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Bayesian Network Modelling in Data Sparse Environments

A special issue of Entropy (ISSN 1099-4300). This special issue belongs to the section "Multidisciplinary Applications".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 15 September 2024 | Viewed by 997

Special Issue Editors

Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis, School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, VIC 3010, Australia
Interests: probabilistic modelling; applied maths; risk analysis; decision making under uncertainty; uncertainty quantification; structured expert judgement; elicitation protocols
Delft Institute of Applied Mathematics (DIAM), Delft University of Technology, 2628 CD Delft, The Netherlands
Interests: structured expert judgement; decision science; Bayesian networks; uncertainty quantification

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Bayesian networks (BNs) are graphical representations (i.e., directed acyclic graphs, DAGs) of the joint probability distribution of dependent variables. The DAG captures (conditional) independencies among variables, which enables a convenient factorization of the joint distribution. BNs have found applications in many diverse domains.

Building BNs consists of two main steps: (1) structure specification and (2) domain-specific parameterization. However, these steps are iterative when communicated to stakeholders, monitored and reviewed. They are frequently refined using domain experts’ input.

Both structure and parameters can be obtained either from data or experts, but they are typically obtained using a combination of both. Despite the current data-rich environment, often there are insufficient data to evaluate potential future events, risks, or opportunities, or to represent their interactions.

While formal protocols exist to quantify parameters in data-sparse environments, there is a gap in well-defined procedures for DAG construction. More research is required to appropriately address the inherent subjectivity involved in constructing BNs in such environments. Moreover, transparency and rigor in reporting, documenting, and justifying all choices made during the BN modeling process should be made a priority.

We invite submissions, including original research articles and reviews, both from an applied perspective as well as methodological developments relating to all issues outlined above.

Dr. Anca Hanea
Dr. Tina Nane
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Entropy is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Bayesian networks
  • expert judgement
  • elicitation protocols
  • dependence modelling
  • uncertainty analysis
  • data-sparse environments

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

31 pages, 5366 KiB  
Article
Elicitation of Rank Correlations with Probabilities of Concordance: Method and Application to Building Management
by Benjamin Ramousse, Miguel Angel Mendoza-Lugo, Guus Rongen and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles
Entropy 2024, 26(5), 360; https://doi.org/10.3390/e26050360 - 25 Apr 2024
Viewed by 214
Abstract
Constructing Bayesian networks (BN) for practical applications presents significant challenges, especially in domains with limited empirical data available. In such situations, field experts are often consulted to estimate the model’s parameters, for instance, rank correlations in Gaussian copula-based Bayesian networks (GCBN). Because there [...] Read more.
Constructing Bayesian networks (BN) for practical applications presents significant challenges, especially in domains with limited empirical data available. In such situations, field experts are often consulted to estimate the model’s parameters, for instance, rank correlations in Gaussian copula-based Bayesian networks (GCBN). Because there is no consensus on a ‘best’ approach for eliciting these correlations, this paper proposes a framework that uses probabilities of concordance for assessing dependence, and the dependence calibration score to aggregate experts’ judgments. To demonstrate the relevance of our approach, the latter is implemented to populate a GCBN intended to estimate the condition of air handling units’ components—a key challenge in building asset management. While the elicitation of concordance probabilities was well received by the questionnaire respondents, the analysis of the results reveals notable disparities in the experts’ ability to quantify uncertainty. Moreover, the application of the dependence calibration aggregation method was hindered by the absence of relevant seed variables, thus failing to evaluate the participants’ field expertise. All in all, while the authors do not recommend to use the current model in practice, this study suggests that concordance probabilities should be further explored as an alternative approach for the elicitation of dependence. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Bayesian Network Modelling in Data Sparse Environments)
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