High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 25 September 2024 | Viewed by 1397

Special Issue Editors


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Guest Editor
1. Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Divisão de Meteorologia Aeronáutica, Rua C do Aeroporto, 1749-077 Lisboa, Portugal
2. Centre for the Research of Agroenvironmental and Biological Sciences, CITAB, Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro, UTAD, 5000-801 Vila Real, Portugal
Interests: windstorms; thunderstorms; tornadoes; downbursts; mountain waves and turbulence; aircraft icing
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Guest Editor
Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute, Forecasting and Warning Centre, Jeséniova 17, 833 15 Bratislava, Slovakia
Interests: numerical weather prediction; nowcasting; severe thunderstorms; wet snow; downslope windstorms; forecasting and user aspects

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

High-Impact Weather Events are usually associated with severe thunderstorms, tropical and extra-tropical cyclones. These systems can cause hazardous weather conditions such as heavy rain, and strong winds, including tornadoes and downbursts, hail and lightning. Despite improvements made in recent years, numerical weather prediction (NWP) models operational in national meteorological services are unable to accurately predict the timing and location of such hazards. On a different time-scale, heat waves and droughts also have a significant social impact. In addition, recent studies have shown that compound events (multivariate and simultaneous extremes) with a very high impact on society have become more frequent, and this trend is expected to persist with increasing global warming. One example of a compound event with a very high impact on society is the simultaneous occurrence of heat waves and extreme wind events, which can intensify forest fires, ultimately leading to large deforestation and loss of life.

This Special Issue welcomes papers that contribute to improving the knowledge about high-impact weather, such as:

  • Studies addressing the dynamic aspects and predictability of High-Impact Weather Events, focusing on ensemble forecasting systems and convection-permitting models;
  • Observational and model-based studies of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones and severe convective storms;
  • Nowcasting techniques, using satellite, radar, lightning systems and other observations;
  • Studies quantifying the effect of climate change on the characteristics of tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, and on drought frequencies;
  • Studies addressing the predictability of compound events and the impact of climate change on the frequency of the compound events.

Dr. Margarida Belo-Pereira
Dr. André Simon
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

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Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Atmosphere is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • tropical cyclones
  • explosive cyclogenesis
  • windstorms
  • hailstorms
  • tornadic storms
  • squall lines
  • heat waves
  • climate change
  • ensemble forecast
  • model objective verification

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

20 pages, 11618 KiB  
Article
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Drivers of Severe Sub-Hourly Precipitation Events in Mainland Portugal
by José Cruz, Margarida Belo-Pereira, André Fonseca and João A. Santos
Atmosphere 2023, 14(9), 1443; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14091443 - 16 Sep 2023
Viewed by 927
Abstract
Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to [...] Read more.
Sub-hourly heavy precipitation events (SHHPs) associated with regional low-pressure (RegL) systems in Portugal are a natural hazard that may have significant socioeconomic implications, namely in agriculture. Therefore, in this paper, their dynamic and thermodynamic drivers are analysed. Three weather stations were used to isolate SHHPs from 2000 to 2022. Higher precipitation variability is found in southern Portugal, with a higher ratio of extreme events on fewer rainy days. This study shows that these SHHP events are associated with low-pressure systems located just to the west of the Iberian Peninsula. These systems exhibit a cold core, particularly strong at mid-levels, and a positive vorticity anomaly, which is stronger in the upper troposphere, extending downward to low levels. These conditions drive differential positive vorticity advection and, therefore, rising motion to the east of the low-pressure systems. Moreover, at low levels, these systems promote moisture advection over western Iberia, also generating instability conditions, which are assessed by instability indices (Convective available potential energy, the Total-Totals index, and the K-index). The combination of these conditions drives heavy precipitation events. Lastly, the total column cloud ice water revealed higher values for the heavier precipitation events, suggesting that it may be a useful predictor of such events. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue High-Impact Weather Events: Dynamics, Variability and Predictability)
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