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Atmosphere
Special Issues
Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems
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Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 1 July 2024 | Viewed by 6979

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Petroula Louka

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Hellenic Air Force Academy, Athens, Greece
Interests: NWP models; EPS; evaluation of NWPs and EPSs; aviation meteorology; effects of weather on aviation with emphasis on convective systems, icing, turbulence, dust transfer; study of convective systems with the use of NWPs, radar and satellite data; atmospheric boundary-layer meteorology

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Short- to medium-range weather forecasting is based both on high-resolution Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models that are able to accurately represent certain atmospheric processes, presenting the deterministic approach, as well as on the probabilistic Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) that provide information on the level of uncertainty in forecasts whose spread is obtained by perturbing both the initial conditions and also aspects of the physical processes within the model. Both require extensive research on the representation of physical processes, numerical methods, and data assimilation methodologies, while objective evaluation systems are necessary to assess their performance.

The aim of this Special Issue is to communicate advances in NWP models and EPS as state-of-the-art weather prediction tools that rely on the development of a seamless earth system modeling framework and make the best use of the model outputs in an objective way for both research and operational applications, such as in aviation, shipping, emergency warning systems, renewable energy, etc. Hence, this issue intends to collect contributions on new developments in data assimilation systems and integration of observing systems to support NWP models, improvements in model physics and parameterizations of subgrid-scale processes, and adoption of innovative computational grids and numerical methods leading to forecast skill enhancement as well as statistical approaches to evaluate their impact. In the case of EPS applications, the focus is on perturbation methods of near convection-permitting systems for developing members with a certain spread of different solutions, the range of which enables the assessment of the uncertainty in the probabilistic forecast and the confidence in the deterministic predictions. The study of high-impact weather events, their evolution, and analysis of dynamical and physical characteristics through NWP applications are also encouraged.

Dr. Petroula Louka
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • model physics
  • model parameterizations
  • subgrid-scale processes
  • perturbation methods
  • EPS spread
  • data assimilation systems
  • model evaluation
  • high-impact weather events
  • NWP & EPS applications

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

40 pages, 23230 KiB  
Article
Synoptic Analysis and Subseasonal Predictability of an Early Heatwave in the Eastern Mediterranean
by Dimitris Mitropoulos, Ioannis Pytharoulis, Prodromos Zanis and Christina Anagnostopoulou
Atmosphere 2024, 15(4), 442; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040442 - 02 Apr 2024
Viewed by 481
Abstract
Greece and the surrounding areas experienced an early warm spell with characteristics of a typical summer Mediterranean heatwave in mid-May 2020. The maximum 2 m temperature at Kalamata (southern Greece) reached 40 °C on 16 May and at Aydin (Turkey), it was 42.6 [...] Read more.
Greece and the surrounding areas experienced an early warm spell with characteristics of a typical summer Mediterranean heatwave in mid-May 2020. The maximum 2 m temperature at Kalamata (southern Greece) reached 40 °C on 16 May and at Aydin (Turkey), it was 42.6 °C on 17 May. There was a 10-standard deviation positive temperature anomaly (relative to the 1975–2005 climatology) at 850 hPa, with a southwesterly flow and warm advection over Greece and western Turkey from 11 to 20 May. At 500 hPa, a ridge was located over the Eastern Mediterranean, resulting in subsidence. The aims of this study were (a) to investigate the prevailing synoptic conditions during this event in order to document its occurrence and (b) to assess whether this out-of-season heatwave was predictable on subseasonal timescales. The subseasonal predictability is not a well-researched scientific topic in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The ensemble global forecasts from six international meteorological centres (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts—ECMWF, United Kingdom Met Office—UKMO, China Meteorological Administration—CMA, Korea Meteorological Administration—KMA, National Centers for Environmental Prediction—NCEP and Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia—HMCR) and limited area forecasts using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with the Advanced Research dynamic solver (WRF) forced by Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv.2; NCEP) forecasts were evaluated for lead times ranging from two to six weeks using statistical scores. WRF was integrated using two telescoping nests covering Europe, the Mediterranean basin and large part of the Atlantic Ocean, with a grid spacing of 25 km, and Greece–western Turkey at 5 km. The results showed that there were some accurate forecasts initiated two weeks before the event’s onset. There was no systematic benefit from the increase of the WRF model’s resolution from 25 km to 5 km for forecasting the 850 hPa temperature, but regarding the prediction of maximum air temperature near the surface, the high resolution (5 km) nest of WRF produced a marginally better performance than the coarser resolution domain (25 km). Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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19 pages, 10045 KiB  
Article
Expected Changes in Heating and Cooling Degree Days over Greece in the near Future Based on Climate Scenarios Projections
by Athanasios Karagiannidis, Konstantinos Lagouvardos, Vassiliki Kotroni and Elisavet Galanaki
Atmosphere 2024, 15(4), 393; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15040393 - 22 Mar 2024
Viewed by 520
Abstract
The change in heating and cooling needs of Greece in the near future due to the climate change is assessed in the present study. Global and regional climate models and two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the expected change [...] Read more.
The change in heating and cooling needs of Greece in the near future due to the climate change is assessed in the present study. Global and regional climate models and two different representative concentration pathways (RCPs) are used to simulate the expected change in temperature. A widely used methodology of computation of heating degree days (HDDs) and cooling degree days (CDDs) is employed with a base temperature of 18 °C. In agreement with the expected temperature rise in the near future, an HDD decrease and CDD increase under both RCPs is also expected. The changes under RCP8.5 are stronger compared to those under RCP4.5. Differences related to topography are noted. The HDD decrease is stronger than CDD increase but the relative increase in CDDs is higher than the relative increase in HDDs. The highest absolute decreases in HDDs are expected for February and March while the highest absolute increases in CDDs are expected during the three summer months. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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25 pages, 32622 KiB  
Article
Integrating Ensemble Weather Predictions in a Hydrologic-Hydraulic Modelling System for Fine-Resolution Flood Forecasting: The Case of Skala Bridge at Evrotas River, Greece
by George Varlas, Anastasios Papadopoulos, George Papaioannou, Vassiliki Markogianni, Angelos Alamanos and Elias Dimitriou
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010120 - 19 Jan 2024
Viewed by 1553
Abstract
Ensemble weather forecasting involves the integration of multiple simulations to improve the accuracy of predictions by introducing a probabilistic approach. It is difficult to accurately predict heavy rainfall events that cause flash floods and, thus, ensemble forecasting could be useful to reduce uncertainty [...] Read more.
Ensemble weather forecasting involves the integration of multiple simulations to improve the accuracy of predictions by introducing a probabilistic approach. It is difficult to accurately predict heavy rainfall events that cause flash floods and, thus, ensemble forecasting could be useful to reduce uncertainty in the forecast, thus improving emergency response. In this framework, this study presents the efforts to develop and assess a flash flood forecasting system that combines meteorological, hydrological, and hydraulic modeling, adopting an ensemble approach. The integration of ensemble weather forecasting and, subsequently, ensemble hydrological-hydraulic modeling can improve the accuracy of flash flood predictions, providing useful probabilistic information. The flash flood that occurred on 26 January 2023 in the Evrotas river basin (Greece) is used as a case study. The meteorological model, using 33 different initial and boundary condition datasets, simulated heavy rainfall, the hydrological model, using weather inputs, simulated discharge, and the hydraulic model, using discharge data, estimated water level at a bridge. The results show that the ensemble modeling system results in timely forecasts, while also providing valuable flooding probability information for 1 to 5 days prior, thus facilitating bridge flood warning. The continued refinement of such ensemble multi-model systems will further enhance the effectiveness of flash flood predictions and ultimately save lives and property. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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24 pages, 12192 KiB  
Article
Sensitivity of Simulated Conditions to Different Parameterization Choices Over Complex Terrain in Central Chile
by Jorge Arévalo, Julio C. Marín, Mailiu Díaz, Graciela Raga, Diana Pozo, Ana María Córdova and Darrel Baumgardner
Atmosphere 2024, 15(1), 10; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15010010 - 21 Dec 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 818
Abstract
This study evaluates the performance of fourteen high-resolution WRF runs with different combinations of parameterizations in simulating the atmospheric conditions over the complex terrain of central Chile during austral winter and spring. We focus on the validation of results for coastal, interior valleys, [...] Read more.
This study evaluates the performance of fourteen high-resolution WRF runs with different combinations of parameterizations in simulating the atmospheric conditions over the complex terrain of central Chile during austral winter and spring. We focus on the validation of results for coastal, interior valleys, and mountainous areas independently, and also present an in-depth analysis of two synoptic-scale events that occurred during the study period: a frontal system and a cut-off low. The performance of the simulations decreases from the coast to higher altitudes, even though the differences are not very clear between the coast and interior valleys for 10 m wind speeds and precipitation. The simulated vertical profiles show a warmer and drier boundary layer and a cooler and moister free atmosphere than observed. The choice of the land-surface model has the largest positive impact on near-surface variables with the five-layer thermal diffusion scheme showing the smallest errors. Precipitation is more sensitive to the choice of cumulus parameterizations, with the simplified Arakawa–Schubert scheme generally providing the best performance for absolute errors. When examining the performance of the model simulating rain/no-rain events for different thresholds, also the cumulus parameterizations better represented the false alarm ratio (FAR) and the bias score (BS). However, the Morrison microphysics scheme resulted in the best critical success index (CSI), while the probability of detection (POD) was better in the simulation without analysis nudging. Overall, these results provide guidance to other researchers and help to identify the best WRF configuration for a specific research or operational goal. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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23 pages, 12204 KiB  
Article
Non-Parametric and Robust Sensitivity Analysis of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Model in the Tropical Andes Region
by Jhon E. Hinestroza-Ramirez, Juan David Rengifo-Castro, Olga Lucia Quintero, Andrés Yarce Botero and Angela Maria Rendon-Perez
Atmosphere 2023, 14(4), 686; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14040686 - 06 Apr 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1392
Abstract
With the aim of understanding the impact of air pollution on human health and ecosystems in the tropical Andes region (TAR), we aim to couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the chemical transport models (CTM) Long-Term Ozone Simulation and European [...] Read more.
With the aim of understanding the impact of air pollution on human health and ecosystems in the tropical Andes region (TAR), we aim to couple the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) with the chemical transport models (CTM) Long-Term Ozone Simulation and European Operational Smog (LOTOS–EUROS), at high and regional resolutions, with and without assimilation. The factors set for WRF, are based on the optimized estimates of climate and weather in cities and urban heat islands in the TAR region. It is well known in the weather research and forecasting field, that the uncertainty of non-linear models is a major issue, thus making a sensitivity analysis essential. Consequently, this paper seeks to quantify the performance of the WRF model in the presence of disturbances to the initial conditions (IC), for an arbitrary set of state-space variables (pressure and temperature), simulating a disruption in the inputs of the model. To this aim, we considered three distributions over the error term: a normal standard distribution, a normal distribution, and an exponential distribution. We analyze the sensitivity of the outputs of the WRF model by employing non-parametric and robust statistical techniques, such as kernel distribution estimates, rank tests, and bootstrap. The results show that the WRF model is sensitive in time, space, and vertical levels to changes in the IC. Finally, we demonstrate that the error distribution of the output differs from the error distribution induced over the input data, especially for Gaussian distributions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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20 pages, 10931 KiB  
Article
Scale-Dependent Verification of the OU MAP Convection Allowing Ensemble Initialized with Multi-Scale and Large-Scale Perturbations during the 2019 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment
by Aaron Johnson, Fan Han, Yongming Wang and Xuguang Wang
Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 255; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020255 - 28 Jan 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1156
Abstract
Given the large range of resolvable space and time scales in large-domain convection-allowing for ensemble forecasts, there is a need to better understand optimal initial-condition perturbation strategies to sample the forecast uncertainty across these space and time scales. This study investigates two initial-condition [...] Read more.
Given the large range of resolvable space and time scales in large-domain convection-allowing for ensemble forecasts, there is a need to better understand optimal initial-condition perturbation strategies to sample the forecast uncertainty across these space and time scales. This study investigates two initial-condition perturbation strategies for CONUS-domain ensemble forecasts that extend into the two-day forecast lead time using traditional and object-based verification methods. Initial conditions are perturbed either by downscaling perturbations from a coarser resolution ensemble (i.e., LARGE) or by adopting the analysis perturbations from a convective-scale, EnKF system (i.e., MULTI). It was found that MULTI had more ensemble spread than LARGE across all scales initially, while LARGE’s perturbation energy surpassed that of MULTI after 3 h and continued to maintain a surplus over MULTI for the rest of the 36h forecast period. Impacts on forecast bias were mixed, depending on the forecast lead time and forecast threshold. However, MULTI was found to be significantly more skillful than LARGE at early forecast hours for the meso-gamma and meso-beta scales (1–9h), which is a result of a larger and better-sampled ensemble spread at these scales. Despite having a smaller ensemble spread, MULTI was also significantly more skillful than LARGE on the meso-alpha scale during the 20–24h period due to a better spread-skill relation. MULTI’s performance on the meso-alpha scale was slightly worse than LARGE’s performance during the 6–12h period, as LARGE’s ensemble spread surpassed that of MULTI. The advantages of each method for different forecast aspects suggest that the optimal perturbation strategy may require a combination of both the MULTI and LARGE techniques for perturbing initial conditions in a large-domain, convection-allowing ensemble. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Ensemble Prediction Systems)
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Diagnosis of low visibility and fog from ERA-5 reanalysis data
P.M. Guerreiro and P.M.M. Soares

Pedro M.P. Guerreiro, Portuguese Air Force Academy Research Center, Portugal
Pedro M.M. Soares, Instituto Dom Luiz, Faculdade de Ciencias, Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal
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