Epidemiologia, Volume 4, Issue 3 (September 2023) – 11 articles

This index meta-analysis estimated the pooled prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) among individuals with monkeypox (mpox) globally. We searched seven databases: PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, EMBASE, ProQuest, EBSCOHost, and Cochrane, for human studies published in English till 4 January 2023, as per International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO) registration protocol (CRD42022383275). A random effects regression model was used to estimate the pooled prevalence owing to high heterogeneity. The risk of bias in the included studies was assessed using the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) quality assessment tool. The systematic search yielded 677 articles; finally, 32 studies were found eligible for systematic review and 29 studies for meta-analysis. The pooled prevalence of HIV infection was 41% (95% confidence interval [CI], 35–48). All studies were rated as fair or good quality. Studies from Europe and North America reported a high prevalence of HIV infection among individuals with mpox- 41% (95% CI 33–49) and 52% (95% CI 28–76), respectively, while studies from Nigeria, Africa reported a relatively low prevalence of HIV infection of 21% (95% CI 15–26). A history of sexual orientation and sexual partners in the last 21 days must be taken from individuals with mpox to identify the potential source and contacts for quarantining and testing them. Full article

With the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) (2015–2030) focused on the reduction in maternal mortality, monitoring and forecasting maternal mortality rates (MMRs) in regions like Africa is crucial for health strategy planning by policymakers, international organizations, and NGOs. We collected maternal mortality rates per 100,000 births from the World Bank database between 1990 and 2015. Joinpoint regression was applied to assess trends, and the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used on 1990–2015 data to forecast the MMRs for the next 15 years. We also used the Holt method and the machine-learning Prophet Forecasting Model. The study found a decline in MMRs in Africa with an average annual percentage change (APC) of −2.6% (95% CI −2.7; −2.5). North Africa reported the lowest MMR, while East Africa experienced the sharpest decline. The region-specific ARIMA models predict that the maternal mortality rate (MMR) in 2030 will vary across regions, ranging from 161 deaths per 100,000 births in North Africa to 302 deaths per 100,000 births in Central Africa, averaging 182 per 100,000 births for the continent. Despite the observed decreasing trend in maternal mortality rate (MMR), the MMR in Africa remains relatively high. The results indicate that MMR in Africa will continue to decrease by 2030. However, no region of Africa will likely reach the SDG target. Full article

Molnupiravir (MOV) was introduced in Israel in January 2022 during the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron surge for high-risk patients contraindicated for nirmatrelvir/ritonavir. This retrospective cohort study aimed to describe characteristics of patients offered COVID-19 antiviral treatment in Maccabi Healthcare Services (antiviral treatment-eligible cohort; n = 5596) between 12 January and 28 February 2022, and the subset of these who were dispensed MOV (MOV-treated cohort; n = 1147), as well as outcomes following MOV dispensation. Median (interquartile range) age in the antiviral treatment-eligible and MOV-treated cohorts were 70.5 (61.1, 77.3) and 74.1 (64.3, 81.7) years, respectively. The MOV-treated cohort (male: 53.2%) had high rates of COVID-19 vaccination (91.4%) and comorbidities, including immunosuppression (40.0%) and chronic kidney disease (67.0%; eGFR < 30 mL/min/1.73 m²: 28.8%), and most used comedications either contraindicated or with major potential for drug–drug interactions with nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (87.3%). At 28 days post-MOV dispensation, the cumulative incidence (95% CI) of COVID-19-related hospitalization and/or all-cause mortality was 3.6% (2.5%, 4.6%), with similar rates across sexes and age groups (18–64 vs. ≥65 years), and lower rates among recently vaccinated and/or recently SARS-CoV-2-infected patients. These data describe the characteristics and outcomes for MOV-treated patients in Israel, whose clinical characteristics may preclude the use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir to treat their COVID-19 infection. Full article

Exposure to aquatic environments (i.e., blue spaces) can lead to improved mental health and well-being. One meaningful way to spend time in blue spaces is through recreational angling, although limited scientific literature exists on this topic. The present study aims to examine the relationship between recreational angling and mental health and well-being in a sample of UK adult male anglers. A cross-sectional online survey asked questions about demographic characteristics, participation in recreational angling, physical activity levels, diagnosis of psychiatric disorders, and mental health and well-being. Relationships between angling status (i.e., how often and how long participants angled for) and mental health variables were determined using regression models adjusted for age. In total, 1752 participants completed the survey. The regression models found that those who took part in angling more regularly had reduced odds of having depression (p < 0.001), schizophrenia (p = 0.001), suicidal thoughts (p < 0.001), and deliberately self-harming (p = 0.012), in addition to having a higher mental well-being and lower symptoms of depression and anxiety compared to those taking part in angling less frequently. In general, the findings suggest that encouraging frequent participation in recreational angling could be a dual method strategy for promoting relaxation and positive mental health, as well as encouraging increased levels of physical activity in those with mental health issues. Full article

Contact network models are recent alternatives to equation-based models in epidemiology. In this paper, the spread of disease is modeled on contact networks using bond percolation. The weight of the edges in the contact graphs is determined as a function of several variables in which case the weight is the product of the probabilities of independent events involving each of the variables. In the first experiment, the weight of the edges is computed from a single variable involving the number of passengers on flights between two cities within the United States, and in the second experiment, the weight of the edges is computed as a function of several variables using data from 2012 Kenyan household contact networks. In addition, the paper explored the dynamics and adaptive nature of contact networks. The results from the contact network model outperform the equation-based model in estimating the spread of the 1918 Influenza virus. Full article

The burden of tuberculosis (TB) in Jordan is largely unknown due to the paucity of high-quality data, under-reporting, and a lack of good quality vital registration system. This study aimed to assess the characteristics of TB patients in Jordan, determine the TB notification rate and assess the trend of TB notification in Jordan between 2016 and 2020. Methods: This study analyzed the TB Surveillance data in Jordan for the period 2016–2020. The obtained data included information on age, gender, nationality, marital status, date of symptoms onset and date of diagnosis, and site of TB. Results: During the period 2016–2020, a total of 1711 patients (989 women and 722 men) were diagnosed with and treated for tuberculosis. The mean (SD) age of patients was 30.1 (17.2) years. Almost half of them (48.4%) were Jordanians. The majority of non-Jordanian patients were from Syria, Philippines, and Bangladesh. Two thirds of patients (66.0%) had pulmonary TB and 34.0% had extra-pulmonary TB. Almost half (50.7%) of the patients were diagnosed within one month of the symptoms’ onset. The average annual TB notification rate during 2016–2020 was 3.32 per 100,000 pop (4.08 per 100,000 women and 2.64 per 100,000 men). The average annual standardized notification rate was 4.13 per 100,000 pop (4.52 per 100,000 women and 3.52 per 100,000 men). The overall age-standardized notification rate increased from 3.88 per 100,000 pop in 2016 to 4.58 per 100,000 pop in 2019 and declined to 2.46 per 100,000 pop in 2020. The trend in TB notification differed significantly according to gender. While the notification increased in the last three years among women, it decreased significantly among men. Conclusions: While TB notification increased in the last three years among women, it decreased significantly among men. There is a need to ensure that the national TB plans set clear targets for reducing the burden of TB. Full article

The timely identification of expected surges of cases during infectious disease epidemics is essential for allocating resources and preparing interventions. Failing to detect critical phases in time may lead to delayed implementation of interventions and have serious consequences. This study describes a simple way to evaluate whether an epidemic wave is likely to be present based solely on daily new case count data. The proposed measure compares two models that assume exponential or linear dynamics, respectively. The most important assumption of this approach is that epidemic waves are characterized rather by exponential than linear growth in the daily number of new cases. Technically, the coefficient of determination of two regression analyses is used to approximate a Bayes factor, which quantifies the support for the exponential over the linear model and can be used for epidemic wave detection. The trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic in three countries is analyzed and discussed for illustration. The proposed measure detects epidemic waves at an early stage, which are otherwise visible only by inspecting the development of case count data retrospectively. Major limitations include missing evidence on generalizability and performance compared to other methods. Nevertheless, the outlined approach may inform public health decision-making and serve as a starting point for scientific discussions on epidemic waves. Full article

Lebanon has been one of the most affected countries by the Syrian humanitarian crisis. The national communicable disease surveillance was enhanced to detect outbreaks among Syrians. In this study, we aim to describe the findings of the communicable disease surveillance among Syrians in Lebanon, compare it to residents’ data, and describe the implemented surveillance activities between 2013 and 2019. During the study period, data on communicable diseases was mainly collected through the routine national surveillance system and an enhanced syndromic surveillance system. Predefined case definitions and standard operating procedures were in place. Data collection included both case-based and disease-specific reporting forms. Descriptive data and incidence rates were generated. Information was disseminated through weekly reports. Activities were conducted in close collaboration with different partners. The most commonly reported diseases were: viral hepatitis A, cutaneous leishmaniasis, mumps, and measles. Hepatitis A incidence increased in 2013 and 2014 among Syrians as well as residents. For leishmaniasis, the incidence increased only among Syrians in 2013 and decreased after that. An outbreak of mumps was reported among Syrians between 2014 and 2016, with a peak in 2015 concomitant with a national outbreak. Outbreaks of measles were reported among Syrians and residents in 2013, 2018, and 2019. The infrastructure of the well-implemented surveillance system in Lebanon has been utilized to monitor the health status of Syrians in Lebanon, early detect communicable diseases among this population, and guide needed preventive and control measures. This highlights the importance of having a flexible surveillance system that can be adapted to emergencies and the importance of sharing results with involved partners. Full article

Children and adolescents account for a small proportion of confirmed COVID-19 cases, with mild and self-limiting clinical manifestations. The distribution and determinants of COVID-19 among this group in Sudan are unclear. This study used national COVID-19 surveillance data to study the epidemiology of COVID-19 among children and adolescents in Sudan during 2020–2021. A cross-sectional study was performed to estimate the reported incidence of children and adolescents with COVID-19; the clinical features; and the mortality among those who tested positive for COVID-19. A total of 3150 suspected cases of COVID-19 infection fulfilled the study criteria. The majority of cases were above 10 years of age, 52% (1635) were males, and 56% (1765) were asymptomatic. The reported incidence rates of COVID-19 among children and adolescents in Sudan was 1.3 per 10,000 in 2021. Fever, cough, and headache were the most frequent symptoms reported among the suspected cases. The case fatality rate was 0.2%. Binary logistic regression revealed that loss of smell was the most significantly associated symptom with a positive test. We recommend further study to identify risk factors. Additionally, we recommend including these age groups in the vaccination strategy in Sudan. Full article

This is the first evaluation of the Yemen Field Epidemiology Training Program (Y-FETP) to assess if it met its objectives. We collected data using mixed methods including desk review, a focus group discussion with the Y-FETP staff, in-depth interviews with 21 program stakeholders, and an online survey for the program’s graduates. We transcribed/analyzed qualitative data using explanatory quotations and survey data using descriptive methods. The desk review indicated that Y-FETP covers 18 (82%) out of 22 governorates and conducted >171 outbreak investigations, 138 surveillance system analyses/evaluations, 53 planned studies, published >50 articles and had >155 accepted conference abstracts. Qualitative findings showed Y-FETP helped save lives and reduced morbidity/mortality using building capacities in outbreak response; provided evidence-based data for decision-making; and increased awareness about public health issues. An online survey showed that Y-FETP helped 60 to 80% of graduates conduct outbreak investigations, surveillance analysis/evaluation, manage surveillance systems/projects, engage in public health communication (reports/presentation), and use basic statistical methods. However, the evaluation revealed that Y-FETP is primarily funded by donors; thus, it is not sustainable. Other challenges include low graduate retention and limited training in policy development and management. Y-FETP achieved its main objectives of increasing the number of epidemiologists in the workforce, making a positive impact on public health outcomes. Full article

Typhoid fever is a significant public health concern in many parts of the world, particularly in developing countries with poor sanitation and hygiene conditions. In July 2016, an outbreak of typhoid fever occurred in Ghannouche, located in the south of Tunisia. This paper reports the results of a field investigation undertaken to identify possible transmission pathways and risk factors in order to propose control and preventive measures. A retrospective cohort study including a passive and active case finding, as well as an environmental and bacteriological investigation was conducted from July to September 2016. A case was defined as a person residing or having stayed in Ghannouche and having presented from the beginning of June clinical signs suggestive of typhoid fever, with, for a confirmed case, laboratory isolation of S.Tyhi, and for a probable case, an epidemiological link with a confirmed case. Attack rates were determined, and risk ratios were estimated with respect to exposures. Unadjusted and adjusted odds ratios were estimated using binary logistic regression. Among the 628 subjects investigated, 102 cases of typhoid fever were identified (74 confirmed and 28 probable) with an overall attack rate of 16.24%. Over 56% of cases were male and those under 10 years old were most affected (38.2%% of cases) with a median age of 12 years (interquartile range 5 to 25 years). The main clinical signs were fever (95%) and diarrhea (57%). Young age (adjusted OR = 0.95 and 95% CI = 0.93–0.97), low level of education (adjusted OR = 4.76 and 95% CI = 1.34–16.81), and the habitat type Arab or rudimentary house (adjusted OR = 4.93 and 95% CI = 2.61–8.27) were the socio-demographic factors independently associated with typhoid fever. Typhoid fever was found to be associated with drinking softened water (adjusted OR = 2.64 and 95% CI = 1.16–4.82), eating raw fruit and vegetables from family gardens (adjusted OR = 6.13 and 95% CI = 3.66–11.06), and using uncontrolled waste disposal (adjusted OR = 3.52 and 95% CI = 2.03–6.94). A total of 110 drinking water samples were analyzed; out of the 38 samples of softened water, 12 were non-compliant and 5 were positive for Salmonella. The screening activity identified two asymptomatic carriers, one of whom was a softened water seller. We concluded that drinking softened water from informal or unauthorized sale units, consuming fruit and vegetables from family gardens, uncontrolled dumping of household waste, and poor socio-economic conditions increase the risk of typhoid fever in this region. Many recommendations were implemented to stop this outbreak and to prevent further episodes. Full article