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Relationships between Climatic Variables and Earthquake Events, Finding a Sustainable Way in the Earthquake Prediction

A special issue of Sustainability (ISSN 2071-1050). This special issue belongs to the section "Hazards and Sustainability".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (21 September 2023) | Viewed by 7531

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Department of Geography and Natural Hazards, Research Institute of Shakhes Pajouh, 81589-49191 Isfahan, Iran
Interests: climatology; atmospheric science; natural hazards; earthquake prediction; geomorphology; landslides; erosion and sedimentation; remote sensing; urban planning; land suitability evaluation; geographical information system; environmental impact assessment; impact craters; geo-statistical analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Recent theoretical and experimental studies on earthquake prediction have been carried out using different methods in different fields. Concerning climate-associated variables of upcoming earthquakes, there are several lists of precursors, including air ionization, radon migration, latent heat release, changes in atmospheric electricity, thermodynamic processes leading to outgoing long-wave radiation, changes in surface air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, earthquake cloud formation, coupling with precipitation anomalies, ionosphere and magnetosphere effects, radio wave propagation and the generation of electromagnetic emissions (Daneshvar et al. 2015). However, a broader evaluation of climatic anomalies before major seismic events has revealed that pre-seismic signals are widely distributed in the spatial and temporal domains (e.g., Daneshvar and Freund (2017), Pulinets et al. (2018), Ouzounov et al. (2018), Shah and Jin (2018), Daneshvar and Freund (2019), Tariq et al. (2019), Shah et al. (2020), Şentürk et al. (2020) and Daneshvar and Freund (2021)). For instance, during thunderstorm activity, sudden and anomalous heavy precipitation rates have been commonly observed, having been investigated as an indicator of impending earthquake activity (e.g., Daneshvar et al. (2014a), Daneshvar et al. (2014b), Daneshvar et al. (2015) and Daneshvar et al. (2021)). The best reasons for the detection of the physical mechanism of the mentioned relationships between climatic variables and earthquake events could refer to the novel theory of the stress activation of peroxy defects in rocks and the appearance of positive hole charge carriers at the ground-to-air interface (Freund and Freund (2015) and Scoville et al. (2015)), describing the coupling model between the lithosphere and atmosphere/ionosphere layers in seismically active regions (Freund et al. (2009), Freund (2013) and Freund et al. (2021)).

In this Special Issue, we anticipate the proposal of new research findings in response to the principal calls in the recent literature, and the interpretation of the potential basis and datasets through the global earthquake forecasting system (GEFS) (Mignan et al. (2021) and Daneshvar and Freund (2021)). On this basis, the below research topics can be included:

  • New statistical, spatial and temporal methods in the research for climatic anomalies before earthquakes;
  • Classifying the climatic variables for earthquake perdition;
  • Ground-based data analysis for the earthquake forecasting system;
  • Earthquake precursory analysis using satellite imageries;
  • Exploration of sustainable ways to use the earthquake forecasting system in environmental management and planning;
  • Correlation analysis between climate change, environmental degradation and earthquake events;
  • Development of new qualitative and quantitative facts regarding the mechanism and modeling of the seismic–climatic coupling.

The aforementioned topics are some examples, and other emerging multidisciplinary efforts are also appreciated. Following the above context, we invite you to submit original research, technical reports, letters or review papers.

Dr. Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • earthquake prediction
  • climatic variables
  • precursory analysis
  • earthquake forecasting system
  • lithosphere–atmosphere/ionosphere coupling model

Published Papers (3 papers)

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Research

30 pages, 9873 KiB  
Article
Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Climatic Precursors before Major Earthquakes in Iran (2011–2021)
by Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar, Friedemann T. Freund and Majid Ebrahimi
Sustainability 2023, 15(14), 11023; https://doi.org/10.3390/su151411023 - 14 Jul 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 953
Abstract
The present study provides a systematic assessment of the relationships between climatic variables and major earthquakes (M > 6) in Iran (2011–2021). These variables include total cloud cover (tcc), low cloud cover (lcc), total precipitation (tp), surface latent heat flux (slhf), and total [...] Read more.
The present study provides a systematic assessment of the relationships between climatic variables and major earthquakes (M > 6) in Iran (2011–2021). These variables include total cloud cover (tcc), low cloud cover (lcc), total precipitation (tp), surface latent heat flux (slhf), and total column rainwater (tcrw). Based on a wider set of variables provided by a multidimensional global dataset (ERA5), the combination of a cross-correlation function (CCF) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) was used to develop the spatial and temporal analytic relations. Covering maximal values from 0.42 to 0.92, the CCF plots revealed that an increase in climatic parameters could provide valuable information about impending earthquake activity within 8 to 20 days. The mean values of tcc, lcc, tp, slhf, and tcrw were found to increase by 95%, 60%, 80.0 mm, 105 W/m2, and 95 kg−3/m2, respectively. In fact, with the mean AUC (area under the curve) indices ranging from 0.677 (tcc) to 0.810 (tcrw) prior to major earthquakes, the ROC plots allowed for discrimination between seismic and climatic variables ranging from “acceptable” to “excellent”. The changes in the climatic variables under study were due to anomalous air ionization and water condensation in the atmosphere, which can be regarded as short-term precursors to major earthquakes. Full article
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17 pages, 5705 KiB  
Article
Atmospheric Anomalies Associated with the 2021 Mw 7.2 Haiti Earthquake Using Machine Learning from Multiple Satellites
by Muhammad Muzamil Khan, Bushra Ghaffar, Rasim Shahzad, M. Riaz Khan, Munawar Shah, Ali H. Amin, Sayed M. Eldin, Najam Abbas Naqvi and Rashid Ali
Sustainability 2022, 14(22), 14782; https://doi.org/10.3390/su142214782 - 9 Nov 2022
Cited by 18 | Viewed by 2109
Abstract
The remote sensing-based Earth satellites has become a beneficial instrument for the monitoring of natural hazards. This study includes a multi-sensors analysis to estimate the spatial-temporal variations of atmospheric parameters as precursory signals to the Mw 7.2 Haiti Earthquake (EQ). We studied [...] Read more.
The remote sensing-based Earth satellites has become a beneficial instrument for the monitoring of natural hazards. This study includes a multi-sensors analysis to estimate the spatial-temporal variations of atmospheric parameters as precursory signals to the Mw 7.2 Haiti Earthquake (EQ). We studied EQ anomalies in Land Surface Temperature (LST), Air Temperature (AT), Relative Humidity (RH), Air Pressure (AP), and Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR). Moreover, we found EQ-associated atmospheric abnormalities in a time window of 3–10 days before the main shock by different methods (e.g., statistical, wavelet transformation, deep learning, and Machine Learning (ML)-based neural networks). We observed a sharp decrease in the RH and AP before the main shock, followed by an immense enhancement in AT. Similarly, we also observed enhancement in LST and OLR around the seismic preparation region within 3–10 days before the EQ, which validates the precursory behavior of all the atmospheric parameters. These multiple-parameter irregularities can contribute with the physical understanding of Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) in the future in order to forecast EQs. Full article
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19 pages, 3528 KiB  
Article
Atmospheric Storm Anomalies Prior to Major Earthquakes in the Japan Region
by Friedemann T. Freund, Mohammad Reza Mansouri Daneshvar and Majid Ebrahimi
Sustainability 2022, 14(16), 10241; https://doi.org/10.3390/su141610241 - 17 Aug 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 3533
Abstract
Connections between atmospheric perturbations, e.g., thunderstorm activity, and major earthquakes are investigated along with the lithosphere–atmosphere coupling mechanism, concerning the earthquake prediction models. The present research attempts to recognize a possible link between atmospheric processes (rainfall, storms) and subsequent earthquakes (M > 6) [...] Read more.
Connections between atmospheric perturbations, e.g., thunderstorm activity, and major earthquakes are investigated along with the lithosphere–atmosphere coupling mechanism, concerning the earthquake prediction models. The present research attempts to recognize a possible link between atmospheric processes (rainfall, storms) and subsequent earthquakes (M > 6) across a wide area around Japan. Earthquake data and upper-atmosphere sounding data related to the Severe Weather Threat (SWEAT) index and Skew-T plots were obtained from two Japanese radiosonde stations, Hachijojima and Kagoshima. Using the cross-correlation function (CCF) method, it is shown that SWEAT conditions existed within 30 days before six major earthquakes in 2017 in the Japan region. The Seismo-Climatic Index (SCI) reached a mean of 2.00, 7–8, and 13–14 days before these earthquakes, indicating thunderstorms and extreme weather conditions, further supported by Skew-T plots. Low-pressure systems, deviating from the mean by as much as −50 to −250 m, and hot spots of increased precipitation ranging from ~80 to ~140 mm rainfall within 24 h were observed to be geographically associated with these earthquake events. The anomalous atmospheric conditions can be understood based on increased air ionization at the ground-to-air interface due to the influx of positive-hole charge carriers that are stress-activated deep in the lithosphere and spread through the rock column. When the positive electronic charge carriers are accumulated at the lithosphere, preferentially at topographic highs, some steep electric fields are observed capable of field-ionizing the air. The airborne ions then act as condensation nuclei for atmospheric moisture, thermal updrafts, cloud formation, and a statistically significant precipitation increase. This research was conducted based on some experimental indicators in a very important seismological region to examine the successfulness of the proposed mechanism and the given indicators as the possible proxies of pre-earthquake precursors. Hence, the main practical implication of the research can highlight a sustainable way for improving the managerial tools in the field of earthquake prediction. Full article
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