Improving the Understanding, Diagnostics, and Prediction of Precipitation (2nd Volume)

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 November 2023) | Viewed by 5513

Special Issue Editors

Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada
Interests: cyclone–cyclone interactions; precipitation; diagnoses of missed and false alarmed high-impact events; coupled atmospheric-hydrological processes; variational computation of boundary layer flux; regional-scale climate trend and variability; atmospheric modeling
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, NM 88002, USA
Interests: mesoscale meteorology; radar meteorology; nowcasting; NWP model data assimilation and verification
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China
Interests: mesoscale meteorology; precipitation modeling and quantitative analysis; tropical cyclone dynamics
Special Issues, Collections and Topics in MDPI journals

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

After successfully launching the first volume of this Special Issue (“Improving the Understanding, Diagnostics, and Prediction of Precipitation”: https://www.mdpi.com/journal/atmosphere/special_issues/Prediction_Precipitation), we decided to expand our Special Issue into a second volume because numerous scholars have expressed their interest.

Heavy precipitation has a considerable impact on our society and economic systems, but it is challenging to predict accurately in terms of precipitation intensity, timing, and location. Considerable research performed in the past several decades made some incremental improvements in precipitation forecast. However, heavy precipitation remains one of the least understood meteorological phenomena in scientific and operational communities due to the involvement of multi-scale dynamic and thermodynamic processes associated with precipitating weather systems.  

An understanding of physical processes, weather systems and their interactions leading to heavy precipitation at various temporal and spatial scales is fundamental to improve the detection and prediction of severe precipitation. This in turn facilitates accurate public or severe weather warnings. Therefore, this Special Issue aims to advance our knowledge of these processes, systems, and their interactions and to build a bridge between academics and application to improve the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP) in precipitation forecasting—especially heavy precipitation associated with high-impact weather. These goals can be achieved by developing innovative theories, diagnostic methods, numerical approaches, and verification techniques. Insightful diagnoses are usually expected to provide guidance on why an NWP model makes a right or wrong prediction and which physical processes are key to a successful forecast. Given the challenges in quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), an alternative approach is required to anticipate large-scale environments favorable for the development of heavy precipitation and its associated conditions in a climate context. Topics for this Special Issue include, but are not limited to, the following:

  1. Precipitating weather systems;
  2. Upright and slantwise convection;
  3. Planetary boundary layer (PBL) and sensible and latent heat flux;
  4. Parametrizations in (coupled) numerical weather prediction (NWP) models;
  5. (Coupled) NWP model quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF);
  6. Precipitation nowcasting;
  7. Post-processing for QPF;
  8. Verification of QPF against observations;
  9. Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) based on radar and satellite;
  10. Diagnostic methods for QPF;
  11. NWP model microphysical, thermodynamic and dynamic processes related to precipitation;
  12. Atmospheric water balance;
  13. High-impact precipitation events;
  14. Regional-scale precipitation trend and variability.

Dr. Zuohao Cao
Dr. Huaqing Cai
Dr. Xiaofan Li
Guest Editors

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Keywords

  • cyclone, vortex, monsoon, tornado
  • convection
  • PBL, sensible and latent heat flux
  • parameterization
  • QPF
  • QPE
  • verification
  • diagnosis
  • high-impact events
  • regional-scale precipitation climate

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

14 pages, 2637 KiB  
Article
Evaluation of an Alternative Functional Form to Fit the Lorenz Curve for the Concentration Index Calculation
by Gerardo Núñez-González, Domingo Velázquez-Pérez and Francisco Javier Pelayo-Cortés
Atmosphere 2023, 14(12), 1720; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14121720 - 23 Nov 2023
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 566
Abstract
Precipitation concentration indices have become a popular tool for analyzing the structure of daily precipitation amounts. Among the existing indices, the concentration index (CI) is widely used. In calculating the CI, an important aspect is adjusting the Lorenz curve based on the observed [...] Read more.
Precipitation concentration indices have become a popular tool for analyzing the structure of daily precipitation amounts. Among the existing indices, the concentration index (CI) is widely used. In calculating the CI, an important aspect is adjusting the Lorenz curve based on the observed precipitation data. Usually, the fit has been carried out with equations of the type y = axebx. However, in some research work, it has been observed that sometimes, the fit obtained only partially describes the behavior of the data. Thus, this work evaluated an alternative functional form to fit the Lorenz curve. For this, daily precipitation data from 44 climatological stations in Mexico were used to assess two equations for adjusting the Lorenz curve. Once the fit was made, the goodness of fit was evaluated to determine which of the functional forms best described the behavior of the data. Results showed that the two functional forms produced similar results for low precipitation concentrations. However, when the concentration increased, the alternative functional form generated results following the behavior of the observations. Thus, it is recommended to use the alternative functional form to avoid overestimations of the concentration of daily precipitation in areas where it is known that a high concentration occurs. Full article
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29 pages, 22220 KiB  
Article
On the Mechanisms of a Snowstorm Associated with a Low-Level Cold Front and Low-Level Jet in the Western Mountainous Region of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China
by Xiaoning He, Abuduwaili Abulikemu, Ali Mamtimin, Ruqi Li, Aerzuna Abulimiti, Dawei An, Mangsuer Aireti, Yaman Zhou, Qi Sun, Zhiyi Li, Lin Yuan and Tao Xi
Atmosphere 2023, 14(6), 919; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14060919 - 24 May 2023
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1048
Abstract
Snowstorms frequently hit large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and their causative factors have been drawing increasing attention in recent years. As the first in-depth study on the mechanisms of a snowstorm associated with a low-level cold front (LLCF) and low-level westerly jet [...] Read more.
Snowstorms frequently hit large parts of the Northern Hemisphere, and their causative factors have been drawing increasing attention in recent years. As the first in-depth study on the mechanisms of a snowstorm associated with a low-level cold front (LLCF) and low-level westerly jet (LLWJ) in the western mountainous region of the Junggar Basin, Xinjiang, based on both observations and numerical simulation, the major findings of this work are as follows: At the early stage, instabilities were mainly dominated by inertial instability (II) occurring near the core region of the LLWJ, while the lower level was mainly controlled by the baroclinic component of moist potential vorticity (MPV2), which was mainly contributed by the vertical shear of the horizontal wind, which is also located near the LLWJ. At the later stage, II was released significantly, whereas the MPV2 still supported snowfall clouds. Further analysis based on the decomposition of the frontogenetical forcing required for the release of the instabilities indicated that the slantwise term was the major contributor, whereas convergence and deformation also played significant roles at low levels above the windward slope. The slantwise term resulted from the combined effects of baroclinicity due to the LLCF and the inhomogeneity of the momentum due to the LLWJ. Full article
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17 pages, 3741 KiB  
Article
Estimation and Analysis of Seasonal Rainfall Distribution and Potential of Türkiye and Its 25 Main Watersheds
by Hasan Hüseyin Aksu
Atmosphere 2023, 14(5), 800; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050800 - 27 Apr 2023
Viewed by 1039
Abstract
In this study, the seasonal rainfall distribution in Türkiye and its 25 main watersheds were estimated, and potentials were calculated and analyzed. Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods were applied in interpolations. The calculations were made through EBK, which provided [...] Read more.
In this study, the seasonal rainfall distribution in Türkiye and its 25 main watersheds were estimated, and potentials were calculated and analyzed. Empirical Bayesian kriging (EBK) and ordinary kriging (OK) methods were applied in interpolations. The calculations were made through EBK, which provided the highest estimation accuracy in all seasons. In winter, which is the season with the highest rainfall, Türkiye’s rainfall depth is 208.8 mm, and its volume is 162.87 billion m3. In summer, the season with the lowest rainfall, Türkiye’s rainfall depth is 61.7 mm, and its volume is 48.13 billion m3. The watersheds with the highest rainfall depth are Antalya (480.1 mm) in winter, Ceyhan (222.8 mm) in spring, and East Black Sea in summer (197.5 mm) and autumn (299.7 mm). Conversely, the watersheds with the lowest precipitation depth are Aras (74.9 mm) in winter, Little Meander (16.5 mm) in summer, and Konya in spring (131.3 mm) and autumn (86.2 mm). In summer, rainfall shortage is observed in all watersheds in the Central and Southern parts of Türkiye. As we go from the north to the south, the watersheds’ seasonal rainfall depths and shares become more irregular and variable. Full article
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44 pages, 17776 KiB  
Article
Extreme Temperature and Rainfall Events and Future Climate Change Projections in the Coastal Savannah Agroecological Zone of Ghana
by Johnson Ankrah, Ana Monteiro and Helena Madureira
Atmosphere 2023, 14(2), 386; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos14020386 - 15 Feb 2023
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2193
Abstract
The global climate has changed, and there are concerns about the effects on both humans and the environment, necessitating more research for improved adaptation. In this study, we analyzed extreme temperature and rainfall events and projected future climate change scenarios for the coastal [...] Read more.
The global climate has changed, and there are concerns about the effects on both humans and the environment, necessitating more research for improved adaptation. In this study, we analyzed extreme temperature and rainfall events and projected future climate change scenarios for the coastal Savannah agroecological zone (CSAZ) of Ghana. We utilized the ETCCDI, the RClimDex software (version 1.0), the Mann–Kendall test, Sen’s slope estimator, and standardized anomalies to analyze homogeneity, trends, magnitude, and seasonal variations in temperature (Tmax and Tmin) and rainfall datasets for the zone. The SDSM was also used to downscale future climate change scenarios based on the CanESM2 (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios) and HadCM3 (A2 and B2 scenarios) models for the zone. Model performance was evaluated using statistical methods such as R2, RMSE, and PBIAS. Results revealed more changepoints in Tmin than in Tmax and rainfall. Results again showed that the CSAZ has warmed over the last four decades. The SU25, TXn, and TN90p have increased significantly in the zone, and the opposite is the case for the TN10p and DTR. Spatially varied trends were observed for the TXx, TNx, TNn, TX10p, TX90p, and the CSDI across the zone. The decrease in RX1day, RX5day, SDII, R10, R95p, and R99p was significant in most parts of the central region compared to the Greater Accra and Volta regions, while the CDD significantly decreased in the latter two regions than in the former. The trends in CWD and PRCPTOT were insignificant throughout the zone. The overall performance of both models during calibration and validation was good and ranged from 58–99%, 0.01–1.02 °C, and 0.42–11.79 °C for R2, RMSE, and PBIAS, respectively. Tmax is expected to be the highest (1.6 °C) and lowest (−1.6 °C) across the three regions, as well as the highest (1.5 °C) and lowest (−1.6 °C) for the entire zone, according to both models. Tmin is projected to be the highest (1.4 °C) and lowest (−2.1 °C) across the three regions, as well as the highest (1.4 °C) and lowest (−2.3 °C) for the entire zone. The greatest (1.6 °C) change in mean annual Tmax is expected to occur in the 2080s under RCP8.5, while that of the Tmin (3.2 °C) is expected to occur in the 2050s under the same scenario. Monthly rainfall is expected to change between −98.4 and 247.7% across the three regions and −29.0 and 148.0% for the entire zone under all scenarios. The lowest (0.8%) and highest (79%) changes in mean annual rainfall are expected to occur in the 2030s and 2080s. The findings of this study could be helpful for the development of appropriate adaptation plans to safeguard the livelihoods of people in the zone. Full article
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