Climate

Research

Jump to: Review

21 pages, 11232 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Multi-Hazard Extreme Scenario Quantification Using Intensity, Duration, and Return Period Characteristics

by Athanasios Sfetsos, Nadia Politi and Diamando Vlachogiannis

Climate 2023, 11(12), 242; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11120242 - 12 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1869

Abstract

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including [...] Read more.

Many modern frameworks for community resilience and emergency management in the face of extreme hydrometeorological and climate events rely on scenario building. These scenarios typically cover multiple hazards and assess the likelihood of their occurrence. They are quantified by their main characteristics, including likelihood of occurrence, intensity, duration, and spatial extent. However, most studies in the literature focus only on the first two characteristics, neglecting to incorporate the internal hazard dynamics and their persistence over time. In this study, we propose a multidimensional approach to construct extreme event scenarios for multiple hazards, such as heat waves, cold spells, extreme precipitation and snowfall, and wind speed. We consider the intensity, duration, and return period (IDRP) triptych for a specific location. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by developing pertinent scenarios for eight locations in Greece with diverse geographical characteristics and dominant extreme hazards. We also address how climate change impacts the scenario characteristics. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 2432 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Managing Extreme Rainfall and Flooding Events: A Case Study of the 20 July 2021 Zhengzhou Flood in China

by Xiaofan Zhao, Huimin Li, Qin Cai, Ye Pan and Ye Qi

Climate 2023, 11(11), 228; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11110228 - 12 Nov 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2479

Abstract

On 20 July 2021, an extreme rainstorm battered Zhengzhou in China’s Henan Province, killing 302 people, including 14 individuals who drowned in a subway tunnel and 6 who drowned in a road tunnel. As the global climate warms, extreme weather events similar to [...] Read more.

On 20 July 2021, an extreme rainstorm battered Zhengzhou in China’s Henan Province, killing 302 people, including 14 individuals who drowned in a subway tunnel and 6 who drowned in a road tunnel. As the global climate warms, extreme weather events similar to the Zhengzhou flood will become more frequent, with increasingly catastrophic consequences for society. Taking a case study-based approach by focusing on the record-breaking Zhengzhou flood, this paper examines the governance capacity of inland cities in North China for managing extreme precipitation and flooding events from the perspective of the flood risk management process. Based on in-depth case analysis, our paper hypothesizes that inland cities in North China still have low risk perceptions of extreme weather events, which was manifested in insufficient pre-disaster preparation and prevention, poor risk communication, and slow emergency response. Accordingly, it is recommended that inland cities update their risk perceptions of extreme rainfall and flooding events, which are no longer low-probability, high-impact “black swans”, but turning into high-probability, high-impact “gray rhinos.” In particular, cities must make sufficient preparation for extreme weather events by revising contingency plans and strengthening their implementation, improving risk communication of meteorological warnings, and synchronizing emergency response with meteorological warnings. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

21 pages, 5594 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Analysis of the Composite Risk Grade for Multi Extreme Climate Events in China in Recent 60 Years

by Cunjie Zhang, Chan Xiao, Shuai Li, Yuyu Ren, Siqi Zhang, Xiuhua Cai and Zhujie Sangbu

Climate 2023, 11(9), 191; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090191 - 14 Sep 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1271

Abstract

Much attention has been given to the change rule of a single extreme event, and there are few reports on comprehensive characteristics of multiple extreme events in a certain region. Based on the analyzes of annual frequency of extreme high temperature, extreme low [...] Read more.

Much attention has been given to the change rule of a single extreme event, and there are few reports on comprehensive characteristics of multiple extreme events in a certain region. Based on the analyzes of annual frequency of extreme high temperature, extreme low temperature, extreme drought, extreme precipitation, and extreme typhoon events in China from 1961 to 2020, a multi extreme events composite risk grade index (MXCI) was constructed and applied to the comprehensive characteristics analyzes of multiple extreme events in China. The results show that the high value areas of MXCI were mainly located in southeast China and southwest China. Over the past 60 years, the MXCI has shown a decreasing trend in western China and most of southeastern China, and an increasing trend in the middle zone from southwest China to northeast China. Through comparative analysis, MXCI can objectively reflect the comprehensive characteristics of multiple extreme climate events in a region, which is helpful to understand regional extreme climate characteristics and effectively cope with extreme climate risks. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

12 pages, 1422 KiB

Open AccessCommunication

Sensitivity Analysis of Heat Stress Indices

by Ahmed Rachid and Aiman Mazhar Qureshi

Climate 2023, 11(9), 181; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11090181 - 30 Aug 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1795

Abstract

More than 40 heat indices are being used across the world to quantify outdoor thermal comfort. The selection of an Outdoor Heat Stress Index (OHSI) depends on several parameters, including clothing, age, awareness, local environment, food consumption, human activities, and resources. This study [...] Read more.

More than 40 heat indices are being used across the world to quantify outdoor thermal comfort. The selection of an Outdoor Heat Stress Index (OHSI) depends on several parameters, including clothing, age, awareness, local environment, food consumption, human activities, and resources. This study investigates various indicators of heat stress, including (i) OHSIs officially used to quantify heat stress worldwide, (ii) the estimation methods of these indices, and (iii) the sensitivity analysis of indices, namely, Corrected Effective Temperature (CET), Heat Index (HI), Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Discomfort Index (DI), Summer Simmer Index (SSI), and Predicted Mean Vote (PMV). The results indicate the degree of sensitivity of indices, with the HI being the most sensitive for estimating heat stress. Additionally, the WBGT, HI, and CET are recommended indices that can be directly measured using sensors instead of relying on calculated indices that are based on estimation techniques and some ideal physical assumptions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 5202 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Extreme Recreational Conditions in the Black Sea Resorts Associated with the North Atlantic Climate

by Anna A. Stefanovich, Elena N. Voskresenskaya and Veronika N. Maslova

Climate 2023, 11(7), 148; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070148 - 14 Jul 2023

Viewed by 1161

Abstract

The tourist and recreational conditions of the Mediterranean-Black Sea resorts are closely related to hydrometeorological anomalies, which in turn are largely associated with the North Atlantic climate. The aim of this paper was to study the change and variability of the bioclimatic indices [...] Read more.

The tourist and recreational conditions of the Mediterranean-Black Sea resorts are closely related to hydrometeorological anomalies, which in turn are largely associated with the North Atlantic climate. The aim of this paper was to study the change and variability of the bioclimatic indices and their extremes at the Black Sea resorts (on the example of Yalta, Southern coast of Crimea, and Sochi, Caucasian coast) associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and East Atlantic Oscillation (EAO). Using daily NCEP/NCAR (2.5° × 2.5°) and E-OBS (0.25° × 0.25°) reanalysis datasets, bioclimatic indices (wind cooling index, weight oxygen content, and equivalent-effective temperature) were calculated for January and July in 1950–2013/2018. The extreme index values were obtained using the 5th and 95th percentile relative thresholds. The results suggest that bioclimatic indices in Yalta are more sensitive to the global warming effect than those in Sochi, likely due to the geographical features. As a result, Yalta is becoming a year-round resort. It was shown for both resorts that negative EAO phase is significantly manifested in the increase of windy days in July versus the increase of windless days in the positive phase, and in the more frequent fresh and cold days in July (versus the opposite conditions in the positive phase only in Yalta). The NAO manifestations are mostly less pronounced than those of the EAO and are more significant in Sochi (mostly in January and in the negative NAO phase). Thus, it was shown that extreme values of bioclimatic indices occur at both resorts on the interannual scale depending on the NAO and EAO phases, but the conditions remain in the comfort range for now, even with the significant linear trends. The study can be expanded to other Mediterranean–Black Sea resorts for their sustainable development in a changing climate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 2482 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Perceptions of Climate Change Risk on Agriculture Livelihood in Savanna Region, Northern Togo

by Abravi Essenam Kissi, Georges Abbevi Abbey and Grace B. Villamor

Climate 2023, 11(4), 86; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11040086 - 11 Apr 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2512

Abstract

The agriculture sector in the Savanna region of Togo is especially vulnerable to weather fluctuations, which have an impact on crop production levels. However, farmers’ decisions to implement adaptation strategies are directly related to their perceptions of climate change risk. The current study [...] Read more.

The agriculture sector in the Savanna region of Togo is especially vulnerable to weather fluctuations, which have an impact on crop production levels. However, farmers’ decisions to implement adaptation strategies are directly related to their perceptions of climate change risk. The current study employed a participatory workshop and household survey of 425 farmers to examine the drivers of specific climate change risks of interest (risk of loss of livelihood for farmers) and measure farmers’ level of climate change risk perception. A climate change risk perception score (CCRPS), descriptive statistics, principal component analysis, and K-means cluster analysis were used to analyze the data collected. The findings revealed that the most important changes in climate conditions affecting agricultural production in the study area were mainly the increased duration of dry spells, erratic rainfall, and an increase in extreme rainfall events. These climatic variations cause more floods and droughts, which, when coupled with socio-ecological vulnerability drivers, increase the impact of these events on agricultural livelihood, expose more farmers and their farmland, and contribute to the risk of farmers’ livelihood loss in the study area. Based on farmers’ appraisals of the occurrence of hazards, their exposure, and their vulnerability, farmers’ perceptions of climate risk have been classified into three categories: high, moderate, and low. This finding sheds some light on farmers’ climate change risk perception, which may influence their adaptation decision. These findings can be used to increase the uptake of adaptation strategies and thus the resilience of Savanna region agriculture to climate change. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

24 pages, 13859 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modelling Drought Risk Using Bivariate Spatial Extremes: Application to the Limpopo Lowveld Region of South Africa

by Murendeni Maurel Nemukula, Caston Sigauke, Hector Chikoore and Alphonce Bere

Climate 2023, 11(2), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11020046 - 13 Feb 2023

Viewed by 1911

Abstract

Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and floods are projected to become more frequent and intense in several regions. There is compelling evidence indicating that changes in climate and its extremes over time influence the living conditions of society and [...] Read more.

Weather and climate extremes such as heat waves, droughts and floods are projected to become more frequent and intense in several regions. There is compelling evidence indicating that changes in climate and its extremes over time influence the living conditions of society and the surrounding environment across the globe. This study applies max-stable models to capture the spatio–temporal extremes with dependence. The objective was to analyse the risk of drought caused by extremely high temperatures and deficient rainfall. Hopkin’s statistic was used to assess the clustering tendency before using the agglomerative method of hierarchical clustering to cluster the study area into

n = 3

temperature clusters and

n = 3

precipitation clusters. For the precipitation and temperature data, the values of Hopkin’s statistic were 0.7317 and 0.8446, respectively, which shows that both are significantly clusterable. Various max-stable process models were then fitted to each cluster of each variable, and the Schlather model with several covariance functions was found to be a good fit on both datasets compared to the Smith model with the Gaussian covariance function. The modelling approach presented in this paper could be useful to hydrologists, meteorologists and climatologists, including decision-makers in the agricultural sector, in enhancing their understanding of the behaviour of drought caused by extremely high temperatures and low rainfall. The modelling of these compound extremes could also assist in assessing the impact of climate change. It can be seen from this study that the size, including the topography of the location (cluster/region), provides important information about the strength of the extremal dependence. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

13 pages, 2913 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Amplification of Extreme Hot Temperatures over Recent Decades

by Nir Y. Krakauer

Climate 2023, 11(2), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11020042 - 10 Feb 2023

Viewed by 2099

Abstract

While global warming is mostly conceptualized in terms of increases in mean temperature, changes in the most extreme conditions encountered often have disproportionate impacts. Here, a measure of warming amplification is defined as the change in the highest yearly temperature (denoted TXx), representing [...] Read more.

While global warming is mostly conceptualized in terms of increases in mean temperature, changes in the most extreme conditions encountered often have disproportionate impacts. Here, a measure of warming amplification is defined as the change in the highest yearly temperature (denoted TXx), representing extreme heat, minus that in the 80th percentile daily high temperature (

T_{\max}^{80}

), which represents typical summer conditions. Based on the ERA5 reanalysis, over 1959–2021, warming of TXx averaged 1.56 K over land areas, whereas warming of

T_{\max}^{80}

averaged 1.60 K. However, the population-weighted mean warming of TXx significantly exceeded warming of

T_{\max}^{80}

(implying positive amplification) over Africa, South America, and Oceania. Where available, station temperature observations generally showed similar trends to ERA5. These findings provide a new target for climate model calibration and insight for evaluating the changing risk of temperature extremes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

26 pages, 6594 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evolution and Trends of Meteorological Drought and Wet Events over the Republic of Djibouti from 1961 to 2021

by Omar Assowe Dabar, Abdi-Basid Ibrahim Adan, Moussa Mahdi Ahmed, Mohamed Osman Awaleh, Moussa Mohamed Waberi, Pierre Camberlin, Benjamin Pohl and Jalludin Mohamed

Climate 2022, 10(10), 148; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10100148 - 12 Oct 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3111

Abstract

Drought is a meteorological and hydrological phenomenon affecting the environment, agriculture, and socioeconomic conditions, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. A better understanding of drought characteristics over short and long timescales is therefore crucial for drought mitigation and long-term strategies. For the first [...] Read more.

Drought is a meteorological and hydrological phenomenon affecting the environment, agriculture, and socioeconomic conditions, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. A better understanding of drought characteristics over short and long timescales is therefore crucial for drought mitigation and long-term strategies. For the first time, this study evaluates the occurrence, duration, and intensity of drought over the Republic of Djibouti by using a long-term (1961–2021) rainfall time series at Djibouti Airport, completed by the CHIRPS precipitation product and local records from 35 weather stations. The drought is examined based on the Standardized Precipitation–Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month timescales, so as to document short-, medium-, and long-duration events. The SPEI and SPI showed a significant drying tendency for the indices computed over 12 and 24 months at Djibouti Airport. The eastern coastal region of the Republic of Djibouti was the most affected by the increased drought incidence in recent decades, with more than 80% of the extremely and severely dry events occurring within the period 2007–2017. In contrast, the western regions recorded a positive trend in their SPIs during the period 1981–2021, due to the dominance of the June–September (JJAS) rains, which tend to increase. However, in the last few decades, the whole country experienced the droughts of 2006/2007 and 2010/2011, which were the longest and most intense on record. Large-scale climate variability in the Indo-Pacific region partially affects drought in Djibouti. The SPI and SPEI are significantly positively correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole during October–December (OND), while for JJAS the SPI and SPEI are negatively correlated with Nino3.4. The wet event in 2019 (OND) causing devastating floods in Djibouti city was linked with a positive IOD anomaly. This study provides essential information on the characteristics of drought in the Republic of Djibouti for decision-makers to better plan appropriate strategies for early warning systems to adapt and mitigate recurrent droughts that put the country’s agro-pastoral populations in a precarious situation. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Review

Jump to: Research

23 pages, 1394 KiB

Open AccessReview

The Drought Regime in Southern Africa: A Systematic Review

by Fernando Maliti Chivangulula, Malik Amraoui and Mário Gonzalez Pereira

Climate 2023, 11(7), 147; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11070147 - 13 Jul 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3395

Abstract

Drought is one natural disaster with the greatest impact worldwide. Southern Africa (SA) is susceptible and vulnerable to drought due to its type of climate. In the last four decades, droughts have occurred more frequently, with increasing intensity and impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, [...] Read more.

Drought is one natural disaster with the greatest impact worldwide. Southern Africa (SA) is susceptible and vulnerable to drought due to its type of climate. In the last four decades, droughts have occurred more frequently, with increasing intensity and impacts on ecosystems, agriculture, and health. The work consists of a systematic literature review on the drought regime’s characteristics in the SA under current and future climatic conditions, conducted on the Web of Science and Scopus platforms, using the PRISMA2020 methodology, with usual and appropriate inclusion and exclusion criteria to minimize/eliminate the risk of bias, which lead to 53 documents published after the year 1987. The number of publications on the drought regime in SA is still very small. The country with the most drought situations studied is South Africa, and the countries with fewer studies are Angola and Namibia. The analysis revealed that the main driver of drought in SA is the ocean–atmosphere interactions, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The documents used drought indices, evaluating drought descriptors for some regions, but it was not possible to identify one publication that reports the complete study of the drought regime, including the spatial and temporal distribution of all drought descriptors in SA. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

16 pages, 640 KiB

Open AccessReview

Climate Change Adaptation and the Agriculture–Food System in Myanmar

by Aung Tun Oo, Duncan Boughton and Nilar Aung

Climate 2023, 11(6), 124; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060124 - 06 Jun 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3913

Abstract

The agricultural sector provides employment and income to the majority of Myanmar’s population. The sector, however, is extremely susceptible to severe weather, rising temperatures, and changes in precipitation. A lack of knowledge about farming communities’ climate change vulnerabilities, as well as the insufficient [...] Read more.

The agricultural sector provides employment and income to the majority of Myanmar’s population. The sector, however, is extremely susceptible to severe weather, rising temperatures, and changes in precipitation. A lack of knowledge about farming communities’ climate change vulnerabilities, as well as the insufficient integration of policies and programs, is a constraint to climate change adaptation in agriculture sectors. This paper analyzes the drivers of the agricultural sector’s vulnerability to climate change and highlights the key production systems that are most at risk in Myanmar. The paper examines historical climate information and the anticipated effects of climate change. We include an in-depth literature review and summaries of climate change adaptation efforts in agriculture sectors, along with recommendations for targeted, locally appropriate actions to strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector. Farm households use a combination of scientific and indigenous adaptation strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. Additionally, the study reviews Myanmar’s institutional framework for climate action and government priorities for adaptation measures, emphasizes the urgent need for climate action in agriculture sectors, and calls for more research and development efforts on the effects of climate change on rural livelihoods and agriculture. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II)

► Show Figures

Figure 1

Journal Menu

Journal Browser

Climate and Weather Extremes: Volume II

Share This Special Issue

Special Issue Editor

Special Issue Information

Keywords

Related Special Issue

Published Papers (11 papers)

Research

Review

Further Information

Guidelines

MDPI Initiatives

Follow MDPI