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Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate...
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Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Hydrology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (10 September 2020) | Viewed by 22799

Special Issue Editor

Dr. William H. Farmer

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
US Geological Survey, Denver, CO, USA
Interests: water resources engineering; statistical hydrology; estimating ungaged streamflows; statistical analysis; computer programming; climate change analysis; crop water modeling

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In recent years, with advances in process modeling and computer resources, there has been a push to develop large-domain models of hydrologic systems to support on-going water resources management. In this special issue, we solicit papers exploring how these large-domain model applications can be used to understand the effects of climate and land use on water availability.

The term ‘water availability’ is intended to capture analyses of all aspects of the hydrologic cycle, considering such components as streamflow, baseflow, groundwater, stream temperature, soil moisture, sediments, and water quality constituents. Large-domain models are designed to characterize hydrologic conditions across large countries or continents (e.g., the United States or Europe). As models are developed and deployed, they are often tuned to characterize a particular aspect of the hydrologic cycle, be it floods, droughts, water quality, or water use. Whether simulating retrospectively or forecasting, these model applications seek to understand what new insights on the hydrologic system these large-extent models provide from a scientific and a management perspective.

This special issue allows us, as a field, a unique opportunity to consider how large-domain applications of models advance the hydrologic sciences and inform water resources management.

Dr. William H. Farmer
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Water is an international peer-reviewed open access semimonthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • Water availability
  • Large-domain models
  • Hydrologic models
  • Water resources management
  • Hydrologic processes
  • Continental models
  • Prediction in ungauged basins

Published Papers (7 papers)

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Research

28 pages, 7685 KiB  
Article
An Analysis of Streamflow Trends in the Southern and Southeastern US from 1950–2015
by Kirk Rodgers, Victor Roland, Anne Hoos, Elena Crowley-Ornelas and Rodney Knight
Water 2020, 12(12), 3345; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12123345 - 29 Nov 2020
Cited by 14 | Viewed by 3016
Abstract
In this article, the mean daily streamflow at 139 streamflow-gaging stations (sites) in the southern and southeastern United States are analyzed for spatial and temporal patterns. One hundred and thirty-nine individual time-series of mean daily streamflow were reduced to five aggregated time series [...] Read more.
In this article, the mean daily streamflow at 139 streamflow-gaging stations (sites) in the southern and southeastern United States are analyzed for spatial and temporal patterns. One hundred and thirty-nine individual time-series of mean daily streamflow were reduced to five aggregated time series of Z scores for clusters of sites with similar temporal variability. These aggregated time-series correlated significantly with a time-series of several climate indices for the period 1950–2015. The mean daily streamflow data were subset into six time periods—starting in 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, and each ending in 2015, to determine how streamflow trends at individual sites acted over time. During the period 1950–2015, mean monthly and seasonal streamflow decreased at many sites based on results from traditional Mann–Kendall trend analyses, as well as results from a new analysis (Quantile-Kendall) that summarizes trends across the full range of streamflows. A trend departure index used to compare results from non-reference with reference sites identified that streamflow trends at 88% of the study sites have been influenced by non-climatic factors (such as land- and water-management practices) and that the majority of these sites were located in Texas, Louisiana, and Georgia. Analysis of the results found that for sites throughout the study area that were influenced primarily by climate rather than human activities, the step increase in streamflow in 1970 documented in previous studies was offset by subsequent monotonic decreases in streamflow between 1970 and 2015. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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20 pages, 6002 KiB  
Article
An Interactive Data Visualization Framework for Exploring Geospatial Environmental Datasets and Model Predictions
by Jeffrey D. Walker, Benjamin H. Letcher, Kirk D. Rodgers, Clint C. Muhlfeld and Vincent S. D’Angelo
Water 2020, 12(10), 2928; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102928 - 20 Oct 2020
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 5191
Abstract
With the rise of large-scale environmental models comes new challenges for how we best utilize this information in research, management and decision making. Interactive data visualizations can make large and complex datasets easier to access and explore, which can lead to knowledge discovery, [...] Read more.
With the rise of large-scale environmental models comes new challenges for how we best utilize this information in research, management and decision making. Interactive data visualizations can make large and complex datasets easier to access and explore, which can lead to knowledge discovery, hypothesis formation and improved understanding. Here, we present a web-based interactive data visualization framework, the Interactive Catchment Explorer (ICE), for exploring environmental datasets and model outputs. Using a client-based architecture, the ICE framework provides a highly interactive user experience for discovering spatial patterns, evaluating relationships between variables and identifying specific locations using multivariate criteria. Through a series of case studies, we demonstrate the application of the ICE framework to datasets and models associated with three separate research projects covering different regions in North America. From these case studies, we provide specific examples of the broader impacts that tools like these can have, including fostering discussion and collaboration among stakeholders and playing a central role in the iterative process of data collection, analysis and decision making. Overall, the ICE framework demonstrates the potential benefits and impacts of using web-based interactive data visualization tools to place environmental datasets and model outputs directly into the hands of stakeholders, managers, decision makers and other researchers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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Graphical abstract

20 pages, 9530 KiB  
Article
Application of the RSPARROW Modeling Tool to Estimate Total Nitrogen Sources to Streams and Evaluate Source Reduction Management Scenarios in the Grande River Basin, Brazil
by Matthew P. Miller, Marcelo L. de Souza, Richard B. Alexander, Lillian G. Sanisaca, Alexandre de Amorim Teixeira and Alison P. Appling
Water 2020, 12(10), 2911; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102911 - 18 Oct 2020
Cited by 6 | Viewed by 3281
Abstract
Large-domain hydrological models are increasingly needed to support water-resource assessment and management in large river basins. Here, we describe results for the first Brazilian application of the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model using a new open-source modeling and interactive decision [...] Read more.
Large-domain hydrological models are increasingly needed to support water-resource assessment and management in large river basins. Here, we describe results for the first Brazilian application of the SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model using a new open-source modeling and interactive decision support system tool (RSPARROW) to quantify the origin, flux, and fate of total nitrogen (TN) in two sub-basins of the Grande River Basin (GRB; 43,000 km2). Land under cultivation for sugar cane, urban land, and point source inputs from wastewater treatment plants was estimated to each contribute approximately 30% of the TN load at the outlet, with pasture land contributing about 10% of the load. Hypothetical assessments of wastewater treatment plant upgrades and the building of new facilities that could treat currently untreated urban runoff suggest that these management actions could potentially reduce loading at the outlet by as much as 20–25%. This study highlights the ability of SPARROW and the RSPARROW mapping tool to assist with the development and evaluation of management actions aimed at reducing nutrient pollution and eutrophication. The freely available RSPARROW modeling tool provides new opportunities to improve understanding of the sources, delivery, and transport of water-quality contaminants in watersheds throughout the world. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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30 pages, 46978 KiB  
Article
General Assessment of the Operational Utility of National Water Model Reservoir Inflows for the Bureau of Reclamation Facilities
by Francesca Viterbo, Laura Read, Kenneth Nowak, Andrew W. Wood, David Gochis, Robert Cifelli and Mimi Hughes
Water 2020, 12(10), 2897; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12102897 - 16 Oct 2020
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2807
Abstract
This work investigates the utility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Model (NWM) for water management operations by assessing the total inflow into a select number of reservoirs across the Central and Western U.S. Total inflow is generally an unmeasured [...] Read more.
This work investigates the utility of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Water Model (NWM) for water management operations by assessing the total inflow into a select number of reservoirs across the Central and Western U.S. Total inflow is generally an unmeasured quantity, though critically important for anticipating both floods and shortages in supply over a short-term (hourly) to sub-seasonal (monthly) time horizon. The NWM offers such information at over 5000 reservoirs across the U.S., however, its skill at representing inflow processes is largely unknown. The goal of this work is to understand the drivers for both well performing and poor performing NWM inflows such that managers can get a sense of the capability of NWM to capture natural hydrologic processes and in some cases, the effects of upstream management. We analyzed the inflows for a subset of Bureau of Reclamation (BoR) reservoirs within the NWM over the long-term simulations (retrospectively, seven years) and for short, medium and long-range operational forecast cycles over a one-year period. We utilize ancillary reservoir characteristics (e.g., physical and operational) to explain variation in inflow performance across the selected reservoirs. In general, we find that NWM inflows in snow-driven basins outperform those in rain-driven, and that assimilated basin area, upstream management, and calibrated basin area all influence the NWM’s ability to reproduce daily reservoir inflows. The final outcome of this work proposes a framework for how the NWM reservoir inflows can be useful for reservoir management, linking reservoir purposes with the forecast cycles and retrospective simulations. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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20 pages, 5472 KiB  
Article
Comparing Trends in Modeled and Observed Streamflows at Minimally Altered Basins in the United States
by Glenn A. Hodgkins, Robert W. Dudley, Amy M. Russell and Jacob H. LaFontaine
Water 2020, 12(6), 1728; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061728 - 17 Jun 2020
Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2545
Abstract
We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984 to 2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at [...] Read more.
We compared modeled and observed streamflow trends from 1984 to 2016 using five statistical transfer models and one deterministic, distributed-parameter, process-based model, for 26 flow metrics at 502 basins in the United States that are minimally influenced by development. We also looked at a measure of overall model fit and average bias. A higher percentage of basins, for all models, had relatively low trend differences between modeled and observed mean/median flows than for very high or low flows such as the annual 1-day high and 7-day low flows. Mean-flow metrics also had the largest percentage of basins with relatively good overall model fit and low bias. The five statistical transfer models performed better at more basins than the process-based model. The overall model fit for all models, for mean and/or high flows, was correlated with one or more measures of basin precipitation or aridity. Our study and previous studies generally observed good model performance for high flows up to 90th or 95th percentile flows. However, we found model performance was substantially worse for more extreme flows, including 99th percentile and annual 1-day high flows, indicating the importance of including more extreme high flows in analyses of model performance. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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24 pages, 4999 KiB  
Article
Baseline Conditions and Projected Future Hydro-Climatic Change in National Parks in the Conterminous United States
by William Battaglin, Lauren Hay, David J. Lawrence, Greg McCabe and Parker Norton
Water 2020, 12(6), 1704; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12061704 - 15 Jun 2020
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 2960
Abstract
The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both [...] Read more.
The National Park Service (NPS) manages hundreds of parks in the United States, and many contain important aquatic ecosystems and/or threatened and endangered aquatic species vulnerable to hydro-climatic change. More effective management of park resources under future hydro-climatic uncertainty requires information on both baseline conditions and the range of projected future conditions. A monthly water balance model was used to assess baseline (1981–1999) conditions and a range of projected future hydro-climatic conditions in 374 NPS parks. General circulation model outputs representing 214 future climate simulations were used to drive the model. Projected future changes in air temperature (T), precipitation (p), and runoff (R) are expressed as departures from historical baselines. Climate simulations indicate increasing T by 2030 for all parks with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases of 1.67 °C or more in 50% of parks. Departures in 2030 p indicate a mix of mostly increases and some decreases, with 50th percentile simulations projecting increases in p in more than 70% of parks. Departures in R for 2030 are mostly decreases, with the 50th percentile simulations projecting decreases in R in more than 50% of parks in all seasons except winter. Hence, in many NPS parks, R is projected to decrease even when p is projected to increase because of increasing T in all parks. Projected changes in future hydro-climatic conditions can also be assessed for individual parks, and Rocky Mountain National Park and Congaree National Park are used as examples. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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17 pages, 2761 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of Uncertainty Intervals for Daily, Statistically Derived Streamflow Estimates at Ungaged Basins across the Continental U.S.
by Sara B. Levin and William H. Farmer
Water 2020, 12(5), 1390; https://doi.org/10.3390/w12051390 - 14 May 2020
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2377
Abstract
Streamflow estimation methods that transfer information from an index gage to an ungauged site are commonly used; however, uncertainty in daily streamflow estimates are often not adequately quantified. In this study, daily streamflow was simulated at 1331 validation streamgauges across the continental United [...] Read more.
Streamflow estimation methods that transfer information from an index gage to an ungauged site are commonly used; however, uncertainty in daily streamflow estimates are often not adequately quantified. In this study, daily streamflow was simulated at 1331 validation streamgauges across the continental United States using four transfer-based streamflow estimation methods. Empirical 95 percent uncertainty intervals were computed for estimated daily streamflows. Uncertainty intervals were evaluated for reliability, sharpness, and overall ability to accurately quantify the uncertainty inherent in the estimated daily streamflow. Uncertainty intervals performed reliably in the Eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest regions of the country, containing a median of 96 and 99 percent of the observed values respectively. Uncertainty intervals were less reliable in the Great Plains and arid Southwest regions, where uncertainty intervals contained a median of 83 and 94 percent of the observed streamflows respectively. Uncertainty interval performance was correlated with gage density and hydrologic similarity near the validation site, as well as the aridity and baseflow indices at the site. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Using Large-Domain Hydrologic Modeling to Understand the Effects of Climate and Land Use on Water Availability)
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