Scenarios for the Further Development and Impact of Blockchain Technologies

A special issue of Future Internet (ISSN 1999-5903). This special issue belongs to the section "Internet of Things".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 May 2022) | Viewed by 6888

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Guest Editor
Department of International Management, Modul University Vienna, 1190 Vienna, Austria
Interests: blockchain; distributed ledger technology; digital transformation; tokenization; token economy
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Blockchain technology is predicted to disrupt industries, economies, and societies. The properties of distributed ledgers allow the creation of immutable data structures that facilitate shared access in real time and enable a plethora of innovative applications. However, blockchain is not a uniform technology, but rather a bundle of evolving components whose implications are notoriously hard to predict. At present, it is not clear how current trends will evolve, with technical evolution, legislation, and public policy being three contingency factors that make ongoing disruptive transformations particularly hard to predict. In light of blockchain’s potential disruptive impact, it is surprising that scenario analysis has hitherto been largely ignored in academic research. In a recent publication in Future Internet, I therefore outline the potentials of this technique to produce blockchain research that is both academically rigorous and relevant to the industry (Treiblmaier 2021).

In this call for papers, I look for academic research that applies scenario analysis to thoroughly investigate the impact of blockchain technologies and the relevance of potential contingency factors. Furthermore, I encourage the investigation of how the respective components of blockchain technologies as well as the surrounding business and legal frameworks might evolve and what the consequences would be. The focus of this Special Issue is the exploration of diverse scenarios that might arise from blockchain technologies, and not on the identification of the most likely development. Furthermore, I am especially looking for research that deals with “what if” questions and outlines disruptive developments.

From a methodological perspective, both quantitative and qualitative approaches are welcome. The research design has to be rigorous and can include the application of various methods simultaneously (i.e., mixed method approach). Scenario analysis does not hinge on a specific method, but allows the combination of different approaches. I therefore encourage its application to generate blockchain papers that are creative, inspiring, and thought-provoking.

Potential topics include, but are not limited to:

  • Future developments of core blockchain technologies
  • Use cases that can be created with blockchain technologies and how their successful deployment depends on external factors
  • Extreme scenarios (both positive and negative) that may arise from the use of blockchain technologies
  • Potential impact of blockchain on business/economy/society
  • Identification of contingency factors the enable or hinder the acceptance and adoption of blockchain technologies

Prof. Dr. Horst Treiblmaier
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • blockchain
  • distributed ledger technology
  • scenario analysis
  • scenario planning
  • prediction
  • research design
  • contingency theory
  • blockchain transformation model

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 1359 KiB  
Article
What Is Coming across the Horizon and How Can We Handle It? Bitcoin Scenarios as a Starting Point for Rigorous and Relevant Research
by Horst Treiblmaier
Future Internet 2022, 14(6), 162; https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14060162 - 26 May 2022
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 2775
Abstract
The disruptive impact of blockchain technologies can be felt across numerous industries as it threatens to disrupt existing business models and economic structures. To better understand this impact, academic researchers regularly apply well-established theories and methods. The vast majority of these approaches are [...] Read more.
The disruptive impact of blockchain technologies can be felt across numerous industries as it threatens to disrupt existing business models and economic structures. To better understand this impact, academic researchers regularly apply well-established theories and methods. The vast majority of these approaches are based on multivariate methods that rely on average behavior and treat extreme cases as outliers. However, as recent history has shown, current developments in blockchain and cryptocurrencies are frequently characterized by aberrant behavior and unexpected events that shape individuals’ perceptions, market behavior, and public policymaking. In this paper, I apply various scenario tools to identify such extreme scenarios and illustrate their underlying structure as bundles of interdependent factors. Using the case of Bitcoin, I illustrate that the identification of extreme positive and negative scenarios is complex and heavily depends on underlying economic assumptions. I present three scenarios in which Bitcoin is characterized as a financial savior, as a severe threat to economic stability, or as a substitute to overcome several shortcomings of the existing financial system. The research questions that can be derived from these scenarios bridge behavioral and design science research and provide a fertile ground for impactful future research. Full article
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24 pages, 412 KiB  
Article
Bitcoin as a Safe Haven during COVID-19 Disease
by Luisanna Cocco, Roberto Tonelli and Michele Marchesi
Future Internet 2022, 14(4), 98; https://doi.org/10.3390/fi14040098 - 22 Mar 2022
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 3190
Abstract
In this paper, we investigate the role of Bitcoin as a safe haven against the stock market losses during the spread of COVID-19. The performed analysis was based on a regression model with dummy variables defined around some crucial dates of the pandemic [...] Read more.
In this paper, we investigate the role of Bitcoin as a safe haven against the stock market losses during the spread of COVID-19. The performed analysis was based on a regression model with dummy variables defined around some crucial dates of the pandemic and on the dynamic conditional correlations. To try to model the real dynamics of the markets, we studied the safe-haven properties of Bitcoin against thirteen of the major stock market indexes losses using daily data spanning from 1 July 2019 until 20 February 2021. A similar analysis was also performed for Ether. Results show that this pandemic impacts on the Bitcoin status as safe haven, but we are still far from being able to define Bitcoin as a safe haven. Full article
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