Special Issue "Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence in Non-life Insurance: Theory, Methods and Applications"

A special issue of Risks (ISSN 2227-9091).

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 December 2023 | Viewed by 3044

Special Issue Editor

Global Management Studies, Ted Rogers School of Management, Toronto Metropolitan University, Toronto, ON M5G 2C3, Canada
Interests: statistical machine learning; explainable data analytics; risk modeling; rate making; multivariate statistical methods; time series analysis; predictive analytics; health informatics; biosignal analysis
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Data from non-life insurance complex systems share many commonalities, such as high data volume, complex data structure, high dimensionality, and multi-scale. Traditional predicting modelling, including General linear Models, Generalized Linear and Generalized Additive Models, have been widely used for predicting insurance losses and future claims. On the other hand, the use of machine learning (ML) as an emerging insurance technique is a powerful tool for predicting insurance claim frequency, insurance pricing risk analysis and management, and insurance fraud detection and prevention. Actuarial practices in insurance pricing and rate regulation have shown that the interpretability of results obtained from ML techniques is crucial for the broader application of ML and AI technologies. Therefore, much effort has been made to improve ML explainability and interpretability. However, the applications of interpretable ML techniques and explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) are still in their infancy and require further development, particularly for non-life insurance, where different advanced statistical and computational methods are applied for solving problems from actuarial perspectives. This Special Issue aims to collect outstanding research papers on building statistical or computational machine learning models that can provide good interpretability for insurance pricing, risk analysis, risk management and predictive modelling for risk, particularly in non-life insurance.

The methodology topics include, but are not limited to, the following:

  • Sparse statistical methods;
  • Interpretable statistical models;
  • High-dimension insurance data and their dimension reduction;
  • Explainable artificial neural networks;
  • Model agnostics methods;
  • Variable importance measures;
  • Machine learning algorithm for ratemaking.

Both theoretical development and applied work addressing the interpretability of models for insurance pricing, modelling and risk analysis are welcome.

Dr. Shengkun Xie
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 1400 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • explainable machine learning
  • interpretable machine learning
  • insurance pricing
  • ratemaking
  • risk analysis
  • risk management
  • non-life insurance

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

Article
Machine Learning in Forecasting Motor Insurance Claims
Risks 2023, 11(9), 164; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11090164 - 18 Sep 2023
Viewed by 475
Abstract
Accurate forecasting of insurance claims is of the utmost importance for insurance activity as the evolution of claims determines cash outflows and the pricing, and thus the profitability, of the underlying insurance coverage. These are used as inputs when the insurance company drafts [...] Read more.
Accurate forecasting of insurance claims is of the utmost importance for insurance activity as the evolution of claims determines cash outflows and the pricing, and thus the profitability, of the underlying insurance coverage. These are used as inputs when the insurance company drafts its business plan and determines its risk appetite, and the respective solvency capital required (by the regulators) to absorb the assumed risks. The conventional claim forecasting methods attempt to fit (each of) the claims frequency and severity with a known probability distribution function and use it to project future claims. This study offers a fresh approach in insurance claims forecasting. First, we introduce two novel sets of variables, i.e., weather conditions and car sales, and second, we employ a battery of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms (Support Vector Machines—SVM, Decision Trees, Random Forests, and Boosting) to forecast the average (mean) insurance claim per insured car per quarter. Finally, we identify the variables that are the most influential in forecasting insurance claims. Our dataset comes from the motor portfolio of an insurance company operating in Athens, Greece and spans a period from 2008 to 2020. We found evidence that the three most informative variables pertain to the new car sales with a 3-quarter and 1-quarter lag and the minimum temperature of Elefsina (one of the weather stations in Athens) with a 3-quarter lag. Among the models tested, Random Forest with limited depth and XGboost run on the 15 most informative variables, and these exhibited the best performance. These findings can be useful in the hands of insurers as they can consider the weather conditions and the new car sales among the parameters that are considered to perform claims forecasting. Full article
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Article
Modelling Motor Insurance Claim Frequency and Severity Using Gradient Boosting
Risks 2023, 11(9), 163; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11090163 - 12 Sep 2023
Viewed by 266
Abstract
Modelling claim frequency and claim severity are topics of great interest in property-casualty insurance for supporting underwriting, ratemaking, and reserving actuarial decisions. Standard Generalized Linear Models (GLM) frequency–severity models assume a linear relationship between a function of the response variable and the predictors, [...] Read more.
Modelling claim frequency and claim severity are topics of great interest in property-casualty insurance for supporting underwriting, ratemaking, and reserving actuarial decisions. Standard Generalized Linear Models (GLM) frequency–severity models assume a linear relationship between a function of the response variable and the predictors, independence between the claim frequency and severity, and assign full credibility to the data. To overcome some of these restrictions, this paper investigates the predictive performance of Gradient Boosting with decision trees as base learners to model the claim frequency and the claim severity distributions of an auto insurance big dataset and compare it with that obtained using a standard GLM model. The out-of-sample performance measure results show that the predictive performance of the Gradient Boosting Model (GBM) is superior to the standard GLM model in the Poisson claim frequency model. Differently, in the claim severity model, the classical GLM outperformed the Gradient Boosting Model. The findings suggest that gradient boost models can capture the non-linear relation between the response variable and feature variables and their complex interactions and thus are a valuable tool for the insurer in feature engineering and the development of a data-driven approach to risk management and insurance. Full article
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Article
Estimating Territory Risk Relativity Using Generalized Linear Mixed Models and Fuzzy C-Means Clustering
Risks 2023, 11(6), 99; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11060099 - 24 May 2023
Viewed by 717
Abstract
Territory risk analysis has played an important role in auto insurance rate regulation. It aims to design rating territories from a set of basic rating units so that their respective risk relativities can be estimated to reflect the regional risk of insurance. In [...] Read more.
Territory risk analysis has played an important role in auto insurance rate regulation. It aims to design rating territories from a set of basic rating units so that their respective risk relativities can be estimated to reflect the regional risk of insurance. In this work, spatially constrained clustering is first applied to insurance loss data to form such regions, using the forward sortation area (FSA) as a basic rating unit. The groupings of FSA by spatially constrained clustering reduce the insurance rate heterogeneity caused by smaller risk exposures. Furthermore, the generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) is proposed to derive the risk relativities of clusters and each FSA. In addition, as an alternative approach, fuzzy C-Means clustering is proposed to derive the risk relativity of FSA, and the obtained results are compared to the ones from GLMM. The spatially constrained clustering and risk relativity estimation help to retrieve a set of territory risk benchmarks used in rate filings within the regulation process. It also provides guidance for auto insurance companies on rate making. Full article
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Article
Optimizing Pension Participation in Kenya through Predictive Modeling: A Comparative Analysis of Tree-Based Machine Learning Algorithms and Logistic Regression Classifier
Risks 2023, 11(4), 77; https://doi.org/10.3390/risks11040077 - 18 Apr 2023
Viewed by 1069
Abstract
Pension plans play a vital role in the economy by impacting savings, consumption, and investment allocation. Despite declining mortality rates and increasing life expectancy, pension enrollment remains low, affecting the long-term financial stability and well-being of populations. To address this issue, this study [...] Read more.
Pension plans play a vital role in the economy by impacting savings, consumption, and investment allocation. Despite declining mortality rates and increasing life expectancy, pension enrollment remains low, affecting the long-term financial stability and well-being of populations. To address this issue, this study was conducted to explore the potential of predictive modeling techniques in improving pension participation. The study utilized three tree-based machine learning algorithms and a logistic regression classifier to analyze data from a nationally representative 2019 Kenya FinAccess Household Survey. The results indicated that ensemble tree-based models, particularly the random forest model, were the most effective in predicting pension enrollment. The study identified the key factors that influenced enrollment, such as National Health Insurance Fund (NHIF) usage, monthly income, and bank usage. The findings suggest that collaboration among the NHIF, banks, and pension providers is necessary to increase pension uptake, along with increased financial education for citizens. The study provides valuable insight for promoting and optimizing pension participation. Full article
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