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Microorganisms
Special Issues
Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling
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Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling

A special issue of Microorganisms (ISSN 2076-2607). This special issue belongs to the section "Public Health Microbiology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2023) | Viewed by 5090

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Anass Bouchnita

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Mathematical Sciences, The University of Texas at El Paso, El Paso, TX, USA
Interests: multiscale modeling of living systems
Prof. Dr. Vitaly Volpert

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Directeur de recherche au CNRS, Institut Camille Jordan, University Lyon 1, 69622 Villeurbanne, France
Interests: mathematical modeling in biology and biomedicine
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

After two and a half years since its advent, COVID-19 continues to pose a threat to global public health. The landscape of COVID-19 has become extremely complex with the emergence of new variants, the waning of acquired immunity and the multitude of therapeutic and vaccine options. The ongoing monkeypox outbreak and seasonal influenza are two other infectious diseases putting a strain on the healthcare system. Characterizing the epidemiology of infectious diseases requires a proper understanding of the interplay between micro-organisms, such as viruses and bacteria, and the immune response. Given the limited available data on emerging infectious diseases, mathematical modelling remains a crucial tool used not only to gain insights into the epidemiology of infectious diseases but also to forecast the trajectory of pandemics. This Special Issue aims to bring together some of the latest advances in the field of infectious disease epidemiology and modelling. Research areas may include (but are not limited to) the following:

  • Modelling the transmission of infectious disease;
  • Characterizing the epidemiological characteristics of emerging infectious diseases;
  • Within-host models of viral or bacterial kinetics and the immune response.

We look forward to receiving your contributions.

Dr. Anass Bouchnita
Prof. Dr. Vitaly Volpert
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Microorganisms is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2700 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • COVID-19
  • compartmental-based models
  • agent-based models
  • multiscale models
  • viral kinetics
  • immune response

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

12 pages, 701 KiB  
Article
Changes in the Incidence of Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Calgary, Canada, during the SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic 2020–2022
by Leah J. Ricketson and James D. Kellner
Microorganisms 2023, 11(5), 1333; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11051333 - 18 May 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1665
Abstract
We describe the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Calgary. IPD declined significantly worldwide during 2020 and 2021. This may be due to the reduced transmission of and decrease in circulating viruses that often [...] Read more.
We describe the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) during the COVID-19 pandemic on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in Calgary. IPD declined significantly worldwide during 2020 and 2021. This may be due to the reduced transmission of and decrease in circulating viruses that often co-infect with the opportunistic pneumococcus. Pneumococcus has not been shown to frequently co-infect or cause secondary infection with SARS-CoV-2. We examined and compared incidence rates in Calgary per quarter in the pre-vaccine, post-vaccine, 2020 and 2021 (pandemic) and 2022 (late pandemic) eras. We also conducted a time series analysis from 2000–2022 allowing for change in trend at introduction of vaccines and for initiation of NPIs during the COVID-19 pandemic. Incidence declined in 2020/2021 but by the end of 2022 had begun to rapidly recover to near pre-vaccine rates. This recovery may be related to the high rates of viral activity in the winter of 2022 along with childhood vaccines being delayed during the pandemic. However, a large proportion of the IPD caused in the last quarter of 2022 was serotype 4, which has caused outbreaks in the homeless population of Calgary in the past. Further surveillance will be important to understand IPD incidence trends in the post-pandemic landscape. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling)
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14 pages, 495 KiB  
Article
Effect of Transmission and Vaccination on Time to Dominance of Emerging Viral Strains: A Simulation-Based Study
by Miguel Fudolig
Microorganisms 2023, 11(4), 860; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms11040860 - 28 Mar 2023
Viewed by 1339
Abstract
We studied the effect of transmissibility and vaccination on the time required for an emerging strain of an existing virus to dominate in the infected population using a simulation-based experiment. The emergent strain is assumed to be completely resistant to the available vaccine. [...] Read more.
We studied the effect of transmissibility and vaccination on the time required for an emerging strain of an existing virus to dominate in the infected population using a simulation-based experiment. The emergent strain is assumed to be completely resistant to the available vaccine. A stochastic version of a modified SIR model for emerging viral strains was developed to simulate surveillance data for infections. The proportion of emergent viral strain infections among the infected was modeled using a logistic curve and the time to dominance (TTD) was recorded for each simulation. A factorial experiment was implemented to compare the TTD values for different transmissibility coefficients, vaccination rates, and initial vaccination coverage. We discovered a non-linear relationship between TTD and the relative transmissibility of the emergent strain for populations with low vaccination coverage. Furthermore, higher vaccination coverage and high vaccination rates in the population yielded significantly lower TTD values. Vaccinating susceptible individuals against the current strain increases the susceptible pool of the emergent virus, which leads to the emergent strain spreading faster and requiring less time to dominate the infected population. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling)
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17 pages, 2609 KiB  
Article
Surveillance of Legionella spp. in Open Fountains: Does It Pose a Risk?
by Ioanna P. Chatziprodromidou, Ilektra Savoglidou, Venia Stavrou, George Vantarakis and Apostolos Vantarakis
Microorganisms 2022, 10(12), 2458; https://doi.org/10.3390/microorganisms10122458 - 13 Dec 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1281
Abstract
Clusters of outbreaks or cases of legionellosis have been linked to fountains. The function of fountains, along with their inadequate design and poor sanitation, in combination with the warm Mediterranean climate, can favor the proliferation of Legionella in water systems. Public fountains in [...] Read more.
Clusters of outbreaks or cases of legionellosis have been linked to fountains. The function of fountains, along with their inadequate design and poor sanitation, in combination with the warm Mediterranean climate, can favor the proliferation of Legionella in water systems. Public fountains in Mediterranean cities may pose a significant risk for public health due to the aerosolization of water. Nevertheless, few studies have been conducted on Legionella and the risk of infection in humans through fountains. In our study, the presence and quantity of Legionella spp. in fifteen external public fountains were investigated. Two samplings were performed in two different periods (dry and wet). Sixty samples were collected, quantified and analyzed with a culture ISO method. The operation of all fountains was evaluated twice using a standardized checklist. In accordance with their operation, a ranking factor (R factor) was suggested. Finally, based on these results, a quantitative microbial risk assessment was performed. Thirty water samples taken from the fountains (100%) during the dry sampling period were positive for Legionella (mean log concentration: 3.64 ± 0.45 cfu/L), whereas 24 water samples taken from the fountains during the wet period were Legionella-positive (mean log concentration: 2.36 ± 1.23 cfu/L). All fountains were classified as unsatisfactory according to the checklist for the evaluation of their function. A statistically significant correlation was found between Legionella concentration and the assessment score. The risk of Legionella infection was estimated in both periods, with higher risk in the dry period. The surveillance and risk assessment of Legionella spp. in the fountains of Patras confirmed a high prevalence and a high risk to public health. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Modelling)
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