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Article

Integrated Management and Environmental Impact Assessment of Sustainable Groundwater-Dependent Development in Toshka District, Egypt

by
Marwa M. Aly
1,
Ahmed M. I. Abd Elhamid
2,
Heba Abdel-Aziz Abu-Bakr
3,
Ahmed Shalby
4 and
Shymaa A. K. Fayad
1,5,*
1
Faculty of Engineering Matareya, Helwan University, Cairo 11718, Egypt
2
Hydraulics Research Institute, National Water Research Center, MWRI, Cairo 13621, Egypt
3
Research Institute for Groundwater, National Water Research Centre, MWRI, Cairo 13621, Egypt
4
Faculty of Engineering, Tanta University, Tanta 31521, Egypt
5
Division of Engineering, International Academy for Engineering and Media Science (IAEMS), 6th of October City 15515, Egypt
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2023, 15(12), 2183; https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122183
Submission received: 22 April 2023 / Revised: 1 June 2023 / Accepted: 6 June 2023 / Published: 9 June 2023
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Flow and Transport Processes in Groundwater Systems)
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Review Reports Versions Notes

Abstract

:
Egypt has recently inaugurated a mega development project aiming to alleviate the overpopulation along the Nile River and to meet the looming food gap. Toshka is a promising area where groundwater-dependent activities are being expanded adjacent to Lake Nasser. Thus, it is of utmost importance to provide a sustainable development approach and to assess the resulting environmental implications. Accordingly, a coupled groundwater flow and transport model was invoked. The generated model was successfully calibrated for the observed water levels and salinity. The proposed exploitation regime of 102 wells each pumping 1000 m3/day was simulated for a 100-year test period. The maximum resulting drawdown was about 25 m, compatible with the advocated sustainable restriction limit. Climate change (CC) impacts of reducing the lake’s storage and increasing the crops’ water requirements were investigated. The lake’s water level fluctuations were a key factor in the aquifer hydraulics and flow direction. The drawdown breakthrough considering the CC catastrophic scenario (RCP8.5) has increased by about 20%. The developed solute transport model was utilized to simulate the salinity spatial distribution and the lateral movement of leaking pollutants from the underway activities. Cultivation activities were found feasible up to 80 km away from the lake border where salinity does not exceed 2000 ppm. Yet, a protection strip of not less than 4.8, 6.0, and 7.2 km according to the lake operating condition is inevitable to ensure that pollutants do not intrude into the lake. These findings will assist the decision-makers in scheming environmental impact assessment criteria for sustainable development.

1. Introduction

Globally, groundwater aquifers have been intensively tapped as a convenient and accessible freshwater supply to cater to the growing water demand [1,2]. In some regions, unwise water pumping has resulted in decreased groundwater availability that coincides with an increase in pumping costs and a deterioration in water quality [3,4]. These adverse implications are particularly evident in arid and semi-arid regions [5,6]. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the exploitation scheme in a sustainable management plan to maintain the proposed development [4,7,8].
The Egyptian government has recently initiated a mega groundwater-dependent development project throughout the vast desert areas [9,10]. The development activities aim to establish integrated communities in such barren lands to relieve the overpopulated pressure in the Nile Valley and Delta [11,12]. Agribusiness in the western desert is regarded as one of the main development axes of Egypt’s strategic plan [13,14]. The Nubian Sandstone Aquifer (NSA) was considered a lifeline for the proposed rural communities in such remote areas [7]. Accordingly, the NSA has been overstressed since the inauguration of the development project in 2016 [14]. Hereby, groundwater availability and suitability are essential constraints to the sustainability of such development projects. The proposed extensive water abstraction would surely shift the dynamics of the aquifers, leading occasionally to aquifer depletion and land subsidence [15,16]. Judicious management of groundwater resources is inevitable to ensure the safe exploitation that maintains the long-term yielding and suitability of the aquifer’s storage [7,12]. The proposed development has generated increasing pressure on water managers to sustainably manage the aquifers to maintain the investment.
The NSA is a suitable multi-purpose water supply [17]; thus, pumped groundwater through the underway development project is utilized for domestic, industrial, and agricultural usage. However, the proposed anthropogenic activities, especially the industrial, may endanger the aquifer regarding water quality and suitability [18]. Dissolved pollutants and substances would restrain the suitability of groundwater storage for the desired usage [19,20]. Indeed, water contamination is a serious global hazard that threatens human beings [21]. Groundwater is less susceptible to pollution than surface water bodies (e.g., streams and lakes) [22]. Yet, polluted aquifers entail prolonged times to be restored due to slow water movement through porous media [23,24]. The leaching of excessive fertilizers, nutrients, and chemical pesticides from farmlands or dumpsites is a prevailing groundwater pollution source [20,24,25]. Another common groundwater pollution source is dissolved pollutants that directly leak into the aquifers from septic tanks [26]. Yet, accidental spills of industrial effluents are the most harmful pollution source [27]. The implication varies according to the industrial activity itself, the concentration of chemical pollutants and heavy elements, and their disposal technique [22].
Accordingly, it is essential to assess sustainability and protect aquifers in the face of ongoing and proposed development-induced stresses. A promising tool to determine the exploitation status of an aquifer is integrating indicators of multiple dimensions (i.e., hydrogeology, environmental, social, economic, and political) [8,28]. Yet, the resulting overall sustainability index cannot demonstrate the contribution of future groundwater development plans [29]. Indices (e.g., DRASTIC, AVI, and GOD) that are generated from the weighted overlay of several parameters were widely applied to assess the aquifer’s intrinsic vulnerability to pollution [30,31,32]. However, the index-based approach mostly considers only the characteristics of the unsaturated zone [30], and has received much criticism due to lack of proper validation [24]. Simulation models are therefore invoked for forecasting the processes related to contaminant transport [33]. Groundwater modelling is a sophisticated tool to mimic the real aquifer system in a computerized form [26,27]. The simulation enables investigation of the system response under certain or hypothetical conditions, or to predict its behaviour under future exploitation policies [34,35]. Variant management scenarios can be applied to protect the aquifer systems regarding both quantity and quality aspects. The results are usually vital to decision-makers to help in planning for future water consumption and understand the behaviour of a groundwater system upon implementation of a project or to implement a remediation strategy [36]. Accordingly, applying computer-based models for aquifer modelling has become a very necessary and effective method for groundwater management [6,37]. Groundwater flow models are used to simulate the hydraulic behaviour of the aquifer, such as the water flow, storage changes, and alterations in water tables or piezometric heads [37], while solute transport models mainly deal with the hydrogeological problems related to the spreading and fate of dissolved contaminant constituents [38]. Following the literature, MODFLOW and MT3DMS codes are the commonly adopted software for the simulation of groundwater flow and pollutant migration [38,39,40].
In south Egypt, the Toshka region is a promising development area. Relying on the high potential of the NSA, extensive agribusiness activities are being implemented. The NSA in the Toshka region is hydraulically connected to Lake Nasser, which is a great freshwater reservoir [41,42]. For many decades, the lake’s operational management was keen to prevent any extensive development in the area [43,44]. Nevertheless, the region has lately acquired major economic importance, as the government decided to resettle agro-product and fish processing industries [14,42]. A numerical-simulation-based approach was utilized to obtain the safe pumping rate to irrigate the reclaimed plots [41,43]. However, these studies do not consider the projected changes in crop water requirements and the hydrological condition of the recharging lake. Moreover, the presence of different industrial, agricultural, and domestic activities in the region has introduced potentially serious threats to the lake water quality, causing tragic effects on Egypt’s main water supply [45]. It is, therefore, of utmost importance to adopt environmentally friendly planning and practices to protect the lake and surrounding area from pollution. Here, a subsurface hydrological investigation of the NSA in the Toshka region is provided through a robust generation of a conceptual mathematical model. The main objectives are to (1) provide a deliberated exploitation approach that sustains groundwater exploitation in the target region, reflecting the anticipated impacts of climate change, and (2) explore the extent and movement of industrial-development-resulting contaminates within the aquifer system and their leakage into the lake. The research results give a full perception to the decision-makers to figure out the optimal sustainable management plan for the proposed activities. Additionally, the research addresses a comprehensive environmental impact assessment guideline to ensure that the pollutants resulting from the industrial activities will not reach either the lake or the production well field in the study area.

2. Study Area

The Toshka region is located southeast of the western desert and west of Lake Nasser, the main potable water reservoir, and fish stock in Egypt. The development area occupies about 25,000 acres enclosed between latitudes 22°30′ N and 23°30′ N and between longitudes 31°00′ E and 32°00′ E (Figure 1). Therefore, it features arid climate characteristics.
Geomorphologically, the Toshka Pediplain (extensive barren plain) is dominated by a sedimentary succession ranging in age from the Palaeozoic to the Quaternary, with exposures of igneous and metamorphic rocks belonging to the Tertiary, Late Cretaceous, Phanerozoic, and Late Precambrian [46]. The Toshka Pediplain exhibits a variable topographic feature of a gentile ground elevation range from 150 m to 250 m above mean sea level (MSL) (Figure 2), while a mountainous topography (i.e., Sin El-Kadab plateau) of elevation higher than 300 m prevails to the north [47]. The extensive plain includes some shallow freshwater ponds (locally called Toshka lakes) of a total area equal to 1300 km2 [48]. The study area comprises various structural elements; among them are a basement uplift represented by the Nakhlai-Aswan uplift trending NE-SW, and four different striking major fault systems generally trending N-S, NE–SW, E-W, and NW–SE directions (Figure 2).
The NSA is the major water-bearing formation throughout the western desert of Egypt. It consists mainly of sand and sandstone that are intercalated with clay. The hydrologic interaction between the NSA aquifer in the Toshka region and Lake Nasser is quite intricate. The groundwater fluctuation is governed by annual changes in the lake’s water levels [49]. Every year, Lake Nasser’s water levels change according to the Nile flood. The average operational water level of Lake Nasser is 170 m above mean sea level (amsl). However, extreme values of 158 m and 182 m were observed in 1987 and 1997, respectively [50]. The aquifer system included two connected water-bearing zones, namely the Sabaya and Abu Simbel formations that are hydraulically connected [51]. The Abu Simbel deposition is the oldest sedimentary unit that mainly consists of sandstone with minor varicoloured clay intercalations (Figure 3). It directly underlies Lake Nasser’s clay deposition and overlies the Precambrian basement rocks, with a thickness that varies from 110 to 500 m, whereas its saturated thickness ranges from 91 to 439 m [51]. The Sabaya deposition directly overlies the Precambrian basement rocks in the north-eastern portion of the study area (Figure 3). The Sabaya formation varies in thickness from 170 to 230 m, whereas its saturated thickness varies in a range of 113 to 153 m [51].

3. Conceptual Model Development

The visual MODFLOW software was adopted to investigate groundwater management and quality problems of the NSA in the Toshka region. Two coupled codes, MODFLOW for groundwater flow simulation and MT3DMS for simulation of pollutant transport, were applied. The first step to computerizing a real aquifer system is to design a representative digital hydrogeologic framework. Hence, the model domain should be well adjusted according to the geometry and composition of the water-bearing formations. The conceptual model of the NSA was developed as a one-layered formation composed of a grained sandstone deposition underlain by a thick claystone impervious layer.
Henceforth, the adopted conceptual model generation comprises:
  • Discretizing the model domain into a proper number of cells.
  • Expanding the generated grids into three dimensions based on stratigraphy data.
  • Characterizing the boundary conditions that control the flow and pollutant movement.
  • Assigning the hydrogeological properties and heterogeneity parameters.

3.1. Groundwater Flow Model

The initial procedure for generating a groundwater flow model is developing model grids that are well adjusted to the model domain. The model domain was divided into 74 columns and 70 rows, covering an area of 29,736 km2 that expands to 168 km in length and 177 km in width (Figure 4a). It was discretized into 5180 cells, each with dimensions equal to 2392 m × 2400 m. The ground surface elevation was derived from the USGS-sourced DEM (digital elevation model) data to delineate the upper elevation of the aquifer layer. The thickness of the aquifer layer was inferred from the well log data that were digitized by the Egyptian Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation (MWRI) “https://www.mwri.gov.eg/ (accessed on 20 April 2023)”. The elevation matrix values were processed using the Surfer v25.1 software. “https://www.goldensoftware.com/products/surfer (accessed on 15 January 2023)” and saved as a spreadsheet file to be accepted by the visual MODFLOW package. Figure 5 visualizes the 3D formation of the modelled aquifer.
The model borders were chosen far enough from the well field to be supposed as a time-constant head (fixed head-boundary condition) (Figure 4a). Lake Nasser bordered the model domain from the southeast and thus was considered as a constant head-boundary condition of 170 m (amsl) for simulation of the normal condition. Along other borders, there is no natural boundary (water body) or water divide (fault) close to the outer border. To overcome this oddity, a head contour line was used instead. The northeast and the southwest boundaries were represented as constant head boundaries with values of 110 and 160 m (amsl), respectively. Before the inauguration of the government-advocated development, the MWRI conducted an exploration survey to define the aquifer’s potential in the Toshka region. The depth to static water level at some monitoring wells scattered throughout the model domain was observed. The depth measurements of the unsaturated zone were subtracted from the DEM data to generate the initial prescribed hydraulic heads.
Depending on the literature and analysis of a recently conducted pumping test for 102 drilled wells, the hydraulic parameters of the entire aquifer were assigned. The horizontal hydraulic conductivity (Kx) ranged between 0.9 and 13.4 m/d. The transmissivity values varied from 86.4 to 1970.9 m2/d, while the fillable porosity was found spatially homogeneous at 0.3. A range of specific storage (Ss) between 6.9 × 10−5 and 24.3 × 10−5 m−1 was retrieved, with the vast majority falling around 13 × 10−5 m−1, while the specific yield (Sy) varied from 0.04 to 0.14. The storage coefficient (Storativity S) ranged between 0.05 and 0.15. The spatial distribution and the actual values of initially assigned parameters (i.e., K, Ss, and Sy) were reviewed during the calibration process.

3.2. Solute Transport Model

The MT3DMS code was invoked to be interfaced with the MODFLOW code to monitor the movement of contamination resulting from the proposed anthropogenic activities in the Toshka development area. This code allows depicting lateral and/or vertical migration of multispecies simultaneously due to variant processes. The migration of soluble pollutants in porous media is mainly upon advection and dispersion processes [49,52]. However, the numerical simulation applying only advection and dispersion underestimates the actual pollutant diffusion range [53]. Yet, considering all parameters affecting the dispersity process, such as adsorption, physical decay, biodegradation, chemical reaction, and volatilization, is exhausting and time consuming [54].
The model results depict the geo-chemical concentrations of soluble contaminants throughout the model domain during the simulation period. Generally, the pollutants are moving toward the groundwater flow field in the aquifer. As the pollution disperses, the concentration decreases as it moves far away from the pollutant source, so it can affect a large area (exceedance area) [55]. The pollutant plume is the visualization of spatial concentrations to mimic the area that is affected by the spreading of pollutants [56]. Here, the developed solute transport model was utilized to simulate the lateral migration of non-reactive pollutants leaching from the ground surface through the porous media of the NSA formation. The objective is to provide a comparative evaluation of the environmental impact of the ongoing industrial activities. Industrial effluents are a major source of toxic non-biodegradable (undegraded) pollutants and trace elements, such as Cr, Cu, Pb, Fe, Mn, Cd, Ni, Zn, etc. Accordingly, the absorption and dispersion properties of a soluble conservative species through the porous media of the aquifer were simulated. Conservative (non-reactive) solutes refers to pollutants whose concentration is unchanged by chemical or biological transformations. Using the transport model, the exposure areas to potential groundwater contamination were determined.
The solute transport model entails a finer grid representation. The model domain was therefore further discretized into 20,720 cells with dimensions of 1196 m × 1200 m (Figure 5b). In such a qualitative simulation, the pollutants’ transport-related parameters are the distribution coefficient (Kd), dispersion coefficients (i.e., length of dispersion, horizontal dispersion ratio to dispersion length, and vertical dispersion ratio to length of dispersion), and diffusion coefficient. The model was first calibrated where the optimal values of these parameters were adjusted after many trials. Accordingly, the concentration boundary of pollutants was assigned as a surface leaching source. The simulation of plume migration was simulated considering the advection–dispersion effect. Different plots for the proposed industrial activities were simulated. The best site for the industry activities was determined according to the pollution dispersion range.

4. Flow Model Simulation

4.1. Model Calibration

The calibration process must be applied to ensure acquiring a reliable mimicking result and to minimize the vestigial between the corresponding measured and calculated records [57]. That can be achieved by adjusting the input hydrogeological parameters [58]. Regarding the flow model simulation, a steady-state calibration was carried out by comparing the obtained groundwater heads of observation wells with simulated data. The results were adjusted by tuning the value of the hydraulic conductivity. Three coefficients, mean absolute error (MAE), root mean squared error (RMSE), and mean relative error (MRE), were estimated as a measure of the model’s skill, while the model goodness-of-fit was based on the correlation coefficient (r), coefficient of efficiency (E), and index of agreement (d). Due to the insufficient temporal variation in water level and pumping records, the pumping test data were employed to refine the model simulation for the transient state. During this process, the specific yield (Sy) value was adjusted to match the temporally measured drawdown with the values computed by the calibrated model. The Sy values within the well field were retrieved from the pumping test analysis of newly installed production wells. Pumping test data are a popular type of transient data utilized for groundwater flow model calibration [59].

4.2. Rural Development Plan

The adjusted model was utilized to anticipate the aquifer behaviour under variant management pathways, addressing the changes in influential parameters related to groundwater development in the investigated area. According to the Egyptian Countryside Development Company (EGDC), rural development progress was initiated in 2016 by drilling 50 production wells, in addition to the rehabilitation of 52 old private wells that were implemented in 2003 [60]. The radius of influence of the pumping wells in the study area is 1400 m [41]. Solar photovoltaic water pumping systems and drip irrigation were adopted. The sunshine limits the wells’ operating time to 6~8 h per day. The advocated pumping rate was set as 100–120 m3/h. The calibrated model was first invoked to simulate the aquifer response under the suggested pumping rate during a 100-year test period. As a rationing rule for water abstraction to avoid severe depletion, the maximum decline in the aquifer’s water table after 100 years should not exceed two-thirds of the aquifer’s saturation depth [60]. Hereby, the maximum allowable drawdown rate is 0.4 m·year−1.

4.3. Future Challenge Implication

Integrated management should deem future challenges that jeopardize the sustainability of such mega development projects [10]. Climate change is the most dangerous threat to cultivation projects, particularly in arid regions [61]. Moreover, the reduction in Lake Nasser’s water levels resulting from the upstream development projects is inevitable [62,63]. In this study, the model was employed to investigate the implications of the projected reduction in Lake Nasser’s storage accompanied by the crop water duty increment due to global warming. Due to climate change, a change in Nile River flow by −25% to 14% at the entrance of Lake Nasser is expected [64]. This decrease in the lake water levels will lead to a reduction in groundwater recharge and will thus decrease the piezometric levels within the neighbouring aquifer system [65]. Owing to the ongoing upstream damming projects, Lake Nasser’s active storage will decrease by a range between 13.29 and 37.26 BCM [62], and its water levels will be lowered by about 0.40–0.75 m [63]. Global warming increases crop water consumptive use, which is commonly referred to as evapotranspiration (ET). The outputs of “MPI-ESM-LR/RCA4”, a regional climate model (RCM), were utilized to project the increase in potential evapotranspiration (PET) under the worst-case climate change scenario (e.g., RCP8.5) [66].

5. Transport Model Simulation

5.1. Model Calibration

Generally, the objective of the transport model calibration is to delineate the solute distribution and dispersion coefficients of the aquifer formation. To cope with the data insufficiency, a deterministic approach was adopted. Lake Nasser was considered as a replenishment freshwater source that assists to dilute the salinity concentration of the NSA in the Toshka region. The applied approach starts by assigning an initial salinity condition that depicts the situation of the modelled aquifer before the Lake Nasser construction. Since the 1970s, the aquifer’s initial brackish water (1500 ppm < TDS < 3000 ppm) has mixed with the freshwater (TDS ≅ 200 ppm) of Lake Nasser. The baseline condition of the developed model was the 1960s, when adequate salinity measurements were available. Afterwards, the model was run for a long time until equilibrium (no change) in the salinity concentration was attained. The simulation period was divided into 50 stress periods that initiated with short time steps (one month) and gradually became longer afterwards (up to a year). A constant boundary concentration of TDS was assigned along the model border (Figure 4b). The assigned concentration for the lake was 200 mg/L [67], while the assigned concentration along other borders varied from 200 to 3000 mg/L based on the literature. The calibration of TDS distribution was achieved when the calculated concentration value was consistent with those observed. That was implemented mainly by tuning the dispersion coefficients.

5.2. Proposed Industrial-Activity-Induced Contamination

The calibrated transport model was utilized to simulate the lateral migration of a conservative pollutant (e.g., TDS) that may result from the proposed industrial business or dumpsite. The main objectives are to allocate the appropriate site for such a potential water contamination source and to delineate the corresponding pollution dispersion range. The optimum location neither triggers the pollution into Lake Nasser nor degrades the subsurface water within the well field. Moreover, the results will be the rule to determine the width of the protection strip around Lake Nasser and the cultivation area.
Different locations for pollution sources at distances of 2.4, 3.6, 4.8, 6, 7.2, and 8.4 km from the lake’s border were simulated for a 100-year test period considering its highest and lowest water levels. The safety distance from the cultivation areas and the lake border to establish the industrial activities was defined as a protection margin.

6. Results and Discussion

6.1. Flow Model Calibration for Aquifer’s Hydraulics

The calibrated steady-state flow model was assessed by comparing simulated and observed heads. The adjusted model simulation demonstrated a correlation coefficient (r) of 1.00 and a normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) of 0.608%. The value of the obtained root mean square error (RMSE) was 0.243 m, the mean error (ME) was 0.063 m, and the mean absolute error (MAE) was 0.187 m. From the correlation and error-based results, a good agreement between calculated and observed groundwater heads was obtained (Figure 6). The calculated conductivities were consistent with the reported values in the literature, ranging between a minimum of 0.5 m/d and a maximum of 15 m/d [41]. The model has thereby replicated the groundwater flow patterns in terms of the flow directions and the hydraulic gradients. The estimated hydraulic head throughout the modelled domain under the steady-state condition is shown in Figure 7. During the procedure of transient-state calibration, the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and specific yield were adjusted on a trial-and-error basis to fit the observed drawdown in response to pumping. Figure 8 shows the comparison between observed and simulated drawdown at the production well (i.e., W23) located in the centre of the well field. The calculated drawdown matched well with the observed drawdown from the pumping tests.
The adjusted model was also utilized to mimic the aquifer’s hydraulic behaviour under different hydrological scenarios, representing changes in the water level of Lake Nasser. Figure 9 depicts the investigated flow pattern of the modelled aquifer under two extreme conditions of Lake Nasser’s elevation (e.g., 182 and 158 m). Under the lake’s high water level (182 m), Lake Nasser recharges the aquifer. The flow direction is mainly from the lake to the aquifer (Figure 9a). On the contrary, a reverse recharge from the aquifer to Lake Nasser occurs in the case of the low water level (158 m) (Figure 9b). Consequently, the management of the proposed development project in the Toshka region should consider the hydrological condition of Lake Nasser.

6.2. Management Pumping Scheme

Invoking the calibrated model, the implication of the underway extensive exploitation was investigated. The proposed pumping regime of using 102 wells operating at an abstraction rate of 1000 m3/day/well was simulated. Figure 10 shows the simulated drawdown by the end of the test period (100 years) under the desired pumping policy. Figure 11 shows the maximum resulting drawdown during the simulation period. The maximum drawdown reached about 25 m within the middle of the well field. The simulated drawdown breakthrough is compliant with the MWRI’s regulations stating that the maximum annual drawdown should not exceed 0.4 m in a year [9]. It also is consistent with the reported values in the literature review [41,43].

6.3. Future Challenge Implication

As foregoing, the regulation-compatible pumping rate is 102 × 103 m3/day using 102 wells. This pumping rate is sufficient to irrigate a total area of 25,000 acres. Yet, climate change accompanied by the underway damming upstream of the Nile River may impose additional pressure on the aquifer to meet the increase in crop water requirements [62,63,64]. The required increase in the daily pumping rate to consider the corresponding increase in PET under RCP8.5, the worst-case CC scenario, was defined [68]. The resulting drawdown from assigning a time-increased withdrawal rate was 30 m (Figure 12), compared to 25 m when applying a fixed pumping rate of 1000 m3/day/well. The simulation affirmed the appropriateness of this management scenario with the drawdown rationalizing limit under climate change implications [9,41].
Additionally, the developed model was utilized to investigate the impact of a reduction in Lake Nasser’s water levels. Four hypothetical scenarios representing decreases of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, and 20 m in Lake Nasser’s water level during the incoming 100 years were assigned for the boundary condition along the lake border. Table 1 summarizes the resulting maximum drawdown after a 100-year simulation period under a fixed pumping rate of 1000 m3/day/well considering decreases of 5 m, 10 m, 15 m, and 20 m in Lake Nasser water levels, as shown in Figure 13. The results showed that the reduction in Lake Nasser’s water levels will trigger a decrease in the aquifer’s groundwater table [69].

6.4. Transport Model Calibration

The simulation was carried out for 50 stress periods that varied from a month to a year. These changing time steps facilitate lake–aquifer water mixing [70]. As the simulation progresses, the groundwater of the aquifer adjacent to the lake receives a lower salinity concentration [71]. The model outputs at the end of the calibration period were compared with the measured TDS concentrations at 29 observation points (see Figure 4b). The field measurements of the groundwater samples for TDS concentrations were retrieved from the Research Institute of Groundwater. Many trials were carried out to match the outputs of the solute transport model with the observation by adjusting dispersity parameters. The distribution (partition) coefficient was set as 1 × 10−7, while longitudinal dispersivity (αl) was assigned as a constant value of 1200 m, and the adopted ratios of transverse and vertical to longitudinal dispersivity were 0.05 and 0.005, respectively. In other words, the lateral dispersity (αl) and the vertical dispersity (αl) were set equal to 60 and 6 m, respectively. The molecular diffusion of 1.6416 × 10−10 m2/day was applied.
A good matching between TDS measurements and simulations was concluded, as shown in Figure 14a. To ensure the accuracy of the model, it was further run for a verification simulation. The simulation results were compared with the observed salinity concentration in 2022 obtained from the Research Institute of Groundwater. An acceptable agreement with measured TDS values is also depicted in Figure 14b. Figure 15 shows the TDS concentration distribution throughout the model domain, and the results show that the TDS values increased within the aquifer with increasing distance from Lake Nasser. The iso-chlorine 1000 and 2000 ppm were observed at 50 and 80 km from Lake Nasser, respectively (Figure 16). The first strip of width 50 km represents the favourable areas for different activities that entail freshwater, while rural development and cultivation activities may be feasible up to 80 km from the lake border.

6.5. Proposed Industrial-Activity-Induced Contamination

The developed solute transport model was utilized to simulate the lateral movement of industrial-activity-induced pollutants through the soil pores. A conservative pollution source (e.g., TDS) was allocated in different plots to be tested for appropriate locations for proposed industrial activities. The favourable location is one that ensures that pollution will not reach either the lake or the well field. The simulation was conducted for different years (10, 50, and 100 years) to obtain the mobility form of pollutants for a long time in the study area. Such a long simulation period produces a distinctive result, confirming that high-concentration pollutants have bypassed the soil pores [72]. The simulation was applied under different hydrological scenarios representing changes in the water level of Lake Nasser.
From Figure 17, Figure 18 and Figure 19 which represent the lateral movement of pollutants into the modelled aquifer, it was noticed that the pollution disperses around the proposed industrial plots. The pollution travelled at different distances, which varied according to the lake water levels, as summarized in Table 2.
In the case of the high-water level, it was found that after 100 years the plume diameter of the pollutant reached 10.8, 13.8, 10.2, 9.4, 9.4, and 9 km for the six investigated locations (Figure 17). Under this hydrology condition, the pollutants moved north-westward in the same direction as the groundwater flow. Regarding locations 1 and 2, the plume length after 100 years will reach 4.2 km from the starting point toward Lake Nasser. This implies that the pollutants will intrude into the lake. Accordingly, these two locations are unfavourable.
Under the normal water level condition of 170 m, it is shown that pollutants move more towards Lake Nasser (Figure 18). Accordingly, locations 1, 2, and 3 are not acceptable, as they cause pollutants to intrude into the lake after 100 years. The reduction in the lake water level will change the direction of groundwater flow and pollutant movement as well. Under a low water level of 158 m, contamination plumes with elliptical expansion toward the lake were explored (Figure 19). The movement distance in the east direction is bigger than that in the west direction. For instance, the pollutants leaching from location 6 will move to about 2.4 km eastward after 10 years, compared to 1.2 km in the west direction. In addition, after 50 years, the plume diameter reached 7.6 km with an increase of about 4 km. After 100 years, the contamination plume reached 9.6 km with an additional increase of about 2 km. The lake would be affected by pollution coming from location 1 after 10 years, and meanwhile, it will be affected by pollution from location 2 in 50 years. Moreover, allocating the proposed industrial activity to locations 3 and 4 may threaten the lake after 100 years. On the other hand, locations 5 and 6 are not causing pollution to intrude into the lake. Accordingly, the safety distance to allocate the pollution source should be more than 7.2 km.

7. Conclusions

A mega groundwater-dependent development project was advocated in Egypt with the strategic goal to reclaim the desert barren areas [9,15]. Extensive agriculture and fishery activities are being expanded in the Toshka district adjacent to Lake Nasser, in south Egypt. In this work, the mechanisms of groundwater flow and solute transport of the NSA in the Toshka region were thoroughly simulated using the MODFLOW package. The developed model was adjusted to correctly mimic the real aquifer system. The results of steady-state calibration indicated an average residual of 0.187 m and a variance of 0.243 m between the observed and modelled heads. The aquifer’s specific yield was spatially tuned according to the analysis of the well pumping test. The objective was to introduce comprehensive environmental impact assessment guidelines for development projects. The aquifer’s behaviour under the proposed stressful pumping conditions was simulated. Additionally, the lateral migration of non-reactive pollutants leaching from the ground surface through the aquifer’s porous media was delineated. The pumping regime of using 102 wells each abstracting 1000 m3/day for 100 years caused a drawdown breakthrough of 25 m within the well field. The resulting drawdown amounted to 40% of the aquifer’s saturation depth; thus, it coincides with the regulation rule set by the MWRI for the next 100 years. Considering the projected increment in crops’ water requirements under the CC catastrophic scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), the resulting drawdown has been raised by about 20%, reaching 30 m. Nevertheless, it is still compatible with advocated pumping rationing restrictions aiming at maintaining the drawdown not exceeding 40 cm/year. It thus appears that the proposed groundwater-dependent rural development plan for the Toshka region is sustainable considering climate change implications. However, the reduction in Lake Nasser’s storage, owing to the Nile River upstream damming, will trigger a further decrease in the aquifer’s groundwater table. It is concluded that the development projects in the Nile upstream countries require close collaboration to avoid threatening the sustainability of Egypt’s underway agribusiness.
The developed model was refined to simulate the pollutants’ transport through the aquifer’s porous media. The solute transport model was successfully calibrated and verified against observed TDS concentrations in the years 2016 and 2022. The results indicated that a strip of width 50 km is favourable for different activities that entail freshwater (TDS ≤ 1000 mg/L), while rural development may be feasible up to 80 km from the lake border. The lateral migration of conservative pollutants (e.g., TDS) leaching from the underway industrial development was simulated. The findings revealed the essence of having a protection strip to avoid pollutants intruding into the lake or the pumping well field. The safety distances around Lake Nasser were found to be 4.8, 6.0, and 7.2 km according to the lake operation condition (i.e., high, normal, and low storage conditions). Assessing the suggested protection margin according to the nature of each proposed industrial activity and anticipated effluents (emerging contaminants) is recommended. The generated model seems a supportive tool for the decision-makers in managing and planning the proposed development in the Toshka region sustainably. The results formulated the restrictive conditions for the government-advocated extensive development in the Toshka region to not endanger the NSA system or the lake ecosystem. It is urged to conduct a complete soil analysis within the unsaturated zone throughout the study area to capture the vertical infiltration of the liquid wastes into the aquifer porous media. Continuous monitoring of well heads, as well as the quality of the aquifer and Lake Nasser to conserve the water resources in the region, is essential.

Author Contributions

Conceptualization, S.A.K.F., A.S. and M.M.A.; methodology, S.A.K.F. and A.S.; software, S.A.K.F. and A.S.; validation, S.A.K.F., H.A.-A.A.-B. and A.S.; formal analysis, S.A.K.F., A.S., H.A.-A.A.-B., A.M.I.A.E. and M.M.A.; investigation, S.A.K.F., M.M.A., H.A.-A.A.-B. and A.M.I.A.E.; resources, H.A.-A.A.-B. and A.M.I.A.E.; data curation, S.A.K.F. and M.M.A.; writing—original draft preparation, S.A.K.F. and A.S.; writing—review and editing, M.M.A., H.A.-A.A.-B. and A.M.I.A.E.; visualization, M.M.A. and A.S.; supervision, M.M.A. and A.M.I.A.E. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript.

Funding

This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors.

Data Availability Statement

Research data are available from the corresponding author by request.

Acknowledgments

The authors would like to thank those responsible for the Egyptian Countryside Development Company, who is technically and administratively supervising the development project in Egypt. The authors would like to extend their gratitude and recognition to the academic editors and reviewers for their precious time and dedication to revising the manuscript.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors state no conflict of interest that could influence the work reported in this paper.

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Figure 1. A planning map of the Toshka development area showing the allocated plots for rural and industrial activities.
Figure 1. A planning map of the Toshka development area showing the allocated plots for rural and industrial activities.
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Figure 2. Geologic map and topographic features for the Toshka region, modified after [48].
Figure 2. Geologic map and topographic features for the Toshka region, modified after [48].
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Figure 3. Hydrological cross−sections of the NSA within the Toshka region, modified after [51].
Figure 3. Hydrological cross−sections of the NSA within the Toshka region, modified after [51].
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Figure 4. Adopted conceptual model domain showing boundary conditions and grids for (a) groundwater flow model and (b) solute transport model.
Figure 4. Adopted conceptual model domain showing boundary conditions and grids for (a) groundwater flow model and (b) solute transport model.
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Figure 5. A 3D view of the constructed model domain (depth is scaled up by 50 times).
Figure 5. A 3D view of the constructed model domain (depth is scaled up by 50 times).
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Figure 6. Results of steady−state calibration for the modelled aquifer showing a comparison between observed and simulated heads.
Figure 6. Results of steady−state calibration for the modelled aquifer showing a comparison between observed and simulated heads.
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Figure 7. Simulated hydraulic heads over the modelled domain.
Figure 7. Simulated hydraulic heads over the modelled domain.
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Figure 8. Calibration of the model under transient-state conditions using the pumping test data of the production well (i.e., W23).
Figure 8. Calibration of the model under transient-state conditions using the pumping test data of the production well (i.e., W23).
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Figure 9. The flow pattern of the modelled aquifer under two different lake levels: (a) 182 m and (b) 158 m.
Figure 9. The flow pattern of the modelled aquifer under two different lake levels: (a) 182 m and (b) 158 m.
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Figure 10. Simulated drawdown under the recommended pumping scheme (1000 m3/day) after 100 years.
Figure 10. Simulated drawdown under the recommended pumping scheme (1000 m3/day) after 100 years.
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Figure 11. Maximum drawdown resulting from the recommended pumping scheme (1000 m3/day) through a 100-year test period.
Figure 11. Maximum drawdown resulting from the recommended pumping scheme (1000 m3/day) through a 100-year test period.
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Figure 12. Simulated drawdown after 100 years for a time-increasing abstraction rate initiated by 1000 m3/day/well.
Figure 12. Simulated drawdown after 100 years for a time-increasing abstraction rate initiated by 1000 m3/day/well.
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Figure 13. Simulated drawdown after 100 years under a fixed pumping rate of 1000 m3/day/well considering decreases of (a) 5 m, (b) 10 m, (c) 15 m, and (d) 20 m in Lake Nasser’s water levels.
Figure 13. Simulated drawdown after 100 years under a fixed pumping rate of 1000 m3/day/well considering decreases of (a) 5 m, (b) 10 m, (c) 15 m, and (d) 20 m in Lake Nasser’s water levels.
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Figure 14. Comparison of measured and calculated TDS concentration for (a) calibration and (b) verification period.
Figure 14. Comparison of measured and calculated TDS concentration for (a) calibration and (b) verification period.
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Figure 15. Equilibrium salinity distribution (TDS in mg/L) of the model domain.
Figure 15. Equilibrium salinity distribution (TDS in mg/L) of the model domain.
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Figure 16. TDS concentration distribution in the model domain shows iso-chlorine 1000 and 2000 ppm.
Figure 16. TDS concentration distribution in the model domain shows iso-chlorine 1000 and 2000 ppm.
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Figure 17. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the high-water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Figure 17. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the high-water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Water 15 02183 g017
Water 15 02183 g018 550
Figure 18. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the normal water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Figure 18. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the normal water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Water 15 02183 g018
Water 15 02183 g019 550
Figure 19. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the low water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Figure 19. The lateral movement of conservative pollutants after 100 years in the study area in the case of the low water level of Lake Nasser at different locations.
Water 15 02183 g019
Table
Table 1. Maximum drawdown (m) after a 100-year simulation period considering a reduction in Lake Nasser’s water level.
Table 1. Maximum drawdown (m) after a 100-year simulation period considering a reduction in Lake Nasser’s water level.
Lake Water Level (m)Maximum Drawdown (m)
17025
16530
16033
15535
15036
Table
Table 2. Plume range (km) for different locations of pollution sources under low, normal, and high-water levels of Lake Nasser.
Table 2. Plume range (km) for different locations of pollution sources under low, normal, and high-water levels of Lake Nasser.
Low Water Level
(158 m)		Normal Water Level
(170 m)		High Water Level
(182 m)
EastWestEastWestEastWest
Location 1 (2.4 km)After 10 years2.81.81.82.21.62.4
After 50 years4.24.44.25.435.2
After 100 years4.264.26.64.26.6
Location 2 (3.6 km)After 10 years21.81.821.83.6
After 50 years4.24.23.44.83.27.2
After 100 years554.26.64.29.6
Location 3 (4.8 km)After 10 years2.21.81.82.21.62.3
After 50 years44.23.44.234.8
After 100 years554.863.66.6
Location 4 (6 km)After 10 years2.21.81.81.81.61.8
After 50 years4.23.83.64.234
After 100 years6.25.44.25.845.4
Location 5 (7.2 km)After 10 years2.21.61.81.81.61.6
After 50 years4.23.63.83.834
After 100 years5.44.84.2545.4
Location 6 (8.4 km)After 10 years2.41.221.41.61.6
After 50 years4.63433.43.6
After 100 years5.44.24.84.24.24.8
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Aly, M.M.; Abd Elhamid, A.M.I.; Abu-Bakr, H.A.-A.; Shalby, A.; Fayad, S.A.K. Integrated Management and Environmental Impact Assessment of Sustainable Groundwater-Dependent Development in Toshka District, Egypt. Water 2023, 15, 2183. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122183

AMA Style

Aly MM, Abd Elhamid AMI, Abu-Bakr HA-A, Shalby A, Fayad SAK. Integrated Management and Environmental Impact Assessment of Sustainable Groundwater-Dependent Development in Toshka District, Egypt. Water. 2023; 15(12):2183. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122183

Chicago/Turabian Style

Aly, Marwa M., Ahmed M. I. Abd Elhamid, Heba Abdel-Aziz Abu-Bakr, Ahmed Shalby, and Shymaa A. K. Fayad. 2023. "Integrated Management and Environmental Impact Assessment of Sustainable Groundwater-Dependent Development in Toshka District, Egypt" Water 15, no. 12: 2183. https://doi.org/10.3390/w15122183

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