Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Influencing Factors of Rural Resilience from the Perspective of Sustainable Rural Development
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Research Framework
2.1.1. Theoretical Logic of Rural Territorial System, Rural Revitalization Strategy and Rural Resilience
2.1.2. Constructing Rural Resilience Evaluation System
2.1.3. Determining Impact Factors of Rural Resilience
2.2. Methods and Data Sources
2.2.1. Entropy-TOPSIS Method
- Construction of evaluation matrix. Assuming the existence of m evaluation indicators and n evaluation objects, the original evaluation matrix Y for the level of rural resilience is:
- Data standardization.
- Indicator weights. We used the entropy weight method to determine the weights of the indicators to avoid the possibility of human-caused bias.
- Weighted Evaluation Matrix. The weighted evaluation matrix () is obtained by combining the standardized matrix () with the weights of each indicator ().
- Positive and negative ideal solutions.
- Euclidean distance.
- Closeness.
2.2.2. Spatial Autocorrelation Model
2.2.3. Qualitative Comparative Analysis Method (QCA)
2.2.4. Data Sources
3. Results
3.1. Analysis of the Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Rural Resilience Levels
3.1.1. Time Evolution Characteristics
3.1.2. Spatial Distribution Characteristics
3.2. Configuration Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Rural Resilience
3.2.1. Data Calibration and Necessity Analysis
3.2.2. Analysis of Conditional Configuration Results
- High-level rural resilience explanation path
- 2.
- Non-high level rural resilience explanation path
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
Appendix A
- The general requirements of rural revitalization strategy is “thriving businesses, pleasant living environments, social etiquette and civility, effective governance, and prosperity”. It puts forward the direction and construction goals of China’s rural development from five aspects: industry, ecology, culture, governance and livelihood;
- Industry revitalization, talent revitalization, culture revitalization, environment revitalization and organizational structures revitalization are collectively referred to as the five revitalizations. It is the specific requirements of the rural revitalization strategy from five important aspects;
- Hu Huanyong Line is named after Hu Huanyong, a famous population geographer. Hu Huanyong proposed this line in 1935 to indicate the population density of different areas on either side of the line.
Dimensions | Indicators | Notes |
---|---|---|
Industrial resilience | Added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries | To reflect the benefits of local industries |
Output value of total regional agricultural | To reflect the level of local agricultural development | |
Added value of the secondary and tertiary industries/GDP of the year | To reflect economic diversification. The secondary industries are mining (excluding ancillary activities), manufacturing (excluding metal products, machinery and equipment repair), production and supply of electricity, heat, gas and water, and construction. The tertiary industry refers to the service industry and refers to industries other than the primary and secondary industries. | |
Proportion of rural 16–64 years old to the total population | To reflect the current situation of rural labor force | |
Ecological resilience | Rural greening coverage rate | To reflect the ecological restoration of rural areas |
Drainage culvert density | To reflect the level of rural ecological environment governance | |
Fertilizer application intensity per unit of arable land area | To reflect the impact of rural ecological environment | |
Prevalence rate of harmless sanitary toilets in rural areas | To reflect the sustainable development of rural ecological environment. Harmless sanitary toilets refer to toilets that meet the basic requirements of sanitary toilets, have facilities for harmless disposal of feces and are managed according to standards. | |
Cultural resilience | Number of national civilized villages and towns | To reflect the level of civilization in the region. The national civilized villages and towns in China are evaluated nationwide according to the development of villages and towns in all aspects through the examination and evaluation of organizations and leaders at all levels. The evaluation criteria include five aspects: organization and leadership, creation activities, village appearance, cultural construction, and social fashion. |
Proportion of people with high school education or above to the total number of people | To reflect the level of cultural literacy and education of rural residents | |
Proportion of rural grassroots organization personnel to the total rural population | To reflect the civilization level and political literacy of rural residents. The number of rural grassroots organizations here is the number of village committee members. | |
Average number of cultural stations per township | To reflect the accessibility of cultural and recreational facilities. Township cultural station is a public welfare institution held by the government. It is a comprehensive public cultural institution that integrates various cultural activities such as reading books and newspapers, publicity and education, literature and entertainment, popular science training, information services, sports and fitness, and serves the local rural masses. | |
Organizational resilience | Proportion of financial expenditures on employment and health care to general public expenditures | To reflect social security capacity. Employment medical and health expenditure includes social security and employment expenditure and health and health expenditure. |
Proportion of public security expenditures to general public expenditures | To reflect government investment in public security | |
Area of roads per capita | To reflect the regional road construction and transportation convenience | |
Household access rate of rural cable radio and TV | To reflect the degree of integration in the information age | |
Livelihood resilience | Rural residents’ savings rate | To reflect the saving capacity of farmers |
Rural residents’ per capita disposable income | To reflect the living standard and rich degree of farmers | |
Rural population employment rate | To reflect the employment situation of the rural population and their ability to resist risks | |
Rural retail sales growth rate of consumer goods | To reflect the level of rural consumption |
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Target | Dimensions | Indicators 1 | Properties 2 | Weights |
---|---|---|---|---|
Rural Resilience | Industrial resilience (0.157) | Added value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries | + | 0.116 |
Output value of total regional agricultural | + | 0.004 | ||
Added value of the secondary and tertiary industries/GDP of the year | + | 0.021 | ||
Proportion of rural 16–64 years old to the total population | + | 0.016 | ||
Ecological resilience (0.266) | Rural greening coverage rate | + | 0.088 | |
Drainage culvert density | + | 0.084 | ||
Fertilizer application intensity per unit of arable land area | − | 0.030 | ||
Prevalence rate of harmless sanitary toilets in rural areas | + | 0.064 | ||
Cultural resilience (0.212) | Number of national civilized villages and towns | + | 0.099 | |
Proportion of people with high school education or above to the total number of people | + | 0.052 | ||
Proportion of rural grassroots organization personnel to the total rural population | + | 0.039 | ||
Average number of cultural stations per township | + | 0.022 | ||
Organizational resilience (0.221) | Proportion of financial expenditures on employment and health care to general public expenditures | + | 0.035 | |
Proportion of public security expenditures to general public expenditures | + | 0.047 | ||
Area of roads per capita | + | 0.041 | ||
Household access rate of rural cable radio and TV | + | 0.098 | ||
Livelihood resilience (0.144) | Rural residents’ savings rate | + | 0.017 | |
Rural residents’ per capita disposable income | + | 0.076 | ||
Rural population employment rate | + | 0.030 | ||
Rural retail sales growth rate of consumer goods | + | 0.021 |
Antecedent Condition | Variable Selection | Variable Definition | |
---|---|---|---|
Administrative force | ADM | Per capita finance expenditure of agriculture, forestry and water resources | The attention and support of governments at all levels to rural construction |
Market force | MAR | Rural construction input | The effective allocation ability of rural market resources |
Labor force | LAB | Years of schooling per capita | The ability of talent to support rural construction |
Technology force | TEC | Level of agricultural machinery | The ability of rural industries, especially agricultural science and technology innovation |
Cultural force | CUL | Per capita cultural and entertainment consumption expenditure | The identity and cohesiveness of the countryside based on culture |
Region | Entropy-TOPSIS Method | Gray Evaluation Method | Ranking Change Results | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Results | Ranking | Results | Ranking | ||
Beijing | 0.445 | 4 | 0.415 | 3 | 1 |
Tianjin | 0.380 | 9 | 0.408 | 4 | 5 |
Hebei | 0.327 | 15 | 0.371 | 7 | 8 |
Liaoning | 0.315 | 18 | 0.354 | 10 | 8 |
Shanghai | 0.495 | 2 | 0.498 | 1 | 1 |
Jiangsu | 0.520 | 1 | 0.483 | 2 | 1 |
Zhejiang | 0.431 | 5 | 0.373 | 6 | 1 |
Fujian | 0.419 | 7 | 0.363 | 9 | 2 |
Shandong | 0.466 | 3 | 0.402 | 5 | 2 |
Guangdong | 0.428 | 6 | 0.346 | 11 | 5 |
Hainan | 0.370 | 11 | 0.339 | 12 | 1 |
Shanxi | 0.282 | 20 | 0.335 | 13 | 7 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.220 | 29 | 0.225 | 31 | 2 |
Jilin | 0.237 | 27 | 0.270 | 26 | 1 |
Heilongjiang | 0.279 | 21 | 0.316 | 14 | 7 |
Anhui | 0.319 | 17 | 0.312 | 15 | 2 |
Jiangxi | 0.338 | 14 | 0.311 | 17 | 3 |
Henan | 0.400 | 8 | 0.367 | 8 | 0 |
Hubei | 0.372 | 10 | 0.304 | 18 | 8 |
Hunan | 0.349 | 12 | 0.311 | 16 | 4 |
Guangxi | 0.325 | 16 | 0.296 | 20 | 4 |
Chongqing | 0.278 | 22 | 0.290 | 21 | 1 |
Sichuan | 0.345 | 13 | 0.286 | 22 | 9 |
Guizhou | 0.245 | 25 | 0.281 | 23 | 2 |
Yunnan | 0.255 | 24 | 0.277 | 24 | 0 |
Tibet | 0.229 | 28 | 0.271 | 25 | 3 |
Shaanxi | 0.267 | 23 | 0.264 | 27 | 4 |
Gansu | 0.204 | 30 | 0.257 | 28 | 2 |
Qinghai | 0.188 | 31 | 0.251 | 29 | 2 |
Ningxia | 0.239 | 26 | 0.231 | 30 | 4 |
Xinjiang | 0.284 | 19 | 0.299 | 19 | 0 |
Area | Region | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eastern region | Beijing | 0.392 | 0.411 | 0.387 | 0.416 | 0.403 | 0.453 | 0.482 | 0.486 | 0.494 | 0.530 |
Tianjin | 0.305 | 0.320 | 0.333 | 0.351 | 0.366 | 0.384 | 0.422 | 0.422 | 0.442 | 0.462 | |
Hebei | 0.259 | 0.279 | 0.296 | 0.312 | 0.325 | 0.337 | 0.356 | 0.348 | 0.357 | 0.401 | |
Liaoning | 0.237 | 0.251 | 0.271 | 0.275 | 0.290 | 0.314 | 0.330 | 0.326 | 0.421 | 0.437 | |
Shanghai | 0.460 | 0.477 | 0.425 | 0.493 | 0.497 | 0.500 | 0.510 | 0.519 | 0.528 | 0.549 | |
Jiangsu | 0.393 | 0.440 | 0.477 | 0.491 | 0.515 | 0.545 | 0.562 | 0.583 | 0.573 | 0.622 | |
Zhejiang | 0.330 | 0.358 | 0.376 | 0.403 | 0.413 | 0.436 | 0.473 | 0.484 | 0.511 | 0.529 | |
Fujian | 0.331 | 0.374 | 0.382 | 0.403 | 0.420 | 0.388 | 0.459 | 0.454 | 0.479 | 0.508 | |
Shandong | 0.377 | 0.411 | 0.436 | 0.445 | 0.449 | 0.477 | 0.511 | 0.510 | 0.519 | 0.534 | |
Guangdong | 0.356 | 0.388 | 0.385 | 0.413 | 0.400 | 0.399 | 0.448 | 0.482 | 0.493 | 0.524 | |
Hainan | 0.265 | 0.320 | 0.301 | 0.360 | 0.364 | 0.380 | 0.395 | 0.422 | 0.444 | 0.452 | |
Central region | Shanxi | 0.245 | 0.248 | 0.261 | 0.266 | 0.279 | 0.290 | 0.306 | 0.299 | 0.303 | 0.326 |
Inner Mongolia | 0.183 | 0.194 | 0.204 | 0.208 | 0.209 | 0.217 | 0.239 | 0.249 | 0.246 | 0.259 | |
Jilin | 0.194 | 0.208 | 0.213 | 0.215 | 0.232 | 0.247 | 0.267 | 0.248 | 0.260 | 0.293 | |
Heilongjiang | 0.217 | 0.229 | 0.253 | 0.272 | 0.270 | 0.287 | 0.299 | 0.310 | 0.322 | 0.336 | |
Anhui | 0.234 | 0.253 | 0.268 | 0.302 | 0.315 | 0.336 | 0.353 | 0.362 | 0.368 | 0.400 | |
Jiangxi | 0.244 | 0.279 | 0.299 | 0.315 | 0.318 | 0.337 | 0.383 | 0.398 | 0.404 | 0.408 | |
Henan | 0.346 | 0.363 | 0.369 | 0.386 | 0.404 | 0.414 | 0.426 | 0.402 | 0.432 | 0.463 | |
Hubei | 0.286 | 0.316 | 0.333 | 0.343 | 0.348 | 0.384 | 0.421 | 0.415 | 0.422 | 0.454 | |
Hunan | 0.271 | 0.289 | 0.295 | 0.315 | 0.335 | 0.374 | 0.394 | 0.385 | 0.392 | 0.443 | |
Guangxi | 0.247 | 0.263 | 0.275 | 0.300 | 0.312 | 0.342 | 0.355 | 0.359 | 0.385 | 0.418 | |
Western region | Chongqing | 0.221 | 0.237 | 0.248 | 0.251 | 0.262 | 0.282 | 0.309 | 0.304 | 0.320 | 0.354 |
Sichuan | 0.268 | 0.294 | 0.312 | 0.321 | 0.329 | 0.345 | 0.363 | 0.390 | 0.405 | 0.431 | |
Guizhou | 0.167 | 0.180 | 0.190 | 0.181 | 0.198 | 0.247 | 0.274 | 0.302 | 0.341 | 0.374 | |
Yunnan | 0.188 | 0.198 | 0.210 | 0.226 | 0.236 | 0.256 | 0.279 | 0.293 | 0.311 | 0.356 | |
Tibet | 0.200 | 0.206 | 0.211 | 0.207 | 0.215 | 0.221 | 0.238 | 0.246 | 0.275 | 0.275 | |
Shaanxi | 0.210 | 0.219 | 0.225 | 0.237 | 0.244 | 0.262 | 0.282 | 0.267 | 0.306 | 0.418 | |
Gansu | 0.172 | 0.187 | 0.176 | 0.189 | 0.193 | 0.203 | 0.225 | 0.221 | 0.231 | 0.250 | |
Qinghai | 0.182 | 0.166 | 0.163 | 0.162 | 0.161 | 0.173 | 0.204 | 0.215 | 0.225 | 0.236 | |
Ningxia | 0.194 | 0.205 | 0.218 | 0.223 | 0.226 | 0.236 | 0.260 | 0.272 | 0.272 | 0.288 | |
Xinjiang | 0.226 | 0.233 | 0.239 | 0.258 | 0.271 | 0.274 | 0.291 | 0.316 | 0.357 | 0.379 | |
Average value | 0.264 | 0.284 | 0.291 | 0.308 | 0.316 | 0.333 | 0.358 | 0.364 | 0.382 | 0.410 |
2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Moran’s I | 0.535 *** | 0.557 *** | 0.585 *** | 0.608 *** | 0.628 *** | 0.643 *** | 0.665 *** | 0.634 *** | 0.575 *** | 0.557 *** |
z-score | 4.819 | 4.971 | 5.204 | 5.383 | 5.57 | 5.703 | 5.85 | 5.602 | 5.092 | 4.967 |
p-value | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Condition and Result | Calibration | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Full Membership | Crossover | Full Non-Membership | |||
Condition | Administrative force | ADM | 1096.59 | 736.27 | 234.78 |
Market force | MAR | 2.2649 | 1.4765 | 0.7837 | |
Labor force | LAB | 586,944.94 | 170,994.07 | 2533.055 | |
Technology force | TEC | 8.7598 | 8.0442 | 6.7118 | |
Cultural force | CUL | 1829.3077 | 1423.5187 | 1049.1165 | |
Result | Rural resilience | RES | 0.5418 | 0.4175 | 0.2624 |
Antecedent Condition | High | Non-High | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consistency | Coverage | Consistency | Coverage | ||
Administrative force | ADM | 0.6826 | 0.6571 | 0.6073 | 0.5892 |
~ADM | 0.5732 | 0.5916 | 0.6725 | 0.6725 | |
Market force | MAR | 0.5635 | 0.6346 | 0.5424 | 0.6156 |
~MAR | 0.6587 | 0.5882 | 0.678 | 0.6101 | |
Labor force | LAB | 0.763 | 0.7565 | 0.5437 | 0.5433 |
~LAB | 0.5395 | 0.5399 | 0.7565 | 0.7628 | |
Technology force | TEC | 0.6289 | 0.5863 | 0.7095 | 0.6666 |
~TEC | 0.6425 | 0.687 | 0.5598 | 0.6032 | |
Cultural force | CUL | 0.7948 | 0.7523 | 0.5881 | 0.5609 |
~CUL | 0.5362 | 0.5637 | 0.7403 | 0.7842 |
Regional Division | High Level | Non-High Level | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Conditional Variables | Labor-Driven | Market–Labor–Technology Linkage-Driven | Cultural-Driven | Market–Labor Absent | Administrative–Market Absent | Cultural Absent | |
H1 | H2 | H3 | H4 | NH1 | NH2 | NH3 | |
Administrative force | 𐤈 | • | 𐤈 | 𐤈 | |||
Market force | 𐤈 | • | |||||
Labor force | 𐤈 | 𐤈 | 𐤈 | ||||
Technology force | 𐤈 | • | • | ||||
Cultural force | • | • | 𐤈 | ||||
Consistency | 0.8681 | 0.8817 | 0.9061 | 0.9130 | 0.9616 | 0.9304 | 0.9610 |
Raw Coverage | 0.4047 | 0.4151 | 0.3498 | 0.3050 | 0.3541 | 0.3953 | 0.3804 |
Unique Coverage | 0.0641 | 0.0583 | 0.0084 | 0.0466 | 0.0212 | 0.0316 | 0.0321 |
Solution Consistency | 0.8380 | 0.9134 | |||||
Solution Coverage | 0.7979 | 0.6775 |
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Yang, M.; Jiao, M.; Zhang, J. Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Influencing Factors of Rural Resilience from the Perspective of Sustainable Rural Development. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12294. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912294
Yang M, Jiao M, Zhang J. Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Influencing Factors of Rural Resilience from the Perspective of Sustainable Rural Development. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(19):12294. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912294
Chicago/Turabian StyleYang, Mei, Mengyun Jiao, and Jinyu Zhang. 2022. "Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Influencing Factors of Rural Resilience from the Perspective of Sustainable Rural Development" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19: 12294. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912294