Research

14 pages, 5846 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Future Seasonal Drought Conditions over the CORDEX-MENA/Arab Domain

by Marlene A. Tomaszkiewicz

Atmosphere 2021, 12(7), 856; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12070856 - 30 Jun 2021

Cited by 12 | Viewed by 2340

Seasonal drought is often overlooked because its impacts are less devasting than meteorological or hydrological drought. Nevertheless, short-term drought can have significant impacts on soil moisture content, agricultural crop yield, and sand and dust storms. Using data obtained from bias-corrected regional climate modelling [...] Read more.

Seasonal drought is often overlooked because its impacts are less devasting than meteorological or hydrological drought. Nevertheless, short-term drought can have significant impacts on soil moisture content, agricultural crop yield, and sand and dust storms. Using data obtained from bias-corrected regional climate modelling (RCM) outputs, future seasonal drought is investigated over the water-scarce Arab domain using SPI-3. The climate modelling outputs include three downscaled mainframe GCMs downscaled using a single RCM for two climate scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results across the region exhibit spatial and temporal variability. For example, Rift Valley, in the eastern sub-Sahara, projects less frequent and less severe drought, particularly during the winter (DJF) months. Conversely, the Morocco Highlands and adjacent Mediterranean coast signals a dramatic increase in drought by end-century during winter (DJF) and spring (MAM). Moderate increase in drought indicated in the greater Mashreq in spring (MAM) can be linked to sand and dust storm risk. Thirdly, autumn drought (SON) is linked to increased forest fire risk in the Levant. Projected increases in drought frequency and severity call for adaptation measures to reduce impacts. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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15 pages, 4900 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Major Floods and Tropical Cyclones over Bangladesh: Clustering from ENSO Timescales

by Md Wahiduzzaman

Atmosphere 2021, 12(6), 692; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12060692 - 28 May 2021

Cited by 11 | Viewed by 3708

Abstract

The present study analyzed major floods and tropical cyclones (TCs) over Bangladesh on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) timescales. The geographical location, low and almost flat topography have introduced Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries of the world. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable [...] Read more.

The present study analyzed major floods and tropical cyclones (TCs) over Bangladesh on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) timescales. The geographical location, low and almost flat topography have introduced Bangladesh as one of the most vulnerable countries of the world. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the extreme hazard events like floods and cyclones which are impacted by ENSO. ENSO is mainly a tropical event, but its impact is global. El Niño (La Niña) represents the warm (cold) phase of the ENSO cycle. Rainfall and cyclonic disturbances data have been used for the period of 70 years (1948–2017) and compared with the corresponding observations of the Southern Oscillation Index. Result shows that major flood events occurred during the monsoon period, and most of them are during the La Niña condition, consistent with the historical archives of flood events in Bangladesh. Synoptic conditions of these events are well matched during La Niña condition. On the other hand, the major TC cases are in the period of either pre-monsoon or post-monsoon season. The pre-monsoon cases are under neutral (developing La Niña) or El Niño and the post-monsoon cases are under La Niña, consistent with climatology studies that La Niña is favorable to have more intense TCs over the Bay of Bengal. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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23 pages, 93677 KiB

Open AccessEditor’s ChoiceArticle

Exposure Assessment of Climate Extremes over the Europe–Mediterranean Region

by Mehmet Barış Kelebek, Fulden Batibeniz and Barış Önol

Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 633; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050633 - 17 May 2021

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4066

Abstract

The use of a compact set of climate change indexes enhances our understanding of the combined impacts of extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we developed the modified Climate Extremes Index (mCEI) to obtain unified information about different types of extremes. For this [...] Read more.

The use of a compact set of climate change indexes enhances our understanding of the combined impacts of extreme climatic conditions. In this study, we developed the modified Climate Extremes Index (mCEI) to obtain unified information about different types of extremes. For this purpose, we calculated 10 different climate change indexes considering the temperature extremes, extreme precipitation, and moisture surplus and drought over the Europe–Mediterranean (EURO–MED) region for the 1979–2016 period. As a holistic approach, mCEI provides spatiotemporal information, and the high-resolution grid-based data allow us to accomplish detailed country-based and city-based analyses. The analyses indicate that warm temperature extremes rise significantly over the EURO–MED region at a rate of 1.9% decade⁻¹, whereas the cold temperature extremes decrease. Extreme drought has a significant increasing trend of 3.8% decade⁻¹. Although there are regional differences, extreme precipitation indexes have a significant increasing tendency. According to the mCEI, the major hotspots for the combined extremes are the Mediterranean coasts, the Balkan countries, Eastern Europe, Iceland, western Russia, western Turkey, and western Iraq. The decadal changes of mCEI for these regions are in the range of 3–5% decade⁻¹. The city-scale analysis based on urbanized locations reveals that Fes (Morocco), Izmir (Turkey), Marseille and Aix-en-Provence (France), and Tel Aviv (Israel) have the highest increasing trend of mCEI, which is greater than 3.5% decade⁻¹. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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24 pages, 61654 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature and Precipitation Indices Over CORDEX-MENA Domain

by Tugba Ozturk, F. Sibel Saygili-Araci and M. Levent Kurnaz

Atmosphere 2021, 12(5), 622; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12050622 - 12 May 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 3810

Abstract

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed [...] Read more.

In this study, projected changes in climate extreme indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were investigated over Middle East and North Africa. Changes in the daily maximum and minimum temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices were analyzed for the end of the 21st century compared to the reference period 1971–2000 using regional climate model simulations. Regional climate model, RegCM4.4 was used to downscale two different global climate model outputs to 50 km resolution under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Results generally indicate an intensification of temperature- and precipitation- based extreme indices with increasing radiative forcing. In particular, an increase in annual minimum of daily minimum temperatures is more pronounced over the northern part of Mediterranean Basin and tropics. High increase in warm nights and warm spell duration all over the region with a pronounced increase in tropics are projected for the period of 2071–2100 together with decrease or no change in cold extremes. According to the results, a decrease in total wet-day precipitation and increase in dry spells are expected for the end of the century. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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13 pages, 6100 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Effects of the Tibetan High and the North Pacific High on the Occurrence of Hot or Cool Summers in Japan

by Makoto Inoue, Atsushi Ugajin, Osamu Kiguchi, Yousuke Yamashita, Masashi Komine and Shuji Yamakawa

Atmosphere 2021, 12(3), 307; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030307 - 26 Feb 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3005

Abstract

In this study, we investigated the effects of the Tibetan High near the tropopause and the North Pacific High in the troposphere on occurrences of hot or cool summers in Japan. We first classified Japan into six regions and identified hot and cool [...] Read more.

In this study, we investigated the effects of the Tibetan High near the tropopause and the North Pacific High in the troposphere on occurrences of hot or cool summers in Japan. We first classified Japan into six regions and identified hot and cool summer years in these regions from a 38-year sample (1980–2017) based on the monthly air temperature. To investigate the features of circulation fields over Asia during hot and cool summers in Japan, we calculated the composite differences (hot summer years minus cool summer years) of several variables such as geopotential height, which indicated significant high-pressure anomalies in the troposphere and lower stratosphere. These results suggest that both the North Pacific and the Tibetan Highs tend to extend to Japan during hot summer years, while cool summers seem to be associated with the weakening of these highs. We found that extension of the Tibetan High to the Japanese mainland can lead to hot summers in Northern, Eastern, and Western Japan. On the other hand, hot summers in the Southwestern Islands may be due to extension of the Tibetan High to the south. Similarly, the latitudinal direction of extension of the North Pacific High is profoundly connected with the summer climate in respective regions. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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13 pages, 6612 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Performance Assessment of GSMaP and GPM IMERG Products during Typhoon Mangkhut

by Xiaoyu Li, Sheng Chen, Zhenqing Liang, Chaoying Huang, Zhi Li and Baoqing Hu

Atmosphere 2021, 12(2), 134; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12020134 - 21 Jan 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2140

Abstract

This paper evaluated the latest version 6.0 Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and version 6.0 Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) products during 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut in China. The reference data is the rain gauge datasets from Gauge-Calibrated Climate Prediction [...] Read more.

This paper evaluated the latest version 6.0 Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) and version 6.0 Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) products during 2018 Typhoon Mangkhut in China. The reference data is the rain gauge datasets from Gauge-Calibrated Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) Morphing Technique (CMORPHGC). The products for comparison include the GSMaP near-real-time, Microwave-IR merged, and gauge-calibrated (GSMaP_NRT, GSMaP_MVK, and GSMaP_Gauge) and the IMERG Early, Final, and Final gauge-calibrated (IMERG_ERUncal, IMERG_FRUncal, and IMERG_FRCal) products. The results show that (1) both GSMaP_Gauge and IMERG_FRCal considerably reduced the bias of their satellite-only products. GSMaP_Gauge outperforms IMERG_FRCal with higher Correlation Coefficient (CC) values of about 0.85, 0.78, and 0.50; lower Fractional Standard Error (FSE) values of about 18.00, 18.85, and 29.30; and Root-Mean-Squared Error (RMSE) values of about 12.12, 33.35, and 32.99 mm in the rainfall centers over mainland China, southern China, and eastern China, respectively. (2) GSMaP products perform better than IMERG products, with higher Probability of Detection (POD) and Critical Success Index (CSI) and lower False Alarm Ratio (FAR) in detecting rainfall occurrence, especially for high rainfall rates. (3) For area-mean rainfall, IMERG performs worse than GSMaP in the rainfall centers over mainland China and southern China but shows better performance in the rainfall center over eastern China. GSMaP_Gauge and IMERG_FRCal perform well in the three regions with a high CC (0.79 vs. 0.94, 0.81 vs. 0.96, and 0.95 vs. 0.97) and a low RMSE (0.04 vs. 0.06, 0.40 vs. 0.59, and 0.19 vs. 0.34 mm). These useful findings will help algorithm developers and data users to better understand the performance of GSMaP and IMERG products during typhoon precipitation events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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17 pages, 9560 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Anomalous Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Extremely Persistent Dense Fog Events over Eastern China in the Late Autumn of 2018

by Shengjie Chen, Duanyang Liu, Zhiming Kang, Yan Shi and Mei Liu

Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 111; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010111 - 14 Jan 2021

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 1716

Abstract

Under a declining trend of fog days in China, the duration of fog events since the 1990s reached a significant peak in the late autumn of 2018 over Eastern China. The average anomalous fog days were 4.74 d in November 2018 over Jiangsu [...] Read more.

Under a declining trend of fog days in China, the duration of fog events since the 1990s reached a significant peak in the late autumn of 2018 over Eastern China. The average anomalous fog days were 4.74 d in November 2018 over Jiangsu Province in Eastern China, with a 1.73 standard deviation departure from climatology. Those fogs can thus be identified as a significantly abnormal climatic event with long duration, strong intensity, and extensive coverage. Based on the daily evolutions and correlations of atmospheric parameters, the dense fogs are revealed to be well configured by favorable metrological conditions such as weak dynamic progress, strong inversion in the lower troposphere and saturated air near the surface. If not disturbed, the intensification or duration of these conditions will further promote and maintain the development of fogs. The anomalous atmospheric background associated with those favorable meteorological conditions is revealed by composing the standardized anomalies of circulation fields during the fog days. Over the fog areas, vortex activities or cold air invasion is effectively hampered and the atmosphere inclines to be stable, due to the anomalous circulation pattern composed of the broadened jet stream, weakened jet core over Eastern China, undermined East Asian trough, declined East Asian winter monsoon, and enhanced anomalous southerly flows that transport abnormal warm and wet air to Eastern China. The vapor supplement is intensified by both sustained anomalous northward wind at the lower troposphere and anomalous westward wind in the near-surface. Overall, the numbers of standardized anomalies of 1000–200-hPa height, temperature, wind, and moisture fields during these fog days all significantly depart from climatology for that locale and time of the season, further demonstrating that the persistent dense fogs over Eastern China in the late autumn of 2018 is an unusual weather event with extreme synoptic-scale departures from normal. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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26 pages, 5540 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Future Projections and Uncertainty Assessment of Precipitation Extremes in the Korean Peninsula from the CMIP6 Ensemble with a Statistical Framework

by Yonggwan Shin, Yire Shin, Juyoung Hong, Maeng-Ki Kim, Young-Hwa Byun, Kyung-On Boo, Il-Ung Chung, Doo-Sun R. Park and Jeong-Soo Park

Atmosphere 2021, 12(1), 97; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12010097 - 11 Jan 2021

Cited by 10 | Viewed by 2716

Abstract

Scientists occasionally predict projected changes in extreme climate using multi-model ensemble methods that combine predictions from individual simulation models. To predict future changes in precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula, we examined the observed data and 21 models of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison [...] Read more.

Scientists occasionally predict projected changes in extreme climate using multi-model ensemble methods that combine predictions from individual simulation models. To predict future changes in precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula, we examined the observed data and 21 models of the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over East Asia. We applied generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to a series of annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data. Multivariate bias-corrected simulation data under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios—namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5—were used. We employed a model weighting method that accounts for both performance and independence (PI-weighting). In calculating the PI-weights, two shape parameters should be determined, but usually, a perfect model test method requires a considerable amount of computing time. To address this problem, we suggest simple ways for selecting two shape parameters based on the chi-square statistic and entropy. Variance decomposition was applied to quantify the uncertainty of projecting the future AMP1. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1973–2010), were estimated for three overlapping periods in the future, namely, period 1 (2021–2050), period 2 (2046–2075), and period 3 (2071–2100). From these analyses, we estimated that the relative increases in the observations for the spatial median 20-year return level will be approximately 18.4% in the SSP2-4.5, 25.9% in the SSP3-7.0, and 41.7% in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We predict that severe rainfall will be more prominent in the southern and central parts of the Korean peninsula. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Extreme Weather Events and Geo-Climatic Hazards Under a Changing Climate)

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