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Agent-Based Modeling of Socioeconomic Challenges of Energy Transition

A special issue of Energies (ISSN 1996-1073). This special issue belongs to the section "C: Energy Economics and Policy".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (16 November 2020) | Viewed by 8070

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
Department Integrated Energy Systems, University of Kassel, Mönchebergstraße 19, 34125 Kassel, Germany
Interests: agent-based modeling; social network analysis; co-simulation of decentralized energy systems; energy market design; communication protocols

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Guest Editor
Department Integrated Energy Systems, University of Kassel, Mönchebergstraße 19, 34125 Kassel, Germany
Interests: agent-based modeling; simulation and optimization approaches to energy systems; policy modelling and decision support; empirically grounded diffusion models; sustainable behavior in large populations

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Guest Editor
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX Delft, The Netherlands
Interests: agent-based modeling; energy systems analysis; energy and climate policy; serious gaming

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The energy transition as a socio-economic challenge

The transition of the energy system is ongoing, a process that appears to be more successful in some EU countries than in others. Stringent targets are close, both on the EU and national level. The heat sector needs to overcome its use of fossil fuels through energy efficiency measures and the installation of technologies such as heat pumps. The transportation sector needs to increase its share of electric vehicles in order to decrease emissions. Rising shares of renewable energy generation, meaning more volatile energy provision and a more and more decentralized structure, require new approaches to match consumption with generation. In addition, power grids need to be reinforced and expanded in ways that are accepted by the affected population.

The success of such approaches is strongly dependent not only on finding technical solutions and economic approaches for markets, but also on the diffusion of required technical innovations, the design and implementation of appropriate policies, integrating stakeholder perspectives, and the public acceptance of new ways of energy usage. Therefore, socioeconomic aspects of the energy transition are crucial for its success.

Agent-based modeling is a promising way to represent the heterogeneity of the involved actors and their interaction, to capture spatial aspects of energy transition and to investigate processes of individual decision making. Agent-based simulations enable the exploration of these fundamental processes and emergent system-level phenomena in an empirically grounded, explicit way. Finally, ABM is capable of offering science-based instruments and approaches to govern and steer the energy transition process successfully.

We ask for contributions of agent-based models of, and their applications to, these socioeconomic challenges, such as design of energy markets, demand side management, policies towards diffusion of technology, and practices. Furthermore, this Special Issue looks for studies about simulations combining the technical energy system with socioeconomic behavior, especially focusing on model coupling or co-simulations of ABM with approaches of other paradigms, such as optimization.

Dr. Sascha Holzhauer
Dr. Friedrich Krebs
Dr. Emile Chappin
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Energies is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Energy transition
  • Model-based decision support in energy policy
  • Diffusion of energy technology and practices
  • Modeling of energy markets
  • Agent-based modelling
  • Co-simulation
  • Model coupling
  • Sociotechnical aspects of energy systems

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

26 pages, 1440 KiB  
Article
Modelling End-User Behavior and Behavioral Change in Smart Grids. An Application of the Model of Frame Selection
by Sebastian Hoffmann, Fabian Adelt and Johannes Weyer
Energies 2020, 13(24), 6674; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13246674 - 17 Dec 2020
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2506
Abstract
This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for residential end-users, which is part of a larger, interdisciplinary co-simulation framework that helps to investigate the performance of future power distribution grids (i.e., smart grid scenarios). Different modes of governance (strong, soft and self-organization) as [...] Read more.
This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) for residential end-users, which is part of a larger, interdisciplinary co-simulation framework that helps to investigate the performance of future power distribution grids (i.e., smart grid scenarios). Different modes of governance (strong, soft and self-organization) as well as end-users’ heterogeneous behavior represent key influential factors. Feedback was implemented as a measure to foster grid-beneficial behavior, which encompasses a range of monetary and non-monetary incentives (e.g., via social comparison). The model of frame selection (MFS) serves as theoretical background for modelling end-users’ decision-making. Additionally, we conducted an online survey to ground the end-user sub-model on empirical data. Despite these empirical and theoretical foundations, the model presented should be viewed as a conceptual framework, which requires further data collection. Using an example scenario, representing a lowly populated residential area (167 households) with a high share of photovoltaic systems (30%), different modes of governance were compared with regard to their suitability for improving system stability (measured in cumulated load). Both soft and strong control were able to decrease overall fluctuations as well as the mean cumulated load (by approx. 10%, based on weekly observation). However, we argue that soft control could be sufficient and more societally desirable. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agent-Based Modeling of Socioeconomic Challenges of Energy Transition)
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26 pages, 637 KiB  
Article
Using Agent-Based Models to Generate Transformation Knowledge for the German Energiewende—Potentials and Challenges Derived from Four Case Studies
by Georg Holtz, Christian Schnülle, Malcolm Yadack, Jonas Friege, Thorben Jensen, Pablo Thier, Peter Viebahn and Émile J. L. Chappin
Energies 2020, 13(22), 6133; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13226133 - 23 Nov 2020
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2019
Abstract
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo [...] Read more.
The German Energiewende is a deliberate transformation of an established industrial economy towards a nearly CO2-free energy system accompanied by a phase out of nuclear energy. Its governance requires knowledge on how to steer the transition from the existing status quo to the target situation (transformation knowledge). The energy system is, however, a complex socio-technical system whose dynamics are influenced by behavioural and institutional aspects, which are badly represented by the dominant techno-economic scenario studies. In this paper, we therefore investigate and identify characteristics of model studies that make agent-based modelling supportive for the generation of transformation knowledge for the Energiewende. This is done by reflecting on the experiences gained from four different applications of agent-based models. In particular, we analyse whether the studies have improved our understanding of policies’ impacts on the energy system, whether the knowledge derived is useful for practitioners, how valid understanding derived by the studies is, and whether the insights can be used beyond the initial case-studies. We conclude that agent-based modelling has a high potential to generate transformation knowledge, but that the design of projects in which the models are developed and used is of major importance to reap this potential. Well-informed and goal-oriented stakeholder involvement and a strong collaboration between data collection and model development are crucial. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agent-Based Modeling of Socioeconomic Challenges of Energy Transition)
24 pages, 33036 KiB  
Article
From Niche to Market—An Agent-Based Modeling Approach for the Economic Uptake of Electro-Fuels (Power-to-Fuel) in the German Energy System
by Christian Schnuelle, Kasper Kisjes, Torben Stuehrmann, Pablo Thier, Igor Nikolic, Arnim von Gleich and Stefan Goessling-Reisemann
Energies 2020, 13(20), 5522; https://doi.org/10.3390/en13205522 - 21 Oct 2020
Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2976
Abstract
The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, [...] Read more.
The transition process towards renewable energy systems is facing challenges in both fluctuating electricity generation of photovoltaic and wind power as well as socio-economic disruptions. With regard to sector integration, solutions need to be developed, especially for the mobility and the industry sector, because their ad hoc electrification and decarbonization seem to be unfeasible. Power-to-fuel (P2F) technologies may contribute to bridge the gap, as renewable energy can be transferred into hydrogen and hydrocarbon-based synthetic fuels. However, the renewable fuels production is far from economically competitive with conventional fuels. With a newly developed agent-based model, potential developments in the German energy markets were simulated for a horizon of 20 years from 2016 to 2035. The model was constructed through a participatory modeling process with relevant actors and stakeholders in the field. Model findings suggest that adjusted regulatory framework conditions (e.g., exemptions from electricity surtaxes, accurate prices for CO2-certificates, strong start-up subsidies, and drastic emission reduction quotas) are key factors for economically feasible P2F installations and will contribute to its large-scale integration into the German energy system. While plant capacities do not exceed 0.042 GW in a business-as-usual scenarios, the above-mentioned adjustments lead to plant capacities of at least 3.25 GW in 2035 with concurrent reduction in product prices. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Agent-Based Modeling of Socioeconomic Challenges of Energy Transition)
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