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Forecasting, Volume 6, Issue 2 (June 2024) – 8 articles

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26 pages, 21593 KiB  
Article
Forecasting Daily Activity Plans of a Synthetic Population in an Upcoming District
by Rachid Belaroussi and Younes Delhoum
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 378-403; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020021 - 22 May 2024
Viewed by 103
Abstract
The modeling and simulation of societies requires identifying the spatio-temporal patterns of people’s activities. In urban areas, it is key to effective urban planning; it can be used in real estate projects to predict their future impacts on behavior in surrounding accessible areas. [...] Read more.
The modeling and simulation of societies requires identifying the spatio-temporal patterns of people’s activities. In urban areas, it is key to effective urban planning; it can be used in real estate projects to predict their future impacts on behavior in surrounding accessible areas. The work presented here aims at developing a method for making it possible to model the potential visits of the various equipment and public spaces of a district under construction by mobilizing data from census at the regional level and the layout of shops and activities as defined by the real estate project. This agent-based model takes into account the flow of external visitors, estimated realistically based on the pre-occupancy movements in the surrounding cities. To perform this evaluation, we implemented a multi-agent-based simulation model (MATSim) at the regional scale and at the scale of the future district. In its design, the district is physically open to the outside and will offer services that will be of interest to other residents or users of the surrounding area. To know the effect of this opening on a potential transit of visitors in the district, as well as the places of interest for the inhabitants, it is necessary to predict the flows of micro-trips within the district once it is built. We propose an attraction model to estimate the daily activities and trips of the future residents based on the attractiveness of the facilities and the urbanistic potential of the blocks. This transportation model is articulated in conjunction with the regional model in order to establish the flow of outgoing and incoming visitors. The impacts of the future district on the mobility of its surrounding area is deduced by implementing a simulation in the projection situation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers of Forecasting 2024)
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21 pages, 3642 KiB  
Article
Utilizing the Honeybees Mating-Inspired Firefly Algorithm to Extract Parameters of the Wind Speed Weibull Model
by Abubaker Younis, Fatima Belabbes, Petru Adrian Cotfas and Daniel Tudor Cotfas
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 357-377; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020020 - 22 May 2024
Viewed by 104
Abstract
This study introduces a novel adjustment to the firefly algorithm (FA) through the integration of rare instances of cannibalism among fireflies, culminating in the development of the honeybee mating-based firefly algorithm (HBMFA). The IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC) 2005 benchmark functions served [...] Read more.
This study introduces a novel adjustment to the firefly algorithm (FA) through the integration of rare instances of cannibalism among fireflies, culminating in the development of the honeybee mating-based firefly algorithm (HBMFA). The IEEE Congress on Evolutionary Computation (CEC) 2005 benchmark functions served as a rigorous testing ground to evaluate the efficacy of the new algorithm in diverse optimization scenarios. Moreover, thorough statistical analyses, including two-sample t-tests and fitness function evaluation analysis, the algorithm’s optimization capabilities were robustly validated. Additionally, the coefficient of determination, used as an objective function, was utilized with real-world wind speed data from the SR-25 station in Brazil to assess the algorithm’s applicability in modeling wind speed parameters. Notably, HBMFA achieved superior solution accuracy, with enhancements averaging 0.025% compared to conventional FA, despite a moderate increase in execution time of approximately 18.74%. Furthermore, this dominance persisted when the algorithm’s performance was compared with other common optimization algorithms. However, some limitations exist, including the longer execution time of HBMFA, raising concerns about its practical applicability in scenarios where computational efficiency is critical. Additionally, while the new algorithm demonstrates improvements in fitness values, establishing the statistical significance of these differences compared to FA is not consistently achieved, which warrants further investigation. Nevertheless, the added value of this work lies in advancing the state-of-the-art in optimization algorithms, particularly in enhancing solution accuracy for critical engineering applications. Full article
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14 pages, 925 KiB  
Article
Forecasting and Anomaly Detection in BEWS: Comparative Study of Theta, Croston, and Prophet Algorithms
by Aleksandr N. Grekov, Elena V. Vyshkvarkova and Aleksandr S. Mavrin
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 343-356; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020019 - 21 May 2024
Viewed by 152
Abstract
Evaluation of water quality and accurate prediction of water pollution indicators are key components in water resource management and water pollution control. The use of biological early warning systems (BEWS), in which living organisms are used as biosensors, allows for a comprehensive assessment [...] Read more.
Evaluation of water quality and accurate prediction of water pollution indicators are key components in water resource management and water pollution control. The use of biological early warning systems (BEWS), in which living organisms are used as biosensors, allows for a comprehensive assessment of the aquatic environment state and a timely response in the event of an emergency. In this paper, we examine three machine learning algorithms (Theta, Croston and Prophet) to forecast bivalves’ activity data obtained from the BEWS developed by the authors. An algorithm for anomalies detection in bivalves’ activity data was developed. Our results showed that for one of the anomalies, Prophet was the best method, and for the other two, the anomaly detection time did not differ between the methods. A comparison of methods in terms of computational speed showed the advantage of the Croston method. This anomaly detection algorithm can be effectively incorporated into the software of biological early warning systems, facilitating rapid responses to changes in the aquatic environment. Full article
17 pages, 16065 KiB  
Article
Forecasting Convective Storms Trajectory and Intensity by Neural Networks
by Niccolò Borghi, Giorgio Guariso and Matteo Sangiorgio
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 326-342; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020018 - 19 May 2024
Viewed by 407
Abstract
Convective storms represent a dangerous atmospheric phenomenon, particularly for the heavy and concentrated precipitation they can trigger. Given their high velocity and variability, their prediction is challenging, though it is crucial to issue reliable alarms. The paper presents a neural network approach to [...] Read more.
Convective storms represent a dangerous atmospheric phenomenon, particularly for the heavy and concentrated precipitation they can trigger. Given their high velocity and variability, their prediction is challenging, though it is crucial to issue reliable alarms. The paper presents a neural network approach to forecast the convective cell trajectory and intensity, using, as an example, a region in northern Italy that is frequently hit by convective storms in spring and summer. The predictor input is constituted by radar-derived information about the center of gravity of the cell, its reflectivity (a proxy for the intensity of the precipitation), and the area affected by the storm. The essential characteristic of the proposed approach is that the neural network directly forecasts the evolution of the convective cell position and of the other features for the following hour at a 5-min temporal resolution without a relevant loss of accuracy in comparison to predictors trained for each specific variable at a particular time step. Besides its accuracy (R2 of the position is about 0.80 one hour in advance), this machine learning approach has clear advantages over the classical numerical weather predictors since it runs at orders of magnitude more rapidly, thus allowing for the implementation of a real-time early-warning system. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Feature Papers of Forecasting 2024)
30 pages, 3539 KiB  
Article
The Technological Impact on Employment in Spain between 2023 and 2035
by Oussama Chemlal and Wafaa Benomar
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 296-325; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020017 - 30 Apr 2024
Viewed by 734
Abstract
The objective of this work is to predict the impact of technology on employment demand by profession in Spain between 2023 and 2035. The evaluation of this effect involved the comparison of two scenarios: a trend scenario obtained by predicting the evolution of [...] Read more.
The objective of this work is to predict the impact of technology on employment demand by profession in Spain between 2023 and 2035. The evaluation of this effect involved the comparison of two scenarios: a trend scenario obtained by predicting the evolution of occupations in demand and a technological scenario anticipated in the case of technological progress. To accomplish this goal, a new approach was developed in the present study based on previous research. Thus, we estimated the proportion of jobs likely to be automated using a task-based approach. Each occupation was examined based on its components to determine the degree to which these tasks could be automated. The results suggest that technology may influence job demand but with low percentages (between 3% and 5% for both low- and high-qualified workers) in the long term. However, job losses are greater in absolute difference in low-skilled professions, where a great share of the labor force is engaged. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forecasting in Economics and Management)
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17 pages, 10280 KiB  
Article
Deep Learning Models for Bitcoin Prediction Using Hybrid Approaches with Gradient-Specific Optimization
by Amina Ladhari and Heni Boubaker
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 279-295; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020016 - 23 Apr 2024
Viewed by 642
Abstract
Since cryptocurrencies are among the most extensively traded financial instruments globally, predicting their price has become a crucial topic for investors. Our dataset, which includes fluctuations in Bitcoin’s hourly prices from 15 May 2018 to 19 January 2024, was gathered from Crypto Data [...] Read more.
Since cryptocurrencies are among the most extensively traded financial instruments globally, predicting their price has become a crucial topic for investors. Our dataset, which includes fluctuations in Bitcoin’s hourly prices from 15 May 2018 to 19 January 2024, was gathered from Crypto Data Download. It is made up of over 50,000 hourly data points that provide a detailed view of the price behavior of Bitcoin over a five-year period. In this study, we used potent algorithms, including gradient descent, attention mechanisms, long short-term memory (LSTM), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). Furthermore, to estimate the price of Bitcoin, we first merged two deep learning algorithms, LSTM and attention mechanisms, and then combined LSTM-Attention with gradient-specific optimization to increase our model’s performance. Then we integrated ANN-LSTM and included gradient-specific optimization for the same reason. Our results show that the hybrid model with gradient-specific optimization can be used to anticipate Bitcoin values with better accuracy. Indeed, the hybrid model combines the best features of both approaches, and gradient-specific optimization improves predictive performance through frequent analysis of pricing data changes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Forecasting in Economics and Management)
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13 pages, 2602 KiB  
Article
Riding into Danger: Predictive Modeling for ATV-Related Injuries and Seasonal Patterns
by Fernando Ferreira Lima dos Santos and Farzaneh Khorsandi
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 266-278; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020015 - 2 Apr 2024
Viewed by 802
Abstract
All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) are popular off-road vehicles in the United States, with a staggering 10.5 million households reported to own at least one ATV. Despite their popularity, ATVs pose a significant risk of severe injuries, leading to substantial healthcare expenses and raising public [...] Read more.
All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) are popular off-road vehicles in the United States, with a staggering 10.5 million households reported to own at least one ATV. Despite their popularity, ATVs pose a significant risk of severe injuries, leading to substantial healthcare expenses and raising public health concerns. As such, gaining insights into the patterns of ATV-related hospitalizations and accurately predicting these injuries is of paramount importance. This knowledge can guide the development of effective prevention strategies, ultimately mitigating ATV-related injuries and the associated healthcare costs. Therefore, we performed an in-depth analysis of ATV-related hospitalizations from 2010 to 2021. Furthermore, we developed and assessed the performance of three forecasting models—Neural Prophet, SARIMA, and LSTM—to predict ATV-related injuries. The performance of these models was evaluated using the Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) accuracy metric. As a result, the LSTM model outperformed the others and could be used to provide valuable insights that can aid in strategic planning and resource allocation within healthcare systems. In addition, our findings highlight the urgent need for prevention programs that are specifically targeted toward youth and timed for the summer season. Full article
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27 pages, 3052 KiB  
Article
Predictive Maintenance Framework for Fault Detection in Remote Terminal Units
by Alexios Lekidis, Angelos Georgakis, Christos Dalamagkas and Elpiniki I. Papageorgiou
Forecasting 2024, 6(2), 239-265; https://doi.org/10.3390/forecast6020014 - 25 Mar 2024
Viewed by 932
Abstract
The scheduled maintenance of industrial equipment is usually performed with a low frequency, as it usually leads to unpredicted downtime in business operations. Nevertheless, this confers a risk of failure in individual modules of the equipment, which may diminish its performance or even [...] Read more.
The scheduled maintenance of industrial equipment is usually performed with a low frequency, as it usually leads to unpredicted downtime in business operations. Nevertheless, this confers a risk of failure in individual modules of the equipment, which may diminish its performance or even lead to its breakdown, rendering it non-operational. Lately, predictive maintenance methods have been considered for industrial systems, such as power generation stations, as a proactive measure for preventing failures. Such methods use data gathered from industrial equipment and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms to identify data patterns that indicate anomalies and may lead to potential failures. However, industrial equipment exhibits specific behavior and interactions that originate from its configuration from the manufacturer and the system that is installed, which constitutes a great challenge for the effectiveness of ML model maintenance and failure predictions. In this article, we propose a novel method for tackling this challenge based on the development of a digital twin for industrial equipment known as a Remote Terminal Unit (RTU). RTUs are used in electrical systems to provide the remote monitoring and control of critical equipment, such as power generators. The method is applied in an RTU that is connected to a real power generator within a Public Power Corporation (PPC) facility, where operational anomalies are forecasted based on measurements of its processing power, operating temperature, voltage, and storage memory. Full article
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