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Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III

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A special issue of Entropy (ISSN 1099-4300). This special issue belongs to the section "Complexity".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 July 2022) | Viewed by 14053

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Prof. Dr. Nicholas Vassiliou Sarlis

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Section of Condensed Matter Physics and Solid Earth Physics Institute, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis Zografos, 157 84 Athens, Greece
Interests: earthquake precursory phenomena; physics of earthquakes; earthquake prediction; natural time analysis; thermodynamics of point defects; complex systems physics; nonlinear dynamics
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Dear Colleagues,

During the last decade, considerable progress has been made towards the understanding of preseismic processes. In this direction, the physics of critical phenomena, information entropy, and methods of complex systems have been applied for the study of ruptures in the solid Earth crust.

From another point of view, during the 21st century, many very strong earthquakes have taken place (e.g., the 2011 M9.1 Tohoku, 2004 M9.0 Sumatra and Andaman, and 2010 M8.8 Chile earthquakes). Since the instrumentation at present is much better than that of the previous century, the study of various physical (or geophysical) observables that occurred before these earthquakes may provide useful precursory signals. When combined with and studied within the aforementioned frame of modern methods, such signals may lead to more efficient earthquake prediction methods.

The aim of this Special Issue is to strengthen and present the most recent attempts to use both theoretical and experimental methods to understand the physics of earthquakes and, hence, foresee their occurrence.

Prof. Dr. Nicholas Sarlis
Guest Editor

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Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

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Keywords

earthquakes
rupture
seismicity
entropy
nonlinear dynamics
complex systems
time series analysis
natural time analysis
electromagnetic phenomena
earthquake prediction
earthquake forecasting
applications

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Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

11 pages, 24446 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Temporal Variation of b Value with Statistical Test in Wenchuan Area, China Prior to the 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake

by Weiyun Xie, Katsumi Hattori, Peng Han and Haixia Shi

Entropy 2022, 24(4), 494; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24040494 - 31 Mar 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1800

Abstract

The Gutenberg–Richter b value describes the ratio between large and small events. A number of studies have suggested that the b value decreases before large earthquakes. In this study, we investigate the temporal variation of the b value of an area along the main rupture zone of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake (M8.0) prior to the great event. Before estimating b values, we tested the earthquake catalog to make sure that we use the reliable frequency–magnitude distribution by the calculation of MC (completeness of magnitude). We define parameter P (ΔAIC ≧ 2) values to examine the significance level of b-value changes in the temporal variation by combining a boostrap method with Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC). The b value in the main rupture zone shows a long-term decrease trend. We then focus on a smaller area where the initial rupture starts. The results show that b values significantly changed about 3 months before the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake in the initial rupture area, indicating that the b value has a potential capability to monitor and detect precursory phenomena of great earthquakes. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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20 pages, 12884 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Nonlinear Statistical Features of the Seismicity in the Subduction Zone of Tehuantepec Isthmus, Southern México

by Alejandro Ramírez-Rojas and Elsa Leticia Flores-Márquez

Entropy 2022, 24(4), 480; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24040480 - 30 Mar 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1668

Abstract

After the M8.2 main-shock occurred on 7 September 2017 at the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico, the spatial distribution of seismicity has showed a clear clusterization of earthquakes along the collision region of the Tehuantepec Transform/Ridge with the Middle America Trench off Chiapas. Furthermore, nowadays, the temporal rate of occurrence in the number of earthquakes has also showed a pronounced increase. On the basis of this behavior, we studied the sequence of magnitudes of the earthquakes which occurred within the Isthmus of Tehuantepec in southern Mexico from 2010 to 2020. Since big earthquakes are considered as a phase transition, after the M8.2 main-shock, one must expect changes in the Tehuantepec ridge dynamics, which can be observed considering that the b-value in the Gutenberg–Richter law, has also showed changes in time. The goal of this paper is to characterize the behavior of the seismic activity by using the Gutenberg–Richter law, multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis, visibility graph and nowcasting method. Those methods have showed important parameters in order to assess risk, the multifractality and connectivity. Our findings indicate, first that b-value shows a dependency on time, which is clearly described by our analyses based on nowcasting method, multifractality and visibility graph. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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26 pages, 4449 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Review and Update on Some Connections between a Spring-Block SOC Model and Actual Seismicity in the Case of Subduction Zones

by Alfredo Salinas-Martínez, Ana María Aguilar-Molina, Jennifer Pérez-Oregon, Fernando Angulo-Brown and Alejandro Muñoz-Diosdado

Entropy 2022, 24(4), 435; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24040435 - 22 Mar 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1667

Abstract

The self-organized critical (SOC) spring-block models are accessible and powerful computational tools for the study of seismic subduction. This work aims to highlight some important findings through an integrative approach of several actual seismic properties, reproduced by using the Olami, Feder, and Christensen (OFC) SOC model and some variations of it. A few interesting updates are also included. These results encompass some properties of the power laws present in the model, such as the Gutenberg-Richter (GR) law, the correlation between the parameters a and b of the linear frequency-magnitude relationship, the stepped plots for cumulative seismicity, and the distribution of the recurrence times of large earthquakes. The spring-block model has been related to other relevant properties of seismic phenomena, such as the fractal distribution of fault sizes, and can be combined with the work of Aki, who established an interesting relationship between the fractal dimension and the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. Also included is the work incorporating the idea of asperities, which allowed us to incorporate several inhomogeneous models in the spring-block automaton. Finally, the incorporation of a Ruff-Kanamori-type diagram for synthetic seismicity, which is in reasonable accordance with the original Ruff and Kanamori diagram for real seismicity, is discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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13 pages, 2240 KiB

Open AccessFeature PaperArticle

Transfer Entropy of West Pacific Earthquakes to Inner Van Allen Belt Electron Bursts

by Cristiano Fidani

Entropy 2022, 24(3), 359; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24030359 - 02 Mar 2022

Viewed by 1663

Abstract

Lithosphere-ionosphere non-linear interactions create a complex system where links between different phenomena can remain hidden. The statistical correlation between West Pacific strong earthquakes and high-energy electron bursts escaping trapped conditions was demonstrated in past works. Here, it is investigated from the point of view of information. Starting from the conditional probability statistical model, which was deduced from the correlation, the Shannon entropy, the joint entropy, and the conditional entropy are calculated. Time-delayed mutual information and transfer entropy have also been calculated analytically here for binary events: by including correlations between consecutive earthquake events, and between consecutive earthquakes and electron bursts. These quantities have been evaluated for the complex dynamical system of lithosphere-ionosphere; although the expressions calculated by probabilities resulted in being valid for each pair of binary events. Peaks occurred for the same time delay as in the correlations, Δt = 1.5–3.5 h, and as well as for a new time delay, Δt = −58.5–−56.5 h, for the transfer entropy; this last is linked to EQ self-correlations from the analysis. Even if the low number of self-correlated EQs makes this second peak insignificant in this case, it is of interest to separate the non-linear contribution of the transfer entropy of binary events in the study of a complex system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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13 pages, 1554 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Complex Networks and the b-Value Relationship Using the Degree Probability Distribution: The Case of Three Mega-Earthquakes in Chile in the Last Decade

by Fernanda Andrea Martín and Denisse Pastén

Entropy 2022, 24(3), 337; https://doi.org/10.3390/e24030337 - 26 Feb 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1492

Abstract

Studies from complex networks have increased in recent years, and different applications have been utilized in geophysics. Seismicity represents a complex and dynamic system that has open questions related to earthquake occurrence. In this work, we carry out an analysis to understand the [...] Read more.

γ

) and the betweenness centrality (BC). To conduct this study, we use seismic datasets recorded from three large earthquakes that occurred in Chile: the

M_{w}

8.2 Iquique earthquake (2014), the

M_{w}

8.4 Illapel earthquake (2015) and the

M_{w}

8.8 Cauquenes earthquake (2010). We find a linear relationship between the

b -

value and the

γ

value, with an interesting finding about the ratio between the

b -

value and

γ

that gives a value of ∼0.4. We also explore a possible physical meaning of the BC. As a first result, we find that the behaviour of this metric is not the same for the three large earthquakes, and it seems that this metric is not related to the

b -

value and coupling of the zone. We present the first results about the physical meaning of metrics from complex networks in seismicity. These first results are promising, and we hope to be able to carry out further analyses to understand the physics that these complex network parameters represent in a seismic system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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20 pages, 12115 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Gravity Observations and Apparent Density Changes before the 2017 Jiuzhaigou Ms7.0 Earthquake and Their Precursory Significance

by Jinling Yang, Shi Chen, Bei Zhang, Jiancang Zhuang, Linhai Wang and Hongyan Lu

Entropy 2021, 23(12), 1687; https://doi.org/10.3390/e23121687 - 16 Dec 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2148

Abstract

An Ms7.0 earthquake struck Jiuzhaigou (China) on 8 August 2017. The epicenter was in the eastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau, an area covered by a dense time-varying gravity observation network. Data from seven repeated high-precision hybrid gravity surveys (2014–2017) allowed the microGal-level time-varying gravity signal to be obtained at a resolution better than 75 km using the modified Bayesian gravity adjustment method. The “equivalent source” model inversion method in spherical coordinates was adopted to obtain the near-crust apparent density variations before the earthquake. A major gravity change occurred from the southwest to the northeast of the eastern Tibetan Plateau approximately 2 years before the earthquake, and a substantial gravity gradient zone was consistent with the tectonic trend that gradually appeared within the focal area of the Jiuzhaigou earthquake during 2015–2016. Factors that might cause such regional gravitational changes (e.g., vertical crustal deformation and variations in near-surface water distributions) were studied. The results suggest that gravity effects contributed by these known factors were insufficient to produce gravity changes as big as those observed, which might be related to the process of fluid material redistribution in the crust. Regional change of the gravity field has precursory significance for high-risk earthquake areas and it could be used as a candidate precursor for annual medium-term earthquake prediction. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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20 pages, 10013 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Estimating the Epicenter of a Future Strong Earthquake in Southern California, Mexico, and Central America by Means of Natural Time Analysis and Earthquake Nowcasting

by Jennifer Perez-Oregon, Panayiotis K. Varotsos, Efthimios S. Skordas and Nicholas V. Sarlis

Entropy 2021, 23(12), 1658; https://doi.org/10.3390/e23121658 - 09 Dec 2021

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 2413

Abstract

It has recently been shown in the Eastern Mediterranean that by combining natural time analysis of seismicity with earthquake networks based on similar activity patterns and earthquake nowcasting, an estimate of the epicenter location of a future strong earthquake can be obtained. This is based on the construction of average earthquake potential score maps. Here, we propose a method of obtaining such estimates for a highly seismically active area that includes Southern California, Mexico and part of Central America, i.e., the area N

_{10}^{35}

_{80}^{120}

. The study includes 28 strong earthquakes of magnitude M

\geq 7.0

that occurred during the time period from 1989 to 2020. The results indicate that there is a strong correlation between the epicenter of a future strong earthquake and the average earthquake potential score maps. Moreover, the method is also applied to the very recent 7 September 2021 Guerrero, Mexico, M7 earthquake as well as to the 22 September 2021 Jiquilillo, Nicaragua, M6.5 earthquake with successful results. We also show that in 28 out of the 29 strong M

\geq 7.0

EQs studied, their epicenters lie close to an estimated zone covering only 8.5% of the total area. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Entropy, Nonlinear Dynamics, and Methods of Complex Systems in Earthquake Physics including Precursory Phenomena III)

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