Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Data and Methods
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data Collection
2.2.1. Species Distribution Data
2.2.2. Climatic and Environmental Variable Data
2.3. Application and Evaluation of the MaxEnt Model
2.4. The Migration Trend of the Suitable Region’s Centroids
3. Results and Analysis
3.1. Assessment of the Importance of Environmental Variables
3.2. Potentially Suitable Distribution Areas under Current Climate Conditions
3.3. Suitable Distribution Areas and Changes in Future Climate Scenarios
3.4. Coordination of Ecologically Suitable Areas
4. Discussion
4.1. Evaluation of Model Accuracy
4.2. Main Environmental Factors That Affect the Distribution
4.3. Migration and Prospect for Future Distribution
4.4. Shortcomings of the Model
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
- Hashima, W.A.; Elhawary, I.A. The Globalization of the Egyptian Cotton Spinning Industry via Engineering Units. Part 2: The Impact of the Latest Generation of Egyptian Cotton on the Quality Factor of Its Yarn. Alex. Eng. J. 2022, 61, 4331–4339. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zhao, N.; Wang, W.; Grover, C.E.; Jiang, K.; Pan, Z.; Guo, B.; Zhu, J.; Su, Y.; Wang, M.; Nie, H.; et al. Genomic and GWAS Analyses Demonstrate Phylogenomic Relationships of Gossypium Barbadense in China and Selection for Fibre Length, Lint Percentage and Fusarium Wilt Resistance. Plant Biotechnol. J. 2022, 20, 691–710. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Qin, G.; Zhao, N.; Wang, W.; Wang, M.; Zhu, J.; Yang, J.; Lin, F.; Huang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Min, L.; et al. Glyphosate-Induced Abscisic Acid Accumulation Causes Male Sterility in Sea Island Cotton. Plants 2023, 12, 1058. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Smith, C.W.; Hague, S.; Hequet, E.F.; Jones, D. TAM 04 O-16L Long-Staple Upland Cotton with Improved Strength. J Plant Regist 2011, 5, 109–112. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- D’Eeckenbrugge, G.C.; Lacape, J.M. Distribution and Differentiation of Wild, Feral, and Cultivated Populations of Perennial Upland Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean. PLoS ONE 2014, 9, e107458. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brubaker, C.L.; Bourland, F.M.; Wendel, J.F. The Origin and Domestication of Cotton; John Wiley & Sons Inc.: Hoboken, NJ, USA, 1999; Volume 4. [Google Scholar]
- Hosseini Ravandi, S.A.; Valizadeh, M. Properties of Fibers and Fabrics That Contribute to Human Comfort. In Improving Comfort in Clothing; Elsevier: Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 2011; pp. 61–78. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zeng, J.; Yao, D.; Luo, M.; Ding, L.; Wang, Y.; Yan, X.; Ye, S.; Wang, C.; Wu, Y.; Zhang, J.; et al. Fiber-Specific Increase of Carotenoid Content Promotes Cotton Fiber Elongation by Increasing Abscisic Acid and Ethylene Biosynthesis. Crop J. 2023, 11, 774–784. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shi, X.; Wang, C.; Zhao, J.; Wang, K.; Chen, F.; Chu, Q. Increasing Inconsistency between Climate Suitability and Production of Cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) in China. Ind. Crops Prod. 2021, 171, 171. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, Y.; Geng, X.; Hao, Z.; Zheng, J. Changes in Climate Extremes in Central Asia under 1.5 and 2◦ c Global Warming and Their Impacts on Agricultural Productions. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 1076. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chao, C.; Pang, Y.; Lizhen, Z. Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton Yield in China from 1961 to 2010 Based on Provincial Data. J. Meteorol. Res. 2015, 153, 825–836. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Harold, J.; Lorenzoni, I.; Shipley, T.F.; Coventry, K.R. Communication of IPCC Visuals: IPCC Authors’ Views and Assessments of Visual Complexity. Clim. Chang. 2020, 158, 255–270. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dai, Y.; Yang, J.; Hu, W.; Zahoor, R.; Chen, B.; Zhao, W.; Meng, Y.; Zhou, Z. Simulative Global Warming Negatively Affects Cotton Fiber Length through Shortening Fiber Rapid Elongation Duration. Sci. Rep. 2017, 7, 9264. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Luo, Q.; Bange, M.; Clancy, L. Cotton Crop Phenology in a New Temperature Regime. Ecol. Model. 2014, 285, 22–29. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sun, J.; Cheng, G.W.; Li, W.P. Meta-Analysis of Relationships between Environmental Factors and Aboveground Biomass in the Alpine Grassland on the Tibetan Plateau. Biogeosciences 2013, 10, 1707–1715. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Brown, J.L.; Bennett, J.R.; French, C.M. SDMtoolbox 2.0: The next Generation Python-Based GIS Toolkit for Landscape Genetic, Biogeographic and Species Distribution Model Analyses. PeerJ 2017, 5, e4095. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Li, S.Y.; Miao, L.J.; Jiang, Z.H.; Wang, G.J.; Gnyawali, K.R.; Zhang, J.; Zhang, H.; Fang, K.; He, Y.; Li, C. Projected Drought Conditions in Northwest China with CMIP6 Models under Combined SSPs and RCPs for 2015–2099. Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 2020, 11, 210–217. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Austin, M. Species Distribution Models and Ecological Theory: A Critical Assessment and Some Possible New Approaches. Ecol. Model. 2007, 200, 1–19. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Heumann, B.W.; Walsh, S.J.; Verdery, A.M.; McDaniel, P.M.; Rindfuss, R.R. Land Suitability Modeling Using a Geographic Socio-Environmental Niche-Based Approach: A Case Study from Northeastern Thailand. Ann. Assoc. Am. Geogr. 2013, 103, 764–784. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Phillips, S.J.; Anderson, R.P.; Dudík, M.; Schapire, R.E.; Blair, M.E. Opening the Black Box: An Open-Source Release of Maxent. Ecography 2017, 40, 887–893. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Lobell, D.B.; Schlenker, W.; Costa-Roberts, J. Climate Trends and Global Crop Production since 1980. Science 2011, 333, 616–620. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Dai, J.; Dong, H. Intensive Cotton Farming Technologies in China: Achievements, Challenges and Countermeasures. Field Crops Res. 2014, 155, 99–110. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wendel, J.F.; Brubaker, C.L.; Seelanan, T. The Origin and Evolution of Gossypium. In Physiology of Cotton; Springer: Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 2010; pp. 1–18. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yin, S.Y.; Wang, T.; Hua, W.; Miao, J.P.; Gao, Y.Q.; Fu, Y.H.; Matei, D.; Tyrlis, E.; Chen, D. Mid-Summer Surface Air Temperature and Its Internal Variability over China at 1.5 °C and 2 °C Global Warming. Adv. Clim. Chang. Res. 2020, 11, 185–197. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Verbruggen, H.; Tyberghein, L.; Belton, G.S.; Mineur, F.; Jueterbock, A.; Hoarau, G.; Gurgel, C.F.D.; De Clerck, O. Improving Transferability of Introduced Species’ Distribution Models: New Tools to Forecast the Spread of a Highly Invasive Seaweed. PLoS ONE 2013, 8, e68337. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Zhong, R.; Tian, F.; Yang, P.; Yi, Q. Planting and Irrigation Methods for Cotton in Southern Xinjiang, China. Irrig. Drain. 2016, 65, 461–468. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Fick, S.E.; Hijmans, R.J. WorldClim 2: New 1-Km Spatial Resolution Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas. Int. J. Climatol. 2017, 37, 4302–4315. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Riahi, K.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kriegler, E.; Edmonds, J.; O’Neill, B.C.; Fujimori, S.; Bauer, N.; Calvin, K.; Dellink, R.; Fricko, O.; et al. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Their Energy, Land Use, and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Implications: An Overview. Glob. Environ. Chang. 2017, 42, 153–168. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Phillips, S.J.; Dudík, M.; Phillips, S.J. Modeling of Species Distributions with Maxent: New Extensions and a Comprehensive Evaluation. Ecography 2008, 31, 161–175. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shi, X.; Wang, J.; Zhang, L.; Chen, S.; Zhao, A.; Ning, X.; Fan, G.; Wu, N.; Zhang, L.; Wang, Z. Prediction of the Potentially Suitable Areas of Litsea Cubeba in China Based on Future Climate Change Using the Optimized MaxEnt Model. Ecol. Indic. 2023, 148, 110093. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Cui, X.; Wang, W.; Yang, X.; Li, S.; Qin, S.; Rong, J. Potential Distribution of Wild Camellia Oleifera Based on Ecological Niche Modeling. Biodivers. Sci. 2016, 24, 1117–1128. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, J.; Chang, H.; Liu, T.; Zhang, C. The Potential Geographical Distribution of Haloxylon across Central Asia under Climate Change in the 21st Century. Agric. Meteorol. 2019, 275, 243–254. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Zeng, Y.; Low, B.W.; Yeo, D.C.J. Novel Methods to Select Environmental Variables in MaxEnt: A Case Study Using Invasive Crayfish. Ecol. Model. 2016, 341, 5–13. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Liu, G.; Mai, J. Habitat Shifts of Jatropha curcas L. in the Asia-Pacific Region under Climate Change Scenarios. Energy 2022, 251, 123885. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Swets, J.A. Measuring the Accuracy of Diagnostic Systems. Science 1988, 240, 1285–1293. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Yan, H.; He, J.; Xu, X.; Yao, X.; Wang, G.; Tang, L.; Feng, L.; Zou, L.; Gu, X.; Qu, Y.; et al. Prediction of Potentially Suitable Distributions of Codonopsis Pilosula in China Based on an Optimized MaxEnt Model. Front. Ecol. Evol. 2021, 9, 773396. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Teichmann, C.; Jacob, D.; Remedio, A.R.; Remke, T.; Buntemeyer, L.; Hoffmann, P.; Kriegsmann, A.; Lierhammer, L.; Bülow, K.; Weber, T.; et al. Assessing Mean Climate Change Signals in the Global CORDEX-CORE Ensemble. Clim. Dyn. 2021, 57, 1269–1292. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vautard, R.; Kadygrov, N.; Iles, C.; Boberg, F.; Buonomo, E.; Bülow, K.; Coppola, E.; Corre, L.; van Meijgaard, E.; Nogherotto, R.; et al. Evaluation of the Large EURO-CORDEX Regional Climate Model Ensemble. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 2021, 126, e2019JD032344. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Chen, X.; Qi, Z.; Gui, D.; Gu, Z.; Ma, L.; Zeng, F.; Li, L. Simulating Impacts of Climate Change on Cotton Yield and Water Requirement Using RZWQM2. Agric. Water Manag. 2019, 222, 231–241. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Li, N.; Lin, H.; Wang, T.; Li, Y.; Liu, Y.; Chen, X.; Hu, X. Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Growth and Yields in Xinjiang, China. Field Crops Res. 2020, 247, 107590. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Yang, Y.; Yang, Y.; Han, S.; Macadam, I.; Liu, D.L. Prediction of Cotton Yield and Water Demand under Climate Change and Future Adaptation Measures. Agric. Water Manag. 2014, 144, 42–53. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Tao, F.; Xiao, D.; Zhang, S.; Zhang, Z.; Rötter, R.P. Wheat Yield Benefited from Increases in Minimum Temperature in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China in the Past Three Decades. Agric. Meteorol. 2017, 239, 1–14. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Aliani, H.; BabaieKafaky, S.; Saffari, A.; Monavari, S.M. Land Evaluation for Ecotourism Development—An Integrated Approach Based on FUZZY, WLC, and ANP Methods. Int. J. Environ. Sci. Technol. 2017, 14, 1999–2008. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Vahidi, M.J.; Behdani, M.A.; Servati, M.; Naderi, M. Fuzzy-Based Models’ Performance on Qualitative and Quantitative Land Suitability Evaluation for Cotton Cultivation in Sarayan County, South Khorasan Province, Iran. Environ. Monit. Assess. 2023, 195, 488. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed]
- Conaty, W.C.; Burke, J.J.; Mahan, J.R.; Neilsen, J.E.; Sutton, B.G. Determining the Optimum Plant Temperature of Cotton Physiology and Yield to Improve Plant-Based Irrigation Scheduling. Crop Sci. 2012, 52, 1828–1836. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Shkolnik, I.M.; Pigol’tsina, G.B.; Efimov, S.V. Agriculture in the Arid Regions of Eurasia and Global Warming: RCM Ensemble Projections for the Middle of the 21st Century. Russ. Meteorol. Hydrol. 2019, 44, 540–547. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Mai, J.; Liu, G. Modeling and Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Cotton-Suitable Habitats in the Central Asian Arid Zone. Ind. Crops Prod. 2023, 191, 115838. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
Variables | Description | Units | |
---|---|---|---|
Climatic variables (19) | Bio1 | Annual Mean temperature (°C) | °C |
Bio2 | Mean Diurnal Range (Mean of monthly(Max temp–min temp)) (°C) | °C | |
Bio3 | Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) (×100) | – | |
Bio4 | Temperature Seasonality (standard Deviation × 100) (Coefficient of Variation) | °C | |
Bio5 | Max Temperature of Warmest Month (°C) | °C | |
Bio6 | Min Temperature of Coldest Month (°C) | °C | |
Bio7 | Temperature Annual Range (Bio5–Bio6) (°C) | °C | |
Bio8 | Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter (°C) | °C | |
Bio9 | Mean Temperature of Driest Quarter (°C) | °C | |
Bio10 | Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (°C) | °C | |
Bio11 | Mean Temperature of Coldest Quarter (°C) | °C | |
Bio12 | Annual Precipitation (mm) | mm | |
Bio13 | Precipitation of Wettest Month (mm) | mm | |
Bio14 | Precipitation of Driest Month (mm) | mm | |
Bio15 | Precipitation Seasonality (Coefficient of Variation) | – | |
Bio16 | Precipitation of Wettest Quarter (mm) | mm | |
Bio17 | Precipitation of Driest Quarter (mm) | mm | |
Bio18 | Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (mm) | mm | |
Bio19 | Precipitation of Coldest Quarter (mm) | mm | |
Terrain variables (2) | Asp | Aspect (°) | ° |
Slo | Slope (%) | % | |
Soil variables (6) | T_PH | pH value | 1 |
T_OC | Organic carbon content (%) | % | |
T_texture | Soil texture | code | |
T_sand | Sand content (%wt.) | %wt. | |
T_CaCO3 | Carbonate content (%wt.) | % | |
T_ece_soil | Soil cation-exchange capacity (mmol/kg) | mmol/kg |
Variables | Contribution Percent (%) | Permutation Importance (%) |
---|---|---|
Bio6 | 19.9 | 0.8 |
Bio5 | 13.8 | 14.1 |
Bio2 | 8.5 | 13.7 |
Bio17 | 8.4 | 0.1 |
T_sand | 7.2 | 17.8 |
Bio19 | 6.4 | 8.3 |
T_OC | 4.6 | 1.6 |
T_CaCO3 | 4.1 | 6.7 |
Bio3 | 3.6 | 4.2 |
T_cec_soil | 3.4 | 4.8 |
Disclaimer/Publisher’s Note: The statements, opinions and data contained in all publications are solely those of the individual author(s) and contributor(s) and not of MDPI and/or the editor(s). MDPI and/or the editor(s) disclaim responsibility for any injury to people or property resulting from any ideas, methods, instructions or products referred to in the content. |
© 2023 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Li, L.; Wu, H.; Gao, Y.; Zhang, S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies 2023, 4, 654-670. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040043
Li L, Wu H, Gao Y, Zhang S. Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China. Ecologies. 2023; 4(4):654-670. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040043
Chicago/Turabian StyleLi, Lingling, Hongqi Wu, Yimin Gao, and Sance Zhang. 2023. "Predicting Ecologically Suitable Areas of Cotton Cultivation Using the MaxEnt Model in Xinjiang, China" Ecologies 4, no. 4: 654-670. https://doi.org/10.3390/ecologies4040043