Multi-Year ENSO Events: Dynamics, Predictability, Teleconnections, and Impacts

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2023) | Viewed by 3780

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Climate School at Columbia University, Lamont Campus, 61 Route 9W, Monell Building, Room 119, Palisades, NY 10964, USA
Interests: El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dynamics and predictions; ENSO teleconnections; climate prediction from weeks to years; variability and predictability of the global monsoons and its relation to sea surface temperatures; regional climate variability and change; ENSO in warming climate; global ocean interactions

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

A multi-year La Niña, a cold phase of ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation), which began in the second half of 2020 is still ongoing. It is predicted that this La Niña event will last until the boreal winter of 2022-23 (as of August 2022), making it the first triple-dip event of the 21st century. Double-dipping is quite common, but three consecutive winters of La Niña are quite unusual. As ENSO is a major contributor to global climate variability from year to year, extreme climate events, which affect water resources, agricultural products, energy, food supply chains, transportation, and tourism among others, have a serious impact on the socio-economic world at large. Based on decades of research, Global ENSO forecasting capabilities are currently capable of forecasting ENSO several months in advance, with sufficient skill, however, gaps remain in our knowledge about ENSO, specifically with respect to the multi-year ENSO events.

This Special Issue entitled “Multi-year ENSO Events: Dynamics, Predictability, Teleconnections, and Impacts” seeks papers that provide further insight into the physical aspects of multi-year ENSO events, including the feedback processes, the role of the deep ocean, the atmosphere, the interactions between long-lasting ENSO events and other ocean basins like Indian and Atlantic Oceans, the predictability of multi-year events, and teleconnections. In this call, we are specifically looking for papers describing and highlighting how such long-lasting events could impact regional climates around the globe.

Dr. Muhammad Azhar Ehsan
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • multi-Year ENSO events
  • double-Dip El Nino and La Nina
  • triple-dipping
  • predictability
  • teleconnections
  • seasonal forecast

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

18 pages, 16362 KiB  
Article
Global El Niño–Southern Oscillation Teleconnections in CMIP6 Models
by Ilya V. Serykh and Dmitry M. Sonechkin
Atmosphere 2024, 15(4), 500; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040500 - 19 Apr 2024
Viewed by 233
Abstract
The results of a piControl experiment investigating general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were examined. The global interannual variability in the monthly surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies was considered. The [...] Read more.
The results of a piControl experiment investigating general circulation models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were examined. The global interannual variability in the monthly surface temperature (ST) and sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies was considered. The amplitudes of the fluctuations in the anomalies of these meteorological fields between opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were calculated. It was shown that most CMIP6 models reproduced fluctuations in the ST and SLP anomalies between El Niño and La Niña not only in the equatorial Pacific, but also throughout the tropics, as well as in the middle and high latitudes. Some of the CMIP6 models reproduced the global structures of the ST and SLP anomaly oscillations quite accurately between opposite phases of ENSO, as previously determined from observational data and reanalyses. It was found that the models AS-RCEC TaiESM1, CAMS CAMS-CSM1-0, CAS FGOALS-f3-L, CMCC CMCC-ESM2, KIOST KIOST-ESM, NASA GISS-E2-1-G, NCAR CESM2-WACCM-FV2, and NCC NorCPM1 reproduced strong ENSO teleconnections in regions beyond the tropical Pacific. Full article
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15 pages, 5782 KiB  
Article
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulation on the Relationship between Moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation and East Asian Winter Temperature
by Jingwen Ge, Xiaojing Jia and Hao Ma
Atmosphere 2024, 15(2), 228; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15020228 - 14 Feb 2024
Viewed by 608
Abstract
Based on observation data from 1958 to 2020, the current study explores the interdecadal modulation effects on moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and East Asian (EA) winter surface air temperature (SAT) through the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Strong and moderate ENSO episodes [...] Read more.
Based on observation data from 1958 to 2020, the current study explores the interdecadal modulation effects on moderate El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes and East Asian (EA) winter surface air temperature (SAT) through the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Strong and moderate ENSO episodes are classified by their amplitudes. The current work investigates the influence of moderate ENSO episodes on the EA winter SAT, especially moderate La Niña episodes, which show a close relationship with the EA winter SAT. To explore the PDO modulation effect on the influence of ENSO episodes, these ENSO episodes are further divided into two categories in terms of warm or cold PDO phases. The composite results show that in the warm phase of the PDO, the moderate La Niña signal is relatively strong and stable, with a profound impact on the EA winter SAT variability, whereas in the cold PDO phase, the relationship between the EA winter SAT and moderate La Niña episodes becomes ambiguous. Further studies show that the PDO modulates the moderate La Niña impacts on EA winter SAT primarily through varying the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). While moderate La Niña episodes take place in a warm PDO phase, positive and negative anomalies of sea level pressure (SLP) are observed in the Eurasian continent and mid–high-latitude North Pacific, respectively, favoring anomalous northerlies along the eastern coast of East Asia and therefore a colder-than-normal EA winter. In contrast, in a moderate La Niña winter during the cold PDO phase, the mid–high-latitude North Pacific is controlled by an anomalous high-pressure system with southerly anomalies along its western flank, and therefore, a weak warm pattern is observed for the EA winter SAT. Full article
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14 pages, 9855 KiB  
Article
Recent Strengthening of the ENSO Influence on the Early Winter East Atlantic Pattern
by Jiayi Hou, Zheng Fang and Xin Geng
Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1809; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121809 - 11 Dec 2023
Viewed by 860
Abstract
Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In [...] Read more.
Previous studies have demonstrated that the influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation varies considerably during the boreal winter. Compared to the late winter (January–March) relationship, the early winter (November–December) teleconnection is more uncertain and less understood. In this paper, we revisited this early winter regional ENSO teleconnection using the Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (HadISST) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) fifth generation reanalysis (ERA5) datasets for the period 1979–2022. It was found that the signal projected well onto the second dominant mode of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern (EAP), rather than the previously mentioned North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This influence is associated with ENSO-induced dipolar convection anomalies in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea (GMCA), which leads to an EAP via exciting Rossby waves propagating northward into the North Atlantic. We further revealed that this ENSO–EAP teleconnection underwent a pronounced interdecadal strengthening around the late 1990s. Prior to the late 1990s, the convective response to ENSO in the GMCA was weak. The atmospheric responses over the Euro-Atlantic were mainly driven by the ENSO-induced convective forcing in the tropical Indian Ocean, which favors an NAO-like pattern. In contrast, since the late 1990s, ENSO has induced stronger precipitation anomalies in the GMCA, which exert a dominant influence on the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation and produce an EAP. These results have useful implications for the further understanding of ENSO-related early winter atmospheric and climate variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Full article
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17 pages, 3408 KiB  
Article
Manifestations of Different El Niño Types in the Dynamics of the Extratropical Stratosphere
by Tatiana S. Ermakova, Andrey V. Koval, Sergei P. Smyshlyaev, Ksenia A. Didenko, Olga G. Aniskina, Elena N. Savenkova and Ekaterina V. Vinokurova
Atmosphere 2022, 13(12), 2111; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122111 - 16 Dec 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1076
Abstract
The behavior of planetary waves and their influence on the global circulation of the Northern Hemisphere during different El Niño types is studied. Three sets of five boreal winters were chosen for each El Niño type: Modoki I and II and canonical El [...] Read more.
The behavior of planetary waves and their influence on the global circulation of the Northern Hemisphere during different El Niño types is studied. Three sets of five boreal winters were chosen for each El Niño type: Modoki I and II and canonical El Niño. Based on data of the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, the spatio-temporal structure of planetary waves and the residual mean circulation were analyzed. The results show that the canonical El Niño type is characterized by the weakest wave activity in March. It is also demonstrated that warming of the polar stratosphere, accompanied by maximizing wave activity and weakening of the zonal wind, may lead to earlier stratospheric polar vortex collapse and the early spring transition under Modoki I conditions. This study is the next step in understanding of the so-called long-range teleconnections, consisting of the propagation of a signal from the tropical El Niño Southern Oscillation source into the polar stratosphere. Full article
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