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20 pages, 3085 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Does Uncertainty Forecast Crude Oil Volatility before and during the COVID-19 Outbreak? Fresh Evidence Using Machine Learning Models

by Kais Tissaoui, Taha Zaghdoudi, Abdelaziz Hakimi, Ousama Ben-Salha and Lamia Ben Amor

Energies 2022, 15(15), 5744; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155744 - 08 Aug 2022

Cited by 6 | Viewed by 1616

Abstract

This paper uses two competing machine learning models, namely the Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) against the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMAX (p,d,q) model to identify their predictive performance of the crude oil volatility index before and during [...] Read more.

This paper uses two competing machine learning models, namely the Support Vector Regression (SVR) and the eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) against the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMAX (p,d,q) model to identify their predictive performance of the crude oil volatility index before and during COVID-19. In terms of accuracy, forecasting results reveal that the SVR model dominates the XGBoost and ARIMAX models in predicting the crude oil volatility index before COVID-19. However, the XGBoost model provides more accurate predictions of the crude oil volatility index than the SVR and ARIMAX models during the pandemic. The inverse cumulative distribution of residuals suggests that both ML models produce good results in terms of convergence. Findings also indicate that there is a fast convergence to the optimal solution when using the XGBoost model. When analyzing the feature importance, the Shapley Additive Explanation Method reveals that the SVR performs significantly better than the XGBoost in terms of feature importance. During the pandemic, the predictive power of the CBOE Volatility Index and Economic Policy Uncertainty index for forecasting the crude oil volatility index is improved compared to the pre-COVID-19 period. These findings imply that investor fear-induced uncertainty in the financial market and economic policy uncertainty are the most significant features and hence represent substantial sources of uncertainty in the oil market. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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26 pages, 418 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Understanding Cartel Viability: Implications for a Latin American Lithium Suppliers Agreement

by David R. Mares

Energies 2022, 15(15), 5569; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155569 - 31 Jul 2022

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1879

Abstract

The energy transition requires significant volumes of minerals of which the Global South holds large reserves. This context revives hopes and fears that producing countries in the Global South might hold sufficient market power to demand above market prices, technology transfers and even [...] Read more.

The energy transition requires significant volumes of minerals of which the Global South holds large reserves. This context revives hopes and fears that producing countries in the Global South might hold sufficient market power to demand above market prices, technology transfers and even migration of productive processes to their countries. Our research question is what determines the effectiveness of states’ collusion on natural resource exploitation and how does that affect the probability of Latin American collusion regarding lithium. The study utilizes Social Science methods for developing frameworks of analysis and comparative case studies. Following an overview of what is required for effective cartels, the study focuses on characteristics of the six primary lithium producers and potential producers in Latin America: Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Peru. Theory and empirical evidence indicate that Latin American lithium producers should be very cautious in assessing their bargaining power vis a vis the market. More focus should be put on how best to utilize market determined profits to support sustainable national development. The conclusion highlights limitations of Latin American countries’ capacities and suggests future lines of research regarding potential commodity cartels for resources essential to the energy transition. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

27 pages, 2416 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Politics of Market Change towards Sustainability: Revisiting Germany’s Policy Support Framework for Renewables

by Cristian Pons-Seres de Brauwer

Energies 2022, 15(11), 3898; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15113898 - 25 May 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2376

Abstract

Legislative efforts for renewables-based energy decarbonisation hinge upon the support and commitment from different stakeholders holding often conflicting positions regarding disruptive processes of socio-technical transformation. However, the evolving acceptance of market actors on the policy-driven promotion of renewables over time remains under-scrutinised. Simultaneously, [...] Read more.

Legislative efforts for renewables-based energy decarbonisation hinge upon the support and commitment from different stakeholders holding often conflicting positions regarding disruptive processes of socio-technical transformation. However, the evolving acceptance of market actors on the policy-driven promotion of renewables over time remains under-scrutinised. Simultaneously, despite growing attention to power and politics in sustainability transitions, limited efforts remain invested for elucidating the political-economic nature of the market-based selection environments they are operationalised through, highlighting the need for a more systematic comprehension of the “politics of selection”. To address these shortcomings, this paper provides a more refined understanding of the role of policy-driven markets and its participating agents in facilitating/hindering innovation diffusion and broader (system-wide) sustainability transitions. To do so, it showcases a longitudinal case study of the politics underlying Germany’s evolving feed-in policy support framework for orchestrating a market-mediated diffusion of renewables (1980s–2020). Based on policy analysis and semi-structured interviews, the study traces the changing acceptance and ensuing strategic (re)actions of market actors to the emergence and evolution of Germany’s market for electricity from renewable energy sources. Results show how different market participants effectively shape the selection environments they operate in by proactively contesting/deluding the design features of the support policies organising their economised relations (e.g., market entry conditions, exchange rules, remuneration levels, pricing schemes, etc.). Such efforts are undertaken through legal means and market framing strategies targeting the affordability of policy support costs, coupled with the strategic use of policy instrumentation as a vehicle to further expand/retain their market shares to the detriment of competing actors. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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20 pages, 5719 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reverse Causality between Oil Policy and Fiscal Policy? The Venezuelan Experience

by Osmel Manzano and Jose Luis Saboin

Energies 2021, 14(9), 2574; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14092574 - 30 Apr 2021

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1827

Abstract

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does [...] Read more.

This paper uses a model of intergenerational accounting to simulate the intergenerational distribution of oil wealth in Venezuela. Venezuelan oil production does not seem to follow an optimal extraction path. Nevertheless, this is true if we do not consider what the government does with the resources received from the oil sector. We explored the interaction of oil policy and fiscal policy using such intergenerational accounting model. We argue that the way in which tax revenues (both, those coming from oil and those who do not) are used today can affect voters preferences on how they will be used tomorrow. These interactions could explain certain outcomes. In particular, the model could explain why the sector was open for investment in 1991 and then “re-nationalized” in 2001. Results suggest that when fiscal policy could leave an important burden to future generations, voters seem to favor a more tax-oriented oil policy, leaving the oil in the subsoil. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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22 pages, 2842 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Tackling Complexity of the Just Transition in the EU: Evidence from Romania

by Roxana Voicu-Dorobanțu, Clara Volintiru, Maria-Floriana Popescu, Vlad Nerău and George Ștefan

Energies 2021, 14(5), 1509; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14051509 - 09 Mar 2021

Cited by 18 | Viewed by 3220

Abstract

The process of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting CO₂ emissions by 2030 by 55% compared to 1990 as per the EU Green Deal is highly complex. The energy mix must be changed to ensure long-term environmental sustainability, mainly by closing [...] Read more.

The process of reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and cutting CO₂ emissions by 2030 by 55% compared to 1990 as per the EU Green Deal is highly complex. The energy mix must be changed to ensure long-term environmental sustainability, mainly by closing down coal sites, while preserving the energy-intensive short-term economic growth, ensuring social equity, and opening opportunities for regions diminishing in population and potential. Romania is currently in the position of deciding the optimal way forward in this challenging societal shift while morphing to evidence-based policy-making and anticipatory governance, mainly in its two coal-mining regions. This article provides possible future scenarios for tackling this complex issue in Romania through a three-pronged, staggered, methodology: (1) clustering Romania with other similar countries from the point of view of the Just Transition efforts (i.e., the energy mix and the socio-economic parameters), (2) analyzing Romania’s potential evolution of the energy mix from the point of the thermal efficiency of two major power plants (CEH and CEO) and the systemic energy losses, and (3) providing insights on the socio-economic context (economic development and labor market transformations, including the component on the effects on vulnerable consumers) of the central coal regions in Romania. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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22 pages, 2118 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Climate Policy Imbalance in the Energy Sector: Time to Focus on the Value of CO₂ Utilization

by Pavel Tcvetkov

Energies 2021, 14(2), 411; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14020411 - 13 Jan 2021

Cited by 52 | Viewed by 6306

Abstract

Global warming is an existential threat to humanity and the rapid energy transition, which is required, will be the defining social, political and technical challenge of the 21st century. Practical experience and research results of recent years have showed that our actions to [...] Read more.

Global warming is an existential threat to humanity and the rapid energy transition, which is required, will be the defining social, political and technical challenge of the 21st century. Practical experience and research results of recent years have showed that our actions to cover the gap between real situation and aims of climate agreements are not enough and that improvements in climate policy are needed, primarily in the energy sector. It is becoming increasingly clear that hydrocarbon resources, which production volume is increasing annually, will remain a significant part of the global fuel balance in the foreseeable future. Taking this into account, the main problem of the current climate policy is a limited portfolio of technologies, focused on replacement of hydrocarbon resources with renewable energy, without proper attention to an alternative ways of decreasing carbon intensity, such as carbon sequestration options. This study shows the need to review the existing climate policy portfolios through reorientation to CO₂ utilization and disposal technologies and in terms of forming an appropriate appreciation for the role of hydrocarbon industries as the basis for the development of CO₂-based production chains. In this paper we argue that: (1) focusing climate investments on a limited portfolio of energy technologies may become a trap that keeps us from achieving global emissions goals; (2) accounting for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions losses, without taking into account the potential social effects of utilization, is a barrier to diversifying climate strategies; (3) with regard to hydrocarbon industries, a transition from destructive to creative measures aimed at implementing environmental projects is needed; (4) there are no cheap climate solutions, but the present cost of reducing CO₂ emissions exceeds any estimate of the social cost of carbon. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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19 pages, 2680 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Nexus Between Convergence of Conventional and Renewable Energy Consumption in the Present European Union States. Explorative Study on Parametric and Semi-Parametric Methods

by Gina Ionela Butnaru, Alina-Petronela Haller, Raluca Irina Clipa, Mirela Ștefănică and Mihaela Ifrim

Energies 2020, 13(20), 5272; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13205272 - 11 Oct 2020

Cited by 17 | Viewed by 1818

Abstract

Economic and social progress is directly and closely related to energy consumption. In the latest decades, there is a higher need to reduce energy consumption from conventional sources, replacing it with energy obtained from unconventional sources. The environmental concern is one of the [...] Read more.

Economic and social progress is directly and closely related to energy consumption. In the latest decades, there is a higher need to reduce energy consumption from conventional sources, replacing it with energy obtained from unconventional sources. The environmental concern is one of the objectives of the European economic policy, with a particular focus on renewable energy consumption and energy efficiency in order to lower the environmental impact. In this context, we analyzed energy consumption per capita and renewable energy consumption per capita in the EU with the help of parametric methods, using the β-convergence model, and semiparametric methods, using the σ-convergence model. In this research we proposed to study six analysis models of the period 1960–2015, based on the availability of data. We concluded that the EU states went through a convergence process in a slow pace of energy consumption per capita and renewable energy per capita, showing a convergence pattern. The results of the study show that there is a relationship between the convergence of conventional energy consumption and the convergence of renewable (unconventional) energy consumption. The study covers a long period of time in which EU member states had different economic and social systems, implicitly different degrees and rates of development. In addition, the interest in renewable energy is relatively recent in the whole world. There is a possibility that future research will provide more optimistic results, in terms of accelerating the convergence rate, as appropriate measures and technologies are applied to renewable energy production in all EU member states. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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15 pages, 1158 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Post-Subsidy Solar PV Business Models to Tackle Fuel Poverty in Multi-Occupancy Social Housing

by Joe Pitt and Colin Nolden

Energies 2020, 13(18), 4852; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184852 - 16 Sep 2020

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2927

Abstract

UK Feed-in Tariffs created a vibrant business ecosystem for the deployment of decentralised renewable energy technologies while constituting a regressive tax and increasing inequality. Business model innovation spurred by their withdrawal is providing valuable lessons for progressive policy design. Using the case study [...] Read more.

UK Feed-in Tariffs created a vibrant business ecosystem for the deployment of decentralised renewable energy technologies while constituting a regressive tax and increasing inequality. Business model innovation spurred by their withdrawal is providing valuable lessons for progressive policy design. Using the case study of solar PV deployment on multi-occupancy social housing, this paper reveals policy, business and organisational challenges that need to be overcome to address fuel poverty and reduce inequality. Suitable ‘export’ and ‘local’ business models were identified through a workshop and subsequently evaluated through qualitative thematic interview analysis. The ‘local’ model compares favourably in terms of production costs and benefits for fuel poor tenants but unfavourably in terms of transaction costs. Both models are considered equally susceptible to changes in policy. Their success hinges upon third party intermediaries, peer-to-peer learning and a supportive policy environment. This paper concludes with a policy recommendation to ensure that energy justice lies at the heart of the UK’s transition to net-zero carbon through the fair distribution of costs and benefits by including specific provisions to protect low-income groups. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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25 pages, 4581 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analyzing the Hydroelectricity Variability on Power Markets from a System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems Perspective: Seasonality and ENSO Phenomenon

by José D. Morcillo, Fabiola Angulo and Carlos J. Franco

Energies 2020, 13(9), 2381; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13092381 - 09 May 2020

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2465

Abstract

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems [...] Read more.

In this paper, the variations in hydropower generation are addressed considering the seasonality and ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) episodes. The dynamic hypothesis and the stock-flow structure of the Colombian electricity market were analyzed. Moreover, its dynamic behavior was analyzed by using Dynamic Systems tools aimed at providing deep insight into the system. The MATLAB/Simulink model was used to evaluate the Colombian electricity market. Since we combine System Dynamics and Dynamic Systems, this methodology provides a novel insight and a deeper analysis compared with System Dynamics models and can be easily implemented by policymakers to suggest improvements in regulation or market structures. We also provide a detailed description of the Colombian electricity market dynamics under a broad range of demand growth rate scenarios inspired by the bifurcation and control theory of Dynamic Systems. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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23 pages, 924 KiB

Open AccessArticle

International Trade Disputes over Renewable Energy—the Case of the Solar Photovoltaic Sector

by Agnieszka Hajdukiewicz and Bożena Pera

Energies 2020, 13(2), 500; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13020500 - 20 Jan 2020

Cited by 14 | Viewed by 5941

Abstract

The development of the renewable energy industry is a priority of economic policies in many countries, since it is viewed as one of the key growth sectors in the economy, playing also a very important role in mitigating climate change. At the international [...] Read more.

The development of the renewable energy industry is a priority of economic policies in many countries, since it is viewed as one of the key growth sectors in the economy, playing also a very important role in mitigating climate change. At the international level, renewable energy is an issue of international cooperation but also an area of high trade tensions between countries. The main goal of this paper is to examine the nature and sources of recent trade disputes in the solar photovoltaic sector, which is the most dynamically growing sector in the green energy industry. In particular, the paper explores the links between the contemporary trade disputes and modern protectionism and between protectionist policies and practices and the export competitiveness in the growing sector of the economy. To achieve the aim of the study we explore in detail the WTO trade disputes over photovoltaic (PV) products, which occurred in the years 2007–2018. The products covered by the analysis were solar modules and cells classified under the HS code 854140. In our research we also used measures of descriptive statistics, hierarchical cluster analysis and revealed comparative advantage indexes. Our key results demonstrate the existence of links between protectionist policy causing trade conflicts and the export competitiveness. The research has also allowed us to identify problems of future studies concerning the association between trade protectionism and global value chains in the solar energy sector. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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Review

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23 pages, 910 KiB

Open AccessReview

The Role of Political Economy in Energy Access: Public and Private Off-Grid Electrification in Tanzania

by Isa Ferrall, Georg Heinemann, Christian von Hirschhausen and Daniel M. Kammen

Energies 2021, 14(11), 3173; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14113173 - 28 May 2021

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3054

Abstract

Off-grid renewable energy sources are dramatically altering the energy landscape in countries with low energy access. While techno-economic perspectives are already widely discussed, the political economy is largely ignored, particularly regarding the institutions providing electricity. Two of many ways that the task of [...] Read more.

Off-grid renewable energy sources are dramatically altering the energy landscape in countries with low energy access. While techno-economic perspectives are already widely discussed, the political economy is largely ignored, particularly regarding the institutions providing electricity. Two of many ways that the task of electrification can be framed are: (1) as the duty of the government to provide a basic service to its people, or (2) as a goods that can be purchased from private players in a market system. Electrification in our country of focus, Tanzania, has developed a promising off-grid market as an increasing number of private players have recently become active there. While grid extension is still a priority for the government, solar home systems, which are estimated to make up more than half of all new connections by 2030, get surprisingly less attention in terms of coordination, political support, and policy frameworks. This is despite the fact that the population is highly dispersed, making grid extension less suitable and more expensive than off-grid, decentralized systems. After an extensive literature review, our method applies a theory-embedded framework of institutional economics to the use of solar home systems for electrification in Tanzania and examines the realizations of the electricity provided. The framework defines key political economy criteria as drivers for energy access and evaluates their respective relevance. We then apply this framework to evaluate 20 selected projects, which have promoted solar home systems in rural off-grid areas in Tanzania since 2000. As a unique contribution to the literature, this research highlights the underappreciated influence of different institutional arrangements on the political economy landscape and on the electricity provided for rural electrification in sub-Saharan Africa. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Economy of Energy Policies)

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