River Water Temperature and Ice Phenomena Modeling and Forecasting

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (17 September 2021) | Viewed by 3216

Special Issue Editors


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Department of Hydrology and Water Management, Adam Mickiewicz University, 61-712 Poznan, Poland
Interests: hydroclimatology; climate change; hydrological processes modeling; river thermal-ice regime; watershed hydrology; water resource and flood risk management
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Guest Editor
Faculty of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Gdańsk University of Technology, 80-233 Gdańsk, Poland
Interests: mathematical modeling; river ice; ice load; hydrological modeling; river hydraulics
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College of Hydraulic Science and Engineering, Yangzhou University, Yangzhou 225000, China
Interests: modelling of contaminant transport and transformation in aquatic systems; sediment transport in river and reservoir systems; riverine nutrient fluxes modeling in Earth System Models (ESMs); impact of climate change on aquatic systems
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

River water temperature and ice phenomena are good indicators of climate variability and change, as well as of the control of processes occurring in river ecosystems. Studies conducted in many parts of the world confirm the multidirectional trends of changes in the air and river water temperature. The climatic factor is being recognized as being of decisive importance for the changes in the water thermal characteristics and icing processes of the majority of rivers. Changes in water temperature are mainly in terms of surface heat exchange with the atmosphere, as well as the turbulent mixing of water of different temperatures. It is forecasted that river water temperature will continue to rise along with the increases in air temperature, ultimately leading to a change in the processes occurring in rivers that are of decisive significance for their run-off, icing, and thermal regimes.

Studies on the relationships between water temperature, ice phenomena, air temperature, and large-scale atmospheric circulation are being carried out in order to evaluate the long-term trends of their changes and the possibility of their predictions. For this purpose, linear and non-linear regression models; more complex parametric and nonparametric methods; process-based deterministic models; and, during the past two decades or so, artificial neural networks and other machine learning methods, are used. Most contemporary applications and hybrid models are used in forecasting the geophysical, meteorological, and hydrological time series, often in situations where there is an unknown relationship between the set of input factors and the outputs.

This Special Issue aims to discuss and present the main river water temperature and ice phenomena approaches and research methods. All topics related to river thermal and ice regime modeling and forecasting in relation to climate change are welcome. The identification of the spatial and temporal water temperature and ice cover dynamics, as well as their tendencies of change, are necessary for the optimal management of river water resources in order to achieve environmental objectives and facilitate adaptation to climate change.

Dr. Renata Graf
Dr. Toamasz Kolerski
Dr. Senlin Zhu
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • climate change
  • river thermal regime
  • ice phenomena
  • time series analysis
  • hybrid modeling
  • prediction and forecasting
  • lage-scale atmospheric circulation
  • environmental conditions
  • river ecosystem
  • water resource management

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

22 pages, 10645 KiB  
Article
Daily River Water Temperature Prediction: A Comparison between Neural Network and Stochastic Techniques
by Renata Graf and Pouya Aghelpour
Atmosphere 2021, 12(9), 1154; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091154 - 07 Sep 2021
Cited by 22 | Viewed by 2378
Abstract
The temperature of river water (TRW) is an important factor in river ecosystem predictions. This study aims to compare two different types of numerical model for predicting daily TRW in the Warta River basin in Poland. The implemented models were of the stochastic [...] Read more.
The temperature of river water (TRW) is an important factor in river ecosystem predictions. This study aims to compare two different types of numerical model for predicting daily TRW in the Warta River basin in Poland. The implemented models were of the stochastic type—Autoregressive (AR), Moving Average (MA), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA)—and the artificial intelligence (AI) type—Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH). The ANFIS and RBF models had the most fitted outputs and the AR, ARMA and ARIMA patterns were the most accurate ones. The results showed that both of the model types can significantly present suitable predictions. The stochastic models have somewhat less error with respect to both the highest and lowest TRW deciles than the AIs and were found to be better for prediction studies, with the GMDH complex model in some cases reaching Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) = 0.619 °C and Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NS) = 0.992, while the AR(2) simple linear model with just two inputs was partially able to achieve better results (RMSE = 0.606 °C and NS = 0.994). Due to these promising outcomes, it is suggested that this work be extended to other catchment areas to extend and generalize the results. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue River Water Temperature and Ice Phenomena Modeling and Forecasting)
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