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The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction

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A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Air, Climate Change and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (20 May 2023) | Viewed by 8118

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Special Issue Editors

Prof. Dr. Xuguang Sun

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Guest Editor

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, China
Interests: multi-scale climate variability of East Asian summer monsoon; extreme event and intraseasonal variability; climate dynamics; air-sea interaction; numerical modeling

Prof. Dr. Zhiwei Zhu

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Guest Editor

School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
Interests: East Asian summer monsoon; climate dynamics

Prof. Dr. Qing Bao

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Guest Editor

Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
Interests: Asian monsoon dynamics; climate modeling

Prof. Dr. Youcun Qi

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Guest Editor

Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China
Interests: radar-based quantitative precipitation estimation; short-term quantitative precipitation forecast
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

East Asia is a monsoon region where droughts and floods are major meteorological disasters caused by the abnormal East Asian monsoon variation. The East Asian monsoon is a unique monsoon system that contains several components, such as low-level southwesterly/northeasterly winds, western Pacific subtropical highs, Asian subtropical westerly jets, and South Asian highs. It is highly complicated in terms of climate variability, ranging from subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, and its related precipitation anomalies over East Asia make simulation and prediction of the East Asian monsoon and its impact on precipitation more difficult. With newly developed, accurate, and fine resolution data (e.g., radar-based data, satellite-based data, and reanalysis data) and accelerated global warming, the impact of the East Asian monsoon on precipitation needs to be further investigated from observation at various time scales, and its simulation and prediction should be calibrated and improved accordingly.

This Special Issue aims to gather new innovative results on the impact of the East Asian monsoon on precipitation from observations, mechanisms, and predictions, and will focus on the subseasonal to interdecadal variabilities of the East Asian monsoon and its related precipitation anomalies, attempting to reveal new phenomena and deepen our understanding of the air–sea interactions and tropical–extratropical interactions involved. Moreover, the simulation and prediction of the East Asian monsoon and its impact on precipitation will be evaluated, and some possible ways to improve the simulation and prediction skills of subseasonal to interdecadal East Asian monsoon precipitation variabilities will also be explored. A good understanding and the accurate prediction of East Asian monsoon variabilities and their impacts on precipitation are essential to alleviate the effects of meteorological disasters, and people will benefit greatly from such specific studies; for example, drought and flood early warning and risk mitigation planning, scientific and reasonable development and utilization of water resources, etc., which are closely related to the journal scope of the environmental sustainability of human beings.

In this Special Issue, original research articles and reviews are welcome. Research areas may include (but are not limited to) the following:

The characteristics of the variability of the East Asian monsoon and its associated precipitation at subseasonal to interdecadal time scales (including atmospheric circulations and teleconnections, extreme precipitation events, etc.);
The possible mechanisms of East Asian monsoon variability involved from the aspects of air–sea interaction, tropical–extratropical interaction, etc.;
Numerical simulations of both the East Asian monsoon and its impact on precipitation, as well as discussions on modeling biases;
Novel prediction methods and applications of East Asian monsoon precipitation at subseasonal to interdecadal time scales.

We look forward to receiving your contributions.

Prof. Dr. Xuguang Sun
Prof. Dr. Zhiwei Zhu
Prof. Dr. Qing Bao
Prof. Dr. Youcun Qi
Guest Editors

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Keywords

East Asian monsoon
precipitation
extreme precipitation
drought and flood
atmospheric circulation
westerly jet
subtropical high
subseasonal-to-interdecadal variability
numerical simulation
prediction

Published Papers (5 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 5038 KiB

Open AccessArticle

A Statistical Prediction Model for Summer Precipitation in China Based on TSD Method and EOF Modes’ Time Coefficients

by Zihuang Xie, Yimin Zhu, Yijia Hu, Yao Ha and Zhong Zhong

Sustainability 2023, 15(14), 10928; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151410928 - 12 Jul 2023

Viewed by 678

Abstract

It is a challenge to improve the skill of seasonal precipitation prediction, because there are many factors affecting summer precipitation in China, which are found on different time scales and have complex interactions with each other. For these reasons, we establish a prediction model with the time-scale decomposition (TSD) method to investigate whether the TSD has an improving effect on the prediction skill of summer precipitation in China. Using this statistical model, the predictors and predictands will be separated into interannual and interdecadal time scales, after which Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) decomposition is performed on these two components, and their time coefficients are predicted, respectively. The hindcast cross-validation results show that the model without TSD has prediction skills only in some regions of East China and South China. Compared with the model without TSD, surprisingly, the model with TSD can significantly improve the prediction performance in more regions in China, such as Xinjiang Province and Northeast China. The anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC) between hindcast precipitation with TSD and observation are higher in most years than that without TSD. The results of the independent sample test show that the forecast model with TSD has a stable and gratifying prediction skill, and the averaged ACC is increased by more than 0.1. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction)

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16 pages, 8175 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Evaluation of MSWX Bias-Corrected Meteorological Forcing Datasets in China

by Hai Lin, Yi Yang, Shuguang Wang, Shuyu Wang, Jianping Tang and Guangtao Dong

Sustainability 2023, 15(12), 9283; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15129283 - 8 Jun 2023

Cited by 2 | Viewed by 999

Abstract

Near-surface meteorological forcing (NSMF) datasets, mixed observations, and model forecasts are widely used in global climate change and sustainable development studies. For practical purposes, it is important to evaluate NSMF datasets, especially those released latest, and determine their strengths and limitations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of Multi-Source Weather (MSWX) in China over the period of 1979–2016. For comparison, ECMWF Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5), China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) and Princeton Global Forcing (PGF) dataset are also evaluated to determine the strengths and weaknesses of MSWX. The following variables are compared with observations over 2400 stations: 2 m air temperature (T2m), 2 m daily maximum air temperature (Tmax), 2 m daily minimum air temperature (Tmin), precipitation (P), and 10 m wind speed (V10). The evaluation is conducted in terms of climatology, inter-annual variations and seasonal cycles. Results show that MSWX reasonably reproduces the spatial pattern of T2m with root-mean-square errors (RMSEs) below 1.12 °C and spatial correlations above 0.97, but underestimates Tmax and overestimates Tmin, with biases ranging from −2.0 °C to 2.0 °C, especially over the North China and Northeast China. Compared with ERA5 and PGF, MSWX can better simulate the inter-annual variations of surface air temperature with high spatial correlations (>0.97) but shows higher RMSEs than PGF. For precipitation, MSWX accurately captures the primary features of precipitation, including significant characteristics or patterns of the precipitation climatology and inter-annual variation. Its inter-annual variation shows low RMSEs ranging from 0.55 mm/day to 0.8 mm/day, compared to ERA5 and PGF. However, regions with abundant precipitation exhibit higher biases. Because the biased Global Wind Atlas (GWA3.1) is used for the wind bias correction of MSWX, MSWX significantly overestimates the annual mean wind speed, but it is consistently well-correlated with observations, with RMSEs less than 1.5 m/s and spatial correlations greater than 0.6 over the period of 1979–2016. This study reveals both the advantages and disadvantages of MSWX, and indicates the need for research into climate change and sustainable development in East Asia. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction)

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17 pages, 3491 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Changes of Water Vapor Budget over East Asia in Response to 4xCO₂ Concentration Forcing

by Zhengqin Shen, Tao Xu, Guanyu Liu, Xuguang Sun and Xiu-Qun Yang

Sustainability 2023, 15(1), 313; https://doi.org/10.3390/su15010313 - 25 Dec 2022

Viewed by 1780

Abstract

Water resources are essential for the economic development and social security in East Asia, especially under global warming. Based on newly released CMIP6 149-year simulation data from a pre-industrial control experiment (piControl) and a forced experiment on the abrupt quadrupling of CO₂ concentration (abrupt-4xCO₂), changes of water vapor budget over East Asia due to 4xCO₂ concentration forcing and their possible mechanisms are investigated. Change of precipitation (P) demonstrates a spatial pattern of “Southern Flood and Northern Drought” (SFND) in eastern China, which can also be seen in the change of evaporation (E), though at a much smaller amplitude. The change of water vapor budget represented by E–P is dominated by P, which is primarily induced by changes of water vapor divergence associated with both moisture-related thermodynamic contribution and atmospheric circulation-related dynamic contribution. Specifically, under global warming, tropical El Nino-like SST warming causes weakened Walker circulation through decreased zonal temperature gradient, while amplified Arctic warming induces a negative Arctic Oscillation pattern via reduced meridional temperature gradient. The combined signals from tropical and mid-high latitudes result in significant long-term changes of water vapor convergence as well as much more precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley, forming the SFND. Furthermore, the intensity of the SFND change pattern could also have notable interdecadal variation, which is mainly attributed to the modulation of interdecadal signals of the Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Results of this study could provide an important scientific basis for the future planning and management of water resources over East Asia, specifically in eastern China. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction)

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13 pages, 3201 KiB

Open AccessArticle

The Climate Characteristics of the Northeast China Cold Vortex against the Background of Global Warming

by Yihe Fang, Jingjing Hua, Yiqiu Yu, Yitong Lin and Chunyu Zhao

Sustainability 2022, 14(15), 8982; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14158982 - 22 Jul 2022

Viewed by 1217

Abstract

In this study, by using the ERA5 data of the atmospheric circulation field that was re-analyzed by the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), we revealed the features of the Northeast China Cold Vortex (NCCV) from 1950 to 2020 (including active days, occurrence time of NCCV processes, and process durations). This study focused on a comparative analysis of the differences in the NCCV’s climate characteristics in the cold and warm periods to help future predictions. The results revealed the following: From 1950 to 2020, the NCCV occurred 2961 times on 9782 days. The average annual occurrence time of NCCV processes, annual average of cold vortex days, and average process duration of the NCCVs were 41.7 times, 137.8 days, and 3.6 days, respectively. These indicators of the NCCVs showed an increasing trend, but the trend was not significant. The NCCVs occurred most frequently in May, followed by June, and were located at the southernmost point in June. Therefore, it had the most active days and a relatively long process duration in May and June, significantly impacting Northeast China. During the cold period (1950–1980), the annual occurrence time of NCCV processes, number of cold vortex days, and the process duration of the NCCVs all showed an increasing trend, while in the warm period, these showed a decreasing trend. In addition, the durations of the NCCVs decreased significantly in the warm period, which indicated that the NCCV processes continued to weaken after climate warming. During the warm period (1981–2020), the frequency and active days of the NCCVs throughout the year and most months increased, and its general location was more southerly than in the cold period. Moreover, the annual average occurrence time of NCCV processes, number of active days, and average duration of the NCCV in the warm period were more than those in the cold period. Finally, the NCCVs continued for longer in autumn and winter than in spring and summer, and the durations of the NCCVs increased in warm periods. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction)

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15 pages, 5041 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Decadal Change of Meiyu Onset over Yangtze River and Its Causes

by Yong Qian, Pangchi Hsu, Zhen Fu, Yunyun Liu and Qiaoping Li

Sustainability 2022, 14(9), 5085; https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095085 - 23 Apr 2022

Cited by 3 | Viewed by 1432

Abstract

Meiyu onset marks the beginning of the rainfall season in the densely populated Yangtze River Basin, whether the Meiyu initiates early or late in June, and thus has a profound effect on the several hundred million people living there. Applying a Bayesian change-point analysis to data from 1960–2014, we objectively detected an abrupt change of Meiyu onset around 2002. The Meiyu onset date averaged over 2002–2014 was 19 June, delayed by about two weeks compared to that of 1989–2001 (6 June). This decadal change is attributable to the distinct amplitude of moisture transport toward the Yangtze River Basin induced by the changes in climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO). The CISO emerges as the annual cycle interacts with the transient intraseasonal perturbations. The wet/dry phases of the CISO are consistent with the climatological active/break stages of the East Asian summer monsoon. In early June, the northwestward-propagating CISO convective/cyclonic anomalies over the western North Pacific (WNP) show weaker amplitude during the earlier-onset epoch compared to the delayed-onset epoch. Thus, relative to the delayed onset epoch, a quasi-barotropic anticyclonic CISO anomaly appears over the WNP in early June during the earlier-onset years. This anticyclonic anomaly was conducive to the westward extension of the WNP subtropical high, conveying warm, moist air from the tropics toward the Yangtze River Basin for the rainy season onset. Model experiments suggest that the decadal changes in WNP CISO intensity were associated with the epochal changes in large-scale background circulation and sea surface temperature over the WNP. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The Impacts of East Asian Monsoon on Precipitation: Observation, Mechanism and Prediction)

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