‘The Business Case for Mass-market Deployment of Plugin Vehicles’

The Energy Technologies Institute has commissioned a portfolio of projects into plug-in vehicles. These projects have undertaken a detailed assessment of the business case for the mass-market deployment of plug-in vehicles in the UK and the required energy infrastructure. New research has been undertaken, together with analysis and modelling where appropriate to understand the interrelationships between government policy, consumer attitudes, automotive industry investment and energy industry investment. The effects of the wider macroeconomic environment have also been evaluated. These projects have conducted new research to develop a world-leading and comprehensive knowledgebase, based on an integrated system approach:
1. Detailed bottom-up projections of future vehicle characteristics, performance (such as electric range and efficiency) and costs to 2050 have been developed for the full range of future powertrain options (including plug-in vehicles and more conventional vehicles);
2. Consumer attitudes and behaviours have been researched through real-world trials and extensive surveys with ‘mass-market’ consumers, including a choice experiment to quantify consumers’ willingness to pay for specific vehicle attributes;
3. The requirements and costs for the supporting recharging infrastructure and its integration into the UK electricity system have been identified; and
4. The economics and carbon benefits have been evaluated in the context of plug-in vehicles as a component of the UK’s future low carbon energy and transport systems. This paper reflects work completed in mid 2011 by a consortium of Arup, Leeds University and E.ON, primarily focusing on item (4) [1] and drawing on insights from separate ETI projects into items (1) to (3).