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Mathematics
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Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development
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Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development

A special issue of Mathematics (ISSN 2227-7390). This special issue belongs to the section "Financial Mathematics".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 May 2024 | Viewed by 6641

Special Issue Editors

Dr. Julia V. Dubrovskaya

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Guest Editor
Department of Economics and Finance, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, 29 Komsomolsky Prospekt, 614000 Perm, Russia
Interests: regional development; economic modeling; spatial econometrics analysis; regional policy; spatial inequalities
Dr. Elena Kozonogova

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Economics and Finance, Perm National Research Polytechnic University, 29 Komsomolsky Prospekt, 614000 Perm, Russia
Interests: spatial inequalities; regional development; economic and mathematical modeling; spatial econometrics; factors of economic growth

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

A distinctive purpose of research in the field of economic modelling and regional development is to identify factors affecting territorial systems and predict the consequences of their changes. Therefore, the necessity of applying mathematical methods in the study of functioning, efficiency assessment and forecasting of economic growth and regional development is obvious.

The aim of this Special Issue is to facilitate exchange of scientific results among scholars by publishing original research that comprises modelling of economics and regional development, and implementation of mathematical and instrumental methods in areas of interest including but not limited to the following: Macroregional, Transregional, Regional and Urban Policy; Methods in Regional Science; Economic Geography; Trade and Value Chains; Regional Innovation Systems.

Dr. Julia V. Dubrovskaya
Dr. Elena Kozonogova
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Mathematics is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • economic modeling and forecasting
  • economic complexity
  • transport and accessibility
  • trade, global and local value chains
  • demographic change and labour markets
  • spatial inequalities
  • evolutionary economic geography
  • regional cooperation
  • regional-urban economics
  • regional competitiveness

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

25 pages, 8813 KiB  
Article
Spatial Network Analysis of Coupling Coordination between Digital Financial Inclusion and Common Prosperity in the Yangtze River Delta Urban Agglomeration
by Fanlong Zeng and Huaping Sun
Mathematics 2024, 12(9), 1285; https://doi.org/10.3390/math12091285 - 24 Apr 2024
Viewed by 257
Abstract
Digital financial inclusion and common prosperity are pivotal elements in promoting the sustainable socioeconomic development of China. This study introduces a novel Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method to evaluate the Common Prosperity Index (CPI). Using this index, alongside the Digital Financial Inclusion Index [...] Read more.
Digital financial inclusion and common prosperity are pivotal elements in promoting the sustainable socioeconomic development of China. This study introduces a novel Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) method to evaluate the Common Prosperity Index (CPI). Using this index, alongside the Digital Financial Inclusion Index (DFII) released by Peking University, it examines the evolution of the coupling coordination relationship between digital financial inclusion and common prosperity within the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration from 2011 to 2021. By integrating gravity models and social network analysis, in this paper, we thoroughly investigate the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the spatial network of this coupling coordination relationship. The results indicate that both the DFII and CPI generally exhibit an upward trend, but the decline in the coupling degree reflects a weakened interaction strength between them. Specifically, Anhui significantly lags behind Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai in the development of digital financial inclusion and common prosperity, indicating regional development imbalances. Furthermore, the strength of spatial connections in city coupling coordination has significantly increased, with Nanjing’s siphon effect on cities in Anhui becoming markedly stronger, and the number of core cities in the network increasing, which demonstrates a geographical proximity feature in network development. Additionally, the overall network characteristics are transitioning towards higher density and “small-world” properties, suggesting a trend toward network stabilization. The disparity in centrality among cities has decreased, with an overall enhancement in centrality, where the spatial spillover effects from core areas such as Hangzhou-Ningbo, Nanjing-Changzhou, and Shanghai-Suzhou-Wuxi significantly promote the development of peripheral cities. Based on these findings, this paper proposes policy recommendations for the sustainable development of digital financial inclusion and common prosperity in the YRD region. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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22 pages, 2413 KiB  
Article
Peculiarity of Behavior of Economic Agents under Cognitive Constraints in a Semi-Open New Keynesian Model
by Leonid Serkov and Sergey Krasnykh
Mathematics 2024, 12(1), 95; https://doi.org/10.3390/math12010095 - 27 Dec 2023
Viewed by 630
Abstract
The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. [...] Read more.
The aim of the paper is to analyze changes and peculiarities of behavior of economic agents with bounded rationality in the New Keynesian model, in which imported equipment and technology are one of the factors of production, and households consume only domestic products. The formation of output gap and inflation expectations by agents is based on stationary values of these variables and on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these rules change endogenously. Histograms of the frequency distribution of the degree of buoyancy and the impulse responses of monetary policy shocks and technology shocks to the variables under study show that a less open economy tends to go through an economic cycle with a smaller amplitude than a more rigid economy. Analyses of the trade-offs between the volatility of inflation and the output gap at different parameter values in the Taylor rule show their non-linear nature (in contrast to standard models with rational expectations). An important result obtained in this analysis is that the rational expectations hypothesis is more consistent with a closed economy than with an open one. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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21 pages, 2378 KiB  
Article
Econometric Modeling of Creative Industries Concentration Process in the Siberian and the Urals Single-Industry Towns
by Irina S. Antonova and Evgeny A. Pchelintsev
Mathematics 2023, 11(17), 3704; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11173704 - 28 Aug 2023
Viewed by 760
Abstract
Creative industry is considered the driver of modern urban development. It raises the new wave of issues of re-industrialization policy in single-industry towns. Nevertheless, the algorithms of current mathematical modeling in regional economies are not complex enough, leaving out spatial errors and variety [...] Read more.
Creative industry is considered the driver of modern urban development. It raises the new wave of issues of re-industrialization policy in single-industry towns. Nevertheless, the algorithms of current mathematical modeling in regional economies are not complex enough, leaving out spatial errors and variety in models used. We present eight steps of econometric analysis, considering local-level data. For the research, a balanced data panel was formed for 38 single-industry towns in Siberia and the Urals in Russia, for the period of 2013–2017. For mathematical modeling of the process of concentration of creative industries in single-industry towns, first, we present the specific indices of concentration, variety, and spatial disparities. Then, we test the full list of possible models for the variables. Then, we evaluate the regional offset. We describe the sufficient F-test, Hausman test and Breusch–Pagan Lagrange multiplier tests, choosing the most appropriate model. Finally, we evaluate the spatial autorepression of residuals. This algorithm allows us prove the data period and identify the tendency of spatial heterogeneity growth. We assume it to be the growing spillover effect in creative industries. At the same time, despite the positive trend of decreasing concentration of creative industries in single-industry towns, mono-industry continues to have a meaningful impact on their development, which forms the basis of path dependence. In this regard, the main actor of development in towns is city-forming enterprise, through the tools of corporate social responsibility. In view of the latter, it is proposed to develop tools for corporate creative responsibility in single-industry organizations within cities and regions. Finally, the general concern about the growth of spatial differentiation at the level of cities and regions is not yet significant. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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31 pages, 2427 KiB  
Article
Modeling the Spatial Effects of Digital Data Economy on Regional Economic Growth: SAR, SEM and SAC Models
by Julia Varlamova and Ekaterina Kadochnikova
Mathematics 2023, 11(16), 3516; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11163516 - 14 Aug 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1025
Abstract
The potential for the development of digital data and their infrastructure creates new opportunities for economic growth. The purpose of this study was to develop an approach to identify a set of indicators to quantify the data economy and model its impact on [...] Read more.
The potential for the development of digital data and their infrastructure creates new opportunities for economic growth. The purpose of this study was to develop an approach to identify a set of indicators to quantify the data economy and model its impact on economic growth. The cumulative index and Gini coefficient indicated differentiation and disparity in the digital data infrastructure of 85 regions for 2016–2021. In the presence of a positive spatial correlation, digital development does not indicate clear spatial clubs. Selected according to the calculation of Lagrange multipliers and likelihood ratios, panel econometric models with spatial lags, using SAR, SEM and SAC, showed a short-term negative effect and a long-term positive effect of the digital data economy on economic growth, confirmed by the calculation of marginal effects. During the pandemic, the data economy had a positive impact on regional economic growth. The positive spatial effect of interactions between regions detected by the models in the framework of economic growth indicates the synergistic nature of digitalization. The main conclusions of this study provide evidence-based support for the digital transformation of regions and can help create information infrastructure and accumulate human capital to eliminate disparities in the digital development of regions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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17 pages, 2480 KiB  
Article
The Specific Behavior of Economic Agents with Heterogeneous Expectations in the New Keynesian Model with Rigid Prices and Wages
by Leonid Serkov and Sergey Krasnykh
Mathematics 2023, 11(4), 796; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11040796 - 04 Feb 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1175
Abstract
The purpose and scientific novelty of this work is to analyze the changes and features of economic agents’ behavior when incorporating wage rigidity into a new Keynesian model under cognitive constraints of agents. The working hypothesis is the assumption that the forecasting of [...] Read more.
The purpose and scientific novelty of this work is to analyze the changes and features of economic agents’ behavior when incorporating wage rigidity into a new Keynesian model under cognitive constraints of agents. The working hypothesis is the assumption that the forecasting of the output gap, inflation of prices and wages occurs with the help of fundamentalist and extrapolation rules. The first rule is based on forecasting the variables under study on the basis of their stationary values. The second rule is based on extrapolation of the latest available data on inflation and the output gap. The weight shares of agents applying these heuristic rules change endogenously, which is the source of endogenous waves of optimism and pessimism. An analysis of the impulse responses of interest rate and technology shocks suggests that a more flexible economy (an economy with flexible wages and rigid prices) is less prone to a spike in the economic cycle caused by waves of optimism and pessimism than a more rigid economy (an economy with rigid prices and wages) due to the inability of agents to respond immediately to exogenous disturbances in rigid conditions. Thus, these shocks cause wave effects in the economy, i.e., cyclical movements, i.e., a rigid economy will be more prone to booms and busts caused by alternating optimism and pessimism than a flexible economy. The model with an imperfect labor market is characterized by an increased concentration of vital forces at the values of 0 and 1, as well as in the mid-distribution compared to the base model. This feature provides a key explanation for the abnormal dynamics of the evolution of variables in this model. It is concluded that the difference between the degree of optimism and pessimism in the base model and in the model with rigid wages and prices is the full trust of agents in the central bank in targeting wage inflation in the absence of the stabilization of this inflation by the bank. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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22 pages, 1149 KiB  
Article
Modeling Spatial Development of the Economy Based on the Concept of Economic Complexity (on the Example of Aerospace Industry)
by Julia Dubrovskaya, Elena Kozonogova and Maria Rusinova
Mathematics 2023, 11(3), 773; https://doi.org/10.3390/math11030773 - 03 Feb 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1369
Abstract
Ensuring the rational use of limited space is a key function of government bodies at any level of power. Spatial development of the economy is modeled in the presented paper based on the concept of economic complexity. In addition to the innovative application [...] Read more.
Ensuring the rational use of limited space is a key function of government bodies at any level of power. Spatial development of the economy is modeled in the presented paper based on the concept of economic complexity. In addition to the innovative application of the economic complexity concept to the analysis of territorial systems in the form of macroregions, this study used an improved methodology for calculating the index of economic complexity in relation to the processes of interregional cooperation. The methodology of constructing a model of the spatial organization of the economy included determining the composition of the system of equations and their structure, formulating the prerequisites and limitations of the model, and determining an objective function of the model. The minimum level of heterogeneity of spatial development and the maximum of macroregion economic complexity indexes were chosen as the criterion of optimality. As a result of testing the model on real statistical data of the regions in Russia, a grid of macroregions was formed, providing an increase in the diversification of the types of production activities within the macroregion and a decrease in the differentiation of the development of the territories included in it. A computer program was developed during the course of the study that allows simulation experiments to be carried out in order to find the optimal variant of spatial organization of the economy. In addition, in the example of the aerospace industry, the management algorithm of the regional sectoral branching process was tested. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mathematical Modelling of Economics and Regional Development)
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