Research Methods of Main Parameter Sensitivity Differences in China’s Dynamic Oil and Gas Reserve Estimation under SEC Standards
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. SEC Reserve Estimation Method
3. SEC Dynamic Reserve Estimation Model Research
3.1. SEC Dynamic Reserve Equations
- Ne—SEC reserve, barrel;
- qi—initial production monthly, barrel/month;
- d—decline rate monthly, %;
- di—initial decline rate monthly, %;
- qel—economic limit production, barrel/month.
3.2. Modeling SEC Dynamic Reserve Value
− variable operating cost − taxes − special oil gain levy = 0.
3.2.1. Modeling SEC Reserve Value of Exponential Decline Type
3.2.2. Modeling SEC Reserve Value of Hyperbolic Decline Type
3.2.3. Modeling SEC Reserve Value of Harmonic Decline Type
3.3. Verification of SEC Reserve Value Model
4. SEC Reserve Parameter Sensitivity Differences
4.1. Initial Production Sensitivity
4.1.1. Initial Production Sensitivity in Exponential Decline Type
4.1.2. Initial Production Sensitivity in Hyperbolic and Harmonic Decline Types
4.2. Oil Price Sensitivity
4.2.1. Oil Price Sensitivity in Exponential Decline Type
4.2.2. Oil Price Sensitivity in Hyperbolic and Harmonic Decline Types
4.3. SEC Reserve Parameter Sensitivity Differences
4.3.1. Parameter Sensitivity Differences in Exponential Decline Type
- (1)
- When: , in case of high oil price, exist rules:
- (2)
- When: , in case of low oil price, exist rules:
4.3.2. Parameter Sensitivity Differences in Hyperbolic Decline Type
- (1)
- According to Formula (18), when:, in case of high oil price, sensitivity rules exist: .
- (2)
- According to Formula (18), when:, in case of low oil price, sensitivity rules exist:.
4.3.3. Parameter Sensitivity Differences in Harmonic Decline Type
- (1)
- According to Formula (19), when: , in case of high oil price, sensitivity rulesexist: .
- (2)
- According to Formula (19), when: , in case of low oil price, sensitivity rulesexist: .
5. SEC Reserve Value Parameter Sensitivity Differences
5.1. Initial Production Sensitivity
5.2. Oil Price Sensitivity
5.3. SEC Reserve Value Parameter Sensitivity Differences
- (1)
- When , in case of high oil price, .
- (2)
- When , in case of high oil price, .
6. Example Analysis of Parameter Sensitivity Differences
6.1. Example Analysis of SEC Reserve Parameter Sensitivity Differences
- (1)
- When: , in case of high oil price, sensitivity rules exist:
- (2)
- When: , in case of low oil price, sensitivity rules exist:
6.2. Example Analysis of SEC Reserve Value Parameter Sensitivity Differences
- (1)
- Then:
- (2)
- Then:
7. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
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Parameters | Unit | Parameter Data | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Oil price | $/barrel | 47 | 48 | 50 |
SEC reserve value (production value) | $ × 104 | 1102 | 1177 | 1344 |
SEC reserve value (simulated value) | $ × 104 | 1104 | 1188 | 1338 |
Present valuefirst year (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 671 | 716 | 787 |
Present value second year (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 318 | 344 | 387 |
Present value third year (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 107 | 118 | 142 |
Present value fourth year (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 8 | 10 | 22 |
Economic life | Months | 40 | 41 | 43 |
Decline rate | % | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.90 |
Month fixed cost | $/month | 285,714 | 285,714 | 285,714 |
Unit variable cost | $/barrel | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.6 |
Initial production | Barrel/month | 58,418 | 58,418 | 58,418 |
V | Months | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Parameters | Unit | Parameter Data | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Oil price | $/barrel | 47 | 48 | 50 |
SEC reserve value (production data) | $ × 104 | 321 | 347 | 410 |
SEC reserve value (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 324 | 356 | 434 |
First year present value j = 1(simulation data) | $ × 104 | 283 | 305 | 354 |
Second year present value [T] = 2(simulation data) | $ × 104 | 41 | 52 | 80 |
Initial production | Barrel/month | 58,418 | 58,418 | 58,418 |
Initial decline rate | % | 16.2 | 16.2 | 16.2 |
Hyperbolic decline index n | Dimensionless | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.7 |
Unit variable cost | $/barrel | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
Month fixed cost | $ × 104/month | 33 | 33 | 33 |
v | Months | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Economic life | Months | 16 | 17 | 19 |
Parameters | Unit | Parameter data | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Oil price | $/barrel | 47 | 48 | 50 |
SEC reserve value (production data) | $ × 104 | 268 | 295 | 353 |
SEC reserve value (simulation data) | $ × 104 | 245 | 268 | 324 |
First year present value j = 1(simulation data) | $ × 104 | 239 | 259 | 304 |
Second year present value [T] = 2(simulation) | $ × 104 | 6 | 10 | 20 |
Initial production | Barrel/month | 58,418 | 58,418 | 58,418 |
Initial decline rate | % | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
Unit variable cost | $/barrel | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.7 |
Month fixed cost | $ × 104/month | 33 | 33 | 33 |
v | Months | 4 | 5 | 7 |
Economic life | Months | 16 | 17 | 19 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC Reserve and Initial Production | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEC reserve | barrel | 388,018 | 413,475 | 440,333 | 468,998 | 500,009 |
SEC Reserve increment | barrel | / | 25,456 | 26,858 | 28,665 | 31,011 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 15,847 | 16,678 | 17,556 | 18,434 | 19,358 |
Incrementrange of adjacent initial production | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Decline rate | % | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 3265 | 3265 | 3265 | 3265 | 3265 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC reserve and price | ||||
SEC reserve | barrel | 395,326 | 419,404 | 440,332 | 446,754 | 452,760 |
SEC reserve increment | barrel | / | 24,078 | 20,929 | 6422 | 6006 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 52 | 54 | 57 | 59.9 | 62.8 |
Incrementrange of adjacent price | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 3634 | 3465 | 3266 | 3088 | 2926 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC Reserve and Initial Production | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEC reserve | barrel | 80,080 | 105,351 | 131,947 | 158,551 | 186,563 |
SEC reserves increment | barrel | / | 25,271 | 26,596 | 26,604 | 28,013 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 20 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 15,839 | 16,678 | 17,556 | 18,433 | 19,358 |
Increment range of adjacent initial production | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Decline rate | % | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% | 3.30% |
Economic limit production | barrels/month | 13,183 | 13,183 | 13,183 | 13,183 | 13,183 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC reserve and price | ||||
SEC reserve | barrel | 55,710 | 96,119 | 131,948 | 162,339 | 192,030 |
SEC reserves increment | barrel | / | 40,410 | 35,828 | 30,392 | 29,689 |
oil price | $/barrel | 18.05 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22.05 |
Increment range of adjacent initial production | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 15,716 | 14,384 | 13,198 | 12,196 | 11,296 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC Reserve Value and Initial Production | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEC reserve value | $ × 104 | 903 | 968 | 1039 | 1113 | 1192 |
SEC reserve value increment | $ × 104 | / | 66 | 71 | 74 | 78 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.2 | 67.2 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 17,556 | 18,434 | 19,358 | 20,320 | 21,329 |
Increment range of adjacentinitial production | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Decline rate | % | 3.3 | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
Economic limit output | barrel/month | 2741 | 2741 | 2741 | 2741 | 2741 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between reserve value and price | ||||
SEC reserve value | $ × 104 | 903 | 948 | 998 | 1063 | 1135 |
SEC reserve value increment | $ × 104 | / | 45 | 50 | 66 | 71 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 67.2 | 70.6 | 74.1 | 77.8 | 81.7 |
Increment range of adjacent price | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 2741 | 2626 | 2541 | 2433 | 2356 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between SEC Reserve Value and Initial Production | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SEC reserve value | $ × 104 | 617 | 670 | 726 | 786 | 848 |
SEC reserve value increment | $ × 104 | / | 53 | 56 | 60 | 63 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 63.99 | 63.99 | 63.99 | 63.99 | 63.99 |
Initial production | barrel/month | 14,299 | 15,053 | 15,844 | 16,678 | 17,556 |
Increment range of adjacent initial production | % | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
Decline rate | % | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 2826 | 2826 | 2826 | 2826 | 2826 |
Parameters | Unit | Sensitivity between reserve value and price | ||||
SEC reserve value | $ × 104 | 522 | 613 | 700 | 777 | 848 |
SEC reserve value increment | $ × 104 | / | 91 | 87 | 77 | 72 |
Oil price | $/barrel | 52.16 | 54.9 | 57.76 | 60.8 | 63.99 |
Increment range of adjacent price | % | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Initial production | barrel/month | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 | 17,556 |
Economic limit production | barrel/month | 3623 | 3412 | 3217 | 3026 | 2826 |
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Qin, Q.; Liu, L.; Pan, X. Research Methods of Main Parameter Sensitivity Differences in China’s Dynamic Oil and Gas Reserve Estimation under SEC Standards. Energies 2022, 15, 5358. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155358
Qin Q, Liu L, Pan X. Research Methods of Main Parameter Sensitivity Differences in China’s Dynamic Oil and Gas Reserve Estimation under SEC Standards. Energies. 2022; 15(15):5358. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155358
Chicago/Turabian StyleQin, Qirong, Lin Liu, and Xuefeng Pan. 2022. "Research Methods of Main Parameter Sensitivity Differences in China’s Dynamic Oil and Gas Reserve Estimation under SEC Standards" Energies 15, no. 15: 5358. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15155358