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Atmosphere
Special Issues
Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events
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Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 2 September 2024 | Viewed by 3570

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Chuhan Lu

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Interests: subseasonal and seasonal AI forecast; extreme climate; climate dynamics
Dr. Dachao Jin

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/ Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD), Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Interests: air–sea interaction; climate dynamics; extreme weather and climate events
Dr. Yan Bao

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
School of Atmosphere and Remote Sensing, Wuxi University, Wuxi 214105, China
Interests: hot wave; climate warming; Tibetan Plateau; vegetation ecosystem carbon cycle

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Seasonal weather and climate extreme events, such as hurricanes, heatwaves, droughts, and floods, can have a significant impact on society and the environment. In recent years, we have seen an increase in the frequency and intensity of such events, which can lead to significant economic losses, social disruption, and environmental damage. Understanding the underlying mechanisms that drive these events and improving our ability to forecast them is critical for effective planning and management.  

The goal of this Special Issue is to bring together research on the latest advances in understanding and forecasting seasonal weather and extreme climate events. We seek to showcase original research, review papers, and perspectives on the role of climate variability and change in driving these events, advanced statistical and dynamical modeling techniques for predicting them, and the mechanisms that lead to their development and intensification. In addition, we aim to explore the impacts of these events on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems, as well as the climate services and decision-making tools that can support adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of such extreme events.  

This Special Issue welcomes original research, review papers, and perspectives on the following topics:  

  1. The role of climate variability and change in driving seasonal weather and climate extreme events.
  2. Advanced statistical and dynamical modeling techniques for predicting seasonal weather and climate extreme events.
  3. Understanding the mechanisms that lead to the development and intensification of seasonal weather and climate extreme events.
  4. Impacts of seasonal weather and climate extreme events on human health, agriculture, and ecosystems.
  5. Climate services and decision-making tools to support adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of seasonal weather and climate extreme events.

Dr. Chuhan Lu
Dr. Dachao Jin
Dr. Yan Bao
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 16820 KiB  
Article
Extended-Range Forecast of Winter Rainfall in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Intra-Seasonal Oscillation of Atmospheric Circulations
by Fei Xin and Wei Wang
Atmosphere 2024, 15(2), 206; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020206 - 06 Feb 2024
Viewed by 607
Abstract
The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an important economic region in China. Heavy winter rainfall may pose serious threats to city operations. To ensure the safe operation of the city, meteorological departments need to provide forecast results for the Spring Festival travel rush [...] Read more.
The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is an important economic region in China. Heavy winter rainfall may pose serious threats to city operations. To ensure the safe operation of the city, meteorological departments need to provide forecast results for the Spring Festival travel rush weather service. Therefore, the extended-range forecast of winter rainfall is of considerable importance. To solve this problem, based on the analysis of low-frequency rainfall and the intra-seasonal oscillation of atmospheric circulation, an extended-range forecast model for winter rainfall is developed using spatiotemporal projection methods and is applied to a case study from 2020. The results show that: (1) The precipitation in the YRD during the winter has a significant intra-seasonal oscillation (ISO) with a periodicity of 10–30 d. (2) The atmospheric circulations associated with winter rainfall in the YRD have a significant characteristic of low-frequency oscillation. From a 30-day to a 0-day lead, large modifications appear in the low-frequency atmospheric circulations at low, mid, and high latitudes. At low latitudes, strong wet convective activity characterized by a negative OLR combined with a positive RH700 correlation coefficient moves northwestward and covers the entire YRD. Meanwhile, the Western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) characterized by a positive Z500 anomaly enhances and lifts northward. At mid and high latitudes, the signal of negatively correlated Z500 northwest of Lake Balkhash propagates southeastward, indicating the cold is air moving southward. Multiple circulation factors combine together and lead to the precipitation process in the YRD. (3) Taking the intra-seasonal dynamical evolution process of the atmospheric circulation as the prediction factor, the spatiotemporal method is used to build the model for winter mean extended-range precipitation anomaly tendency in the YRD. The hindcast for the recent 10 years shows that the ensemble model has a higher skill that can reach up to 20 days. In particular, the skill of the eastern part of the YRD can reach 25 days. (4) The rainfall in the 2019/2020 winter has a significant ISO. The ensemble model could forecast the most extreme precipitation for 20 days ahead. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events)
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17 pages, 3808 KiB  
Article
Characteristics of Water Vapor Transport for Extreme Summer Precipitation in the Eastern Southwest China and Its Impact Mechanism
by Yonghua Li, Yao Wu, Jie Zhou, Bo Xiang, Juanxiong He and Dingan Huang
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1328; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091328 - 23 Aug 2023
Viewed by 920
Abstract
To improve understanding of the characteristics of extreme summer rainfall and its water vapor transport in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC), this study analyzed data on daily precipitation from 118 meteorological stations in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020, as well [...] Read more.
To improve understanding of the characteristics of extreme summer rainfall and its water vapor transport in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC), this study analyzed data on daily precipitation from 118 meteorological stations in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020, as well as daily reanalysis data from ERA5 and daily reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The study employed polynomial fitting, correlation, regression, clustering, and mixed single-particle Lagrangian trajectory (HYSPLITv5.0) modeling methods to simulate extreme summer precipitation and its water vapor transport characteristics in the ESWC and its possible formation mechanism. The results show that: (1) The contribution rate of extreme precipitation in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020 varied significantly on the interannual time scale. When the number of extreme precipitation days is high (low), the contribution rate of extreme precipitation is also high (low), while the contribution rate of general precipitation (the percentage of the sum of general precipitation to the total summer precipitation of that year) is often low (high). (2) When extreme precipitation occurs in the ESWC, compared with general precipitation, the high-level potential vortices are stronger, and the cold air from higher latitude is more likely to move southward. Meanwhile, the amount of water vapor input to the region is significantly larger than that of general precipitation. (3) There are four channels of water vapor sources in the ESWC during the period of extreme precipitation: the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the western Pacific, and the northwest. The contribution of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal is the highest. The number of extreme summer precipitation days in the ESWC is significantly negatively correlated with the water vapor budget of the eastern boundary and positively correlated with Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index in the previous winter. (4) When the winter SST is high in the IOBW mode, it can cause the western Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high to be stronger and shifted southward in summer, resulting in an increase in the number of extreme precipitation days in the ESWC. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events)
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13 pages, 6097 KiB  
Article
Analysis of Interannual Anomalies and Causes of Compound Extreme Wind and Precipitation Events in Spring over the Jiangsu–Anhui Region
by Jing Zhou, Yan Sun, Lei Liu and Lingli Zhai
Atmosphere 2023, 14(8), 1290; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081290 - 15 Aug 2023
Viewed by 781
Abstract
By using the daily average wind speed and precipitation data of 125 stations in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces of China from 1961 to 2020 and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interannual variation characteristics and its possible reasons of spring compound extreme wind [...] Read more.
By using the daily average wind speed and precipitation data of 125 stations in Jiangsu and Anhui Provinces of China from 1961 to 2020 and the monthly NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the interannual variation characteristics and its possible reasons of spring compound extreme wind and precipitation events in the Jiangsu–Anhui region were discussed. Results show that the spring compound extreme wind and precipitation events generally present a lesser distribution in the south and more in the north. The events occurring in south (north) of 32° N are basically less than (above) three days, and in some areas of northern Jiangsu, it can reach more than four days. On a regional average, the spring compound extreme wind and precipitation events have presented a significant downward trend in the past 60 years. In addition, there was an interdecadal mutation from more to less in the early 1990s, with the most significant decline in the coastal areas of northern Jiangsu. Further analysis reveals that the synthetic height anomaly field at 500 hPa corresponding to the frequent occurrence of the spring compound extreme wind and precipitation events is positive in the northern region of 45° N, while it is negative in the southern region of 45° N, which enhances the high pressure in high latitudes, increases the meridional gradient of circulation, and promotes the activity of high-latitude short-wave trough ridges and cold air. Meanwhile, a strong southwest airflow exists in the corresponding middle and low latitudes at 850 hPa, so the water vapor from the Bay of Bengal can be continuously transported to the Jiangsu–Anhui region. Overall, the abundant water vapor transportation and the convergence of southward cold air in high latitudes are conducive to the occurrence of extreme wind and precipitation events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events)
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13 pages, 4786 KiB  
Article
Causes of the Interannual Variation of Summer Precipitation in Eastern Southwest China
by Chuhan Lu, Dingan Huang, Bo Chen and Yingying Bai
Atmosphere 2023, 14(8), 1230; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14081230 - 31 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 774
Abstract
Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we conducted an EOF analysis of summer precipitation in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC) over the past 60 years. Our study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of summer precipitation in the ESWC, [...] Read more.
Using ERA5 reanalysis data, we conducted an EOF analysis of summer precipitation in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC) over the past 60 years. Our study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics and interannual variability of summer precipitation in the ESWC, as well as to reveal the possible physical mechanisms influencing its interannual variability. The results indicate that, at the interannual scale, the first two modes of summer precipitation in the ESWC exhibit a uniform pattern and a north–south dipole pattern, respectively. The maximum and minimum time coefficients of the first mode correspond to the severe flood and drought events in 1998 and 2006, respectively, indicating that their time coefficients reflect the typical events well. The tri-pole sea surface temperature anomaly in the North Atlantic, along with the sea ice anomaly near the Barents Sea, induces a quasi-zonal wave train in the upper troposphere. This wave train propagates from the tropical and mid-latitude Atlantic, traverses the mid-high latitudes of Eurasia, and reaches the eastern part of China. The wave train induces cyclonic (anticyclonic) anomalies in the north (south) of the ESWC, facilitating the convergence of high-latitude dry and cold air with warm and moist southwesterly winds from the tropical ocean. This convergence promotes increased summer precipitation in the ESWC. We provided valuable insights into the interannual variability of summer precipitation in the ESWC, shedding light on the physical mechanisms responsible for these variations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Understanding and Forecasting Seasonal Weather and Climate Extreme Events)
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