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Water
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Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century
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Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 15 July 2024 | Viewed by 2265

Special Issue Editors

Dr. João Filipe Santos

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Civil and Environmental Engineering, Polytechnic Institute of Beja, 7800-309 Beja, Portugal
Interests: hydraulics and water resources engineering; hydrology; climate change; risk analysis and extreme hydrological events
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Dr. Nelson Carriço

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Civil Engineering, Polytechnic Institute of Setubal, Barreiro School of Technology, 2839-001 Lavradio, Portugal
Interests: hydraulics and water resources engineering; infrastructure asset management; MCDA; risk management; urban hydraulics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

It is known that climate change will reinforce drought conditions over many regions of the world, necessitating strengthened human resilience.

An integrated drought risk assessment takes into account not only climate-induced changes but also changes occurring due to the exposure and vulnerability of communities and environmental systems to droughts events. To build upon humanity’s climate resilience, we must reduce our exposure and vulnerability to droughts as well as other economic, social and environmental shocks and disasters, which presents a substantial challenge, particularly for populations living in countries with a low level of human development.

As observed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), plausible climate and socioeconomic development pathways (SSPs) have allowed for the formulation of important scenarios in the assessment of future drought risks at local and global scales through the incorporation of population growth, socioeconomic human development and other factors acting as proxies of vulnerability.

This Special Issue is intended to explore the links between human vulnerability, as one of the main risk components of natural hazards, and drought risk assessment methodologies under climate change scenarios, with the aim of contributing to the realization of the SDGs by 2030.

Prof. Dr. João Filipe Santos
Dr. Nelson Carriço
Guest Editors

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • drought risk assessment
  • climate change
  • human and environmental vulnerability
  • resilience building
  • IPCC scenarios

Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

21 pages, 6176 KiB  
Article
Drought Characterization in Croatia Using E-OBS Gridded Data
by João F. Santos, Lidija Tadic, Maria Manuela Portela, Luis Angel Espinosa and Tamara Brleković
Water 2023, 15(21), 3806; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15213806 - 31 Oct 2023
Viewed by 955
Abstract
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world, with huge multi-dimensional impacts. An extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented for continental Croatia based on a meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°), within the [...] Read more.
Droughts are among the major natural hazards that are spreading to many parts of the world, with huge multi-dimensional impacts. An extensive analysis of drought phenomenon is presented for continental Croatia based on a meteorological E-OBS gridded dataset (0.25° × 0.25°), within the period of 1950–2022. The drought events were characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), applied to different time-scales (6 and 12 months), in order to describe the subannual and annual variability of drought. The spatiotemporal patterns of drought are obtained through principal component analysis (PCA) and K-means clustering (KMC) applied to the SPEI field. An areal drought evolution analysis and the changes in the frequency of occurrence of the periods under drought conditions were achieved using a kernel occurrence rate estimator (KORE). The modified Mann–Kendall (MMK) test, coupled with the Sen’s slope estimator test, are applied to the SPEI series in order to quantify the drought trends throughout the country. According to the history drought events and considering the different morphoclimatic characteristics of the study area, the results showed that Croatia could be divided into three different and spatially well-defined regions with specific temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts (central northern, eastern and southern regions). A manifest increase is shown in the percentage of area affected by drought, as well as in the yearly drought occurrences rates, in both central northern and eastern regions, and an evident decrease is shown in the southern region for both 6- and 12-month SPEI time-scales. In the observation of the drought’s temporal characteristics, it was found that downward trends expressing increasing drought severities were strongly significant in northern and eastern regions, while a few significant upward trends were seen in the southern region. From this study, it is possible to obtain a broader view of the historical behaviour of droughts in Croatia, with the results providing useful support for drought risk assessment and decision-making processes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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16 pages, 3841 KiB  
Article
Compound Extremes of Droughts and Pluvials: A Review and Exploration of Spatio-Temporal Characteristics and Associated Risks in the Canadian Prairies
by Elaine Wheaton, Barrie Bonsal and David Sauchyn
Water 2023, 15(19), 3509; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15193509 - 08 Oct 2023
Viewed by 852
Abstract
The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks including significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and [...] Read more.
The Canadian Prairies are associated with high natural hydroclimatic variability including the frequent periodic occurrence of droughts and pluvials. These extremes carry various risks including significant damage to the economy, environment and society. The well-documented level of damage necessitates further risk assessment and planned reductions to vulnerability, particularly in light of a warming climate. A logical starting point involves awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. We focus on the compound occurrence of droughts and pluvials as the risks from this type of event are magnified compared to the hydroclimatic extremes in isolation. Compound droughts and pluvials (CDP) are drought and pluvial events that occur in close succession in time or in close proximity in area. Also, research on CDP is limited even for the worldwide literature. Therefore, the purposes of this paper are to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of CDP, and to provide examples of past occurrences, with a focus on the Canadian Prairies. Since literature from the Prairies is limited, global work is also reviewed. That literature indicates increasing concern and interest in CDP. Relationships between drought and pluvials are also characterized using the SPEI Global Monitor for the Prairies, emphasizing the recent past. Research mostly considers drought and pluvials as separate events in the Prairies, but is integrated here to characterize the relationships of these extremes. The spatiotemporal patterns showed that several of the extreme to record pluvials were found to be closely associated with extreme droughts in the Prairies. The intensities of the extremes and their dry to wet boundaries were described. This is the first research to explore the concept of and to provide examples of CDP for the Prairies and for Canada. Examples of CDP provide insights into the regional hydroclimatic variability. Furthermore, most literature on future projections strongly suggests that this variability is likely to increase, mainly driven by anthropogenic climate change. Therefore, improved methods to characterize and to quantify CDP are required. These findings suggest means of decreasing vulnerability and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is relevant to other regions that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Drought Risk Assessment and Human Vulnerability in the 21st Century)
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Planned Papers

The below list represents only planned manuscripts. Some of these manuscripts have not been received by the Editorial Office yet. Papers submitted to MDPI journals are subject to peer-review.

Title: Risks of compound extremes of drought and pluvials: temporal and spatial characteristics in the Canadian Prairies
Authors: Elaine Wheaton; Barrie Bonsal; David Sauchyn; Darrell Corkal
Affiliation: Elaine Wheaton, University of Saskatchewan; Barrie Bonsal, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Saskatchewan; David Sauchyn, Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative, University of Regina; Darrell Corkal, h2adapt inc.
Abstract: The risks of drought and pluvials are already high on the Canadian Prairies. Much damage to the economy, environment and society is already documented. The current level of damage means that vulnerability must be reduced. A starting point is awareness and information about the changing characteristics of such climate extremes. Our purpose is to synthesize recent literature concerning the risks of droughts and pluvials in the Canadian Prairies. We compare and contrast findings from the Canadian Drought Monitor and other sources to focus on the learnings about those extreme events in the more recent past, focusing on the 2000 to 2020 period. Along with other findings we demonstrate that hydro-climatic variability is very dominant and is likely to worsen. Several examples of periods of both droughts and excessive rainfall are characterized. Surprising findings about the combination of such extremes result. Climate change is a critical driver of the changing characteristics of both drought and pluvials, therefore understanding of this effect is essential. These findings are necessary to demonstrate the paths towards more fully understanding the characteristics and risks of the compound extremes of droughts and pluvials as well as important ways to decrease vulnerability and associated damages. Although the study area is the Canadian Prairies, the work is relevant to other areas that are becoming more vulnerable to increasing risks of and vulnerabilities to such compound extremes. Keywords: droughts, pluvials, excessive moisture, extreme climate events, compound extremes, climate change, risk, vulnerability

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