Comparison of Predictive Properties between Tools of Patient-Reported Outcomes: Risk Prediction for Three Future Events in Subjects with COPD
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methods
2.1. Participants
2.2. Measurements
2.3. Patient-Reported Measurements
2.4. Statistical Methods
3. Results
3.1. Subject Characteristics and Scores Obtained at Baseline
3.2. Episodes Identified during Follow-Up Periods
3.3. Predictive Properties of Mortality
3.4. Predictive Properties of AECOPD
3.5. Predictive Properties of the First Hospitalization Due to Acute Exacerbation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Mean | SD | Max. | Min. | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Age | years | 74.5 | 6.4 | 88.0 | 58.0 |
BMI | kg/m2 | 22.5 | 3.1 | 31.6 | 14.0 |
Cumulative Smoking | pack-years | 57.9 | 29.2 | 204.0 | 10.0 |
FVC | Liters | 3.08 | 0.76 | 5.34 | 1.35 |
FEV1 | Liters | 1.72 | 0.54 | 3.13 | 0.52 |
FEV1/FVC | % | 55.8 | 11.1 | 69.9 | 22.4 |
RV/TLC 1 | % | 46.0 | 10.0 | 85.1 | 18.1 |
DLco 2 | mL/min/mmHg | 12.47 | 5.54 | 37.32 | 1.94 |
PaO2 3 | mmHg | 78.7 | 8.6 | 101.5 | 56.6 |
Patient-Reported Outcomes | Items | Possible Score Range | Score Distribution | GOLD 1 (N = 41) | GOLD 2 (N = 60) | GOLD 3 + 4 (N = 21) | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
(n) | Mean | SD | Max. | Min. | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | Mean | SD | ||
D-12 Total Score | 12 | 0–36 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.9 ± 2.1 | 1.3 ± 2.2 § | 3.9 ± 4.2 ¶¶ | |||
D-12 Physical Score | 7 | 0–21 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 0.7 ± 1.4 | 1.2 ± 1.7 § | 3.4 ± 3.2 ¶¶ | |||
D-12 Affective Score | 5 | 0–15 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 ± 0.8 | 0.2 ± 0.7 | 0.5 ± 1.5 | |||
BDI Score | 3 | 0–12 | 9.3 | 2.3 | 12.0 | 4.0 | 10.2 ± 2.0 | 9.4 ± 2.3 § | 7.5 ± 2.2 ¶¶ | |||
E-RS Total Score 1 | 11 | 0–40 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 24.0 | 0.0 | 3.5 ± 3.5 | 5.1 ± 5.0 §3 | 10.3 ± 6.5 ¶¶ | |||
E-RS Breathlessness | 5 | 0–17 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 ± 1.7 | 2.1 ± 2.8 §§5 | 6.1 ± 4.1 ¶¶ | |||
E-RS Cough and Sputum 2 | 3 | 0–11 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 1.7 ± 1.6 | 2.1 ± 1.8 4 | 2.1 ± 1.9 | |||
E-RS Chest Symptoms | 3 | 0–12 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 6.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 ± 1.4 | 0.8 ± 1.6 §5 | 2.0 ± 2.0 ¶ | |||
SGRQ Total Score | 50 | 0–100 | 23.0 | 15.3 | 63.1 | 1.2 | 16.5 ± 10.4 | 21.8 ± 14.6 §§ | 39.1 ± 14.7 ¶¶ | |||
SGRQ Symptoms | 8 | 0–100 | 39.2 | 19.6 | 81.4 | 0.0 | 33.3 ± 17.0 | 37.1 ± 18.7 §§ | 56.4 ± 17.9 ¶¶ | |||
SGRQ Activity | 16 | 0–100 | 31.0 | 23.0 | 87.2 | 0.0 | 21.3 ± 19.1 | 29.4 ± 21.6 §§ | 54.7 ± 17.3 ¶¶ | |||
SGRQ Impact | 26 | 0–100 | 13.6 | 13.3 | 55.2 | 0.0 | 8.8 ± 8.4 | 13.0 ± 12.9 § | 24.8 ± 16.0 ¶¶ | |||
CAT Score | 8 | 0–40 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 27.0 | 0.0 | 7.1 ± 5.3 | 7.9 ± 6.1 §§ | 15.5 ± 6.9 ¶¶ | |||
Hyland Scale Score | 1 | 0–100 | 67.6 | 14.6 | 27.0 | 30.0 | 73.4 ± 12.0 | 68.1 ± 13.6 § | 55.0 ± 14.9 ¶¶ |
Crude Cox Regression of the Raw Predictors | Cox Regression of the Standardized Predictors | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | p Value | C-Index | SD | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | |
Age (years) | 1.099 (1.022–1.183) | 0.011 | 0.645 | 6.4 | 1.824 (1.146–2.904) |
BMI (kg/m2) | 0.990 (0.843–1.162) | 0.901 | 0.562 | 3.1 | 0.969 (0.591–1.589) |
Cumulative Smoking (pack-years) | 0.998 (0.984–1.012) | 0.801 | 0.498 | 29.2 | 0.949 (0.632–1.425) |
FVC (Liters) | 0.495 (0.251–0.977) | 0.043 | 0.619 | 0.76 | 0.585 (0.348–0.982) |
FEV1 (Liters) | 0.244 (0.096–0.615) | 0.003 | 0.733 | 0.54 | 0.464 (0.280–0.768) |
FEV1/FVC (%) | 0.955 (0.920–0.992) | 0.017 | 0.726 | 11.1 | 0.602 (0.397–0.913) |
RV/TLC (%) 1 | 1.015 (0.979–1.054) | 0.416 | 0.610 | 10.0 | 1.166 (0.806–1.686) |
DLco (mL/min/mmHg) 2 | 0.863 (0.782–0.952) | 0.003 | 0.672 | 5.54 | 0.442 (0.256–0.764) |
PaO2 (mmHg) 3 | 0.983 (0.931–1.038) | 0.537 | 0.571 | 8.6 | 0.863 (0.542–1.376) |
D-12 Total Score | 1.011 (0.893–1.145) | 0.859 | 0.656 | 2.8 | 1.032 (0.729–1.462) |
D-12 Physical Score | 1.070 (0.920–1.245) | 0.380 | 0.661 | 2.2 | 1.158 (0.835–1.606) |
D-12 Affective Score | 0.435 (0.063–2.995) | 0.397 | 0.550 | 0.9 | 0.472 (0.083–2.690) |
BDI Score | 0.777 (0.640–0.943) | 0.011 | 0.690 | 2.3 | 0.554 (0.352–0.872) |
E-RS Total Score | 1.037 (0.972–1.108) | 0.272 | 0.611 | 5.4 | 1.219 (0.856–1.735) |
RS-Breathlessness | 1.079 (0.974–1.195) | 0.147 | 0.603 | 3.3 | 1.281 (0.916–1.789) |
RS-Cough and Sputum | 1.028 (0.791–1.336) | 0.837 | 0.528 | 1.7 | 1.048 (0.669–1.642) |
RS-Chest Symptoms | 1.106 (0.872–1.404) | 0.405 | 0.583 | 1.6 | 1.179 (0.800–1.738) |
SGRQ Total Score | 1.027 (1.002–1.052) | 0.033 | 0.683 | 15.3 | 1.499 (1.033–2.177) |
SGRQ Symptoms | 1.024 (1.000–1.048) | 0.053 | 0.669 | 19.6 | 1.579 (0.994–2.507) |
SGRQ Activity | 1.027 (1.007–1.046) | 0.007 | 0.706 | 23.0 | 1.832 (1.184–2.835) |
SGRQ Impact | 1.016 (0.988–1.044) | 0.274 | 0.621 | 13.3 | 1.227 (0.850–1.771) |
CAT Score | 1.077 (1.017–1.142) | 0.011 | 0.699 | 6.7 | 1.643 (1.118–2.418) |
Hyland Scale Score | 0.951 (0.922–0.980) | 0.001 | 0.694 | 14.6 | 0.477 (0.304–0.750) |
Crude Cox Regression of the Raw Predictors | Cox Regression of the Standardized Predictors | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | p Value | C-Index | SD | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | |
Age (years) | 1.046 (1.001–1.093) | 0.046 | 0.578 | 6.4 | 1.331 (1.005–1.761) |
BMI (kg/m2) | 0.936 (0.865–1.014) | 0.104 | 0.580 | 3.1 | 0.816 (0.638–1.043) |
Cumulative Smoking (pack-years) | 0.996 (0.987–1.005) | 0.357 | 0.534 | 29.2 | 0.887 (0.689–1.144) |
FVC (Liters) | 0.500 (0.344–0.725) | <0.001 | 0.673 | 0.76 | 0.589 (0.444–0.783) |
FEV1 (Liters) | 0.242 (0.144–0.410) | <0.001 | 0.717 | 0.54 | 0.463 (0.348–0.615) |
FEV1/FVC (%) | 0.951 (0.930–0.972) | <0.001 | 0.661 | 11.1 | 0.573 (0.448–0.732) |
RV/TLC (%) 1 | 1.039 (1.015–1.063) | 0.001 | 0.641 | 10.0 | 1.462 (1.160–1.844) |
DLco (mL/min/mmHg) 2 | 0.924 (0.875–0.977) | 0.005 | 0.606 | 5.54 | 0.647 (0.478–0.877) |
PaO2 (mmHg) 3 | 0.976 (0.949–1.004) | 0.090 | 0.573 | 8.6 | 0.812 (0.638–1.033) |
D-12 Total Score | 1.087 (1.023–1.154) | 0.007 | 0.633 | 2.8 | 1.263 (1.066–1.496) |
D-12 Physical Score | 1.160 (1.064–1.265) | 0.001 | 0.636 | 2.2 | 1.379 (1.143–1.663) |
D-12 Affective Score | 1.105 (0.909–1.345) | 0.316 | 0.515 | 0.9 | 1.095 (0.917–1.306) |
BDI Score | 0.816 (0.732–0.909) | <0.001 | 0.664 | 2.3 | 0.621 (0.482–0.800) |
E-RS Total Score | 1.087 (1.043–1.133) | <0.001 | 0.638 | 5.4 | 1.571 (1.257–1.964) |
RS-Breathlessness | 1.169 (1.094–1.250) | <0.001 | 0.643 | 3.3 | 1.668 (1.343–2.073) |
RS-Cough and Sputum | 1.151 (0.997–1.329) | 0.054 | 0.573 | 1.7 | 1.273 (0.996–1.627) |
RS-Chest Symptoms | 1.172 (1.021–1.344) | 0.024 | 0.561 | 1.6 | 1.294 (1.035–1.620) |
SGRQ Total Score | 1.029 (1.014–1.045) | <0.001 | 0.660 | 15.3 | 1.551(1.230–1.954) |
SGRQ Symptoms | 1.020 (1.007–1.034) | 0.003 | 0.630 | 19.6 | 1.483 (1.142–1.926) |
SGRQ Activity | 1.019 (1.009–1.030) | <0.001 | 0.671 | 23.0 | 1.555 (1.219–1.985) |
SGRQ Impact | 1.027 (1.010–1.045) | 0.002 | 0.609 | 13.3 | 1.427(1.140–1.787) |
CAT Score | 1.066 (1.027–1.106) | 0.001 | 0.624 | 6.7 | 1.525 (1.191–1.163) |
Hyland Scale Score | 0.976 (0.958–0.994) | 0.008 | 0.611 | 14.6 | 0.698 (0.535–0.910) |
Crude Cox Regression of the Raw Predictors | Cox Regression of the Standardized Predictors | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | p Value | C-Index | SD | Hazard Ratio (95% CI) | |
Age (years) | 1.074 (1.016–1.135) | 0.012 | 0.602 | 6.4 | 1.573 (1.105–2.238) |
BMI (kg/m2) | 0.930 (0.834–1.037) | 0.191 | 0.561 | 3.1 | 0.799 (0.571–1.119) |
Cumulative Smoking (pack-years) | 0.993 (0.983–1.004) | 0.234 | 0.532 | 29.2 | 0.823 (0.598–1.134) |
FVC (Liters) | 0.391 (0.248–0.618) | <0.001 | 0.708 | 0.76 | 0.489 (0.345–0.693) |
FEV1 (Liters) | 0.168 (0.090–0.315) | <0.001 | 0.754 | 0.54 | 0.379 (0.269–0.534) |
FEV1/FVC (%) | 0.939 (0.915–0.964) | <0.001 | 0.690 | 11.1 | 0.496 (0.371–0.661) |
RV/TLC (%) 1 | 1.055 (1.027–1.085) | <0.001 | 0.714 | 10.0 | 1.710 (1.300–2.249) |
DLco (mL/min/mmHg) 2 | 0.885 (0.824–0.951) | 0.001 | 0.638 | 5.54 | 0.509 (0.342–0.756) |
PaO2 (mmHg) 3 | 0.950 (0.916–0.985) | 0.005 | 0.603 | 8.6 | 0.643 (0.471–0.876) |
D-12 Total Score | 1.135 (1.059–1.216) | <0.001 | 0.698 | 2.8 | 1.426 (1.175–1.732) |
D–12 Physical Score | 1.248 (1.128–1.381) | <0.001 | 0.700 | 2.2 | 1.616 (1.298–2.012) |
D–12 Affective Score | 1.200 (0.956–1.506) | 0.115 | 0.532 | 0.9 | 1.179 (0.961–1.447) |
BDI Score | 0.745 (0.652–0.851) | <0.001 | 0.699 | 2.3 | 0.503 (0.369–0.685) |
E-RS Total Score | 1.135 (1.078–1.195) | <0.001 | 0.701 | 5.4 | 1.977 (1.497–2.611) |
RS–Breathlessness | 1.235 (1.139–1.34) | <0.001 | 0.692 | 3.3 | 1.996 (1.532–2.601) |
RS–Cough and Sputum | 1.255 (1.042–1.513) | 0.017 | 0.623 | 1.7 | 1.475 (1.072–2.030) |
RS–Chest Symptoms | 1.276 (1.088–1.496) | 0.003 | 0.646 | 1.6 | 1.487 (1.147–1.929) |
SGRQ Total Score | 1.043 (1.024–1.062) | <0.001 | 0.702 | 15.3 | 1.909 (1.445–2.523) |
SGRQ Symptoms | 1.031 (1.014–1.048) | <0.001 | 0.684 | 19.6 | 1.804 (1.306–2.492) |
SGRQ Activity | 1.030 (1.016–1.044) | <0.001 | 0.712 | 23.0 | 1.966 (1.439–2.687) |
SGRQ Impact | 1.040 (1.020–1.060) | <0.001 | 0.653 | 13.3 | 1.677 (1.295–2.172) |
CAT Score | 1.137 (1.085–1.191) | <0.001 | 0.712 | 6.7 | 2.347 (1.721–3.202) |
Hyland Scale Score | 0.966 (0.946–0.987) | 0.002 | 0.625 | 14.6 | 0.604 (0.442–0.826) |
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Nishimura, K.; Kusunose, M.; Sanda, R.; Mori, M.; Shibayama, A.; Nakayasu, K. Comparison of Predictive Properties between Tools of Patient-Reported Outcomes: Risk Prediction for Three Future Events in Subjects with COPD. Diagnostics 2023, 13, 2269. https://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13132269
Nishimura K, Kusunose M, Sanda R, Mori M, Shibayama A, Nakayasu K. Comparison of Predictive Properties between Tools of Patient-Reported Outcomes: Risk Prediction for Three Future Events in Subjects with COPD. Diagnostics. 2023; 13(13):2269. https://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13132269
Chicago/Turabian StyleNishimura, Koichi, Masaaki Kusunose, Ryo Sanda, Mio Mori, Ayumi Shibayama, and Kazuhito Nakayasu. 2023. "Comparison of Predictive Properties between Tools of Patient-Reported Outcomes: Risk Prediction for Three Future Events in Subjects with COPD" Diagnostics 13, no. 13: 2269. https://doi.org/10.3390/diagnostics13132269