Ecological Niche Models Reveal Climate Change Effect on Biogeographical Regions: The Iberian Peninsula as a Case Study

Round 1

Reviewer 1 Report

I found this paper to be well organized. Approach and methods are clear and supported with literature. Some additional references are suggested. Minor edits are suggested as indicated on the attached PDF.

Comments for author File: Comments.pdf

Author Response

>>> We appreciate the effort of the Referee. We have applied all changes indicated by the Referee in the pdf, including language errors and the addition of new references: Smith et al. 2005; Freitas et al. 2019; Peterson 2011; Jarnevich et al. 2015; Pascual et al. 2011; Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2008; Maurer 1996. All the changes are highlighted in the document.

Reviewer 2 Report

Dear Authors,

really happy to read your very interesting article. The supplement file is very helpful and valuable. You have done a very comprehensive research that should be evaluated very positively. Going through the text I have some proposals to be incorporated into the article, if possible:

1. Abstract - it is clearly for me what is the focus of your contribution. But still, I think that you should put down one sentence on the aim of your work also into the abstract (I can see the work´s aim in the introduction, but it shou be in the abstract too)
2.  Study area - I would suggest to add a map where readers can see the geographical location of Iberian Peninsula (of cours,  many people know where it is but not everybody)
3. Environmental data - if possible, it will be very helpful to have one table with climate characteristics for Iberian Peninsula over several time periods
4. Discussion - please change the title as "Discussion and Conclusions" and put down some more suggestions or approaches that should be done for effective conservation efforts.

Author Response

really happy to read your very interesting article. The supplement file is very helpful and valuable. You have done a very comprehensive research that should be evaluated very positively. Going through the text I have some proposals to be incorporated into the article, if possible:

>>> We thank the Referee for all the comments and suggestions.

 

Abstract - it is clearly for me what is the focus of your contribution. But still, I think that you should put down one sentence on the aim of your work also into the abstract (I can see the work´s aim in the introduction, but it shou be in the abstract too)

>>> We added the main aim in the abstract as follow: “Here, we analysed whether biogeographical regions are unstable over time (from the past to the future)” in substitution of “Here, we analysed how chorotypes change their spatial patterns over time”.

 

 Study area - I would suggest to add a map where readers can see the geographical location of Iberian Peninsula (of cours,  many people know where it is but not everybody)

>>> We added a map indicating the location of the Iberian Peninsula (Figure 1).

 

Environmental data - if possible, it will be very helpful to have one table with climate characteristics for Iberian Peninsula over several time periods

>>> We added a table with the climate data in the Supplementary Materials (Table S1).

 

Discussion - please change the title as "Discussion and Conclusions" and put down some more suggestions or approaches that should be done for effective conservation efforts.

>>> We changed the title accordingly. We add two sentences to the last paragraph indicating effective conservation efforts: “The identification of species biogeographical patterns and important areas of refugia over time in the light of past climate changes, are essential to apply conservation measures and to target the research on these sites, which include the monitoring of species, mitigation of important threats and increase species potential of dispersal (e.g. restoring habitats, increasing connectivity between suitable habitats or assisting species colonization [40,101]). However, these actions will not be enough if the human population continues to increase uncontrolled [102].”

Reviewer 3 Report

The manuscript studies the chorotypes' change in time of amphibians and reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula for several past and future scenarios. The corresponding biogeographical regions are determined, together with the species' refugia. The work is clearly written and illustrated while there is detailed description of methods and data. Discussion is substantial. My field of expertise is climate modelling therefore my review/comments below should only complement other expert review from the specific ecological field:

p. 60-61 and Title: the statement "biogeographical regions follow climate change" isn't a general one of an established knowledge? Perhaps the title could specify the region and specific method?

p. 119: with a correlation coefficient against which? among them?

section 2.3: clarify what and how (if) is the contribution of observed data of species spatial distribution in order to verify the ecological and climate data incorporation in deriving Figures 1 and 2 for the Present period?

Table 1: Format and re-align correctly the titles of the columns.

section Discussion: I understand it also includes Conclusions.

Author Response

The manuscript studies the chorotypes' change in time of amphibians and reptiles in the Iberian Peninsula for several past and future scenarios. The corresponding biogeographical regions are determined, together with the species' refugia. The work is clearly written and illustrated while there is detailed description of methods and data. Discussion is substantial. My field of expertise is climate modelling therefore my review/comments below should only complement other expert review from the specific ecological field:

 

>>> We thank the referee for reading and commenting the manuscript.

 

1. 60-61 and Title: the statement "biogeographical regions follow climate change" isn't a general one of an established knowledge? Perhaps the title could specify the region and specific method?

>>> We changed the phrase to “However, no studies so far have analysed in detail how biogeographical regions follow climate changes from the past to the future.” and the manuscript title to “Ecological niche models reveal climate change effect on biogeographical regions: the Iberian Peninsula as case study”.

 

1. 119: with a correlation coefficient against which? among them?

>>> Yes, among the variables. We have now completed the sentence: “From the 19 bioclimatic variables available, we selected six with a Pearson correlation lower than 0.75 (i.e. we did not include two correlated variables).”

 

section 2.3: clarify what and how (if) is the contribution of observed data of species spatial distribution in order to verify the ecological and climate data incorporation in deriving Figures 1 and 2 for the Present period?

>>> We used the species presence data to calculate the models of the present. The distribution data match the calculated model of each species. We included a figure of the species presence data (amphibians in red and reptiles in yellow) and each biogeographical region of the present (also in the Supplementary Materials, Figure S13).

 

Table 1: Format and re-align correctly the titles of the columns.

>>> We corrected the format accordingly.

 

section Discussion: I understand it also includes Conclusions.

>>> We changed the title to “Discussion and Conclusions”.