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J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 16, Issue 10 (October 2023) – 45 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): Ethereum is the second largest cryptocurrency in terms of market capitalization. It has a flourishing ecosystem and its blockchain allows for smart contracts. Transaction fees, which are referred to as “gas prices”, are of fundamental importance to this blockchain and its users. This research builds and estimates a bootstrapped quantile regression model to examine whether blockchain activity, such as the number of transactions and smart contracts, can explain changes in Ethereum gas prices. The empirical approach allows us to see relationships across the full distribution of gas price changes. This is essential given that Ethereum has undergone fundamental economic and technological regime changes, such as the recent implementation of the Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559. View this paper
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21 pages, 6062 KiB  
Article
Commodity Prices and the US Business Cycle
by Matthew van der Nest and Gary van Vuuren
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 462; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100462 - 23 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1879
Abstract
This article explores the relationship between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. Commodity price cycles are known to foster capricious macroeconomic activity, and understanding their behaviour offers valuable economic insight. The US business cycle is a key indicator of the broader [...] Read more.
This article explores the relationship between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. Commodity price cycles are known to foster capricious macroeconomic activity, and understanding their behaviour offers valuable economic insight. The US business cycle is a key indicator of the broader economic conditions, reflecting changes in economic activity, consumer spending, and overall market conditions. By examining the dynamics and interplay between these two cycles, this study provides insights into the potential synchronisation, lag, or lead between commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. The study employs a Fourier analysis of commodity price cycles and the US business cycle. In addition, the same empirical method will be used to analyse historical rainfall patterns in the US as a means of furthering the role of historical rainfall patterns in shaping agricultural productivity and subsequent price movements. Results show dominant cycles of 14.2 years throughout the commodity price dataset, 3.8 years within the US business cycle, and 14.2 years in US historical rainfall patterns. The study also identifies several factors that influence the relationship between these two cycles, including global demand, trade policies, and financial market fluctuations. Full article
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12 pages, 1375 KiB  
Article
An Investigation of the Predictability of Uncertainty Indices on Bitcoin Returns
by Jinghua Wang, Geoffrey M. Ngene, Yan Shi and Ann Nduati Mungai
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 461; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100461 - 23 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1290
Abstract
Policymakers and portfolio managers pay keen attention to sources of uncertainties that drive asset returns and volatility. The influence of uncertainty on Bitcoin has the potential to drive fluctuations in the entire cryptocurrency market. We investigate the predictability of thirteen economic policy uncertainty [...] Read more.
Policymakers and portfolio managers pay keen attention to sources of uncertainties that drive asset returns and volatility. The influence of uncertainty on Bitcoin has the potential to drive fluctuations in the entire cryptocurrency market. We investigate the predictability of thirteen economic policy uncertainty indices on Bitcoin returns. Using the Random Forest machine learning algorithm, we find that Singapore’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) has the strongest predictive power on Bitcoin returns, followed by financial crisis (FC) uncertainty and world trade uncertainty (WTU). We further categorize these uncertainties into different groups. Interestingly, the predictability of uncertainty indices on Bitcoin returns within the international trade group is stronger compared to other uncertainty categories. Additionally, we observed that internet-based uncertainty measures have more predictive power of Bitcoin returns than newspaper- and report-based measures. These results are robust using various additional machine learning methods. We believe that these findings could be valuable for policymakers and portfolio managers when making decisions related to uncertainty drivers of cryptocurrency prices and returns. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Financial Technology and Innovation)
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19 pages, 539 KiB  
Article
Environmental Performance and a Nation’s Growth: Does the Economic Status and Style of Governance of a Country Matter?
by Shailesh Rastogi, Jagjeevan Kanoujiya, Pracheta Tejasmayee, Souvik Banerjee, Neha Parashar and Asmita Dani
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 460; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100460 - 22 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1439
Abstract
The literature abounds with studies on the impact of the growth of nations on the environment. However, studies on the financial materiality of environmental concerns are found less often. This study aims to determine the impact of environmental concerns on a nation’s GDP [...] Read more.
The literature abounds with studies on the impact of the growth of nations on the environment. However, studies on the financial materiality of environmental concerns are found less often. This study aims to determine the impact of environmental concerns on a nation’s GDP per capita (GDPC). In addition, the influence of developed nations and democracy is also explored. The data for 106 countries and ten years (2011–2020) are procured from World Bank’s official website. The countries with incomplete data for a balanced panel are not included. Panel data econometrics (quantile regression) is applied to analyze the data. Environmental concerns are measured with the help of environmental efficiency (EE) using data envelopment analysis (DEA). It is found that environmental efficiency (EE) negatively impacts the GDPC for low levels of GDPC. However, no association of EE with GDPC is witnessed in the case of high GDPC levels. In addition, developed nations positively moderate the EE’s impact on the GDPC when the GDPC levels are high. Moreover, democratic nations negatively moderate the EE’s impact on the GDPC when low GDPC levels exist. The main implication of the current study is that developed high GDPC countries could bear a significant chunk of the cost of EE. This way, the adverse impact of an increase in EE on the GDPC (by low GDPC counties) could be dodged, and by the efforts of developed high GDPC countries, EE could be increased significantly without adversely impacting their GDPC. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Markets, Financial Volatility and Beyond (Volume III))
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21 pages, 2549 KiB  
Article
Effects of Revenue-Sharing Contracts and Overconfidence on Innovation for Key Components
by Chengli Wei, Hongzhuan Chen and Yuanfei Kang
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 459; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100459 - 22 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1248
Abstract
Revenue-sharing (RS) contracts are a common approach in incentivizing innovation of upstream suppliers by addressing the uneven profit distribution between upstream and downstream firms. Considering the possible overconfidence characterizing decision makers in the supply chain, we investigate the effect of the RS contract [...] Read more.
Revenue-sharing (RS) contracts are a common approach in incentivizing innovation of upstream suppliers by addressing the uneven profit distribution between upstream and downstream firms. Considering the possible overconfidence characterizing decision makers in the supply chain, we investigate the effect of the RS contract and the tendency of overconfidence of supply chain members on the investment in R&D of key components of products in the context of an upstream supplier that is a leader in the R&D and production of key components. We find that regardless of the bargaining power of either party, an RS contract can increase the R&D investment in key components. Regarding the effects of overconfidence of either the downstream manufacturer or upstream supplier, an RS contract can increase the R&D investment in key components. Supplier (manufacturer) overconfidence can harm their own profits but increase the profits of the manufacturer (supplier), and when the level of overconfidence is below a certain threshold, the damage to their own profits is less than the increase in each other’s profits, thus benefiting the whole supply chain. In addition, we also find a joint effect of RS contracts and overconfidence: when the bargaining power of the supplier is low, the RS contract has a certain compensatory effect on the loss of their own profits caused by overconfidence. Full article
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23 pages, 464 KiB  
Article
Earnings Management and Status of Corporate Governance under Different Levels of Corruption—An Empirical Analysis in European Countries
by Ioannis Dokas
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 458; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100458 - 22 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1497
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of the characteristics of the board of directors on the accrual and real earnings management level, focusing on the role of the corruption level. The employed dataset consists of 469 European-listed firms from 2011 to 2019. Using a [...] Read more.
This study investigates the effect of the characteristics of the board of directors on the accrual and real earnings management level, focusing on the role of the corruption level. The employed dataset consists of 469 European-listed firms from 2011 to 2019. Using a fixed-effect panel data regression model, the results documented that larger boards lack coordination and communication in less corrupt economies, facilitating earnings manipulation through accruals and sales. In highly corrupt countries, oversized boards are associated with increased manipulation of production costs and discretionary expenses. Board meetings are positively related to accrual and sales manipulation in low-corruption countries, and board independence leads to reducing discretionary expenses regardless of corruption level. Board tenure negatively affects accruals and discretionary expenses but tends to increase manipulation through production costs in low-corruption contexts. Additionally, when the CEO serves as the board chairman, it encourages the manipulation of discretionary expenses while reducing real earnings manipulation through sales and production costs. In aggregate, the level of corruption can influence a board’s effectiveness under specific conditions. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Trends and Challenges in Economics and Finance)
28 pages, 599 KiB  
Article
Does Fintech-Driven Inclusive Finance Induce Bank Profitability? Empirical Evidence from Developing Countries
by Changjun Zheng, Md Ataur Rahman, Shahadat Hossain and Syed Moudud-Ul-Huq
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 457; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100457 - 21 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3029
Abstract
This study explores the effect of fintech-driven inclusive finance on the profitability of banks using an unbalanced panel dataset from 660 banks across 40 developing countries between 2011 and 2021. We start with a fixed-effect estimate and subsequently validate our main findings using [...] Read more.
This study explores the effect of fintech-driven inclusive finance on the profitability of banks using an unbalanced panel dataset from 660 banks across 40 developing countries between 2011 and 2021. We start with a fixed-effect estimate and subsequently validate our main findings using two-stage least squares (2SLS-IV), two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM), and generalized least squares (GLS) methodologies. Our analysis centers on three key profitability metrics: ROA, ROE, and NIM. Our findings suggest that fintech-backed inclusive finance boosts ROA by 9.10%, ROE by 18.87%, and NIM by 7.98%, highlighting the growing importance of mobile, internet, and agent banking in these nations. We also note that large banks benefit more from inclusive finance than small ones. Additionally, conventional banks see a more marked improvement in profitability than Islamic and savings banks. The relationship between inclusive finance and bank profitability is stronger in countries with higher GDP growth and those actively advancing financial inclusion through fintech, compared to countries with slower GDP growth and less emphasis on financial inclusion. When examining the interaction effects, the COVID-19 pandemic has further emphasized the positive connection between fintech and bank profitability. This suggests that fintech-driven inclusive finance can play a role in enhancing bank profitability, even in challenging times like the COVID-19 period. The transition towards fintech, however, mandates substantial investments, enhanced financial literacy, and heightened customer security, presenting persistent challenges for governments, policymakers, regulators, and financial institutions. Full article
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17 pages, 401 KiB  
Article
Pricing Path-Dependent Options under Stochastic Volatility via Mellin Transform
by Jiling Cao, Xi Li and Wenjun Zhang
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 456; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100456 - 20 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1120
Abstract
In this paper, we derive closed-form formulas of first-order approximation for down-and-out barrier and floating strike lookback put option prices under a stochastic volatility model using an asymptotic approach. To find the explicit closed-form formulas for the zero-order term and the first-order correction [...] Read more.
In this paper, we derive closed-form formulas of first-order approximation for down-and-out barrier and floating strike lookback put option prices under a stochastic volatility model using an asymptotic approach. To find the explicit closed-form formulas for the zero-order term and the first-order correction term, we use Mellin transform. We also conduct a sensitivity analysis on these formulas, and compare the option prices calculated by them with those generated by Monte-Carlo simulation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Featured Papers in Mathematics and Finance)
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17 pages, 1164 KiB  
Article
Comparison of the Asymmetric Relationship between Bitcoin and Gold, Crude Oil, and the U.S. Dollar before and after the COVID-19 Outbreak
by Yadong Liu, Nathee Naktnasukanjn, Anukul Tamprasirt and Tanarat Rattanadamrongaksorn
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 455; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100455 - 20 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2143
Abstract
This paper aims to reveal the asymmetric co-integration relationship and asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and global financial assets, namely gold, crude oil and the US dollar, and make a comparison for their asymmetric relationship before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Empirical results show [...] Read more.
This paper aims to reveal the asymmetric co-integration relationship and asymmetric causality between Bitcoin and global financial assets, namely gold, crude oil and the US dollar, and make a comparison for their asymmetric relationship before and after the COVID-19 outbreak. Empirical results show that there is no linear co-integration relationship between Bitcoin and global financial assets, but there are nonlinear co-integration relationships. There is an asymmetric co-integration relationship between the rise in Bitcoin prices and the decline in the US Dollar Index (USDX), and there is a nonlinear co-integration relationship between the decline of Bitcoin and the rise and decline in the prices of the three financial assets. To be specific, there is a Granger causality between Bitcoin and crude oil, but not between Bitcoin and gold/US dollar. Before the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, there was an Asymmetric Granger causality between the decline in gold prices and the rise in Bitcoin prices. After the outbreak of the pandemic, there is an asymmetric Granger causality between the decline in crude oil prices and the decline in Bitcoin prices. The COVID-19 epidemic has led to changes in the causality between Bitcoin and global financial assets. However, there is not a linear Granger causality between the US dollar and Bitcoin. Last, the practical implications of the findings are discussed here. Full article
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25 pages, 2092 KiB  
Article
Deciphering DeFi: A Comprehensive Analysis and Visualization of Risks in Decentralized Finance
by Tim Weingärtner, Fabian Fasser, Pedro Reis Sá da Costa and Walter Farkas
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 454; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100454 - 20 Oct 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3122
Abstract
Decentralized finance (DeFi) promises a revolution in financial accessibility, transparency, and automation. Yet, its very novelty exposes participants to a number of additional risks and challenges. This study aims to address the risks associated with DeFi, while also conducting a comparative analysis to [...] Read more.
Decentralized finance (DeFi) promises a revolution in financial accessibility, transparency, and automation. Yet, its very novelty exposes participants to a number of additional risks and challenges. This study aims to address the risks associated with DeFi, while also conducting a comparative analysis to those of classical/traditional finance (TradFi). After introducing DeFi and its defining characteristics, such as the use of smart contracts, blockchain technology, and decentralized governance, the paper outlines the principal risks associated with DeFi. Drawing insights from an extensive literature review of 200 recent articles, of which 50 were thoroughly analyzed, the study compares risks of DeFi and TradFi, categorizing these into systematic and unsystematic risks. Furthermore, we introduce the ‘risk wheel’, an innovative tool tailored to understand and navigate the subtleties of DeFi risks, finding potential applications in risk assessment, management, and even education. This paper’s primary objective is to provide a detailed and impartial examination of the risks associated with DeFi and their comparison to traditional finance in order to assist stakeholders in making informed decisions and mitigating possible losses. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Mechanisms and Models of Risk Management)
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19 pages, 568 KiB  
Article
FinTech Adoption of Financial Services Industry: Exploring the Impact of Creative and Innovative Leadership
by Muzamil Ahmad Baba, Zia ul Haq, Mohsina Dawood and Kumar Aashish
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 453; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100453 - 20 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2753
Abstract
This paper examines the link between creative and innovative leadership and FinTech adoption through the transmission mechanisms of perceived ease of use (PEOU) and perceived usefulness (PU). This study used a questionnaire survey method to collect data from a sample of 721 employees [...] Read more.
This paper examines the link between creative and innovative leadership and FinTech adoption through the transmission mechanisms of perceived ease of use (PEOU) and perceived usefulness (PU). This study used a questionnaire survey method to collect data from a sample of 721 employees working in the Indian financial services sector. The data were analyzed using structural equation modelling. The study results revealed a significant and positive influence of creative and innovative leadership, PEOU, and PU on FinTech adoption. Moreover, PEOU and PU mediated the link between creative and innovative leadership and FinTech adoption. This study proposes a new vision for managerial procedures to understand the critical aspects regarding FinTech adoption. The study advises that engineering managers should offer simple and user-friendly technology to enhance the adoption rate. Additionally, the results suggest the importance of creative and innovative leadership for competitively exploiting novel technologies. Given India’s digital revolution and huge market potential, the FinTech sector could prove a game-changer, especially in generating employment for the young and technologically qualified population. Tech-driven organizations could use the study findings strategically in this digital era. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Fintech, Business, and Development)
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19 pages, 1627 KiB  
Review
Blockchain Application to Financial Market Clearing and Settlement Systems
by Nipun Agarwal, Pornpit Wongthongtham, Neerajkumari Khairwal and Kevin Coutinho
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 452; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100452 - 20 Oct 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 3780
Abstract
Blockchain technology has emerged as a transformative force in the financial industry, offering the potential to streamline and enhance financial markets’ clearing and settlement processes. This paper explores the application of blockchain technology in these critical areas. We examine traditional clearing and settlement [...] Read more.
Blockchain technology has emerged as a transformative force in the financial industry, offering the potential to streamline and enhance financial markets’ clearing and settlement processes. This paper explores the application of blockchain technology in these critical areas. We examine traditional clearing and settlement procedures, the challenges they pose, and how blockchain can address these issues. Through case studies and technical insights, we illustrate the benefits and limitations of implementing blockchain solutions. This paper utilizes the PRISMA method to survey papers related to blockchain-based clearing and settlement systems, while using Science Direct to identify papers that have been published in this area. These papers were reviewed to identify themes that relate to extending blockchain development for clearing and settlement system in financial markets. As a result, this paper also shows how the Layer One X (L1X) blockchain can be applied to develop financial markets clearing and settlement systems. Full article
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20 pages, 675 KiB  
Article
Does Public Corruption Affect Bank Failures? Evidence from the United States
by Serkan Karadas and Nilufer Ozdemir
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 451; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100451 - 19 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1509
Abstract
Corruption influences firm behavior and performance even in relatively transparent countries like the United States. In this paper, we examine whether corruption at the state level affected bank failures during the subprime mortgage crisis. Our measure of corruption is the number of corruption [...] Read more.
Corruption influences firm behavior and performance even in relatively transparent countries like the United States. In this paper, we examine whether corruption at the state level affected bank failures during the subprime mortgage crisis. Our measure of corruption is the number of corruption convictions of government employees (adjusted for population) based on the Public Integrity Section (PIN) reports from the Department of Justice, capturing the degree of “public corruption” in the US. After disaggregating the data based on bank size and geography, we find that corruption is associated with more bank failures for smaller banks and fewer bank failures for banks located in the South. This research marks a pioneering attempt to examine the connection between corruption and bank failures while underscoring the significance of political risk for financial institutions. Given the recent setbacks experienced by Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic Bank, this research provides valuable recommendations for policymakers. The findings suggest the need for regulators to mandate greater transparency regarding banks’ exposure to undisclosed risks, such as political risk. It also advocates for implementing internal control mechanisms to curb corrupt activities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Politics and Investment)
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24 pages, 569 KiB  
Article
Derivative of Reduced Cumulative Distribution Function and Applications
by Kevin Maritato and Stan Uryasev
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 450; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100450 - 18 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1621
Abstract
The reduced cumulative distribution function (rCDF) is the maximal lower bound for the cumulative distribution function (CDF). It is equivalent to the inverse of the conditional value at risk (CVaR), or one minus the buffered probability of exceedance (bPOE). This paper introduces the [...] Read more.
The reduced cumulative distribution function (rCDF) is the maximal lower bound for the cumulative distribution function (CDF). It is equivalent to the inverse of the conditional value at risk (CVaR), or one minus the buffered probability of exceedance (bPOE). This paper introduces the reduced probability density function (rPDF), the derivative of rCDF. We first explore the relation between rCDF and other risk measures. Then we describe three means of calculating rPDF for a distribution, depending on what is known about the distribution. For functions with a closed-form formula for bPOE, we derive closed-form formulae for rPDF. Further, we describe formulae for rPDF based on a numerical bPOE when there is a closed-form formula for CVaR but no closed-form formula for bPOE. Finally, we give a method for numerically calculating rPDF for an empirical distribution, and compare the results with other methods for known distributions. We conducted a case study and used rPDF for sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation with a method similar to the maximum likelihood method. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Technologies (Fintech) in Finance and Economics)
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19 pages, 1349 KiB  
Article
Does Sustainable Finance Work on Banking Sector in ASEAN?: The Effect of Sustainable Finance and Capital on Firm Value with Institutional Ownership as a Moderating Variable
by Mochamad Roland Perdana, Achmad Sudiro, Kusuma Ratnawati and Rofiaty Rofiaty
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 449; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100449 - 18 Oct 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1924
Abstract
Management in the banking industry is not solely focused on financial performance but also on the sustainability of their portfolios. To achieve this, banks need to incorporate sustainable finance into their balance sheet. In addition, a global phenomenon has emerged where investors have [...] Read more.
Management in the banking industry is not solely focused on financial performance but also on the sustainability of their portfolios. To achieve this, banks need to incorporate sustainable finance into their balance sheet. In addition, a global phenomenon has emerged where investors have demanded the inclusion of sustainable finance in portfolios. This financial instrument served to support the global agreement on climate change, which they were committed to making a reality. The impact of sustainable finance on firm value remains a question. Therefore, this study aimed to examine the effect of sustainable finance and capital on firm value within the banking industry, focusing on entities listed on the ASEAN stock market from 2015 to 2021. To assess investor demand for involvement in sustainable finance, a moderating variable was included in the model. Furthermore, this study used a quantitative design and a purposive sampling technique with panel data regression analysis for the hypothesis testing. The results showed that sustainable finance and capital had a significant effect on firm value. Institutional ownership moderated the relationship between sustainable finance and firm value, although it did not moderate the link between capital and firm value. This indicated that banks prioritized sustainable finance due to its positive impact on their operations, ultimately leading to an improvement in firm value. Furthermore, institutional ownership influenced the relationship between sustainable finance and firm value, as banks strived to comply with international society or enhance firm value. This study incorporated profitability ratios and firm size as the control variables. Full article
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14 pages, 704 KiB  
Article
Work Engagement, Financial Wellness Support and COVID-19 Risk Perceptions in Egypt
by Michael R. Wagner, Ghadeer Mohamed Badr Eldin Aboul-Ela and Marwa El Maghawry Ibrahim
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 448; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100448 - 18 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1313
Abstract
While the relationship between COVID-19 and employee attitudes has been studied in developed economies, little research has examined this relationship in emerging markets. This is relevant in the age of COVID-19, given the financial disruption it has caused. Also, little research has investigated [...] Read more.
While the relationship between COVID-19 and employee attitudes has been studied in developed economies, little research has examined this relationship in emerging markets. This is relevant in the age of COVID-19, given the financial disruption it has caused. Also, little research has investigated how employee financial wellness programs are related to employee attitudes. This study examined how generalized perceptions of COVID-19 risk and perceptions of financial wellness support were related to work engagement. It also sought to understand whether financial wellness and COVID-19 risk interact in their relationship with work engagement. 106 employed persons in Egypt were surveyed. Results showed that, consistent with theory on perceived organizational support, perceptions of financial wellness support were positively related to work engagement. A significant interaction was also found, such that at high levels of financial wellness, COVID-19 risk perceptions were not related to engagement; however, at lower levels of financial wellness, COVID-19 risk was positively related to engagement. Practical and theoretical implications are discussed. Full article
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14 pages, 3334 KiB  
Article
COVID-19 Pandemic and Indices Volatility: Evidence from GARCH Models
by Rajesh Mamilla, Chinnadurai Kathiravan, Aidin Salamzadeh, Léo-Paul Dana and Mohamed Elheddad
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 447; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100447 - 17 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1665
Abstract
This study examines the impact of volatility on the returns of nine National Stock Exchange (NSE) indices before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modelling to analyse investor risk and the impact of volatility on [...] Read more.
This study examines the impact of volatility on the returns of nine National Stock Exchange (NSE) indices before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic. The study employed generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) modelling to analyse investor risk and the impact of volatility on returns. The study makes several contributions to the existing literature. First, it uses advanced volatility forecasting models, such as ARCH and GARCH, to improve volatility estimates and anticipate future volatility. Second, it enhances the analysis of index return volatility. The study found that the COVID-19 period outperformed the pre-COVID-19 and overall periods. Since the Nifty Realty Index is the most volatile, Nifty Bank, Metal, and Information Technology (IT) investors reaped greater returns during COVID-19 than before. The study provides a comprehensive review of the volatility and risk of nine NSE indices. Volatility forecasting techniques can help investors to understand index volatility and mitigate risk while navigating these dynamic indices. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Banking during the COVID-19 Pandemia)
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34 pages, 2474 KiB  
Article
Understanding the Effects of Market Volatility on Profitability Perceptions of Housing Market Developers
by Shahab Valaei Sharif, Dawn Cassandra Parker, Paul Waddell and Ted Tsiakopoulos
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 446; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100446 - 16 Oct 2023
Viewed by 2479
Abstract
Drastic shifts in prices and housing market trends in recent years, representing shocks to the housing system, have led many residential developers to pause or cancel their projects. In the already heated housing markets of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), these supply frictions [...] Read more.
Drastic shifts in prices and housing market trends in recent years, representing shocks to the housing system, have led many residential developers to pause or cancel their projects. In the already heated housing markets of the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), these supply frictions can have ramifications for affordability. Our study formulates a standardized “proforma” model of the profitability of a hypothetical condominium project in the city of Toronto, Canada, scheduled between 2019 to 2023, to explore the combined effect of developers’ price expectations and market volatility on developers’ decisions. Using the proposed proforma, we first identify the key drivers of development decisions. We then evaluate the impact of the expectation formation of key factors influencing perceived development profitability, including construction costs, sales prices, and interest rates, on the financial feasibility of potential developments. The results highlight that boundedly rational expectations can cause variations in profitability perceptions and potentially reverse development decisions in volatile market conditions. Our results highlight the sources of risk and uncertainty in development decisions, facilitating the recognition of possible solutions to mitigate these risks and increase affordable housing supplies. The proposed model can also enhance the realism of decision models in agent-based representations of land and housing markets. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Shocks, Public Policies and Housing Markets)
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17 pages, 327 KiB  
Article
Assessing the Maturity of Sustainable Business Model and Strategy Reporting under the CSRD Shadow
by Niki Glaveli, Maria Alexiou, Apostolos Maragos, Anastasia Daskalopoulou and Viktoria Voulgari
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 445; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100445 - 16 Oct 2023
Viewed by 2046
Abstract
The present work is amongst the few that attempt to critically assess the maturity of Business Model (BM) and strategy disclosures of listed firms under the shadow of the new EU reporting directive, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). The novel Practices Evaluation [...] Read more.
The present work is amongst the few that attempt to critically assess the maturity of Business Model (BM) and strategy disclosures of listed firms under the shadow of the new EU reporting directive, the Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive (CSRD). The novel Practices Evaluation Approach (PEA), developed recently by the Project Task Force on Reporting of Non-Financial Risks and Opportunities (PTF-RNFRO), offers the evaluation framework for this assessment. The PEA delineates and evaluates the maturity of BM and strategy disclosures against qualitative characteristics and content elements drawn from well-accepted, financial and non-financial, reporting frameworks, standards and directives (including the CSRD). Therefore, the PEA provides the advantage of a contemporary and integrated/holistic assessment tool. Specifically, the following seven evaluation criteria are used for the assessment: clarity and comprehensiveness of the overall BM, strategy disclosure, disclosure of the BM’s potential across-time horizons and its dependencies, impacts on sustainability issues, material sustainability issues that are likely to affect the company’s performance, the BM’s exposure to sustainability risks and sustainability opportunities, and sustainability strategy, targets, KPIs and their monitoring and progress. The analysis covered 30 CSR/sustainability reports and connected documents of listed companies operating in 6 key sectors of the Greek economy, i.e., information technology, construction, tourism and transportation, cosmetics, banking and energy. The results of our analysis offer evidence that BM reporting is not holistically developed (i.e., critical components are missing), and the level of development varies across the examined sectors. Moreover, sustainability risks are more stressed, in relevance to opportunities, whilst positive (rather than negative) impacts are mainly disclosed. Also, the quantification of sustainability risks and opportunities does not appear frequently, whilst the interconnections between sustainability strategy and companies’ financial objectives is relatively restricted. The paper concludes by pointing out some critical hints useful for enhancing the maturity of BM and strategy disclosures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Global Trends and Challenges in Economics and Finance)
17 pages, 579 KiB  
Article
A Rank Estimator Approach to Modeling Default Frequencies
by Antti J. Harju
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 444; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100444 - 15 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1277
Abstract
This study introduces a non-parametric methodology for estimating expected frequencies of defaults and other credit events. The methodology allows for an independent estimation of a credit-quality variable, referred to as a default rank variable. In a subsequent step, the relationship between the rank [...] Read more.
This study introduces a non-parametric methodology for estimating expected frequencies of defaults and other credit events. The methodology allows for an independent estimation of a credit-quality variable, referred to as a default rank variable. In a subsequent step, the relationship between the rank variable and the expected default frequency is established. This analysis can be achieved by initially determining the functional dependence between the rank variable and the expected tail default frequencies representing the average default frequencies of entities ranked lower than a given rank value. The expected default frequency can then be derived from a simple linear integral equation. We propose a prototype model for public corporations which establishes generalized logistic function dependencies between the distance-to-default rank variable and the expected default frequencies in the log–log space. This relationship applies to public corporations across different credit rating categories. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Applied Economics and Finance)
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28 pages, 938 KiB  
Article
The Market Reaction to Repurchase Announcements
by Adhiraj Sodhi, Cesario Mateus, Irina Mateus and Aleksandar Stojanovic
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 443; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100443 - 12 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1566
Abstract
This paper investigates the drivers of the market’s reaction to share repurchase announcements in the UK and the related abnormality in stock performance. It uniquely captures the impact of globalisation in tandem with a variety of firm-level and macro-level determinants. We undertake multivariate [...] Read more.
This paper investigates the drivers of the market’s reaction to share repurchase announcements in the UK and the related abnormality in stock performance. It uniquely captures the impact of globalisation in tandem with a variety of firm-level and macro-level determinants. We undertake multivariate OLS regression to test the determinants of the market’s reaction and find a negative influence when repurchases are tax-friendlier than dividends if there is high debt exposure and economic globalisation is rising, with a positive influence when the company has a history of distributing above average dividends. To quantify the short-term price abnormality, we employ event study analysis, and the findings compute positive (insignificant) stock price abnormality for nonfinancial (financial) firms. For long-term stock price abnormality, we compare against the FTSE 100 by computing annual geometric stock performances. The findings indicate a negative (insignificant) stock price abnormality for nonfinancial (financial) firms. The results can aid corporate management in improving repurchase timing, aid in the decision making of financial practitioners when trading or investing in repurchasing firms, and assist policymakers in mapping more efficient fiscal and cross-market trade frameworks. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advances in Corporate Finance and Investments)
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15 pages, 1471 KiB  
Article
The Launch of a Night Trading Session and Currency Futures Market Liquidity: Evidence from the Thailand Futures Exchange
by Woradee Jongadsayakul
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 442; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100442 - 11 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1276
Abstract
The Thailand Futures Exchange launched USD Futures as the first currency futures contract on 5 June 2012. However, it has been available for night trading since 27 September 2021. This research aims to analyze the effect of adding a night trading session on [...] Read more.
The Thailand Futures Exchange launched USD Futures as the first currency futures contract on 5 June 2012. However, it has been available for night trading since 27 September 2021. This research aims to analyze the effect of adding a night trading session on USD Futures market liquidity and to make a liquidity comparison between day and night session trading. By adding a dummy variable into the vector autoregression model of order 5 to capture the effect of a night session introduction on market liquidity, the results show that market depth and breadth are even stronger after a longer trading session. In addition, the t-test results show the presence of lower tightness but stronger depth and breadth in day session trading than in night session trading, because of the availability of a large number of orders and the ability of the market to have smoother trading in day as opposed to night. Due to the positive effect of extended trading hours on market depth and breadth, TFEX should consider a longer night session in line with other global futures markets. Night traders should also be aware of liquidity risk due to low night session trading volume. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Computational Finance and Financial Econometrics)
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25 pages, 345 KiB  
Article
The Determinants of Implementing and Completing Share Repurchases
by Adhiraj Sodhi and Aleksandar Stojanovic
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 441; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100441 - 10 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1293
Abstract
Open-market repurchase is a popular corporate payout method that public limited company (PLCs) use, and once they have made this decision an announcement is made. However, the announcement does not necessarily mean that the firm will implement the payout, or if it is [...] Read more.
Open-market repurchase is a popular corporate payout method that public limited company (PLCs) use, and once they have made this decision an announcement is made. However, the announcement does not necessarily mean that the firm will implement the payout, or if it is initiated that they will buy back the entire announced volume of shares. Thus, using a sample of firms listed on the London Stock Exchange that announced an open-market repurchase between 1993 and 2014, we test the determinants of repurchase implementation using probit regressions, and if their influence also extends to the payout’s completion using Tobit regressions. The results are not identical in nature, but largely indicate a consistency between the influence patterns. Positive influences are exhibited by firm leverage, the balance sheet’s asset base, independent directors and the repurchase’s tax efficiency over dividends. Additionally, the volume of shares announced for repurchasing has a positive influence on the payout’s implementation, but not its completion, while market capitalisation has a positive influence on the payout’s completion, but not its implementation. The findings are most useful for financial practitioners to optimise their portfolio following a repurchase announcement. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Empirical Corporate Finance)
17 pages, 708 KiB  
Article
Lightweight Scheme to Capture Stock Market Sentiment on Social Media Using Sparse Attention Mechanism: A Case Study on Twitter
by Sihan Wu and Fuyu Gu
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 440; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100440 - 10 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1288
Abstract
Over through the years, people have invested in stock markets in order to maximize their profit from the money they possess. Financial sentiment analysis is an important topic in stock market businesses since it helps investors to understand the overall sentiment towards a [...] Read more.
Over through the years, people have invested in stock markets in order to maximize their profit from the money they possess. Financial sentiment analysis is an important topic in stock market businesses since it helps investors to understand the overall sentiment towards a company and the stock market, which helps them make better investment decisions. Recent studies show that stock sentiment has strong correlations with the stock market, and we can effectively monitor public sentiment towards the stock market by leveraging social media data. Consequently, it is crucial to develop a model capable of reliably and quickly capturing the sentiment of the stock market. In this paper, we propose a novel and effective sequence-to-sequence transformer model, optimized using a sparse attention mechanism, for financial sentiment analysis. This approach enables investors to understand the overall sentiment towards a company and the stock market, thereby aiding in better investment decisions. Our model is trained on a corpus of financial news items to predict sentiment scores for financial companies. When benchmarked against other models like CNN, LSTM, and BERT, our model is “lightweight” and achieves a competitive latency of 10.3 ms and a reduced computational complexity of 3.2 GFLOPS—which is faster than BERT’s 12.5 ms while maintaining higher computational complexity. This research has the potential to significantly inform decision making in the financial sector. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Emerging Markets II)
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14 pages, 316 KiB  
Article
Predicting the Non-Return of Chonsei Lease Deposits in the Republic of Korea
by Joung Oh Park, Jinhee Choi and Guy Ngayo
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 439; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100439 - 09 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1368
Abstract
Chonsei, a Korean housing lease system, enables landlords to acquire direct housing purchase funds without mortgages and offers tenants a cost-effective rental option. However, public concerns have arisen about potential landlord defaults, causing financial distress for tenants. This study examined the risk of [...] Read more.
Chonsei, a Korean housing lease system, enables landlords to acquire direct housing purchase funds without mortgages and offers tenants a cost-effective rental option. However, public concerns have arisen about potential landlord defaults, causing financial distress for tenants. This study examined the risk of non-return of the Chonsei deposit and developed a default prediction model using Chonsei contract data from the Korea Housing and Urban Guarantee Corporation. Starting with the components from Merton’s bond pricing model, we included variables that reflect contract-specific factors, macroeconomic conditions, and the Korean Chonsei practices. The findings revealed that higher house price volatility, elevated debt-to-house value, and risk-free interest rates positively correlate with non-return risk. Meanwhile, certain factors, such as longer remaining maturity, favorable macroeconomic conditions, and rising market Chonsei price trends, demonstrated negative correlations with non-return risk. Consequently, a logistic regression-based default prediction model, with eight risk factors that predict the deposit non-return, was suggested. By identifying risk factors and predicting the non-return risk of deposits, this study contributes to an informed policy decision in planning and practicing Chonsei contracts in the Korean housing market. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Financial Markets)
19 pages, 1166 KiB  
Article
Combating Rising Energy Poverty with Sunnah-Compliant Orthodox Sukuk Finance
by Abdullahi Ahmed Umar, Kabiru Goje and Mahadi Ahmad
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 438; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100438 - 08 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1371
Abstract
There is a growing number of published peer-reviewed articles, government reports and investigations from civil societies reporting the poor performance of Public Private Partnerships (PPP)-provided utilities services. The purpose of this desk study is to explore the unreported connection between the source of [...] Read more.
There is a growing number of published peer-reviewed articles, government reports and investigations from civil societies reporting the poor performance of Public Private Partnerships (PPP)-provided utilities services. The purpose of this desk study is to explore the unreported connection between the source of financing for Public Private Partnerships (PPP) projects in the energy sector and the growing energy poverty across the globe. Energy poverty has become a growing threat to households in both developing and developed countries. Studies have shown that energy poverty results in poor health outcomes, discomfort, and poor economic and intellectual development. The causes of energy poverty have been attributed to rising energy prices, stagnated household incomes and poorly energy-efficient buildings. In response, there are growing calls in many countries for the re-nationalisation of energy companies. However, there is a dearth of studies exploring the connection between conventional interest-based debt finance used in financing PPPs which require tariffs to be designed to achieve cost recovery and overcome the growing energy poverty. Our intention is to show that beyond the private vs. public provision debate, there exists an unexplored third approach that mainstream experts seem to ignore or are oblivious about. We argue that the highly leveraged interest-based financing model currently used by PPP sponsors exacerbates energy poverty because of interest costs built into consumer tariffs. We argue that adopting orthodox non-interest equity-based sukuks as a medium of financing for energy PPPs will lead to a reduction in energy tariffs, and will enhance affordability, sustainability, value-for-money and reduce energy poverty. The emphasis on orthodoxy is derived from the fact that most of the current sukuks in the market violate the core concept of Islamic finance by promising a fixed return to investors. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Sustainability and Finance)
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21 pages, 1439 KiB  
Article
Integrating Bioeconomy Principles in Bionic Production: Enhancing Sustainability and Environmental Performance
by Sanja Tišma and Mira Mileusnić Škrtić
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 437; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100437 - 08 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1609
Abstract
The integration of bioeconomy principles in bionic production holds promise for enhancing sustainability and resource efficiency. This scientific article aims to investigate the potential of bioeconomy-driven approaches in bionic production, focusing on the utilization of renewable biological resources, sustainable manufacturing techniques, and circular [...] Read more.
The integration of bioeconomy principles in bionic production holds promise for enhancing sustainability and resource efficiency. This scientific article aims to investigate the potential of bioeconomy-driven approaches in bionic production, focusing on the utilization of renewable biological resources, sustainable manufacturing techniques, and circular design strategies. The research questions guide the exploration of resource utilization, manufacturing techniques, waste reduction, environmental impact assessment, and economic considerations. The article presents a conceptual framework that integrates bioeconomy principles throughout the life cycle of bionic products, validating the proposed concepts and methodologies. By embracing bioeconomy principles, this article highlights the potential of bionic production to contribute to sustainable development, resource conservation, and the transition toward a bioeconomy. Full article
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35 pages, 1929 KiB  
Article
Determinants of Non-Performing Loans in a Small Island Economy of Fiji: Accounting for COVID-19, Bank-Type, and Globalisation
by Shasnil Avinesh Chand, Ronald Ravinesh Kumar and Peter Josef Stauvermann
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 436; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100436 - 07 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1668
Abstract
An increase in non-performing loans and bad debts in the banking sector can make banks vulnerable to a loss of confidence among customers and other banks and a banking collapse. The recent pandemic (COVID-19) and the evolving globalisation can affect bank operations, although [...] Read more.
An increase in non-performing loans and bad debts in the banking sector can make banks vulnerable to a loss of confidence among customers and other banks and a banking collapse. The recent pandemic (COVID-19) and the evolving globalisation can affect bank operations, although the effects may depend on the type of banks and other bank-specific factors. In this paper, we revisit the topic on the determinants of non-performing loans of banks in a small island economy of Fiji over the period 2000 to 2022. We apply a fixed-effect method and consider seven banks (five commercial banks and two non-bank financial institutions). In our estimations, we examine the effect of bank-specific factors and control for the social and economic globalisation, the GFC, the COVID-19 pandemic, and bank-type effects, as well as the effect of the interaction between the bank type and the pandemic, as key contributions of the study. Overall, our results are consistent in terms of the effects noted from the bank-specific factors. From the extended model estimations, we note that COVID-19 had a more adverse effect on loan losses than the GFC, and the interaction between the bank type and COVID-19 indicates that non-banks were highly vulnerable to loan losses, whereas commercial banks exhibited greater preparedness. Economic globalisation reduces bank losses, whereas social globalisation exacerbates NPLs. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Financial Markets, Financial Volatility and Beyond (Volume III))
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18 pages, 354 KiB  
Article
American Corporate Sustainability and Extra-Financial Performance: Is There an Inverted-U Relationship
by Nahed Zghidi, Rihab Bousnina and Samarkand Mokni
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 435; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100435 - 06 Oct 2023
Viewed by 1231
Abstract
In this paper, we explore the nexus between extra-financial performance (sustainable ESG) and firm performance within a sample of American firms from different vital sectors. In particular, we examine whether extra-financial performance has an effect on company performance. To this end, we have [...] Read more.
In this paper, we explore the nexus between extra-financial performance (sustainable ESG) and firm performance within a sample of American firms from different vital sectors. In particular, we examine whether extra-financial performance has an effect on company performance. To this end, we have used a non-linear model. The study is based on a sample of 93 American companies over the period 2010–2019. We find that the association between extra-financial performance and firms’ financial performance is nonlinear, exhibiting an inverted U-shaped pattern. In particular, the results emphasize the importance of caution when pursuing ESG initiatives. Enterprise managers should monitor the effect of ESG activities on extra-financial performance and confirm the ESG threshold of their organization. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Contemporary Issues in Sustainable Banking and Finance)
16 pages, 316 KiB  
Article
Unveiling the Influence of Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning on Financial Markets: A Comprehensive Analysis of AI Applications in Trading, Risk Management, and Financial Operations
by Mohammad El Hajj and Jamil Hammoud
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 434; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100434 - 05 Oct 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 11790
Abstract
This study explores the adoption and impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in financial markets, utilizing a mixed-methods approach that includes a quantitative survey and a qualitative analysis of existing research papers, reports, and articles. The quantitative results demonstrate the [...] Read more.
This study explores the adoption and impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in financial markets, utilizing a mixed-methods approach that includes a quantitative survey and a qualitative analysis of existing research papers, reports, and articles. The quantitative results demonstrate the growing adoption of AI and ML technologies in financial institutions and their most common applications, such as algorithmic trading, risk management, fraud detection, credit scoring, and customer service. Additionally, the qualitative analysis identifies key themes, including AI and ML adoption trends, challenges and barriers to adoption, the role of regulation, workforce transformation, and ethical and social considerations. The study highlights the need for financial professionals to adapt their skills and for organizations to address challenges, such as data privacy concerns, regulatory compliance, and ethical considerations. The research contributes to the knowledge on AI and ML in finance, helping policymakers, regulators, and professionals understand their benefits and challenges. Full article
22 pages, 2055 KiB  
Article
Hospital Costing Methods: Four Decades of Literature Review
by Isabel C. P. Marques and Maria-Ceu Alves
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2023, 16(10), 433; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16100433 - 04 Oct 2023
Viewed by 2649
Abstract
This study aims to identify and classify the costing methods used in hospitals in recent decades and to analyze the research carried out in this area, to identify and characterize the main lines of research and the research paradigms used. To this end, [...] Read more.
This study aims to identify and classify the costing methods used in hospitals in recent decades and to analyze the research carried out in this area, to identify and characterize the main lines of research and the research paradigms used. To this end, a systematic literature review was carried out, mapping 1067 articles collected from the ISI Web of Science and Scopus databases. The articles were selected by two independent researchers. To ensure the quality of the SLR, AMSTAR 2 was used as well as matrices for quantitative studies, and for qualitative articles. Additionally, the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) systematic review process was followed to systematize the article selection process. Of the 1067 articles screened, 172 articles met the inclusion criteria. The results point to a growing interest among researchers and a predominance of the positive paradigm, albeit with an increase in interpretative research. There is a growing production of descriptive analyses of hospital processes and the costing of pathologies, with a predominance of the ABC method and analyses of costs and reimbursements for diagnosis-related groups. As a contribution, a conceptual model is proposed that aims to help the performance of hospital institutions, as well as a proposal for a future agenda based on this model. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Business and Entrepreneurship)
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