Smart Mobility for Smart Cities—Electromobility Solution Analysis and Development Directions

Abstract

Smart mobility supports smart city ideas and concepts. A consequences of smart mobility activities are more wide and common using electromobility. There is no doubt that electromobility is a global trend that unequivocally supports the principles of sustainable development, while being one of the basic elements of the smart mobility. The following discussion critically addresses the indicated topic, especially in the context of the barriers that currently exist and that stand in the way of implementing the expected expansion of electric cars into urban markets. Considering the following assumptions, the threat of urban pollution associated with the increasing number of vehicles (passenger and freight) should be mitigated using smart mobility solutions. In addition, solutions should include that electromobility promotes zero-emissions. Furthermore, the inadequate development of charging infrastructure and the projected energy crisis may result in plans to develop the electromobility market in cities that are under threat and impossible to meet. We highlight the current state and development level of the electric vehicle market, in particular the market for light commercial vehicles (LCVs). In this market, electric cars account for less than 1% of total cars. In truth, as shown in articles in recent years, the growth of new electric cars is significant; however, as shown by forecasts, the growth is insufficient to achieve the planned goals so the market share of LCVs will only increase to about 25% in 2030 and there will only be about 600,000 electric LCVs on the market. In this article, the authors focus on answering the question of if the upcoming energy crisis can significantly affect the further dynamic development of electromobility as an element of the smart city and undermine the plans to create zero-emission economies, with a particular focus on cities. Not only do we point to electromobility as a positive trend, but we stress that optimistic assumptions in its development in the current economic situation, especially in Europe, may be difficult to realize. The theoretical assumptions are reflected in the statistical analyses and forecasts of market development and their interpretation.

1. Introduction

Electromobility is a global trend [1] and the solutions being implemented as part of the e-concept are set to become a panacea for the pollution problems facing modern urban centres. The intensification of travel, particularly urban travel using transport, as well as the increase in journeys related to the distribution of goods and fright transport in cities [2], which is a consequence of the development of e-commerce and the expansion of the package of courier services, especially in recent years as an impact of COVID-19 [3,4] as well as the continuous growth of the urban population, contribute to the fact that it is necessary to look for solutions to reduce traffic congestion, the occupation of roads, and the consumption of resources in the form of fuel, as well as the reduction in air pollution [5,6]. A challenge and, at the same time, a solution may be the implementation of the smart city concept, with particular emphasis on the concept of electromobility [7,8,9]. The beneficiaries of urban space expect urban managers to meet their needs in terms of reducing the negative impacts of urban freight transport by ensuring increased safety and reduced air pollution or noise pollution [10]. Electromobility primarily refers to the use of electric cars, e-bikes, e-motorbikes, e-buses, or e-trucks for travel and freight transport [11,12,13]. The prefix “e” clearly indicates that the vehicles are partially or fully electrically powered, obtaining their energy from the power grid, with energy storage means in the form of suitably designed batteries. In the context of cities and smart city solutions, such vehicles are ideal as delivery vehicles, taxis, shared cars, and, in the future, autonomous vehicles [14]. The unquestionable advantages of this type of vehicle include the lack of noise emissions, zero emissions, and efficiency [15].

Significant for the development and support of electromobility is the increase in the urban population. A consequence of this is the intensification of transport associated with the distribution of goods in cities and the provision of services [16]. The ever-increasing demand for transport results in urban congestion, as well as the increased energy consumption and thus also increased emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere. Currently, carbon dioxide (CO₂) accounts for 75% of global pollution and is projected to remain the biggest threat until 2050 [17]. In this context, the most vulnerable areas are urban areas, where the increase in moving vehicles is evident and people’s mobility is growing and the share of emissions is increasing, due to the fact that there are more and more vehicles [18]. Transport is responsible for almost a quarter of all greenhouse gases [19]. In the context of growing environmental awareness, public authorities are setting ambitious targets for reducing global and local pollution [20]. Achieving these goals requires coordinated efforts across all sectors, including transportation. The electrification of light commercial vehicles seems to be a key element in reducing long-term greenhouse gas and local pollutant emissions, particularly in cities [21,22]. It is therefore necessary to find solutions that will prevent the increasing emission of pollutants and fit into the assumptions of smart city solutions.

Despite the strong interest in electromobility, there are still obstacles limiting the commercial success of electric vehicles and their deployment [23,24]. Furthermore, the trends indicated should be treated critically. This is due, among other things, to the fact that it can be observed that the development of supporting infrastructure, in the form of charging systems, for example, is not keeping pace with the leap in sales (especially of passenger vehicles), which is due not only to good marketing and increasingly better price offers, but also in terms of accessibility. Some of the vehicles are becoming flagship solutions from manufacturers, with zero-emission requirements and the concessions offered to users encouraging purchases [25]. However, there is another side to the coin, which it is important to consider and be aware of. While, these vehicles are still much more expensive than traditional ones, which may be an obstacle to the development of the envisaged electromobility, the range covered on a single charge is quite small and there is a lack of supporting facilities, including charging stations [26]. In addition, there are still user concerns about ensuring the safety of this type of vehicle [27], especially in relation to batteries and the danger of ignition [28]. There is also not always an adequate legal basis for the development of the concept [29], which does not favour the purchase of an electric vehicle [30]. In most cases, especially in Europe, due to the perennially low production of energy from renewable sources, these vehicles draw their energy from traditional sources [31]. This does not change the fact that by using them in cities, for example, they do not emit harmful substances, but this is not exactly using clean energy. Traditional, coal-fired power stations emit harmful substances, but they are far from cities. Further trends and developments in electromobility should also be considered from this point of view. In addition, the last few years and the COVID-19 pandemic have led to a large development of the e-commerce market. Online shopping has become an everyday occurrence for a large number of the population, so the number and possibilities of using electric vehicles to transport freight and goods, especially in the context of light electric vehicles, should also be considered in the context of cities [32]. In this respect, their number and the technological possibilities offered by manufacturers are not yet satisfactory, and a major problem arises with the charging infrastructure, which is not extensive [33]. One more aspect is the disposal of batteries. This is also a definite weakness and an underdevelopment in the context of sustainability. This is also the context in which we would like to present our further considerations, not only to present trends in electromobility, knowing that it is a necessary and indispensable element for the further intelligent development of economies, but also in the context of indicating a different, critical point of view. This critical approach is a novel consideration. We show that plans and assumptions are good and advisable for the development of environmentally neutral economies. Unfortunately, there is a lack of a holistic approach to the development of electromobility, especially in the area of the freight transportation in the cities, while also simultaneously responding to the needs that arise. These data and forecasts clearly show that not all elements of the electromobility market are developing at the same pace to meet the goals of a zero-carbon economy.

2. Research: Gap, Questions, Thesis, and Process Framework

The research gap in the scope of the presented considerations can be defined as the need to investigate the actual state of play regarding the implementation of smart mobility solutions, with a particular emphasis on the use of light-duty (commercial) vehicles and relating this to the plans and assumptions for zero-emission in European cities, as well as the rate of growth of this vehicle market, while also considering the legitimacy and risks that may arise in this regard due to the expected energy crisis and insufficient saturation of cities with charging infrastructure. There is no shortage of research literature on electromobility. Many studies point to issues relating to new fuels, technologies, accessibility and barriers, and the fulfilment of sustainability principles and support for this with smart mobility measures, as well as the development of future development scenarios. However, there is not much research in this area directed towards light-duty vehicles and their role in supporting smart mobility, electromobility, and smart cities. The aim of this article is, on the one hand, to review the literature on electromobility, its positive and negative implications and, focusing on the market of light commercial vehicles (LCVs), to identify possible directions and barriers to the development of this market. A research gap is therefore being identified in this area. Based on the identified gap, the following research questions were posed: can the upcoming energy crisis significantly affect the further dynamic development of electromobility as an element of the smart city and undermine plans to create zero-emission economies, with a particular focus on cities? Two hypotheses are also considered: RH1: the increasing pollution risks of urban areas related to the increasing number of vehicles (passenger and freight) should be mitigated by using smart city solutions, including electromobility promoting zero emissions; RH2: the insufficiency of charging infrastructure and the projected energy crisis, linked to geopolitical implications in Europe, contributes to the fact that the stated goals of emission reduction and market development and implementation of electric vehicles in cities are at risk and impossible to meet. The research process is illustrated in Figure 1.

The discussion is structured as follows. Section 3 briefly presents important issues related to the theoretical aspect of defining and understanding smart cities and electromobility as new tools supporting city management, while Section 4 identifies practical solutions for electromobility in the city with an analysis of automotive market data with some fact and figures. Next, Section 5 shows the scenarios and forecast data in research areas, while Section 6 critically discusses the development of electromobility and then points out the limitations and novelty of the considerations. The article concludes with a summary and conclusion, which also include suggestions for future development and research in the area under study.

The contributions of this paper are as follows: a discussion on the implementation of smart city principles, with a particular focus on electromobility in cities, and a critical analysis on the implementation of the concept in relation to the shortcomings of electromobility infrastructure. The discussion was focused on the smart mobility aspect, related to solutions for electric light goods vehicles used to serve the city and an analysis of the development of supporting infrastructure (charging points).

The contribution of the article goes beyond an analysis of the current state of affairs and an indication of what solutions are being promoted in the field of smart electromobility, but is first and foremost an assessment and critique of the theoretical assumptions for the development of electromobility infrastructure, which lags behind and do not correspond with the theoretical assumptions contained in many strategic documents, both at the national and EU regulatory levels. The discussion is based on a literature analysis methodology in the fields of smart city [34], electromobility [35], and also aspects of infrastructure [36] in a quantitative context by drawing knowledge from reports (ACEA). Methodological aspects related to case studies and implemented solutions were also used, which is particularly valuable for understanding new and emerging phenomena for which no empirical evidence or theory is yet available [37]. Analyses of the statistical data and strategic documents pointing to further desirable research directions in this area allow conclusions to be drawn, as well as criticisms of existing solutions.

3. Literature Review—Smart City and Electromobility—New Solution for the Urban Areas

Cities need to transform and adapt to the new requirements of their stakeholders, respond to the risks and challenges (e.g., growing energy needs, congestion, pollution), and exploit the opportunities offered by the environment and electromobility technologies [38]. Cities are adopting not only the label, but also smart growth strategies as an overarching perspective for expressing their transformation [39]. Regardless of the definition of a smart city, six key areas can be identified for this concept: smart mobility, environment, living, people, economy, and management. Although it should be made clear that there is no consensus [40,41] on what exactly a smart city is and what needs to be conducted to become one area, therefore, for sustainable transport and electromobility [42]. It is important to remember that the innovation at the urban level refers only to new ideas and practices [43,44]. There has been a significant increase in interest in the subject since 2012, when the number of publications containing smart city terms reached more than 200,000 per year [45]. This clearly predestines the undertaking of research in this area. Most publications, however, are descriptions of the status quo or point to the benefits of solutions. It is therefore worth taking a critical approach to the indicated subject matter.

Undoubtedly, sustainable transport [46] that does not endanger public health or ecosystems, that meets access needs, and that is compatible with the use of renewable resources below the level of their regeneration and with the use of non-renewable resources below the level of development of renewable substitutes is one element of sustainable mobility [47]. The elements of a modern sustainable urban mobility policy can include [8,9,10,11,12,13,14,15,16,17,18,19,20,21,22,23,24,25,26,27,28,29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37,38,39,40,41,42,43,44,45,46,47,48,49]: the proper management of urban spaces and strengthening the role of public transport and the creation of infrastructure for non-motorized traffic, but also support for modern technologies and innovation, including the promotion of electric transport. The main objective of implementing sustainable mobility tasks is [50] to strive for the simultaneous perception of the impact of all human activities on the environment, social cohesion, and the prospects for economic development both now and in the future, which involves making the best use of scarce resources, increasing economic competitiveness, improving the environment, and enhancing the social cohesion of cities [51,52]. Smart mobility objectives can be related to reducing pollution, reducing congestion, increasing the safety of people moving through cities, reducing noise pollution, reducing costs, and increasing speed [53]. Smart mobility [54] can refer to private mobility and innovative solutions for the use of alternatively powered vehicles. In this respect, the solutions concern initiatives carried out by private citizens and companies, which are supported and stimulated by public entities and are part of a broader electromobility policy implemented either by local or national governments. The scope of interventions in this field primarily includes the use of hybrid and electric cars and related initiatives.

The trend towards electromobility, as part of innovative smart city solutions, is an important part of sustainable lifestyles and such solutions that will be implemented in the next few years. Statistical data clearly indicate that the number of electric vehicles is constantly increasing, both in their production and in the interest among customers [55]. This means that infrastructure development must become a key factor in the adoption of electromobility solutions [56], for both individuals and businesses.

In the field of smart cities, research and practical projects have been carried out to varying extents and in different contexts for many years. The context of smart mobility, linked to the use of modern transport, is becoming an important element of research in this area [57,58,59,60,61,62,63,64]. The expected benefits of the smart city will fall into the categories of efficiency, effectiveness, and quality of service [65]. The results of the implemented smart city concepts can be divided into different categories [66], relating to efficiency (cost savings), effectiveness (improved service quality) and social challenges (sustainability, social inclusion). The efficiency aspects are achieved, for example, through the use of modern energy solutions, which reduce energy consumption, street lighting costs, and water efficiency initiatives, and improve waste management processes. The efficiency context of initiatives can be related to improving the safety and security of urban spaces, improving air quality, or the e-government allowing better access to public services and information for urban stakeholders. The social context is linked to issues related to energy networks and initiatives aimed at increasing sustainable mobility, particularly transport mobility, with reference to the protection of cultural heritage, increasing cultural value, and social initiatives related to social inclusion and combating exclusion [39]. With such a view, urban mobility initiatives including electromobility and sustainable transport are bound to bear fruit in all three dimensions. There is no doubt that electromobility will soon become an important element of future intelligent urban transport systems [18]. Assuming this context, electromobility projects should be included in smart city projects, such as extensive vehicle charging systems, energy management using smart grids, and the expansion of the smart city concept for freight transport with electric freight transport systems, as well as electromobility strategies.

In the concept and assumption phase, renewable energy and sustainability principles should be incorporated into development plans in this area. A noticeable trend is the increase in the production of electric vehicles; in this respect, it is important that the development of charging infrastructures should be key to the adoption of electromobility among city dwellers. On the other hand, it is necessary to take a critical approach to the indicated phenomena related to the development of electromobility. With regard to the smart mobility concept, it is important to point out that it is not a unique initiative, but a complex set of projects and activities, varying in purpose, content, and technological intensity [39].

Innovation can accelerate the implementation of electromobility, zero-carbon, or decarbonization concepts, but the various infrastructure components must be developed simultaneously. Environmental protection is a major global policy objective in cities, and low-carbon mobility is particularly important in order to be able to talk about a transition to a circular economy that not only meets the needs identified in policies, but actually addresses the needs of human mobility and freight transport in a holistic, systemic, and integrated way. Various policies and policy documents are taking initiatives in this regard. The OECD and the UN address the topic of smart mobility in their policy documents, setting appropriate targets and objectives to be achieved [67,68].

At the European Union level, these issues have been addressed and reflected in published and adopted policy documents for many years. The most important EU documents include [18]:

• “Climate and Energy Package”, ‘Europe 2020: A European Strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’, adopted in 2010; ‘Europe 2020: A strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth’ [69];
• ‘Roadmap for moving to a competitive low-carbon economy in 2050’ [70,71];
• Transport White Paper (Roadmap to a Single European Transport Area—Towards a competitive and resource efficient transport system EC [72]. The documents contain ambitious targets which should be met. In particular, the White Paper states that in 2050, greenhouse gas emissions will be reduced by 80–95% and that a target of a 60% reduction in transport greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 is indicated.)
• “A European Strategy for Low-emission Mobility”, which identifies three areas of action with corresponding priorities, indicating the acceleration of the deployment of low-carbon alternative energy in transport, the removal of barriers to the implementation of electromobility in transport, and the transition to electric vehicles EC [73];
• ‘Clean Energy For All Europeans’ EC [74], in which information is provided on the need for an energy union and an electricity infrastructure in the EU as one of the conditions for the future linking of transport and energy systems;
• ‘Urban Mobility Package’ adopted in December 2013, which again proposes fundamental changes in the way urban mobility is designed and managed [75];
• Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans (SUMPs) prepared following the European Commission’s guidelines. The EC also made recommendations on the main areas of urban transport management urban transport management, emphasising the role of smart solutions, in particular limiting the access to city centres through road pricing and congestion charging;
• Others [76,77,78,79,80].

In addition to official documents, both public and private institutions should implement various types of good practices, such as methodologies, projects, processes, techniques, and technologies that have already been demonstrated, implemented, and successful in order to achieve their goals in the context of electromobility. Good practices are diverse in nature, both in terms of their objectives and their scope, and they can become elements in the promotion of electromobility. We should not only refer to official documents created at the governmental or community levels, but also promote solutions through good practices [81].

4. Electromobility in Smart Cities—LCV Context

The research methodology was based on a critical analysis of the literature, assumptions, and political-administrative plans, and an empirical reflection of the current state of infrastructure and the development plans based on descriptive statistics. Thus, it can be pointed out that the methods used in the publication include a combination of a theoretical review and an empirical investigation, based on the literature published so far and the actual quantitative state of the infrastructure supporting electromobility, in particular, the market of light commercial vehicles (LCVs).

4.1. Electromobility in Cities—Practical Solution in the Context of Smart Cities

Based on the latest data [82], the global smart city solutions market was valued at EUR 1024 billion in 2021 and is expected to be worth EUR 6540 billion in 2030. At the same time, it is expected to grow 24.2% from 2022 to 2030. The growth drivers are mainly the need for environmental protection, efficient management, and the use of electricity. Electromobility is also definitely catching up with these trends

In the context of both the development of the smart city concept and the electromobility that supports it, various types of solutions and financing models for infrastructure development and management systems are being proposed and will play a major role in the further expansion of this market [83].

According to 2021 figures, the smart transport segment accounted for 20% of the smart cities market. The increase in the vehicles on the road, together with the accompanying need to sensitise the concept of sustainability, is encouraging the growth of this market. However, the accompanying infrastructure is not quite keeping up with this trend; moreover, the lack of adequately implemented intelligent traffic and transport flow management systems is forcing the creation of appropriate alternative traffic management technology. Batteries are actually the most important component of an electric vehicle. The cost of this component here currently fluctuates between 35–45% of the price of the entire vehicle [84]. The size of the electric vehicle battery market is forecasted to grow from EUR 25.5 billion in 2021 to EUR 79.1 billion in 2026 [85]; the technological challenges facing manufacturers in this area relate to achieving longer and longer battery lives, reducing battery manufacturing and operating costs, faster charging, and more power and recyclability.

Despite these challenges, it is unanimous that electromobility is an important exponent of smart city strategies. The potential and positive effects of deployments not only reduce emissions from road transport, but also allow smart city concepts to be developed in other areas. This includes new solutions for mobility, energy consumption, public services, residential and commercial buildings, wider urban systems, citizen’s involvement, and behavioural change [86].

4.2. Automotive Market Data Analysis—LCV Context

This research includes collected source data available in reports on the automotive market. In the first step, an analysis was carried out on statistical data related to the light commercial vehicles (LCVs) market in the European Union over the last 10 years. This analysis allows conclusions to be drawn in relation to the changes in the LCVs market and the impact on this market after the entry of eLCVs. In addition, possible scenarios for the development of the LCV market are presented based on the forecasts made from the data. BEVs (battery electric vehicles) and PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles) will be considered electric cars in this study. In the BEV type of car, there is no internal combustion engine in the car, and propulsion is provided only by an electric motor or motors. PHEV stands for plug-in hybrid, that is, the ability to recharge from a socket and force driving on the pure electric mode. Such vehicles have a larger battery than regular hybrid cars—the battery capacity is usually 10–13 kWh. A full charge allows driving for about 50 km in the zero-emission mode.

4.3. Fact and Figures

The global LCV market was valued at USD 463 billion in 2020 and is projected to reach USD 786.5 billion by 2030. In the Europe Union, over 11 million LCVs were registered in 2021. Vans represent more than 80% of the sales (in units) in the commercial vehicle market (which also includes trucks, heavy trucks, buses, and coaches). Largely used by small and medium enterprises as tools, vans power the European economy, helping businesses to thrive. Thanks to vans, businesses can deliver goods right to the door of their customers, who expect rapid and direct deliveries. However, the van fleet in Europe is aging. The average age of the EU van fleet is 11.6 years and rising [87].

The average age of light commercial vehicles in the EU is 11.9 years (Figure 2). Of the EU’s four major markets, Italy has the oldest van fleet (13.8 years), followed closely by Spain (13.3 years). The consequence of an aging vehicle fleet for companies will be rising operating costs, as well as the need to replace them with newer models, due to zero-emission zones—especially in large cities.

Despite ambitious legislation (such as Fit for 55), the electric car market occupies only a small percentage of the total market. The graph in Figure 3 shows the percentage of the market share of BEVs, PHEVs, and alternative fuel type cars in 2020. It can be seen that BEVs and PHEVs comprise only about 1% of the total market share, with slightly more cars with alternative fuel type cars. For the LCV sector, this percentage comes out even worse, only 0.4% for BEVs and 0.1% for PHEVs.

In the LCVs market, the increases are also significant, although not as large as for the passenger cars. In 2020, almost 30,000 electric vans were sold, representing 2.9% of the market share and an increase of around 1.6 percentage points from 2019. In 2021, it is almost 4.7% of the market share [88]. The number of newly registered LCVs from 2010 is shown in the Figure 4. It can be observed that the number of electric cars (both BEVs and PHEVs) is increasing, while the sales with other alternative fuels (LPG, CNG) are decreasing.

5. Forecasts and Scenarios

The recently proposed legislation in the EU (Fit for 55) sets targets to cut CO₂ emissions from cars by 55% and vans by 50% by 2030. It also proposes to completely cut emissions from cars and vans by 2035. In Figure 5, data are presented on the percentage of the LCVs market that occupies electric cars (BEVs and PHEVs) and the total number electric cars (BEVs and PHEVs), along with a forecast, based on EAFO [89].

In the prediction (Figure 5 and Figure 6), it was decided to use polynomials, as the models using them had the best fit to the data (highest coefficient of determination R²). It should be mentioned that, of course, the number of BEVs and PHEVs depends on a number of factors, which are described later, and the graphs show how the number of cars would change under the same conditions. It can be observed that ambitious targets for reducing emissions from internal combustion engines will be difficult to achieve at the current rate of change. At this rate, the market share of LCVs will only increase to about 25% in 2030 (Figure 5) and there will only be about 600,000 electric LCVs on the market (Figure 6). The economic case for electrifying LCVs is stronger than for cars in cases such as urban delivery, since LCV fleets are driven intensively and often operate on predictable routes and can be charged at commercial depots. The fact that the uptake of electric LCVs has been slower than cars in most markets to date may be attributable to a mix of factors, including less stringent fuel economy and ZEV regulations, fewer model options, and a diversity of use profiles—including lower annual mileage [90]. Recently, additional factors that may inhibit the development of the electric LCV market may be the fact that electricity prices are rising across the EU many times more than fuel prices. In contrast to some western European countries, there is still a lack of infrastructure—mainly chargers—in countries in the southern and eastern parts of the EU; not only are there no chargers on expressways and highways, but there are also far too few in large cities. If a car in private use can afford an unforced stop (because, i.e., the charger is occupied), then in the case of the commercial car market, where operation is definitely more intensive, companies cannot afford such stops in daily logistics.

One of the main incentives to switch to an electric fleet so far has been the cost of usage, mainly the lower cost than traditional fuels (

Table 1. Average cost of fuel per 100 km by selected European country (2022 1st quarter).

Country	Electricity (EUR)	Petrol 95 E10 (EUR)	Diesel B7 (EUR)	CNG (EUR)	LPG (EUR)	Hydrogen (EUR)
Belgium	4.60	10.10	8.80	6.40	4.90	9.00
Cyprus	3.83	9.88	8.58	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Denmark	8.59	10.76	8.27	n.a.	n.a.	13.45
Finland	3.96	10.75	10.90	7.21	6.48 *	n.a.
France	2.90	9.30	7.00	6.00	6.60	11.30
Germany	5.84	11.74	9.05	6.48	6.63	7.6
Italy	n.a.	10.66	7.91	7.46	6.10	n.a.
Luxembourg	3.12	9.76	8.78	6.31	6.28	n.a.
Netherlands	5.31	12.32	8.66	7.52	7.78	10.89
Norway	n.a.	12.86	9.70	n.a.	n.a.	n.a.
Poland	5.31	8.63	6.71	5.23	4.70	n.a.
Sweden	3.48	12.54	13.06	12.51	n.a.	15.06

* compressed biomethane Source: EAFO [89].

). Table 1 provides the fuel price comparison—overviews the different fuel price comparisons offered by the selected European country (i.e., based on the local fuel prices) in accordance with Art. 7(3) of the Alternative fuels infrastructure Directive 2014/94/EU.

Table 1 shows that in the first quarter of 2022, the average cost of fuel per 100 km in selected EU countries was more than double that of traditional fuels (petrol and diesel), and even 50% lower than the ever-popular LPG. The cheapest 100 km could be driven, using an electric car, in France and Luxembourg, and the highest cost was in Denmark—here as the only country the cost was higher than diesel. Unfortunately, the situation in the energy market has changed dramatically in the last year. When thinking about the future of the European LCV market, rising electricity prices must be taken into account.

EU and global energy prices have been rising sharply since the second half of 2021. Although the economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and the relaxation of transportation restrictions were expected to some extent, energy prices are higher than expected. The prices began to rise in 2021 and did not stop in 2022. The problem was further exacerbated by Russia’s military aggression against Ukraine. Several factors have contributed to the continuous price increase since 2021:

• Unprecedented increases in gas prices on world markets (by more than 170% in 2021) and in the EU (by more than 150% between July 2021 and July 2022);
• Extreme climatic conditions, including summer heat waves across Europe, which are increasing the demand for energy for cooling purposes and putting more pressure on electricity generation;
• Greater demand for LNG, with a consequent surge in its price;
• Greater gas consumption in Asia resulting from the economic recovery;
• A recent shortage of nuclear and hydroelectric power generation, partly related to climatic conditions.

As depicted in Figure 7, electricity prices in the first half of 2022 for non-household consumers (medium-sized consumers with an annual consumption between 500 MWh and 2 000 MWh) were highest in Greece (EUR 0.3042 per kWh) and Italy (EUR 0.2525 per kWh). The lowest prices were observed in Finland (EUR 0.0808 per kWh) and Sweden (EUR 0.1117 per kWh). The EU average price in the first semester of 2022 was EUR 0.1833 per kWh. The aggregates are weighted averages, taking into consideration the average consumption in each band.

Figure 7 shows the development of electricity prices for non-household consumers in the EU since the first half of 2008. The price without taxes, i.e., the energy, supply, and network, was increasing similarly to the overall inflation until 2012, when it peaked at EUR 0.0943 per kWh in the first semester. Afterwards, it was decreasing until 2020. In the second half of 2019, for example, it was at EUR 0.0781 per kWh, whereas in the second half of 2020 it increased and stood at EUR 0.0820 per kWh, which is still lower than the first half of 2008 price. By contrast, in the first half of 2022, there is a steep increase, with the price without taxes standing at EUR 0.1602 per kWh, the highest value and the highest increase, compared with the previous reference period since this data collection started. For the prices adjusted for inflation, the total price for non-household consumers, i.e., including taxes, was EUR 0.1244 per kWh in the first half of 2022, compared to EUR 0.0968 per kWh in the first half of 2008. This price is lower than the actual price including taxes. The total price for non-household consumers, i.e., without taxes, was EUR 0.1072 per kWh in the first half of 2022, compared to EUR 0.0834 per kWh in the first half of 2008. This price is higher than the actual price excluding taxes.

The data presented in Figure 8 shows that the electricity prices have risen significantly in the past two years (excluding taxes, more than double). Further large increases in many countries are expected after January 1, 2023. Given the data in Table 1 about the cost of driving 100 km using an electric car, it will no longer be as cost-effective, perhaps even less so, as traditional fuels. When predicting the development of the e-LCVs market, this should be taken into account as one of the main factors that could shake its growth rate, which, as we have shown, has so far been insufficient to meet the assumed levels in 2030 anyway (Fit for 55). Entrepreneurs who face the choice of replacing their aging fleets, seeing the rising cost of electricity and the high uncertainty in this market, may not be willing to invest in e-LCVs, which are also more expensive than their traditional fuel-powered counterparts.

6. Critical Discussion, Analysis of Electromobility Barriers, and Development Directions

As mentioned earlier, the various assumptions regarding infrastructure development must be in line with each other and some elements must even be ahead of trends. It is not a good or desirable situation as we are currently seeing in the European market, particularly in the context of the LCVs market. The popularity of electric vehicles is steadily increasing and the charging infrastructure is being developed, but not at pace to meet the growing needs. The optimal ratio of electric vehicles to charging points is considered to be between 5 and 25. This condition is met by few countries [92]. Studies indicate that there must be an appropriate ratio that exists between public charging points and the number of cars, especially in the initial phase of introducing electromobility [93]. Factors limiting the development of the electromobility market can be divided into external, internal, and those relating to the extent to which appropriate electromobility policies are implemented [94]. In addition, there is still insufficient technological performance, including the range on a single charge, to talk about the rapid development and implementation of this type of vehicle in the fleet of delivery vehicles serving cities. Another element is the time taken to recharge the battery; despite increasingly better solutions and shorter times, not all chargers are suitable for this, and the density of the charging network is also insufficient. In addition, there are two further reasons that may have a bearing on the failure to meet targets in terms of vehicle numbers and pollution reduction. These are the energy crisis and the associated volatility of energy prices and problems with the fluidity, stability, and reliability of automotive supply chains. The waiting time for a new car, the lack of stability and guarantees of its price, as well as uncertainties related to the operating costs may be factors hindering the development and implementation of electromobility in a smart city. All of this will not encourage EU entrepreneurs to switch, most often from a diesel-powered fleet, to electric vans anytime soon.

Another controversy is the lack of appropriate technologies for the recycling and disposing of electric car batteries. In terms of the need to implement not only the concept of sustainable development, but also that of a closed cycle economy, the lack of a closed cycle indicates the need to undertake further technical and technological research to solve these problems, and for solutions to be considered from a holistic perspective. The criticism of the solutions adopted is intended to indicate and raise awareness of the fact that, firstly, the strategic plans which are created at administrative levels and determined by environmental policy are correct; however, all the elements making up the systems must be adapted to the specific assumptions. Actions that suboptimize one system, including the promotion and increasing availability of electric vehicles, do not solve the problems, but only mitigate them, indicating that such solutions can be part of a larger system. For them to become a predominant part of it, the other elements must also be supported. In addition, there is still a lack of political incentives that are attractive enough to make them widely used and that their imperfections are not a deterrent to purchase [95]. Another element that points to a critical approach to the development of electromobility is the lack of code-switching at this stage of development, compared with traditional engines (petrol or diesel). This may also lead to reluctance, as additional services and the whole service market, at this point, will have to be reshaped, so some services will no longer be necessary [96].

The price of such a vehicle still determines the purchase, and there is no doubt that the initial cost of electric vehicles is higher, but already during their lifetime this trend will change, and they will become cheaper, due to cheaper electricity. The price of an electric vehicle is in the range of the price of a luxury vehicle and not that of a typical mid-range vehicle. Another insurmountable barrier for now, and one that does not encourage purchase, is the range of electric vehicles. The battery capacity in the current EVs ranges from 17.6 kWh in the Smart EQ, which translates to a maximum driving range of 58 miles, to 100 kWh in the Tesla Model S, which offers a maximum range of 351 miles. The barriers most frequently mentioned in the literature include the lack of charging infrastructure; economic barriers (including high purchase and usage costs); technical and technological limitations; lack of trust, adequate information, and knowledge [96,97]; higher initial investments [98]; charging times; and limited ranges. The lack of financial and non-financial incentives (especially in poorer countries, where there is less purchasing power, but also less awareness and knowledge) lessens the overall public support and authorities’ willingness to build charging infrastructure and raise awareness of the benefits of such solutions [99].

The development of the electromobility market, and LCVs market in particular, definitely requires a change in business models [100] and supply chains for such products, and not only the cars themselves, but also the supporting components (including chargers, batteries). Another barrier to development, and at the same time a direction, is the need for repair centres or auto-repair shops of individual vehicle dealers to have the right staff who can repair damaged vehicles. This is a skill that many mechanics do not yet have, which means there is a gap in the market and a need for rapid staff training in this area. The development of services for this market also needs to be planned accordingly [101]. In addition, the far greater material intensity of low-carbon technologies may, on the one hand, ensure an increase in production and national GDP, but their disadvantage is certainly the need for additional imports of components and sub-assemblies for which the market is not yet highly developed, with the consequences of long waiting times and shortages.

Many studies have indicated that technological developments will contribute to a reduction in the price of electric cars, but the COVID-19 pandemic has contributed to the opposite trend, as the shortage of batteries, lithium, and individual components, including semiconductors, has not had the expected results in terms of reducing the price of the final product. Further barriers include charging problems, here not only the lack of availability and sufficient numbers of chargers, but also the speed of charging and its variation from vehicle to vehicle. The energy market situation and volatile fuel prices will certainly be an obstacle [102].

The context of access to infrastructure has two angles. While more and more chargers are appearing in urban areas, the situation is worse on motorways or in the countryside, where there is no public access to infrastructure. Locating a charging station in a rural area can be a hassle, and once the user has found a station, he or she may encounter another problem with the type of charger or connector fit. This can also be a reason for discouraging the purchase of such vehicles. A big role for initiatives to succeed is played by city authorities, a harmonised single market approach on zero-emission urban zones that would stimulate innovation and competitiveness and turn several specific environmental challenges into one real green deal.

Market developments and electromobility as a support of smart mobility must be driven by benefits. Among the most important are those related to sustainability—environmental, economic, and social, as well as technical [92]. Incentives for users are needed, including subsidies and tax breaks [103]. This is definitely the direction that will allow for the further rapid expansion of this market. The large-scale implementation of this type of solution, requires the charging infrastructure already indicated [104].

Certainly, an improvement in the indicator concerning the optimum ratio of public chargers to vehicles will support the development of electromobility as part of smart mobility. Electromobility is also developing unevenly in the countries of the EU, and for better and balanced development of this market, uniform rules, support elements, impulses, and support systems for market development should be introduced, which will be coherent, understandable, and supportive of electromobility development. The development of electromobility also means new jobs [95,105], new professions, and the need for new educational systems and pathways in the training of new staff.

Researchers have been carrying out studies in this area for quite some time now, and this is reflected in the Electromobility Potential Index (EPI), which assesses the potential of a city using selected weighted criteria relating to the conditions a city has in the socio-economic context, an assessment of the city’s infrastructure, and the cost of an electric vehicle [106,107,108]. Unfortunately, electromobility as an element of innovation that still has problems with the diffusion and rapid spread in cities, so initiatives should be created to support these aspects [109]. An adequate market and competitor response is of great importance for the development of this sector and its implementation in cities, but this can only happen if an appropriate electromobility promotion policy is developed, cooperation between various institutions is established and appropriate defence mechanisms are implemented against the effects of unforeseen events, i.e., an appropriate policy for managing the risk of such events. By analysing the research carried out in the field of smart city and electromobility, it should be pointed out that it is the incentives that are becoming an important factor positively influencing the share of electric vehicles in the market [110], as well as the implementation of restrictive policies and appropriate enforcement tools having an impact on the further development of electromobility. The measures taken must also be targeted at the types and categories of drivers, some of whom are more likely to purchase such a vehicle than others. To conclude the discussion, it is important to point out that not all tools, policies, and solutions implemented as part of smart city or overall electromobility strategies are equally effective and even similar solutions can produce different results, depending on the implementation or target market. New smart mobility technologies can decisively influence social change and people’s lives in the cities of the future [111], following trends by not only introducing electric vehicles but also autonomous vehicles into urban areas [112]. Accelerating the adoption of electric vehicles and realizing the benefits of smart electromobility requires coordinated action within a network of organizations, so initiatives should be supported as they will enable cities to accelerate and drive the green trans-formation, improving the perception of the city as well as their perception and evaluation by stakeholders; this will also allow them to accelerate the implementation of green solutions, create economic recovery, and, above all, balance the transport system. Long-term changes to the transport system that can have a positive impact on climate action [113].

Another important element is the development of the charging infrastructure itself, in terms of where it is located. An analysis of the distribution of chargers shows that they are most often located in city centres, private car parks, or housing estate car parks. This means that the inhabitants of these districts do not and are unlikely to have problems finding a place to charge.

7. Conclusions

The novelty of the reflections and the contribution to the discipline is the innovative and critical approach to the development of electromobility in smart city concepts. The article shows how the concepts are developing, how the accompanying infrastructure is developing, and how projected economic elements such as energy prices may affect the implementation of electromobility in cities. As can be seen from the considerations presented, there are many factors limiting the uptake of electromobility and its development as planned. Therefore, issues related to the implementation and promotion of electromobility should be considered multifaceted and from different points of view.

Both research hypotheses were positively confirmed. Regarding the first issue, the review of smart city solutions clearly shows that there are more and more areas in cities that are at risk of pollution due to the increasing number of vehicles. Solutions promoting zero emissions, including those based on electromobility, will help to reduce this phenomenon. With regard to hypothesis two, it should be pointed out that it was positively verified during the analyses. The figures and a review of the literature, as well as the projections made, indicate that the strategic goals set at various decision-making levels (from supra-national to local strategies) may not be met and are at risk due to an increasing number of external risk factors, including geopolitical ones. Measures must therefore be taken to contribute to meeting the new challenges, fulfilling the requirements and demands of sustainable development, and, above all, reducing emissions.

It is clear from the analyses that the electromobility trend is definitely upward. The infrastructure is also developing very rapidly. It is certainly an element supporting smart cities, but the uncertainty of the economic and business situation and the instability of the energy market may contribute to halting trends or failing to achieve intended goals, including those related to sustainability. The reduction in pollution can be linked to the development and trend towards smart mobility and electromobility.