-making. In practice, the use of energy scenarios for the effective creation of energy policy differs in each country. Therefore, the aim of this study is to present two possible scenarios for the development of the Polish energy sector, resulting from the current national policy and international commitments of Poland. The study examined the development of the energy mix in Poland in the 2040 perspective, in accordance with the strategic document Energy Policy of Poland (PEP 2040). The analysis took into account four diagnostic features: electricity production, electricity price, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in final energy consumption, and CO2 emission reduction. In addition, the analysis allowed for the presentation of the implications for the Polish economy and society after the application of the diversified variant with nuclear energy and the diversified variant with natural gas. Both scenarios assume too slow development of RES, and the ambivalent attitude of the Polish political elite towards zero-emission energy sources significantly hinders the development of some of its forms (e.g., onshore wind energy). Unfortunately, both the first and second variants entail a large increase in electricity prices, which will affect the entire economy and increase the level of energy poverty among Poles. The study provides strategic insights on the consequences of Poland’s choice of a specific energy transformation scenario. The results may serve as a starting point for understanding Poland’s restraint towards achieving zero emissions and contribute to the discussion of the direction of development of the Polish energy sector. Full article
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16 pages, 998 KiB  
Article
Nonlinear Causality between Crude Oil Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence and Forecasting
by Witold Orzeszko
Energies 2021, 14(19), 6043; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196043 - 23 Sep 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 1911
Abstract
The relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates have always been of interest to academics and policy analysts. There are theoretical transmission channels that justify such links; however, the empirical evidence is not clear. Most of the studies on causal relationships in [...] Read more.
The relationships between crude oil prices and exchange rates have always been of interest to academics and policy analysts. There are theoretical transmission channels that justify such links; however, the empirical evidence is not clear. Most of the studies on causal relationships in this area have been restricted to a linear framework, which can omit important properties of the investigated dependencies that could be exploited for forecasting purposes. Based on the nonlinear Granger causality tests, we found strong bidirectional causal relations between crude oil prices and two currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, and weaker between crude oil prices and JPY/USD. We showed that the significance of these relations has changed in recent years. We also made an attempt to find an effective strategy to forecast crude oil prices using the investigated exchange rates as regressors and vice versa. To this aim, we applied Support Vector Regression (SVR)—the machine learning method of time series modeling and forecasting. Full article
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30 pages, 2748 KiB  
Article
Between Poverty and Energy Satisfaction in Polish Households Run by People Aged 60 and Older
by Marlena Piekut
Energies 2021, 14(19), 6032; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14196032 - 22 Sep 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1719
Abstract
The household sector contributes significantly to a country’s energy consumption. Energy carrier expenses are the highest expenditures in Polish household budgets. Households run by individuals aged 60 and older are heavily burdened with energy expenditures. The scientific aim of the research is to [...] Read more.
The household sector contributes significantly to a country’s energy consumption. Energy carrier expenses are the highest expenditures in Polish household budgets. Households run by individuals aged 60 and older are heavily burdened with energy expenditures. The scientific aim of the research is to present and assess housing conditions, with particular emphasis on energy poverty in households run by individuals aged 60 and older. Multivariate statistical analyses were used to conduct the research objectives (cluster methods, variance methods, regression methods). This paper identifies a new index—one that has been applied to the situation in Poland. Households that consist of elderly people are strongly diversified in terms of housing conditions (including energy conditions). There are concerns that some households are not able to access energy services that are required to satisfy basic human needs, particularly individuals with low levels of education, living on social benefits, with low disposable incomes, or living in the countryside. Households represented by men aged 60 and older have better energy supply than households run by women. The older the individual representing the household, the greater the likelihood that his/her energy service needs are not met. Full article
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16 pages, 4742 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Spatial Effects in the Relationship between CO2 Emissions and Renewable Energy Consumption in the Context of Economic Growth
by Mateusz Jankiewicz and Elżbieta Szulc
Energies 2021, 14(18), 5829; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14185829 - 15 Sep 2021
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1385
Abstract
The paper presents a spatial approach to the analysis of the relationship between air pollution, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption. The economic growth of every country is based on the energy consumption that leads to an increase in national productivity. Using renewable [...] Read more.
The paper presents a spatial approach to the analysis of the relationship between air pollution, economic growth, and renewable energy consumption. The economic growth of every country is based on the energy consumption that leads to an increase in national productivity. Using renewable energy is very important for the environmental protection and security of the earth’s resources. Promoting environmentally friendly operations increases awareness of sustainable development, which is currently a major concern of state governments. In this study, we explored the influence of economic growth and the share of renewable energy out of total energy consumption on CO2 emissions. The study was based on the classical environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) and enriched with the spatial dependencies. In particular, we determined the spatial spillovers in the form of the indirect effects of changes in renewable energy consumption of a specific country on the CO2 emissions of neighboring countries. A neighborhood in this study was defined by ecological development similarity. The neighborhood matrix was constructed based on the values of the ecological footprint measure. We used the spatio-temporal Durbin model, with which the indirect effects were determined in relation to the spatially lagged renewable energy consumption. The results of our study also show the strength of the effects caused by imitating actions from the states with high levels of environmental protection. The study was conducted using data for 75 selected countries from the period of 2013–2019. Cumulative spatial and spatio-temporal effects allowed us to determine (1) the countries with the greatest impact on others and (2) the countries that follow the leading ones. Full article
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26 pages, 10507 KiB  
Article
Competition in a Wholesale Fuel Market—The Impact of the Structural Changes Caused by COVID-19
by Sylwester Bejger
Energies 2021, 14(14), 4211; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14144211 - 12 Jul 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2109
Abstract
Liquid fuels obtained in refining crude oil are one of the most important energies in economic activity. The domestic wholesale market for liquid fuels is of decisive importance for price formation in the national economy. The noncompetitive behavior of the market players at [...] Read more.
Liquid fuels obtained in refining crude oil are one of the most important energies in economic activity. The domestic wholesale market for liquid fuels is of decisive importance for price formation in the national economy. The noncompetitive behavior of the market players at this level of the distribution chain can significantly affect all downstream price levels and the producer–consumer surplus balance. Therefore, the competitiveness of this market should be screened and assessed regularly, especially when significant external factors change. This article attempts to evaluate the impact of structural changes on the global market of crude oil and energy products after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic on the competitiveness of the wholesale fuel market in Poland. Using asymmetry of the reaction of product prices to changes in the prices of inputs as a marker of noncompetitive behavior and the NARDL model as a test specification, the price paths of market players before and after the occurrence of structural changes in the inputs’ processes were examined. Significant changes in the competitive behavior of players were revealed after the occurrence of structural changes at the beginning of the pandemic period in the year 2020. These changes may indicate enhanced competition and mitigation of potential market power abuse. Full article
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23 pages, 5646 KiB  
Article
The Connections between COVID-19 and the Energy Commodities Prices: Evidence through the Dynamic Time Warping Method
by Krzysztof Dmytrów, Joanna Landmesser and Beata Bieszk-Stolorz
Energies 2021, 14(13), 4024; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14134024 - 4 Jul 2021
Cited by 29 | Viewed by 2979
Abstract
The main objective of the study is to assess the similarity between the time series of energy commodity prices and the time series of daily COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of the global economy. Although this impact is multifaceted, we [...] Read more.
The main objective of the study is to assess the similarity between the time series of energy commodity prices and the time series of daily COVID-19 cases. The COVID-19 pandemic affects all aspects of the global economy. Although this impact is multifaceted, we assess the connections between the number of COVID-19 cases and the energy commodities sector. We analyse these connections by using the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) method. On this basis, we calculate the similarity measure—the DTW distance between the time series—and use it to group the energy commodities according to their price change. Our analysis also includes finding the time shifts between daily COVID-19 cases and commodity prices in subperiods according to the chronology of the COVID-19 pandemic. Our findings are that commodities such as ULSD, heating oil, crude oil, and gasoline are weakly associated with COVID-19. On the other hand, natural gas, palm oil, CO2 allowances, and ethanol are strongly associated with the development of the pandemic. Full article
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