Editorial

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6 pages, 190 KiB

Open AccessEditorial

Energy Planning

by Dolf Gielen

Energies 2022, 15(7), 2621; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15072621 - 03 Apr 2022

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1243

Abstract

This Special Issue focuses on progress in energy transition planning [...] Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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31 pages, 3544 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Translating Global Integrated Assessment Model Output into Lifestyle Change Pathways at the Country and Household Level

by Clare Hanmer, Charlie Wilson, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch and Detlef P. van Vuuren

Energies 2022, 15(5), 1650; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15051650 - 23 Feb 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 2183

Abstract

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with [...] Read more.

Countries’ emission reduction commitments under the Paris Agreement have significant implications for lifestyles. National planning to meet emission targets is based on modelling and analysis specific to individual countries, whereas global integrated assessment models provide scenario projections in a consistent framework but with less granular output. We contribute a novel methodology for translating global scenarios into lifestyle implications at the national and household levels, which is generalisable to any service or country and versatile to work with any model or scenario. Our 5Ds method post-processes Integrated Assessment Model projections of sectoral energy demand for the global region to derive energy-service-specific lifestyle change at the household level. We illustrate the methodology for two energy services (mobility, heating) in two countries (UK, Sweden), showing how effort to reach zero carbon targets varies between countries and households. Our method creates an analytical bridge between global model output and information that can be used at national and local levels, making clear the lifestyle implications of climate targets. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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17 pages, 2730 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Contribution of Road Transport to the Attainment of Ghana’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) through Biofuel Integration

by Peerawat Saisirirat, Johannex Fefeh Rushman, Kampanart Silva and Nuwong Chollacoop

Energies 2022, 15(3), 880; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15030880 - 26 Jan 2022

Cited by 9 | Viewed by 3179

Abstract

Since the Paris Agreement in COP21, many countries around the world, including Ghana and Thailand, have established a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with first update recently in COP26. With Ghana’s ongoing effort at COP26 to change its [...] Read more.

Since the Paris Agreement in COP21, many countries around the world, including Ghana and Thailand, have established a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, with first update recently in COP26. With Ghana’s ongoing effort at COP26 to change its baseline to 2019, this study established a detailed Ghana vehicle ownership model with necessary transport parameters to construct an energy demand model to provide insight for reducing GHG emission contributions from road transport through biofuel (both bioethanol and biodiesel) potential by recourse to a Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP), with two scenarios of development from Thailand’s best practice for policy recommendation, which are alternative (ALT), with up to E20/B20, and extreme (EXT), with up to E85/B50, for new vehicles. In each case, energy demand and GHG emissions were analyzed from detailed data on Ghana’s transport sector to show potential benefit from biofuel usages. From Ghana’s transport sector contribution to NDC, 8.4% and 11.1% of GHG emission reduction in 2030 can be achieved with a 0.13% and 0.27% additional arable land requirement from ALT and EXT scenarios. Policy recommendation and implication were also discussed. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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22 pages, 978 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Points of Consideration on Climate Adaptation of Solar Power Plants in Thailand: How Climate Change Affects Site Selection, Construction and Operation

by Kampanart Silva, Pidpong Janta and Nuwong Chollacoop

Energies 2022, 15(1), 171; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010171 - 28 Dec 2021

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3302

Abstract

Solar energy is planned to undergo large-scale deployment along with Thailand’s transformation to a carbon neutral society in 2050. In the course of energy transformation planning, the issue of energy infrastructure adaptation to climate change has often been left out. This study aims [...] Read more.

Solar energy is planned to undergo large-scale deployment along with Thailand’s transformation to a carbon neutral society in 2050. In the course of energy transformation planning, the issue of energy infrastructure adaptation to climate change has often been left out. This study aims to identify climate-related risks and countermeasures taken in solar power plants in Thailand using thematic analysis with self-administered observations and structured interviews in order to propose points of consideration during long-term energy planning to ensure climate adaptation capacity. The analysis pointed out that floods and storms were perceived as major climate events affecting solar power plants in Thailand, followed by lightning and fires. Several countermeasures were taken, including hard countermeasures that require extensive investment. Following policy recommendations were derived from the climate-proofing investment scenario study. Policy support in terms of enabling regulations or financial incentives is needed for implementation of climate-proofing countermeasures. Public and private sectors need to secure sufficient budget for fast recovery after severe climate incidents. Measures must be taken to facilitate selection of climate-resilient sites by improving conditions of power purchase agreement or assisting winning bidders in enhancing climate adaptability of their sites. These issues should be considered during Thailand’s long-term energy planning. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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18 pages, 21413 KiB

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Using Decomposition Analysis to Determine the Main Contributing Factors to Carbon Neutrality across Sectors

by Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Andries F. Hof, Vassilis Daioglou, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Maarten van den Berg, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst and Detlef P. van Vuuren

Energies 2022, 15(1), 132; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010132 - 24 Dec 2021

Cited by 8 | Viewed by 3052

Abstract

This paper uses decomposition analysis to investigate the key contributions to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different scenarios. We derive decomposition formulas for the three highest-emitting sectors: power generation, industry, and transportation (both passenger and freight). These formulas were applied to recently [...] Read more.

This paper uses decomposition analysis to investigate the key contributions to changes in greenhouse gas emissions in different scenarios. We derive decomposition formulas for the three highest-emitting sectors: power generation, industry, and transportation (both passenger and freight). These formulas were applied to recently developed 1.5 °C emission scenarios by the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE), emphasising the role of renewables and lifestyle changes. The decomposition analysis shows that carbon capture and storage (CCS), both from fossil fuel and bioenergy burning, renewables and reducing carbon intensity provide the largest contributions to emission reduction in the scenarios. Efficiency improvement is also critical, but part of the potential is already achieved in the Baseline scenario. The relative importance of different emission reduction drivers is similar in the OECD (characterised by relatively high per capita income levels and emissions) and non-OECD (characterised by relatively high carbon intensities of the economy) region, but there are some noteworthy differences. In the non-OECD region, improving efficiency in industry and transport and increasing the share of renewables in power generation are more important in reducing emissions than in the OECD region, while CCS in power generation and electrification of passenger transport are more important drivers in the OECD region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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26 pages, 6634 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Achieving Net Zero Emissions in Italy by 2050: Challenges and Opportunities

by Maria Gaeta, Corine Nsangwe Businge and Alberto Gelmini

Energies 2022, 15(1), 46; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15010046 - 22 Dec 2021

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 6401

Abstract

This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning, we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality, consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives [...] Read more.

This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning, we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality, consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives and the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 °C. Starting from the Italian framework, these scenarios identify the correlations among the main pillars for the change of the energy paradigm towards net emissions by 2050. The energy scenarios were developed using TIMES-RSE, a partial equilibrium and technology-rich optimization model of the entire Italian energy system. Subsequently, an in-depth analysis was developed with the sMTISIM, a long-term simulator of power system and electricity markets. The results show that, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the Italian energy system will have to experience profound transformations on multiple and strongly related dimensions. A predominantly renewable-based energy mix (at least 80–90% by 2050) is essential to decarbonize most of the final energy consumption. However, the strong increase of non-programmable renewable sources requires particular attention to new flexibility resources needed for the power system, such as Power-to-X. The green fuels produced from renewables via Power-to-X will be a vital energy source for those sectors where electrification faces technical and economic barriers. The paper’s findings also confirm that the European “energy efficiency first” principle represents the very first step on the road to climate neutrality. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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20 pages, 660 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Exploring the Long-Term Development of the Ukrainian Energy System

by Stefan N. Petrović, Oleksandr Diachuk, Roman Podolets, Andrii Semeniuk, Fabian Bühler, Rune Grandal, Mourad Boucenna and Olexandr Balyk

Energies 2021, 14(22), 7731; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14227731 - 18 Nov 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 2908

Abstract

This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited [...] Read more.

This study analyses the Ukrainian energy system in the context of the Paris Agreement and the need for the world to limit global warming to 1.5 °C. Despite ~84% of greenhouse gas emissions in Ukraine being energy- and process-related, there is very limited academic literature analysing long-term development of the Ukrainian energy system. This study utilises the TIMES-Ukraine model of the whole Ukrainian energy system to address this knowledge gap and to analyse how the energy system may develop until 2050, taking into current and future policies. The results show the development of the Ukrainian energy system based on energy efficiency improvements, electrification and renewable energy. The share of renewables in electricity production is predicted to reach between 45% and 57% in 2050 in the main scenarios with moderate emission reduction ambitions and ~80% in the ambitious alternative scenarios. The cost-optimal solution includes reduction of space heating demand in buildings by 20% in frozen policy and 70% in other scenarios, while electrification of industries leads to reductions in energy intensity of 26–36% in all scenarios except frozen policy. Energy efficiency improvements and emission reductions in the transport sector are achieved through increased use of electricity from 2020 in all scenarios except frozen policy, reaching 40–51% in 2050. The stated policies present a cost-efficient alternative for keeping Ukraine’s greenhouse gas emissions at today’s level. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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27 pages, 6673 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reliability Metrics for Generation Planning and the Role of Regulation in the Energy Transition: Case Studies of Brazil and Mexico

by Ana Werlang, Gabriel Cunha, João Bastos, Juliana Serra, Bruno Barbosa and Luiz Barroso

Energies 2021, 14(21), 7428; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14217428 - 08 Nov 2021

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 1953

Abstract

In recent years electricity sectors worldwide have undergone major transformations, referred to as the “energy transition”. This has required energy planning to quickly adapt to provide useful inputs to the regulation activity so that a cost-effective electricity market emerges to facilitate the integration [...] Read more.

In recent years electricity sectors worldwide have undergone major transformations, referred to as the “energy transition”. This has required energy planning to quickly adapt to provide useful inputs to the regulation activity so that a cost-effective electricity market emerges to facilitate the integration of renewables. This paper analyzes the role of system planning and regulations on two specific elements in the energy market design: the concept of firm capacity and the presence of distributed energy resources, both of which can be influenced by regulation. We assess the total cost of different regulatory mechanisms in the Brazilian and Mexican systems using optimization tools to determine optimal long-term expansion for a given regulatory framework. In particular, we quantitatively analyze the role of the current regulation in the total cost of these two electricity systems when compared to a reference “efficient” energy planning scenario that adopts standard cost-minimization principles and that is well suited to the most relevant features of the new energy transformation scenario. We show that two very common features of regulatory designs that can lead to distortions are: (i) renewables commonly having a lower “perceived cost” under the current regulations, either due to direct incentives such as tax breaks or due to indirect access to more attractive contracts or financing conditions; and (ii) requirements for reliability are often defined more conservatively than they should be, overstating the hardships imposed by renewable generation on the existing system and underestimating their potential to form portfolios. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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21 pages, 3276 KiB

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A Probabilistic and Value-Based Planning Approach to Assess the Competitiveness between Gas-Fired and Renewables in Hydro-Dominated Systems: A Brazilian Case Study

by Felipe Nazaré, Luiz Barroso and Bernardo Bezerra

Energies 2021, 14(21), 7281; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14217281 - 03 Nov 2021

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1280

Abstract

The main challenge with the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in thermal-dominated systems has been the increase in the need for operating reserves, relying on dispatchable and flexible resources. In the case of hydro-dominated systems, the cost-effective flexibility provided by hydro-plants facilitates [...] Read more.

The main challenge with the penetration of variable renewable energy (VRE) in thermal-dominated systems has been the increase in the need for operating reserves, relying on dispatchable and flexible resources. In the case of hydro-dominated systems, the cost-effective flexibility provided by hydro-plants facilitates the penetration of VRE, but the compounded production variability of these resources challenges the integration of baseload gas-fired plants. The Brazilian power system illustrates this situation, in which the development of large associated gas fields economically depends on the operation of gas-fired plants. Given the current competitiveness of VRE, a natural question is the economic value and tradeoffs for expanding the system opting between baseload gas-fired generation and VRE in an already flexible hydropower system. This paper presents a methodology based on a multi-stage and stochastic capacity expansion model to estimate the optimal mix of baseload thermal power plants and VRE additions considering their contributions for security of supply, which includes peak, energy, and operating reserves, which are endogenously defined in a time-varying and sized in a dynamic way as well as adequacy constraints. The presented model calculates the optimal decision plan, allowing for the estimation of the economical tradeoffs between baseload gas and VRE supply considering their value for the required services to the system. This allows for a comparison between the integration costs of these technologies on the same basis, thus helping policymakers and system planners to better decide on the best way to integrate the gas resources in an electricity industry increasingly renewable. A case study based on a real industrial application is presented for the Brazilian power system. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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24 pages, 2287 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Colombia’s GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario: Complete Representation of the Energy and Non-Energy Sectors in LEAP

by Juan David Correa-Laguna, Maarten Pelgrims, Monica Espinosa Valderrama and Ricardo Morales

Energies 2021, 14(21), 7078; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14217078 - 29 Oct 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2348

Abstract

The signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must submit their updated Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every five years. In Colombia, this activity was historically carried out with a wide set of diverse non-interconnected sector-specific models. Given the complexity [...] Read more.

The signatory countries of the Paris Agreement must submit their updated Intended National Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the UNFCCC secretariat every five years. In Colombia, this activity was historically carried out with a wide set of diverse non-interconnected sector-specific models. Given the complexity of GHG emissions reporting and the evaluation of mitigation actions on a national scale, the need for a centralized platform was evident. Such approach would allow the integration and analysis of potential interactions among sectors, as well as to guarantee the homogeneity of assumptions and input parameters. In this paper, we describe the construction of an integrated bottom-up LEAP model tailored to the Colombian case, which covers all IPCC sectors. An integrated model facilitates capturing synergies and intersectoral interactions within the national GHG emissions system. Hence, policies addressing one sector and influencing others are identified and correctly assessed. Thus, 44 mitigation policies and mitigation actions were included in the model, in this way, identifying the sectors directly and being indirectly affected by them. The mitigation scenario developed in this paper reaches a reduction of 28% of GHG emissions compared with the reference scenario. The importance of including non-energy sectors is evident in the Colombian case, as GHG emission reductions are mainly driven by AFOLU. The first section describes the GHG emissions context in Colombia. Next, we describe the model structure, main input parameters, assumptions, considerations, and used LEAP functionalities. Results are presented from a GHG emissions accounting and energy demand perspective. The model allows for the correct estimate of the scope and potential of mitigation actions by considering indirect, unintended emissions reductions in all IPCC categories, as well as synergies with all mitigation actions included in the mitigation scenario. Moreover, the structure of the model is suitable for testing potential emission trajectories, facilitating its adoption by official entities and its application in climate policymaking. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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22 pages, 8028 KiB

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Preparing the Ecuador’s Power Sector to Enable a Large-Scale Electric Land Transport

by Janeth Carolina Godoy, Daniel Villamar, Rafael Soria, César Vaca, Thomas Hamacher and Freddy Ordóñez

Energies 2021, 14(18), 5728; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14185728 - 11 Sep 2021

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 2937

Abstract

The Ecuador’s expansion plans for the power sector promote the exploitation of hydro power potential, natural gas and a small share of alternative renewable energies. In 2019, electricity generation reached 76.3% from hydroelectric power, 21.9% from thermal plants and 1.8% from other renewable [...] Read more.

The Ecuador’s expansion plans for the power sector promote the exploitation of hydro power potential, natural gas and a small share of alternative renewable energies. In 2019, electricity generation reached 76.3% from hydroelectric power, 21.9% from thermal plants and 1.8% from other renewable resources. Although the power energy mix is mainly based on renewable technologies, the total energy demand is still dependent on fossil fuels, which is the case of the transport sector that alone accounted for 50% of the total primary energy consumed in the country. This paper analyzes the pathway to develop a clean and diversified electricity mix, covering the demand of three specific development levels of electric transportation. The linear optimization model (urbs) and the Ecuador Land Use and Energy Netwrok Analysis (ELENA) are used to optimize the expansion of the power system in the period from 2020 to 2050. Results show that reaching an electricity mix 100% based on renewable energies is possible and still cover a highly electrified transport that includes 47.8% of land passenger, and 5.9% of land freight transport. Therefore, the electrification of this sector is a viable alternative for the country to rely on its own energy resources, while reinforcing its future climate change mitigation commitments. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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28 pages, 4127 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Zero-Emission Pathway for the Global Chemical and Petrochemical Sector

by Deger Saygin and Dolf Gielen

Energies 2021, 14(13), 3772; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14133772 - 23 Jun 2021

Cited by 54 | Viewed by 9536

Abstract

The chemical and petrochemical sector relies on fossil fuels and feedstocks, and is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The techno-economic potential of 20 decarbonisation options is assessed. While previous analyses focus on the production processes, this analysis covers [...] Read more.

The chemical and petrochemical sector relies on fossil fuels and feedstocks, and is a major source of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions. The techno-economic potential of 20 decarbonisation options is assessed. While previous analyses focus on the production processes, this analysis covers the full product life cycle CO₂ emissions. The analysis elaborates the carbon accounting complexity that results from the non-energy use of fossil fuels, and highlights the importance of strategies that consider the carbon stored in synthetic organic products—an aspect that warrants more attention in long-term energy scenarios and strategies. Average mitigation costs in the sector would amount to 64 United States dollars (USD) per tonne of CO₂ for full decarbonisation in 2050. The rapidly declining renewables cost is one main cause for this low-cost estimate. Renewable energy supply solutions, in combination with electrification, account for 40% of total emissions reductions. Annual biomass use grows to 1.3 gigatonnes; green hydrogen electrolyser capacity grows to 2435 gigawatts and recycling rates increase six-fold, while product demand is reduced by a third, compared to the reference case. CO₂ capture, storage and use equals 30% of the total decarbonisation effort (1.49 gigatonnes per year), where about one-third of the captured CO₂ is of biogenic origin. Circular economy concepts, including recycling, account for 16%, while energy efficiency accounts for 12% of the decarbonisation needed. Achieving full decarbonisation in this sector will increase energy and feedstock costs by more than 35%. The analysis shows the importance of renewables-based solutions, accounting for more than half of the total emissions reduction potential, which was higher than previous estimates. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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25 pages, 19330 KiB

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It Is Still Possible to Achieve the Paris Climate Agreement: Regional, Sectoral, and Land-Use Pathways

by Sven Teske, Thomas Pregger, Sonja Simon, Tobias Naegler, Johannes Pagenkopf, Özcan Deniz, Bent van den Adel, Kate Dooley and Malte Meinshausen

Energies 2021, 14(8), 2103; https://doi.org/10.3390/en14082103 - 09 Apr 2021

Cited by 33 | Viewed by 14270

Abstract

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy [...] Read more.

It is still possible to comply with the Paris Climate Agreement to maintain a global temperature ‘well below +2.0 °C’ above pre-industrial levels. We present two global non-overshoot pathways (+2.0 °C and +1.5 °C) with regional decarbonization targets for the four primary energy sectors—power, heating, transportation, and industry—in 5-year steps to 2050. We use normative scenarios to illustrate the effects of efficiency measures and renewable energy use, describe the roles of increased electrification of the final energy demand and synthetic fuels, and quantify the resulting electricity load increases for 72 sub-regions. Non-energy scenarios include a phase-out of net emissions from agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, reductions in non-carbon greenhouse gases, and land restoration to scale up atmospheric CO₂ removal, estimated at −377 Gt CO₂ to 2100. An estimate of the COVID-19 effects on the global energy demand is included and a sensitivity analysis describes the impacts if implementation is delayed by 5, 7, or 10 years, which would significantly reduce the likelihood of achieving the 1.5 °C goal. The analysis applies a model network consisting of energy system, power system, transport, land-use, and climate models. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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21 pages, 16664 KiB

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Best Practice in Government Use and Development of Long-Term Energy Transition Scenarios

by Pablo E. Carvajal, Asami Miketa, Nadeem Goussous and Pauline Fulcheri

Energies 2022, 15(6), 2180; https://doi.org/10.3390/en15062180 - 16 Mar 2022

Cited by 7 | Viewed by 3025

Abstract

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) have been serving as an important planning tool by a wide range of institutions. This article focuses on how LTES have been used (and also devised in some cases) in the government sector, and specifically how the new challenges [...] Read more.

Long-term energy scenarios (LTES) have been serving as an important planning tool by a wide range of institutions. This article focuses on how LTES have been used (and also devised in some cases) in the government sector, and specifically how the new challenges and opportunities brought by the aspiration for the clean energy transition change the way that governments use LTES. The information tends to remain tacit, and a gap exists in understanding the way to enhance LTES use and development at the government level. To address this gap, we draw on the experience from national institutions that are leading the improvement in official energy scenario planning to articulate a set of overarching best practices to (i) strengthen LTES development, (ii) effectively use LTES for strategic energy planning and (iii) enhance institutional capacity for LTES-based energy planning, all in the context of new challenges associated with the clean energy transition. We present implementation experience collected through the International Renewable Agency’s LTES Network activities to exemplify these best practices. We highlight that in the context of the broad and complex challenges of a clean energy transition driven by ambitious climate targets, the LTES-based energy planning methodologies need to evolve, reflecting the changing landscapes, and that more effective and extensive use of LTES in government needs to be further encouraged. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Energy Planning)

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