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Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region

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A special issue of Climate (ISSN 2225-1154). This special issue belongs to the section "Climate Dynamics and Modelling".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 30 June 2024 | Viewed by 26658

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Dr. Nir Y. Krakauer

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Department of Civil Engineering, City College of New York, New York, NY 10031, USA
Interests: climate change; water resources planning; groundwater; land–atmosphere interaction; sustainable agriculture; urban ecological design; carbon cycle monitoring; renewable energy resource assessment; probabilistic forecasting; data assimilation; model uncertainty assessment
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Prof. Dr. Mohammed Achite

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Laboratory of Water and Environment, Faculty of Nature and Life Sciences, Hassiba Benbouali University of Chlef, Chlef 02180, Algeria
Interests: hydrology; environment; machine learning; remote sensing; hydroinformatics
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Dr. Tommaso Caloiero

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National Research Council (CNR), Institute for Agricultural and Forest Systems in the Mediterranean (ISAFOM), Via Cavour 4/6, 87936 Rende, Italy
Interests: hydrology; climatology; climate change; natural hazards; land use chance; forest ecology
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Dr. Sharon Gourdji

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Greenhouse Gas Measurements Program, National Institute of Standards & Technology, Gaithersburg, MD 20899, USA
Interests: biospheric carbon cycle modeling; crop modeling; climate variability and change; greenhouse gas emission monitoring

Dr. Andrzej Wałęga

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Department of Sanitary Engineering and Water Management, University of Agriculture in Krakow, 30-059 Krakow, Poland
Interests: hydrology; water management; urban water management; climate change
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The Mediterranean is a region of rugged topography, with dominantly winter precipitation alongside summer aridity, unique biodiversity, and a long human history. The landscape has been shaped by pronounced climate variability over timescales from seasons to millennia. Currently, the region is a climate change hotspot and is experiencing challenges ranging from drought and fire to intense floods and water quality concerns. Understanding climate variability and its impacts requires the integration of observational (in situ and remote sensing), simulation, and statistical methods. This Special Issue welcomes submissions across disciplines including archaeology and paleoclimatology, meteorology, modeling of climate variability and change, hydrologic and geomorphologic aspects, biology and ecology, the social sciences, and urban studies. We are particularly seeking contributions that provide fresh perspectives, apply novel tools to regional problems, and set climate variability and change in broader contexts.

Dr. Nir Y. Krakauer
Prof. Dr. Mohammed Achite
Dr. Tommaso Caloiero
Dr. Sharon Gourdji
Dr. Andrzej Wałęga
Guest Editors

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Keywords

Africa
aridity
Asia
climate variability and change
climate–society nexus
Europe
hydrology
land cover and land use change
teleconnections
urban climate

Published Papers (9 papers)

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Research

35 pages, 32978 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Microclimate Analysis of Outdoor Showcases in Tropical Climate—Two Case Studies in Al Ain, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

by Dario Camuffo, Antonio della Valle, Roberta Giorio, Francesco Rizzi, Patrizia Barucco, Marivita Suma, Jalal Ahmed, Amel Chabbi, Ola Shaker and Peter Sheehan

Climate 2024, 12(1), 6; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli12010006 - 06 Jan 2024

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1814

Abstract

Al Ain, near Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, is characterized by hot desert climate with high temperatures, aridity, and almost no rain. Several truncated earthen walls were discovered at the historic house of Sheikh Mohammed Bin Khalifa, a component of the World Heritage Cultural Sites. These remains are preserved in situ, outdoors, protected in glass showcases for public display. As this situation is not documented in the literature, the local Authority has requested to study the showcase environment to optimize conservation. The solar radiation and the projected shades have been modeled over one year; the temperature and humidity inside and outside the showcases, as well as the moisture content, have been measured to assess the potential preservation risks. The paper presents the results, i.e., the direct solar radiation generates extreme conditions of greenhouse effect with extremely high temperatures and forces evaporation from the remains. During the night, the excess moisture condenses on the inner surface of the glass panes, forming large drops that affect viewing and are dangerous for conservation. The repetition of evaporation–condensation cycles accumulates soluble salts on the remains. The paper discusses mitigation strategies (e.g., shading, ventilation, and cooling, to reduce the greenhouse effect) to improve conservation and fruition. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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12 pages, 2831 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Homogeneity Assessment and Correction Methodology for the 1980–2022 Daily Temperature Series in Padua, Italy

by Claudio Stefanini, Francesca Becherini, Antonio della Valle, Francesco Rech, Fabio Zecchini and Dario Camuffo

Climate 2023, 11(12), 244; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11120244 - 15 Dec 2023

Viewed by 1641

Abstract

Meteorological observations over the last four decades are of paramount importance to investigating ongoing climate change. An important issue is the quality and reliability of the climatic series, which are fundamental prerequisites to drawing the correct conclusions. Homogeneity tests are used to detect discontinuities whose interpretation is facilitated by metadata availability. In this work, daily minimum and maximum temperature measurements collected in Padua, Italy, between 1980 and 2022 are examined. During this period, the weather station of Padua center underwent many changes in location or instruments; therefore, some tests have been used to identify and remove their effects and obtain homogeneous series. Some well-known absolute tests have been applied to investigate the shift in the mean value: Standard Normal Homogeneity test (SNH), Buishand U and range tests, Pettitt test, F-test, and STARS. Relative tests have been applied too, using several stations nearby Padua and two reanalysis datasets (ERA5 and MERIDA) as reference series to enhance the picture of the local situation and provide more robust conclusions. The applied tests identify change-points in the years in which a change in instrument or the location of the station has occurred, confirming that these changes have compromised the homogeneity of the series. The sub-series obtained, splitting the observations in correspondence with these change-points, have been homogenized with respect to a selected period. The corrected series of the minimum and maximum temperatures are more coherent with the modern warming trend. The transfer functions to be applied to future measurements of minimum temperature have been calculated, while the series of maximum temperature measurements can be directly extended. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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27 pages, 56981 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Wind–Wave Conditions and Change in Coastal Landforms at the Beach–Dune Barrier of Cesine Lagoon (South Italy)

by Marco Delle Rose and Paolo Martano

Climate 2023, 11(6), 128; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060128 - 10 Jun 2023

Viewed by 1452

Abstract

Several coastal barriers experienced significant erosion and change in shape throughout the Mediterranean coasts over the past decades, and the issue has become of increasing concern for scientists and policymakers. With reference to a case study and by meteorological and geomorphological investigations, this note aims to define the wind–wave conditions, infer the net longshore transport, and detect the geomorphological processes that shape the landforms of the Cesine Lagoon barrier (South Italy). Despite the importance of the site in coastal defense and environmental conservation, there are still no specific studies. A challenge for this research was to obtain significant results from publicly available sources and simple and inexpensive methods. Geomorphological changes, such as the retreat of dune toes, accretion of washover fans, and formation of gravel beaches, are related to the analyzed wind–wave conditions. The net longshore transport is found in accordance with the direction of the more intense winds. The role of extreme events in the shaping of coastal landforms is yet to be established, even if they greatly increase the vulnerability to flooding of the study area. The results achieved so far are starting points for further data collection and analysis in the perspective of assessing the impact of climate changes and the threatening hazards on the lagoon barrier. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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18 pages, 2036 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Performance Evaluation of TerraClimate Monthly Rainfall Data after Bias Correction in the Fes-Meknes Region (Morocco)

by Mohamed Hanchane, Ridouane Kessabi, Nir Y. Krakauer, Abderrazzak Sadiki, Jaafar El Kassioui and Imane Aboubi

Climate 2023, 11(6), 120; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11060120 - 27 May 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1824

Abstract

Morocco’s meteorological observation network is quite old, but the spatial coverage is insufficient to conduct studies over large areas, especially in mountainous regions, such as the Fez-Meknes region, where spatio-temporal variability in precipitation depends on altitude and exposure. The lack of station data is the main reason that led us to look for alternative solutions. TerraClimate (TC) reanalysis data were used to remedy this situation. However, reanalysis data are usually affected by a bias in the raw values. Bias correction methods generally involve a procedure in which a “transfer function” between the simulated and corrected variable is derived from the cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of these variables. We explore the possibilities of using TC precipitation data for the Fez-Meknes administrative region (Morocco). This examination is of great interest for the region whose mountain peaks constitute the most important reservoir of water in the country, where TC data can overcome the difficulty of estimating precipitation in mountainous regions where the spatio-temporal variability is very high. Thus, we carried out the validation of TC data on stations belonging to plain and mountain topographic units and having different bioclimatic and topographic characteristics. Overall, the results demonstrate that the TC data capture the altitudinal gradient of precipitation and the average rainfall pattern, with a maximum in November and a minimum in July, which is a characteristic of the Mediterranean climate. However, we identified quasi-systematic biases, negative in mountainous regions and positive in lowland stations. In addition, summer precipitation is overestimated in mountain regions. It is considered that this bias comes from the imperfect representation of the physical processes of rainfall formation by the models. To reduce this bias, we applied the quantile mapping (QM) method. After correction using five QM variants, a significant improvement was observed for all stations and most months, except for May. Validation statistics for the five bias correction variants do not indicate the superiority of any particular method in terms of robustness. Indeed, results indicate that most QM methods lead to a significant improvement in TC data after monthly bias corrections. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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15 pages, 5860 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Mediterranean Influence on the Climatic Regime over the Balkan Peninsula from 1901–2021

by Elisaveta Peneva, Mirna Matov and Milen Tsekov

Climate 2023, 11(3), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli11030068 - 15 Mar 2023

Cited by 1 | Viewed by 2147

Abstract

The Balkan Peninsula is a geographical region under various large-scale climatic influences, one of the most significant being the Mediterranean Sea in the southwest and the continent in the northeast. The novelty of this study is that the border between the zones with prevailing maritime or continental climate conditions is clearly identified by the month with the highest precipitation during the year. We use the gridded data product TS_4.06 of the Climatic Research Unit for monthly precipitation to identify the timing of the maximum rainfall at different locations. The grid boxes with highest precipitation in the cold part of the year (October to March) are considered to be under prevailing Mediterranean influences and, on the contrary, the ones with the highest precipitation are in the warm part of the year (April to September); these are climates with prevailing continental characteristics. In general, this border separates the zones with Cs and Dw types of climates. Its spatial variability at a decadal time-scale is discussed for the period from 1901–2021 and a general weakening of the Mediterranean influence over the Balkan Peninsula is found. However, for the last three decades, from 1991–2021, the tendency is the opposite. A periodicity of ~20 years is identified, suggesting that during the decade of 2020–2030, the Mediterranean influence in this region will dominate. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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20 pages, 1694 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Reconstitution of the Climate in the Municipality of Guimarães (Northern Portugal): A Regional Approach Based on Historical Information and the Record of Measured Data

by Leonel J.R. Nunes

Climate 2022, 10(5), 68; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050068 - 10 May 2022

Viewed by 3225

Abstract

Climate change is a global phenomenon that has become a focus of concern for society, mainly due to its impacts on daily lives. Despite being a global issue that affects the entire planet, these effects are not felt in the same way in all regions, so the analysis of processes from a regional or local perspective allows a better adaptation of populations to the new reality, as well as being used as a supporting tool for decision making when implementing mitigation measures. For the present analysis, a region in Northern Portugal was chosen, which is in the Mediterranean region, considered one of the hot spots for climate change. In this region of Entre Douro e Minho, more specifically in the municipality of Guimarães, the climate of the last centuries was reconstructed based on documentary information and recent data collected and modeled for the region under study. The results show a successive alternation of hot and dry periods with colder and wetter ones, where climate instability seems to be the dominant trend over the last thousand years. Currently, with the advent of a new period of climatic instability, which, unlike the periods verified previously, now have an anthropic origin, there is a tendency for a new period to occur, in which conditions will tend to be hotter and drier. Knowing this trend in advance allows informed decisions to be made to mitigate some problems that can be associated with these conditions, such as the increase in the risk of wildfires, the proliferation of invasive species, the decrease in agriculture and forests productivity, or even the occurrence of extreme weather events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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17 pages, 7058 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Homogenization and Trends Analysis of Monthly Precipitation Series in the Fez-Meknes Region, Morocco

by Ridouane Kessabi, Mohamed Hanchane, Jose A. Guijarro, Nir Y. Krakauer, Rachid Addou, Abderrazzak Sadiki and Mohamed Belmahi

Climate 2022, 10(5), 64; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10050064 - 05 May 2022

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 4159

Abstract

High quality and long-term precipitation data are required to study the variability and trends of rainfall and the impact of climate change. In developing countries like Morocco, the quality of climate data collected from various weather stations faces numerous obstacles. This paper presents methods for collecting, correcting, reconstructing, and homogenizing precipitation series of Morocco’s Fez-Meknes region from 1961 to 2019. Data collected from national specialized agencies based on 83 rain gauge stations was processed through an algorithm specially designed for the homogenization of climatic data (Climatol). We applied the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator to raw and homogenized data to calculate rainfall trend magnitudes and significance. The homogenization process allows for the detection of a larger number of stations with statistically significant negative trends with 95% and 90% confidence levels, particularly in the mountain ranges, that threatens the main sources of water in the largest watershed in the country. The regionalization of our rain gauge stations is highlighted and compared to previous studies. The monthly and annual means of raw and homogenized data show minor differences over the three main climate zones of the region. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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18 pages, 26270 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Forecasting of SPI and SRI Using Multiplicative ARIMA under Climate Variability in a Mediterranean Region: Wadi Ouahrane Basin, Algeria

by Mohammed Achite, Ommolbanin Bazrafshan, Zahra Azhdari, Andrzej Wałęga, Nir Krakauer and Tommaso Caloiero

Climate 2022, 10(3), 36; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10030036 - 04 Mar 2022

Cited by 15 | Viewed by 3536

Abstract

Water resources have always been a major concern, particularly in arid and semiarid parts of the world. Low precipitation and its uneven distribution in Algeria, along with fast population and agriculture activity increase and, particularly, recent droughts, have made water availability one of the country’s most pressing issues. The objectives of the studies reported in this article are to investigate and forecast the meteorological and hydrological drought in Wadi Ouahrane basin (270 km²) using linear stochastic models known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and multiplicative Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). In particular, data from 6 precipitation stations and 1 hydrometric station for the period 1972–2018 were used to evaluate the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) for 12 months. Then, the multiplicative ARIMA model was applied to forecasting drought based on SPI and SRI. As a result, the ARIMA model (1,0,1)(0,0,1)₁₂ for SPI and (1,0,1)(1,0,1)₁₂ for SRI were shown to be the best models for drought forecast. In fact, both models exhibited high quality for SPI and SRI of 0.97 and 0.51 for 1-month and 12-month lead time, respectively, based on validation R². In general, prediction skill decreases with increase in lead time. The models can be used with reasonable accuracy to forecast droughts with up to 12 months of lead time. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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17 pages, 2619 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Modeling Soil Organic Carbon Changes under Alternative Climatic Scenarios and Soil Properties Using DNDC Model at a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Environment

by Ibtissame Lembaid, Rachid Moussadek, Rachid Mrabet and Ahmed Bouhaouss

Climate 2022, 10(2), 23; https://doi.org/10.3390/cli10020023 - 09 Feb 2022

Cited by 5 | Viewed by 4303

Abstract

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is one of the central issues in dealing with soil fertility as well as environmental and food safety. Due to the lack of relevant data sources and methodologies, analyzing SOC dynamics has been a challenge in Morocco. During the last two decades, process-based models have been adopted as alternative and powerful tools for modeling SOC dynamics; whereas, information and knowledge on the most sensitive model inputs under different climate, and soil conditions are still very limited. For this purpose, a sensitivity analysis was conducted in the present work, using the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model based on the data collected at a semi-arid region (Merchouch station, Morocco). The objective is to identify the most influential factors affecting the DNDC-modeled SOC dynamics in a semi-arid region across different climatic and soil conditions. The results of sensitivity analysis highlighted air temperature as the main determinant of SOC. A decrease in air temperature of 4 °C results in an almost 161 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ increase in C sequestration rate. Initial SOC was also confirmed to be one of the most sensitive parameters for SOC. There was a 96 kg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ increase in C sequestration rate under low initial SOC (0.005 kg C ha⁻¹). In the DNDC, air temperature in climatic factors and initial SOC in variable soil properties had the largest impacts on SOC accumulation in Merchouch station. We can conclude that the sensitivity analysis conducted in this study within the DNDC can contribute to provide a scientific evidence of uncertainties of the selected inputs variables who can lead to uncertainties on the SOC in the study site. The information in this paper can be helpful for scientists and policy makers, who are dealing with regions of similar environmental conditions as Merchouch Station, by identifying alternative scenarios of soil carbon sequestration. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region)

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