Special Issue "Assessment, Simulations, and Prediction of Climate Extremes"

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Climatology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: 31 December 2023 | Viewed by 755

Special Issue Editor

Key Laboratory of Groundwater Conservation of MWR, School of Water Resources and Environment, China University of Geosciences (Beijing), Beijing 100083, China
Interests: hydrological modelling; climate extremes; drought; uncertainty analysis

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

The world is living through climate change, and some of that evidence comes from computer models, from improved physical understanding of various planetary processes, and from direct observations of the way in which the world has changed thus far. A wide range of climate extreme events have occurred, causing deep global concern. Some typical examples of such events are the European heatwaves in 2010, 2015, 2017, and 2019; the Amazon droughts in 2010; the UK storm in early 2014; the extremely heavy rainfall in China in 2021; and the flood in Pakistan in 2022. What is more, the rarer the event, the higher the likelihood that it will become more frequent under the condition of continuous temperature rise in the future.

The Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC warns that, even at 1.5 °C warming, we will witness climate extreme events, such as heavy rainfalls, floods, heatwaves, droughts, etc., that are more severe than any that have been observed before. This is true at a global level as well as a regional one. Climate extremes will probably become more variable within seasons, years, and regions. Assessment, simulations, and prediction of climate extremes play a crucial role in understanding and mitigating the impacts of climate change.

For this Special Issue, we welcome papers that focus on the assessment, simulations, and prediction of climate extremes. Contributions include but are not limited to:

  • Drought and flood assessment, simulations, and predictions
  • New modelling approaches of climate extremes
  • Climate extremes modelling using big data or multisource data
  • Uncertainties in modelling and prediction of climate extremes

Dr. Zhanling Li
Guest Editor

Manuscript Submission Information

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Keywords

  • climate extremes
  • flood
  • drought
  • climate change
  • heavy rainfall
  • hydrological modelling
  • uncertainty analysis
  • big data

Published Papers (1 paper)

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Research

23 pages, 9310 KiB  
Article
Projection and Analysis of Floods in the Upper Heihe River Basin under Climate Change
Atmosphere 2023, 14(7), 1083; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14071083 - 28 Jun 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 575
Abstract
The projection of future hydrological processes can provide insights into the risks associated with potential hydrological events in a changing environment and help develop strategies to cope with and prevent them. The Heihe River basin in Northwest China is crucial for providing water [...] Read more.
The projection of future hydrological processes can provide insights into the risks associated with potential hydrological events in a changing environment and help develop strategies to cope with and prevent them. The Heihe River basin in Northwest China is crucial for providing water resources to water-scarce regions. Thus, understanding the future runoff trends in the context of climate change can optimize water allocation, alleviate water shortages, and mitigate flood risks in the region. In this study, we use meteorological data from 10 general circulation models under two future scenarios to drive the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and project hydrological processes in the upper Heihe River basin from 2026 to 2100. After examining the future changes in total runoff in the basin, we assess the magnitude, frequency, and timing of daily flood events in the future. The results of the multi-model ensemble averaging (MMEA) method show that the change in the multi-year average annual runoff is −4.5% (2026–2050), −1.8% (2051–2075), and +2.0% (2076–2100) under the SSP245 scenario and −1.0% (2026–2050), +0.4% (2051–2075), and +0.2% (2076–2100) under the SSP585 scenario compared to the historical period. The analysis of flood magnitudes indicates that the basin will experience higher-magnitude floods in the future, with the largest increase rates of 61.9% and 66.4% for the 1-day maximum flows under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. The flood return period is projected to be shorter in the future, and the 1-day maximum flows of a 100-year flood are expected to increase by 44.7% and 63.7% under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, a significant shift in the flood timing is expected, with the highest frequency moving from July to August, representing a one-month lag compared to the historical period. Our findings suggest that the hydrological characteristics of the upper Heihe River basin may be significantly altered in the future due to the effects of climate change, resulting in floods with higher magnitudes and frequencies and different timings. Therefore, it is imperative to consider these changes carefully when developing risk prevention measures. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Assessment, Simulations, and Prediction of Climate Extremes)
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