Mortality of Lithuanian Population Over 2 Decades of Independence: Critical Points and Contribution of Major Causes of Death

The aim of the study was to analyze trends in overall mortality and mortality from major causes of death, detect differences in cut points, and estimate the contribution of the major causes of death to the changes in overall mortality throughout 2 decades of independence in Lithuania (1991–2000 and 2001–2010).
Material and Methods. Overall mortality and mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, and external causes were analyzed for the periods of 1991–2000 and 2001–2010. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify the best-fitting points wherever a statistically significant change in mortality occurred, and analysis of components was applied for the assessment of the contribution of major causes of death.
Results. The 1991–1994 period was identified as the most negative in terms of increasing mortality from all major causes of death, while the 2007–2010 period was most favorable, when the most significant decline in overall mortality was observed (4.84% per year for males and 4.41% per year for females). External causes contributed most to the growing overall mortality in 1991–1994 both for males and females (37.20% and 25.29%, respectively). Since 2007, all major causes contributed positively to the declining overall mortality of the Lithuanian population. The most significant contribution was made by cardiovascular diseases and external causes.
Conclusions. Despite the considerable transformations of socioeconomic situation and economic crisis, it is likely that Lithuania is entering into the stage of positive health development. For assuring this trend in the future, investments in sustainable health and social developments are inevitable.