Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 10 May 2024 | Viewed by 3651

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies, National Climate Center, Beijing 100081, China
Interests: subseasonal-to seasonal prediction; predictability; Madden–Julian oscillation; extreme event; Northeast cold vortex

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In the context of global warming, increasing numbers of extreme climate events are occurring in China, with amplifying intensity and expanding influence. Extreme climate events, such as the super Meiyu in 2020, the persistent rainfall in North China in autumn 2021, and the record-breaking high temperature and drought in the Yangtze River Basin in 2022, have had a significant impact on agricultural production and social economy, and have even posed a large threat to people's lives and property. Therefore, it has become necessary to analyze the characteristics and understand the causes of these anomalous climates and extreme events over China. Documenting and explaining the most significant extreme climate events are vital to improve scientific understanding of the fast-evolving climate, and to provide the public and policymakers with timely, peer-reviewed, authoritative scientific information.

Therefore, the main objective of this Special Issue is to contribute to our understanding of extreme climate events over China and to provide science-based knowledge and novel approaches to predict extreme events in terms of subseasonal-to-seasonal timescales. We encourage authors to share their opinions, knowledge, and achievements regarding the characteristics, mechanisms, predictability, and prediction methods of extreme events and the influence of human activities and future projection. New methods of measurements and detection of extreme events, such as the use of satellite data or deep learning methods to identify and forecast extreme events, are also encouraged. In particular, the following topics are of great interest:

  • Multi-scale characteristics of extreme climate events;
  • Mechanisms of extreme climate events;
  • Predictability and prediction methods;
  • Trends of extreme climate events and their interaction with human activities;
  • Use of deep learning methods to identify and forecast extreme climate events.

Dr. Jie Wu
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • extreme climate events
  • characteristics analysis
  • predictability
  • prediction methods
  • projection

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

26 pages, 9167 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Hydrometeorological Factors in the Source Region of the Dongting Lake Basin, China
by Shanshan Li, Changbo Jiang, Yuan Ma and Chuannan Li
Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1793; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121793 - 06 Dec 2023
Viewed by 810
Abstract
The Dongting Lake basin, located in the middle Yangtze River region, has long been under the threat of climate change. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive analysis and research on the long-term trends and interactions among hydrometeorological factors within the region. [...] Read more.
The Dongting Lake basin, located in the middle Yangtze River region, has long been under the threat of climate change. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive analysis and research on the long-term trends and interactions among hydrometeorological factors within the region. To address this gap, this study collected data from 31 meteorological stations in the region and employed statistical analysis methods, including the non-parametric Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope test, and cross-wavelet analysis. The results revealed significant increases in temperatures, especially in the spring season, while summer, winter, and annual rainfall also exhibited a significant increase. However, spring and autumn rainfall showed a non-significant decrease, and there was a clear decreasing trend in annual streamflow. Interestingly, evaporation demonstrated a significant increasing trend. The annual average temperature and annual runoff exhibited approximately negative correlations in the 6–10-year resonance period and positive correlations in the 4–6-year resonance period. There are significant positive resonance periods in the relationship between annual precipitation and annual runoff within the range of 0–12 years, indicating that precipitation has a substantial impact and serves as the primary source of runoff. Furthermore, there was a transition between “abundance” and “dry” periods in the annual runoff around 4 a, occurring before and after 1973 and 2005. The change points in annual precipitation and runoff were identified as 1993 and 1983. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China)
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30 pages, 16190 KiB  
Article
Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Hourly-Scale Extreme Precipitation in the Sichuan Basin and Its Impact on Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Values
by Ying Xiang, Zhongliang Li, Yixiao Wu, Keqing Wang and Jie Yang
Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1719; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121719 - 22 Nov 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 765
Abstract
This study harnesses ground observation data collected between 1980 and 2021 and ERA5 hourly data to thoroughly implement trend and correlation analysis techniques to explore the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of daily and hourly extreme precipitation in the Sichuan Basin. The investigation delineates these [...] Read more.
This study harnesses ground observation data collected between 1980 and 2021 and ERA5 hourly data to thoroughly implement trend and correlation analysis techniques to explore the spatiotemporal dynamic characteristics of daily and hourly extreme precipitation in the Sichuan Basin. The investigation delineates these characteristics and probes into the potential triggers of extreme hourly rainstorms. The findings unveil the following: (1) A general increase in extreme rainfall volume, contribution rate, intensity, and dispersion, along with a decline in frequency and proportion of rainstorm areas, indicating the concentration of daily-scale severe rainstorms. The basin’s edge receives more precipitation than the bottom, exhibiting latitudinal variations. (2) The northernmost mountainous regions have less frequent, less intense rainstorms influenced by terrain, whereas the northeastern region experiences more frequent, dispersed rainstorms. (3) Extreme hourly rainstorms predominantly occur at night, with rainfall amount, intensity, and frequency declining at 21:00 compared to 19:00. (4) Summer experiences the highest risk of extreme rainstorms, with annual and monthly datasets displaying a rising trend in the frequency, dispersion, and intensity of intense hourly rainstorms. (5) Peak values of extreme hourly rainstorms are growing, with two distinct periods for their frequency: 1:00–9:00 and 10:00–24:00, with an increase in the former and a decrease in the latter. (6) Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values ascend from southwest to northeast within the basin on a ten-day scale, correlating with the distribution of hourly extreme precipitation. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China)
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18 pages, 4460 KiB  
Article
The Frequency of Extreme Cold Events in North China and Their Relationship with Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies
by Na Yang, Liping Li, Yike Ren, Wenjie Ni and Lu Liu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(11), 1699; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14111699 - 17 Nov 2023
Viewed by 849
Abstract
This study investigated the interdecadal characteristics of the frequency of the winter single station extreme cold events (SSECEs) in North China and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed the following: (a) The SSECEs occurred frequently before 1991, but less [...] Read more.
This study investigated the interdecadal characteristics of the frequency of the winter single station extreme cold events (SSECEs) in North China and their relationship with sea surface temperature (SST). The results showed the following: (a) The SSECEs occurred frequently before 1991, but less thereafter, with an increase after 2018. The first two interdecadal modes of the SSECE frequency were east–west inverse and “n” patterns. (b) The interdecadal abrupt change of the “n” pattern occurred around 1997/1998. Before 1997/1998, the synergistic effects between the positive Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (+IPO) and the negative North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (−AMO) triggered the “two troughs and one ridge” anomalous circulation in Eurasia. The Rossby wave energy propagated downstream from the Atlantic, strengthening the Lake Baikal ridge. Furthermore, the Siberian High (SH) became weaker in the north and stronger in the south. With the favorable jet conditions, the cold air invaded North China along the northerly airflow in front of the Lake Baikal ridge, resulting in the frequent SSECE occurrence in central North China. Afterwards, the opposite occurred. (c) The cooperation of SST anomalies (SSTAs) led to the east–west inverse anomaly of the SSECE frequency. Before 1991, the high SSTAs in the central North Atlantic and low SSTAs in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the southwest Pacific triggered “+”, “−”, “+”, and “−” wave trains at mid-latitudes from the Atlantic to the North Pacific. The Rossby wave energy propagated eastward from the Atlantic, resulting in the SH and Urals ridge strengthening, and the Aleutian Low and East Asian trough deepening. The northwestern airflow in front of the Urals ridge guided the cold air into North China, leading to frequent SSECEs in central and eastern North China before 1991. The opposite occurred between 1992 and 2018. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China)
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17 pages, 8491 KiB  
Article
Predictive Study on Extreme Precipitation Trends in Henan and Their Impact on Population Exposure
by Zongming Wang, Yuyan Wu, Shiping Xi and Xuerong Sun
Atmosphere 2023, 14(10), 1484; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14101484 - 25 Sep 2023
Viewed by 796
Abstract
This study employs precipitation data sets from historical trials on 20 CMIP6 global climate models and four shared socioeconomic pathway scenario trials (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to predict trends in extreme precipitation changes in Henan Province quantitatively, while ascertaining the risk of [...] Read more.
This study employs precipitation data sets from historical trials on 20 CMIP6 global climate models and four shared socioeconomic pathway scenario trials (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) to predict trends in extreme precipitation changes in Henan Province quantitatively, while ascertaining the risk of population exposure to extreme precipitation in this area. The capacity of the CMIP6 models to simulate extreme precipitation indices from 1985 to 2014 is assessed using CN05.1 daily precipitation observational data. The correlation coefficients of the multi-model ensemble median’s simulation of the extreme precipitation indices are approximately 0.8, with a standard deviation ratio closer to 1 compared with the single models, demonstrating superior modeling ability. Analyses using the multi-model ensemble median demonstrate an overall increase in the total amount, frequency, and intensity of extreme precipitation in Henan throughout this century, particularly in its southern regions; in the mid-century high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the maximum increase in annual total precipitation exceeds 150 mm, and it can be over 250 mm in the late-century period. For the entire province, the maximum five-day precipitation increase relative to the historical period is nearly 25 mm in the late-century SSP5-8.5 scenario. The spatiotemporal concentration of precipitation will significantly increase, heightening the risk of flood disasters. Comparative analysis reveals that, under the same population prediction, the total population exposure will be higher in high radiative forcing scenarios than in low radiative forcing scenarios, especially in Kaifeng City, where the total population exposure in SSP1 and SSP5-8.5 exceeds that in SSP1-2.6 by 2 million person-days. However, in the same radiative forcing scenario, the total population exposure in the development pathway dominated by traditional fossil fuels (SSP5) will not be significantly higher than that in the sustainable development pathway (SSP1), indicating that population activity in this century will not be the main contributor to changes in total exposure. Overall, for Henan, in the same population forecast scenario, population exposure to extreme precipitation will gradually rise with global warming. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events over China)
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