Hybrid Ship Unit Commitment with Demand Prediction and Model Predictive Control
Abstract
:1. Introduction
- real-time unit commitment control methodology for complex ship energy systems without assuming a known power demand profile,
- a two-step robust power demand predictor that updates demand estimates online and
- demonstration of how to reduce ship emissions in the vicinity of coastal areas.
2. Background
2.1. Energy System Unit Commitment
2.2. Energy Demand Prediction Models
2.3. Control of Ship Energy Systems
3. Methods
3.1. Case Study Ship
- total power demand,
- speed over ground,
- the ship’s longitude and
- the ship’s latitude.
3.2. Complete Model
3.3. Global Prediction Model
3.4. Local Prediction Model
3.5. Optimization Model
3.6. Rule-Based System
4. Results
5. Discussion
6. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Nomenclature
Abbreviations | |
ANN | Artificial neural network |
EEDI | Energy efficiency design index |
FFR | Fuel flow rate |
GHG | Greenhouse gas |
GP | Gaussian process |
IMO | International Maritime Organization |
MILP | Mixed-integer linear programming |
MPC | Model predictive control |
PM | Particulate matter |
RPM | Revolutions per minute |
SFOC | Specific fuel oil consumption |
SoC | State of charge |
SOFC | Solid-oxide fuel cell |
SOG | Speed over ground |
Greek Symbols | |
Battery discharging efficiency (%) | |
Battery charging efficiency (%) | |
Symbols | |
A | Intercept of fuel flow rate function (kg/kWh) |
Slope of fuel flow rate function (kg/kWh) | |
C | Indicator for nearby coast |
D | Demand of electric power (kW) |
E | Battery capacity (kWh) |
f | Fuel cell power (kW) |
Initial fuel cell power (kW) | |
Maximum fuel cell power (kW) | |
H | Hydrogen capacity (kg) |
h | Hydrogen amount (kg) |
Initial hydrogen amount (kg) | |
M | Maximum power from engine (kW) |
Online status of an engine | |
P | Fuel mass penalty for starting an engine (kg) |
Fuel mass penalty for shutting down an engine (kg) | |
S | Engine start indicator |
Engine shut down indicator | |
T | Size of time step (hours) |
V | Battery state of charge-dependent voltage drop (%) |
X | Battery discharging power (kW) |
x | Load of engines (%) |
Battery charging power (kW) | |
Battery state of charge (%) | |
Initial battery state of charge (%) | |
Maximum battery charging power (kW) | |
Maximum battery discharging power (kW) | |
y | Indicator if operating mode is active |
Initial operating mode | |
Subscripts | |
i | Index of time step |
j | Index of engine operating mode |
k | Index of an engine |
References
- IMO. Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions From Ships. 2018. Available online: http://www.imo.org/en/MediaCentre/HotTopics/GHG/Pages/default.aspx (accessed on 24 June 2020).
- IMO. Prevention of Air Pollution From Ships. 2020. Available online: http://www.imo.org/en/OurWork/Environment/PollutionPrevention/AirPollution/Pages/Air-Pollution.aspx (accessed on 24 June 2020).
- Sofiev, M.; Winebrake, J.J.; Johansson, L.; Carr, E.W.; Prank, M.; Soares, J.; Vira, J.; Kouznetsov, R.; Jalkanen, J.P.; Corbett, J.J. Cleaner fuels for ships provide public health benefits with climate tradeoffs. Nat. Commun. 2018, 9, 1–12. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [PubMed] [Green Version]
- Anderson, K.; Bows, A. Executing a Scharnow turn: Reconciling shipping emissions with international commitments on climate change. Carbon Manag. 2012, 3, 615–628. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bouman, E.A.; Lindstad, E.; Rialland, A.I.; Strømman, A.H. State-of-the-art technologies, measures, and potential for reducing GHG emissions from shipping—A review. Transp. Res. Part D Transp. Environ. 2017, 52, 408–421. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- DNV-GL. Maritime Forecast to 2050—Energy Transition Outlook 2019. Available online: https://eto.dnvgl.com/2019/index.html#ETO2019-top (accessed on 11 August 2020).
- Tronstad, T.; Åstrand, H.H.; Haugom, G.P.; Langfeldt, L. Study on the Use of Fuel Cells in Shipping. 2017. Available online: http://www.emsa.europa.eu/emsa-homepage/2-news-a-press-centre/news/2921-emsa-study-on-the-use-of-fuel-cells-in-shipping.html (accessed on 1 August 2020).
- Wärtsilä. Wärtsilä 46F Product Guide. 2020. Available online: https://www.wartsila.com/marine/build/engines-and-generating-sets/diesel-engines/wartsila-46f (accessed on 10 June 2020).
- ABB. Fuel Cell Systems for Ships. 2020. Available online: https://new.abb.com/marine/systems-and-solutions/electric-solutions/fuel-cell (accessed on 28 August 2020).
- DNV-GL. Comparison of Alternative Marine Fuels. 2019. Available online: https://globallnghub.com/articles/comparison-of-alternative-marine-fuels (accessed on 19 July 2020).
- Saravanan, B.; Das, S.; Sikri, S.; Kothari, D. A solution to the unit commitment problem—A review. Front. Energy 2013, 7, 223–236. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Wang, J.; Botterud, A.; Bessa, R.; Keko, H.; Carvalho, L.; Issicaba, D.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V. Wind power forecasting uncertainty and unit commitment. Appl. Energy 2011, 88, 4014–4023. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Håberg, M. Fundamentals and recent developments in stochastic unit commitment. Int. J. Electr. Power Energy Syst. 2019, 109, 38–48. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Holtrop, J.; Mennen, G. An approximate power prediction method. Int. Shipbuild. Prog. 1982, 29, 166–170. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Farag, Y.B.; Ölçer, A.I. The development of a ship performance model in varying operating conditions based on ANN and regression techniques. Ocean Eng. 2020, 198, 106972. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Petersen, J.P.; Jacobsen, D.J.; Winther, O. Statistical modelling for ship propulsion efficiency. J. Mar. Sci. Technol. 2012, 17, 30–39. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Rudzki, K.; Tarelko, W. A decision-making system supporting selection of commanded outputs for a ship’s propulsion system with a controllable pitch propeller. Ocean Eng. 2016, 126, 254–264. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Beşikçi, E.B.; Arslan, O.; Turan, O.; Ölçer, A. An artificial neural network based decision support system for energy efficient ship operations. Comput. Oper. Res. 2016, 66, 393–401. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Yuan, J.; Nian, V. Ship energy consumption prediction with Gaussian process metamodel. Energy Procedia 2018, 152, 655–660. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Leifsson, L.Þ.; Sævarsdóttir, H.; Sigurðsson, S.Þ.; Vésteinsson, A. Grey-box modeling of an ocean vessel for operational optimization. Simul. Model. Pract. Theory 2008, 16, 923–932. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Coraddu, A.; Oneto, L.; Baldi, F.; Anguita, D. Vessels fuel consumption forecast and trim optimisation: A data analytics perspective. Ocean Eng. 2017, 130, 351–370. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Isherwood, R.M. Wind resistance of merchant ships. Trans. R. Inst. Nav. Archit. 1973, 115, 327–338. [Google Scholar]
- Kanellos, F.D.; Tsekouras, G.J.; Hatziargyriou, N.D. Optimal demand-side management and power generation scheduling in an all-electric ship. IEEE Trans. Sustain. Energy 2014, 5, 1166–1175. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Kanellos, F. Optimal power management with GHG emissions limitation in all-electric ship power systems comprising energy storage systems. IEEE Trans. Power Syst. 2013, 29, 330–339. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Anvari-Moghaddam, A.; Dragicevic, T.; Meng, L.; Sun, B.; Guerrero, J.M. Optimal planning and operation management of a ship electrical power system with energy storage system. In Proceedings of the IECON 2016—42nd Annual Conference of the IEEE Industrial Electronics Society, Florence, Italy, 23–26 October 2016; pp. 2095–2099. [Google Scholar]
- Ritari, A.; Huotari, J.; Halme, J.; Tammi, K. Hybrid electric topology for short sea ships with high auxiliary power availability requirement. Energy 2020, 190, 116359. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Paran, S.; Vu, T.; El Mezyani, T.; Edrington, C. MPC-based power management in the shipboard power system. In Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium (ESTS), Alexandria, VA, USA, 21–24 June 2015; pp. 14–18. [Google Scholar]
- Van Vu, T.; Gonsoulin, D.; Diaz, F.; Edrington, C.S.; El-Mezyani, T. Predictive control for energy management in ship power systems under high-power ramp rate loads. IEEE Trans. Energy Convers. 2017, 32, 788–797. [Google Scholar]
- Stone, P.; Opila, D.F.; Park, H.; Sun, J.; Pekarek, S.; DeCarlo, R.; Westervelt, E.; Brooks, J.; Seenumani, G. Shipboard power management using constrained nonlinear model predictive control. In Proceedings of the 2015 IEEE Electric Ship Technologies Symposium (ESTS), Alexandria, VA, USA, 21–24 June 2015; pp. 1–7. [Google Scholar]
- Park, H.; Sun, J.; Pekarek, S.; Stone, P.; Opila, D.; Meyer, R.; Kolmanovsky, I.; DeCarlo, R. Real-time model predictive control for shipboard power management using the IPA-SQP approach. IEEE Trans. Control Syst. Technol. 2015, 23, 2129–2143. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Hou, J.; Sun, J.; Hofmann, H. Mitigating power fluctuations in electrical ship propulsion using model predictive control with hybrid energy storage system. In Proceedings of the 2014 American Control Conference, Portland, OR, USA, 4–6 June 2014; pp. 4366–4371. [Google Scholar]
- Haseltalab, A.; Negenborn, R.R.; Lodewijks, G. Multi-level predictive control for energy management of hybrid ships in the presence of uncertainty and environmental disturbances. IFAC-PapersOnLine 2016, 49, 90–95. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sarrafan, N.; Zarei, J.; Razavi-Far, R.; Saif, M.; Khooban, M.H. A Novel On-Board DC/DC Converter Controller Feeding Uncertain Constant Power Loads. IEEE J. Emerg. Sel. Top. Power Electron. 2020. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Huotari, J.; Ritari, A.; Ojala, R.; Vepsäläinen, J.; Tammi, K. Q-Learning Based Autonomous Control of the Auxiliary Power Network of a Ship. IEEE Access 2019, 7, 152879–152890. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Sciberras, E.A.; Zahawi, B.; Atkinson, D.J.; Breijs, A.; van Vugt, J.H. Managing shipboard energy: A stochastic approach special issue on marine systems electrification. IEEE Trans. Transp. Electrif. 2016, 2, 538–546. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Bassam, A.M.; Phillips, A.B.; Turnock, S.R.; Wilson, P.A. Development of a multi-scheme energy management strategy for a hybrid fuel cell driven passenger ship. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy 2017, 42, 623–635. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Wessel, P.; Smith, W.H. A global, self-consistent, hierarchical, high-resolution shoreline database. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 1996, 101, 8741–8743. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Ha, S.; Hu, H.; Roth, J.; Kan, H.; Xu, X. Associations between residential proximity to power plants and adverse birth outcomes. Am. J. Epidemiol. 2015, 182, 215–224. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Amster, E.; Lew Levy, C. Impact of coal-fired power plant emissions on children’s health: A systematic review of the epidemiological literature. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2019, 16, 2008. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef] [Green Version]
- Halinen, M. Improving the Performance of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Systems. Ph.D. Thesis, Aalto University, Espoo, Finland, 2015. [Google Scholar]
- Halinen, M.; Thomann, O.; Kiviaho, J. Experimental study of SOFC system heat-up without safety gases. Int. J. Hydrog. Energy 2014, 39, 552–561. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- D’Andrea, G.; Gandiglio, M.; Lanzini, A.; Santarelli, M. Dynamic model with experimental validation of a biogas-fed SOFC plant. Energy Convers. Manag. 2017, 135, 21–34. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
- Offshore Energy. Corvus Energy Wins World’s Largest Battery Package Order for Hybrid Vessels. 2019. Available online: https://www.offshore-energy.biz/corvus-energy-wins-worlds-largest-battery-package-order-for-hybrid-vessels/ (accessed on 28 August 2020).
- ABB. ForSea—Zero Emission Operation. 2020. Available online: https://new.abb.com/marine/marine-references/forsea (accessed on 28 August 2020).
- PowerCell. PowerCell Sign Development Contract for Maritime Zero Emissions Solution with Havyard Group. 2019. Available online: https://www.powercell.se/en/newsroom/press-releases/detail/?releaseId=A8434432E331DA67 (accessed on 28 August 2020).
- Rasmussen, C.E. Gaussian Processes in Machine Learning; MIT Press: Cambridge, MA, USA, 2006. [Google Scholar]
- Genton, M.G. Classes of kernels for machine learning: A statistics perspective. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2001, 2, 299–312. [Google Scholar]
- Matthews, A.G.d.G.; van der Wilk, M.; Nickson, T.; Fujii, K.; Boukouvalas, A.; León-Villagrá, P.; Ghahramani, Z.; Hensman, J. GPflow: A Gaussian process library using TensorFlow. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2017, 18, 1–6. [Google Scholar]
- Hensman, J.; Fusi, N.; Lawrence, N.D. Gaussian processes for big data. arXiv 2013, arXiv:1309.6835. [Google Scholar]
- Hoffman, M.D.; Blei, D.M.; Wang, C.; Paisley, J. Stochastic variational inference. J. Mach. Learn. Res. 2013, 14, 1303–1347. [Google Scholar]
- Bishop, C.M. Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning; Springer: Berlin/Heidelberg, Germany, 2006; pp. 152–158. [Google Scholar]
- Larminie, J.; Dicks, A.; McDonald, M.S. Fuel Cell Systems Explained; J. Wiley: Chichester, UK, 2003; Chapter A2; Volume 2. [Google Scholar]
- Gurobi Optimization, LLC. Gurobi Optimizer Reference Manual. 2020. Available online: http://www.gurobi.com (accessed on 10 June 2020).
- ABS. Fuel Cell Power Systems for Marine and Offshore Applications. 2019. Available online: https://ww2.eagle.org/en/rules-and-resources/rules-and-guides.html (accessed on 31 August 2020).
- DNV-GL. Rules for Classification—Ships: Part 6 Additional Class Notations. Chapter 2 Propulsion, Power Generation and Auxiliary Systems. 2020. Available online: https://rules.dnvgl.com/ServiceDocuments/dnvgl/#!/home (accessed on 31 August 2020).
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
Length | 295 m |
Beam | 42 m |
Year built | 2017 |
Gross tonnage | 98811 |
Generating sets | 2 × 9.6 MW, 2 × 14.4 MW |
Capacity | 2534 passengers, 1030 crew |
Propulsion | Diesel-electric |
Parameter | Value |
---|---|
Battery chemistry | NMC |
Battery capacity | 5 MWh |
Battery C-rate | 4 |
Fuel cell rated power | 5 MW |
Fuel cell type | SOFC |
Fuel cell fuel | Hydrogen |
Hydrogen capacity | 3000 kg |
© 2020 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
Share and Cite
Huotari, J.; Ritari, A.; Vepsäläinen, J.; Tammi, K. Hybrid Ship Unit Commitment with Demand Prediction and Model Predictive Control. Energies 2020, 13, 4748. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184748
Huotari J, Ritari A, Vepsäläinen J, Tammi K. Hybrid Ship Unit Commitment with Demand Prediction and Model Predictive Control. Energies. 2020; 13(18):4748. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184748
Chicago/Turabian StyleHuotari, Janne, Antti Ritari, Jari Vepsäläinen, and Kari Tammi. 2020. "Hybrid Ship Unit Commitment with Demand Prediction and Model Predictive Control" Energies 13, no. 18: 4748. https://doi.org/10.3390/en13184748