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Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents
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Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents

A special issue of Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (ISSN 2077-1312). This special issue belongs to the section "Marine Hazards".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (5 January 2023) | Viewed by 11791

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Gholamreza Gholipour

E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Civil, Geological and Mining Engineering, Polytechnique Montréal, Montreal, QC, Canada
Interests: vessel collision; ocean engineering; extreme loads; bridge engineering; impact; blast; bridges; ships; concrete structures; structural analysis
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

There is a long history of risk assessment of maritime accidents which represents an essential subject matter in maritime safety. Over the past couple of decades, the increase in maritime accidents and hazards has motivated engineering scientists and researchers for risk assessment and safety analysis of such events in all the navigational waterways and connected port areas. The collapse of Jiujiang Bridge in China due to the collision of a cargo ship in 2007; the collision of a cargo ship with the Sanchi oil tanker resulting in subsequent fire and explosions and sinking in the East China Sea in 2018; chemical explosions in the Port of Beirut, Lebonan in 2020; and the grounding accident of container ship Ever Given that had blocked the Suez Canal in 2021 are examples of catastrophic maritime accidents that caused a huge loss of human lives and damage to maritime assets. Some of the key research topics in maritime hazards include the impact assessment of various accidents, safety analysis, risk mitigation strategies, resilient design, and the protection of maritime assets.

This Special Issue aims to publish original research and development work related to the risk assessment of maritime accidents.

Research topics of interest include but are not limited to:

  • Risk assessment of maritime accidents including:
    • Ship-ship collisions;
    • Ship-structure collisions (including fixed and floating offshore platforms);
    • Ice-structure interactions;
    • Ship grounding;
    • Explosion mechanics;
  • Stochastic methods and reliability analysis;
  • Risk and limit state design approaches;
  • Resilient design of maritime systems (including crashworthiness);
  • Risk analysis of maritime systems exposed to natural hazards and climate extremes including:
  • Corrosion;
  • Fatigue;
  • Material degradation;
  • Hurricane wave loads and tsunami.

Dr. Gholamreza Gholipour
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

Manuscripts should be submitted online at www.mdpi.com by registering and logging in to this website. Once you are registered, click here to go to the submission form. Manuscripts can be submitted until the deadline. All submissions that pass pre-check are peer-reviewed. Accepted papers will be published continuously in the journal (as soon as accepted) and will be listed together on the special issue website. Research articles, review articles as well as short communications are invited. For planned papers, a title and short abstract (about 100 words) can be sent to the Editorial Office for announcement on this website.

Submitted manuscripts should not have been published previously, nor be under consideration for publication elsewhere (except conference proceedings papers). All manuscripts are thoroughly refereed through a single-blind peer-review process. A guide for authors and other relevant information for submission of manuscripts is available on the Instructions for Authors page. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering is an international peer-reviewed open access monthly journal published by MDPI.

Please visit the Instructions for Authors page before submitting a manuscript. The Article Processing Charge (APC) for publication in this open access journal is 2600 CHF (Swiss Francs). Submitted papers should be well formatted and use good English. Authors may use MDPI's English editing service prior to publication or during author revisions.

Keywords

  • risk assessment
  • maritime accidents
  • natural hazards
  • maritime safety
  • risk mitigation strategies
  • resilient designs

Published Papers (6 papers)

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Research

15 pages, 5294 KiB  
Article
Analysis of the Relationship between Selected Ship and Propulsion System Characteristics and the Risk of Main Engine Turbocharger Explosion
by Leszek Chybowski, Andrzej Jakubowski and Sławomir Żółkiewski
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11(2), 360; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020360 - 05 Feb 2023
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1591
Abstract
The scientific aim of this paper is to analyse the topicality of the turbocharger explosions and to attempt to answer the question of whether some technical characteristics of the engine can be perceived as directly connected with the risk of the turbocharger explosion. [...] Read more.
The scientific aim of this paper is to analyse the topicality of the turbocharger explosions and to attempt to answer the question of whether some technical characteristics of the engine can be perceived as directly connected with the risk of the turbocharger explosion. Moreover, our objective was also to calculate the turbocharger explosion probability. This article presents the results of a quantitative and qualitative analysis of 42 explosions of marine main engine turbochargers occurring between 1977 and 2022. The number of explosions was analysed, and the average and instantaneous frequencies of turbocharger explosions each year were determined. An analysis was performed of the number of explosions with respect to the age and type of ship on which the accident occurred. An analysis of the contribution of different types of main engine to the studied population of explosions was also carried out. Criteria such as the number of strokes, engine speed, type of crank-piston mechanism, cylinder arrangement, engine power per cylinder, and number of cylinders were considered. An analysis was carried out of the disasters that had occurred, considering the contribution of the various engine manufacturers. An integrated distribution of the number of turbocharger explosions by year was presented, considering the engine speed, the maximum continuous rating of the engine, and the engine design. The analysis did not indicate a significant correlation between the type of ship and the number of explosions that occurred. More than half of the analysed population of explosions (median) occurred on vessels no older than 15 years. It is highly likely that engine type does not directly affect the number of turbocharger explosions and the risk of explosions. On the other hand, it is not possible to exclude the influence of the individual characteristics of an engine built to a particular manufacturer’s design on the magnitude of the risk of a turbocharger exploding during engine operation. Considering the number of ships worldwide, the probability of an explosion in a given year on a given ship is not less than 1.61 × 10−7. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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13 pages, 1016 KiB  
Article
Sensitivity Analysis of Risk Characteristics of Complex Engineering Systems: An Application to a Subsea Pipeline Monitoring System
by Vladimir Rykov, Olga Kochueva, Mais Farkhadov, Elvira Zaripova and Anna Zhaglova
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2023, 11(2), 352; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse11020352 - 04 Feb 2023
Viewed by 969
Abstract
One of the problems of risk analysis of complex engineering systems is the uncertainty of initial information about the time and damage associated with occurrence and development of the risk situation. The paper proposes a methodology and procedure for constructing a risk tree, [...] Read more.
One of the problems of risk analysis of complex engineering systems is the uncertainty of initial information about the time and damage associated with occurrence and development of the risk situation. The paper proposes a methodology and procedure for constructing a risk tree, loading it with initial data, calculating the corresponding characteristics: the distributions of time to reach the intermediate and main risk events and of associated with them damages, as well as their moments. Methodology involves the construction of the most dangerous path of risk situation development with respect to different criteria as well as analysis the sensitivity of risk characteristics to the initial information. The proposed approach is applied to a model of an automated system for remote monitoring of underwater gas pipeline. The proposed methodology and its implementation on a real-world example constitute the novelty of the work. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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19 pages, 3351 KiB  
Article
The Impact of Marine Engine Component Failures upon an Explosion in the Starting Air Manifold
by Leszek Chybowski, Daniel Wiaterek and Andrzej Jakubowski
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(12), 1850; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10121850 - 01 Dec 2022
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3495
Abstract
Based on available sources, the frequency of explosions in the marine engine’s starting air manifolds is determined under real conditions. A cause-and-effect analysis of these explosions and their root causes are identified. A probabilistic model of an explosion in the starting air manifold [...] Read more.
Based on available sources, the frequency of explosions in the marine engine’s starting air manifolds is determined under real conditions. A cause-and-effect analysis of these explosions and their root causes are identified. A probabilistic model of an explosion in the starting air manifold of a marine engine is built using a fault tree analysis (FTA). Using a stochastic simulation (Monte Carlo) and an exact reliability availability calculation (ERAC) algorithm applied to the developed FTA model, selected reliability measures are calculated to describe an incident of the top event, which involves an explosion in the starting air manifold. For such an event, several factors are calculated, including the availability, the unavailability, the failure frequency, and the mean time to failure. Based on the simulations, the relative frequency of the top event is determined in relation to the number of events that can simultaneously occur and lead to an explosion. The significance of each basic event is assessed to determine their individual impact on the explosion incident. The following measures are used: the Vesely–Fussell measure of importance, the criticality measure of importance, the Birnbaum measure of reliability importance, and the Birnbaum measure of structural importance. The results of the analysis show that defective starting air valves are most responsible for the explosion incident in the starting air manifold. During the first year of the ship’s operation, the reliability does not fall below the value of 0.65, while the mean time to failure and the top event frequency are statistically at the level of one explosion per approximately 2.28 years of continuous engine operation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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18 pages, 2015 KiB  
Article
The Conditional Probability for Human Error Caused by Fatigue, Stress and Anxiety in Seafaring
by Andrea Russo, Lea Vojković, Filip Bojic and Rosanda Mulić
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(11), 1576; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10111576 - 25 Oct 2022
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2066
Abstract
Human error caused by the interaction and effect of fatigue, stress and anxiety in seafarers is the subject of this research. The human element is a major part of the maritime system. We used Bayesian networks to predict human error in maritime affairs [...] Read more.
Human error caused by the interaction and effect of fatigue, stress and anxiety in seafarers is the subject of this research. The human element is a major part of the maritime system. We used Bayesian networks to predict human error in maritime affairs by analysing interactions between people, technology, organisational and environmental factors which make up the specificity of the maritime system. Bayesian networks are graphical structures developed to represent the conditional dependencies among a number of variables and to make conditional conclusions related to the selected variables. Through the analysis of psychic causes such as stress, fatigue, anxiety and so on, the model can produce graphic diagrams indicating which rank on which type of vessel at which seafarers age contributes to an increase in conditional probability of human error. The contribution of the paper is to find the worst combinations of influencing variables that can lead to an increase in the risk of human error. The results show a significant level of fatigue and stress in all officers (engine and nautical), regardless of the type of vessel they serve. A strong presence of anxiety is also reported in all surveyed officers, with a higher degree between engine officers. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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20 pages, 1737 KiB  
Article
Designing Subsidy Scheme for Marine Disaster Index Insurance in China
by Yuemei Xue, Lili Ding and Kee-hung Lai
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(10), 1552; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101552 - 20 Oct 2022
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1281
Abstract
Designing an optimal subsidy scheme for marine disaster index insurance (MDII) for households in coastal areas of China remains a managerial challenge. The issue of subsidies for disaster insurance has received extensive research attention, but extant studies are confined to the issue of [...] Read more.
Designing an optimal subsidy scheme for marine disaster index insurance (MDII) for households in coastal areas of China remains a managerial challenge. The issue of subsidies for disaster insurance has received extensive research attention, but extant studies are confined to the issue of whether to subsidize, lacking focus on how and how much to subsidize. In the existing marine disaster index insurance pilots in China, there are varying levels and scales of subsidies in spite of premium subsidies. To design an optimal subsidy scheme for marine disaster index insurance in China, this paper proposes an optimal insurance model of marine disaster index insurance with government subsidy. Excluding the behaviors of the policyholders and insurance firms, the model captures the behaviors of the subsidy scheme from the government. Furthermore, employing the storm surge disasters, the optimal trigger scheme and subsidy scheme are designed and estimated. The results recommend that the optimal subsidy ratio for MDII in China needs to be at least 92.54%. Moreover, this value increases when there are more potential victims of marine disasters who choose to insure MDII, while the total subsidy decreases. Evidently, the subsidies for pilots of MDII in China are inadequate to meet the conditions for operation currently, which explains the dilemma of the MDII in China’s pilots. These findings provide theoretical evidence for the optimization of the MDII in China. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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18 pages, 2518 KiB  
Article
Assessment of Chemical Risks Associated with Hydrometeorological Phenomena in a Mexican Port on the Gulf of Mexico
by Guadalupe Isabel Lara Carvajal, Rodolfo Sosa Echeverría, Víctor Magaña, Georgina Fernández Villagómez and Jonathan D. W. Kahl
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2022, 10(10), 1518; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101518 - 18 Oct 2022
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1560
Abstract
Accidents in port areas in the Gulf of Mexico have had great economic costs, since this is an area exposed to extreme phenomena. Tropical cyclones or cold fronts, also known as Tehuantepecers, result in intense winds and waves that impact the coastal infrastructure. [...] Read more.
Accidents in port areas in the Gulf of Mexico have had great economic costs, since this is an area exposed to extreme phenomena. Tropical cyclones or cold fronts, also known as Tehuantepecers, result in intense winds and waves that impact the coastal infrastructure. The chemical risk associated with extreme winds and waves for the fuel storage tanks of the facility of the Port of Veracruz, the main Mexican port in the Gulf of Mexico, was evaluated with a historical analysis of accidents as a tool to identify significant factors in disasters and establish risk acceptance criteria. It was found that the critical hazard threshold for Veracruz corresponds to winds stronger than 160 km/h (44 m/s) that may result in coastal waves of more than 5 m high. The vulnerability to these phenomena was calculated with the vulnerability index (VI), considering the structural, functional, and chemical factors in the infrastructure, including exposure levels. By means of a risk matrix, it was determined that gasoline storage tanks have a moderate chemical risk, since exposure to the extreme wind wave hazard is low, and diesel tanks are at low risk. These assessments are important elements to consider in the expansion plans for the Port of Veracruz. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis of Maritime Accidents)
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