Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
3. Materials and Methods
3.1. Data
3.2. Econometric Modeling
3.3. FMOLS Long-Run Estimator
4. Results and Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Hebei Province | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
Mean | 3.1027 | 1.0793 | 2.6475 | 2.4727 | 3.9040 | 3.3885 | 3.4696 |
Median | 3.0969 | 1.0779 | 2.6492 | 2.4830 | 3.8975 | 3.3859 | 3.4767 |
Maximum | 3.1772 | 1.1205 | 2.7955 | 2.5258 | 4.0454 | 3.4415 | 3.5288 |
Minimum | 3.0081 | 1.0338 | 2.4567 | 2.3438 | 3.6371 | 3.3347 | 3.4105 |
Std. Dev. | 0.0515 | 0.0235 | 0.0839 | 0.0444 | 0.1032 | 0.0272 | 0.0387 |
Skewness | −0.1277 | −0.0406 | −0.3541 | −0.9106 | −0.6792 | 0.1607 | −0.1323 |
Kurtosis | 1.8645 | 2.1997 | 2.6445 | 3.6768 | 3.1674 | 2.8598 | 1.5297 |
J-B | 1.4673 | 0.7008 | 0.6804 | 4.0902 | 2.0299 | 0.1332 | 2.4176 |
Prob. | 0.4801 | 0.7043 | 0.7115 | 0.1293 | 0.3624 | 0.9355 | 0.2985 |
Obs. | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
Henan Province | |||||||
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
Mean | 3.4487 | 1.1764 | 2.8157 | 2.7334 | 3.8913 | 3.7184 | 3.6723 |
Median | 3.4766 | 1.1752 | 2.8199 | 2.7675 | 3.9574 | 3.7216 | 3.6727 |
Maximum | 3.5743 | 1.2103 | 2.9511 | 2.8549 | 4.0685 | 3.7589 | 3.7319 |
Minimum | 3.2440 | 1.1439 | 2.6183 | 2.5081 | 3.4935 | 3.6813 | 3.5766 |
Std. Dev. | 0.0966 | 0.0158 | 0.0917 | 0.1129 | 0.1639 | 0.0288 | 0.0441 |
Skewness | −0.3490 | −0.0922 | −0.4660 | −0.5676 | −0.9815 | 0.0464 | −0.5964 |
Kurtosis | 1.9237 | 2.6353 | 2.3330 | 1.9491 | 2.8955 | 1.4106 | 2.5309 |
J-B | 1.7827 | 0.1809 | 1.4228 | 2.5924 | 4.1870 | 2.7458 | 1.7800 |
Prob. | 0.4100 | 0.9135 | 0.4909 | 0.2735 | 0.1232 | 0.2533 | 0.4106 |
Obs. | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
Shandong Province | |||||||
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
Mean | 3.3183 | 1.1379 | 2.7570 | 2.6420 | 3.9461 | 3.5722 | 3.5979 |
Median | 3.3215 | 1.1386 | 2.7671 | 2.6487 | 3.9937 | 3.5792 | 3.6005 |
Maximum | 3.4097 | 1.1643 | 2.9106 | 2.6992 | 4.1255 | 3.6110 | 3.6511 |
Minimum | 3.1895 | 1.1093 | 2.5093 | 2.5590 | 3.6038 | 3.4724 | 3.5520 |
Std. Dev. | 0.0652 | 0.0163 | 0.0922 | 0.0389 | 0.1504 | 0.0378 | 0.0352 |
Skewness | −0.5563 | −0.0943 | −0.6423 | −0.5870 | −0.9727 | −1.0561 | 0.1103 |
Kurtosis | 2.4971 | 2.0359 | 3.4293 | 2.2740 | 2.8985 | 3.4102 | 1.4679 |
J-B | 1.6152 | 1.0454 | 1.9874 | 2.0641 | 4.1115 | 5.0157 | 2.5956 |
Prob. | 0.4459 | 0.5929 | 0.3701 | 0.3562 | 0.1279 | 0.0814 | 0.2731 |
Obs. | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 |
Hebei Province | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
LWP | 1.0000 | ||||||
LTEMP | 0.6897 *** | 1.0000 | |||||
LRF | 0.3649 * | 0.1626 | 1.0000 | ||||
LFER | 0.5910 *** | 0.4553 ** | 0.2603 | 1.0000 | |||
LPC | 0.3733 * | 0.3439 * | 0.1293 | 0.9014 | 1.0000 | ||
LWA | −0.0362 | −0.1602 | −0.3598 * | −0.3973 ** | −0.4116 ** | 1.0000 | |
LLF | 0.6651 ** | 0.3895 ** | 0.4921 ** | 0.8690 *** | 0.7928 *** | −0.4726 ** | 1.0000 |
Henan Province | |||||||
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
LWP | 1.0000 | ||||||
LTEMP | 0.5545 *** | 1.0000 | |||||
LRF | 0.1796 | −0.1576 | 1.0000 | ||||
LFER | 0.9509 *** | 0.4881 ** | 0.2164 | 1.0000 | |||
LPC | 0.9201 *** | 0.4610 ** | 0.1996 | 0.9793 *** | 1.0000 | ||
LWA | 0.9520 *** | 0.6116 *** | 0.2225 | 0.8954 *** | 0.8180 *** | 1.0000 | |
LLF | 0.8656 *** | 0.5235 *** | 0.1868 | 0.8916 *** | 0.8873 *** | 0.7996 *** | 1.0000 |
Shandong Province | |||||||
LWP | LTEMP | LRF | LFER | LPC | LWA | LLF | |
LWP | 1.0000 | ||||||
LTEMP | 0.5323 *** | 1.0000 | |||||
LRF | 0.3144 | 0.0439 | 1.0000 | ||||
LFER | −0.1036 | 0.1261 | 0.0995 | 1.0000 | |||
LPC | 0.2986 | 0.4270 ** | 0.3541 * | 0.7304 *** | 1.0000 | ||
LWA | 0.8281 *** | 0.3793 ** | −0.048 | −0.4079 ** | −0.144 | 1.0000 | |
LLF | 0.7342 *** | 0.5986 *** | 0.4947 ** | 0.3109 | 0.8066 *** | 0.3404 * | 1.0000 |
Hebei Province | Henan Province | Shandong Province | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rank | TS | Rank | TS | Rank | TS |
None * | 242.8063 (0.0000) | None * | 250.6836 (0.0000) | None * | 245.8051 (0.0000) |
At most 1 * | 151.8709 (0.0000) | At most 1 * | 143.9006 (0.0000) | At most 1 * | 165.5126 (0.0000) |
At most 2 * | 91.0448 (0.0004) | At most 2 * | 98.4322 (0.0001) | At most 2 * | 95.6523 (0.0001) |
At most 3 * | 54.7745 (0.0098) | At most 3 * | 59.4932 (0.0028) | At most 3 * | 60.6158 (0.0020) |
At most 4 | 24.8771 (0.1659) | At most 4 * | 34.6498 (0.0128) | At most 4 | 29.5732 (0.0531) |
At most 5 | 6.4268 (0.6451) | At most 5 | 13.2864 (0.1047) | At most 5 | 14.3444 (0.0740) |
At most 6 | 0.0618 (0.8036) | At most 6 | 3.6392 (0.0564) | At most 6 | 3.8247 (0.0505) |
Variables | Hebei Province | Henan Province | Shandong Province | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Coefficient | Prob. | Coefficient | Prob. | Coefficient | Prob. | |
LTEMP | 1.1600 *** | 0.0000 | −0.5129 * | 0.0929 | −0.0701 | 0.7446 |
LRF | 0.0136 | 0.8277 | −0.0576 | 0.1387 | 0.0823 * | 0.0522 |
LFER | 0.1726 | 0.5623 | −0.6117 ** | 0.0325 | 0.2917 * | 0.0695 |
LPC | −0.3626 *** | 0.0009 | 0.4885 *** | 0.0037 | −0.1421 * | 0.0980 |
LWA | 0.5805 *** | 0.0019 | 2.9805 *** | 0.0000 | 1.1690 *** | 0.0000 |
LLF | 1.3669 *** | 0.0000 | 0.2161 | 0.1962 | 0.2351 | 0.7447 |
C | −3.9019 *** | 0.0001 | −7.8904 *** | 0.0000 | −2.1196 | 0.3335 |
R2 | 0.8061 | 0.9722 | 0.9332 | |||
Adj-R2 | 0.7415 | 0.9630 | 0.9058 |
Hebei Province | Henan Province | Shandong Province | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DOLS | CCR | DOLS | CCR | DOLS | CCR | |
Variables | Coefficient | Coefficient | Coefficient | Coefficient | Coefficient | Coefficient |
LTEMP | 1.3956 *** (0.0003) | 1.3629 *** (0.0000) | −0.2405 (0.4173) | −0.6182 (0.1652) | −0.1411 (0.7269) | −0.0961 (0.4601) |
LRF | 0.0837 (0.4661) | 0.0293 (0.6728) | −0.0107 (0.8369) | −0.0187 (0.7913) | 0.4315 * (0.0791) | 0.1276 *** (0.0054) |
LFER | 0.2372 (0.5224) | 0.1416 (0.5718) | −0.5957 * (0.0900) | −0.7901 ** (0.0292) | 0.1267 (0.7971) | 0.3789 *** (0.0033) |
LPC | −0.2898 ** (0.0213) | −0.3205 *** (0.0002) | 0.1385 (0.4038) | 0.5703 *** (0.0023) | 0.0943 (0.7438) | −0.1125 * (0.0580) |
LWA | 0.5525 *** (0.0038) | 0.5663 *** (0.0000) | 2.2683 ** (0.0167) | 3.1978 *** (0.0000) | 1.6290 ** (0.0153) | 1.4074 *** (0.0000) |
LLF | 1.0557 *** (0.0081) | 1.2416 *** (0.0000) | −0.2059 (0.4506) | 0.2741 (0.1504) | −0.4386 (0.7924) | −0.8140 * (0.0798) |
C | −3.6129 *** (0.0016) | −3.7710 *** (0.0000) | −2.9953 (0.3278) | −8.7276 *** (0.0000) | −2.6588 (0.5218) | 0.3107 (0.8046) |
R2 | 0.9402 | 0.7980 | 0.9922 | 0.9662 | 0.9881 | 0.9251 |
Adj-R2 | 0.8805 | 0.7307 | 0.9814 | 0.9549 | 0.9454 | 0.8943 |
Null Hypothesis: | Hebei Province | Henan Province | Shandong Province | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
F-Statistic | Prob. | F-Statistic | Prob. | F-Statistic | Prob. | |
LTEMP LWP | 0.32014 | 0.7299 | 0.48642 | 0.4928 | 6.9 × 10−5 | 0.9934 |
LOGWP LTEMP | 3.85467 ** | 0.0393 | 7.70193 ** | 0.0110 | 6.21589 ** | 0.0207 |
LRF LOGWP | 14.5460 *** | 0.0001 | 11.2664 *** | 0.0029 | 12.7836 *** | 0.0017 |
LWP LRF | 5.86390 ** | 0.0104 | 2.30976 | 0.1428 | 1.31051 | 0.2646 |
LFER LWP | 14.0077 *** | 0.0002 | 5.55914 ** | 0.0277 | 1.38081 | 0.2525 |
LWP LFER | 11.1690 *** | 0.0006 | 1.33921 | 0.2596 | 14.7157 *** | 0.0009 |
LPC LWP | 0.34197 | 0.7147 | 0.68055 | 0.4183 | 2.40316 | 0.1354 |
LWP LPC | 1.18261 | 0.3280 | 0.09899 | 0.7560 | 0.30692 | 0.5852 |
LWA LWP | 2.59154 | 0.1011 | 3.89070 * | 0.0613 | 7.44369 ** | 0.0123 |
LOGWP LWA | 1.66343 | 0.2159 | 4.21314 * | 0.0522 | 11.3607 *** | 0.0028 |
LLF LWP | 1.83122 | 0.1874 | 0.00149 | 0.9695 | 4.15717 * | 0.0537 |
LWP LLF | 0.25914 | 0.7744 | 2.30602 | 0.1431 | 0.15467 | 0.6979 |
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Zhang, H.; Tang, Y.; Chandio, A.A.; Sargani, G.R.; Ankrah Twumasi, M. Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19, 12341. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912341
Zhang H, Tang Y, Chandio AA, Sargani GR, Ankrah Twumasi M. Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022; 19(19):12341. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912341
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhang, Huaquan, Yashuang Tang, Abbas Ali Chandio, Ghulam Raza Sargani, and Martinson Ankrah Twumasi. 2022. "Measuring the Effects of Climate Change on Wheat Production: Evidence from Northern China" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 19: 12341. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph191912341